北领地前热带气旋“蒂法尼”(10U/06P.Tiffany) 热带气旋档案

OW An 2022-01-06 10:28:31 7036

90P INVEST 220106 0000 11.1S 143.1E SHEM 15 1010

最后于 2022-01-18 13:09:51 被哼哼唧唧编辑 ,原因:
最新回复 (10)
  • 哼哼唧唧 管理员 2022-01-06 13:08:50
    0 引用 2

  • 哼哼唧唧 管理员 2022-01-08 19:14:17
    0 引用 3

  • hhhh DG 2022-01-09 12:20:57
    0 引用 4
    SH, 90, 2022010900,   , BEST,   0, 140S, 1473E,  30, 1001, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1006,  150,  45,   0,   0,   P,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M, 
  • hhhh DG 2022-01-09 15:08:47
    0 引用 5
    SH, 06, 2022010906,   , BEST,   0, 139S, 1467E,  35,  999, TS,  34, NEQ,   40,   55,   60,   55, 1004,  135,  25,   0,   0,   P,   0,    ,   0,   0,        SIX, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, TRANSITIONED, shC02022 to sh062022,
  • 哼哼唧唧 管理员 2022-01-09 21:45:08
    0 引用 6

                           UW - CIMSS                     
                  ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                        ADT-Version 9.0                
             Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

                 ----- Current Analysis ----- 
         Date :  09 JAN 2022    Time :   131000 UTC
          Lat :   13:55:15 S     Lon :  145:53:48 E

         
                    CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                    3.0 / 1000mb /  45kts

         
                 Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                    3.0     3.3     3.6

     Center Temp : -78.3C    Cloud Region Temp : -76.9C

     Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION 

     Subtropical Adjustment : OFF 

     Extratropical Adjustment : OFF 

     Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION 

     Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC  
     Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method  

     Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
                       Weakening Flag : OFF   
               Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

     C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
      - Average 34 knot radii :   57nmi
      - Environmental MSLP    : 1009mb

     Satellite Name :   HIM-8 
     Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.4 degrees

  • 哼哼唧唧 管理员 2022-01-09 22:00:39
    0 引用 7

    Details of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany at 10:00 pm AEST:

    Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
    Location: within 35 kilometres of 13.9 degrees South, 145.9 degrees East , 190 kilometres north northeast of Cooktown and 305 kilometres east southeast of Lockhart River .
    Movement: west at 14 kilometres per hour .

    Tropical cyclone Tiffany continues to strengthen as it approaches the far north Queensland coast, and is now a category 2 cyclone. Landfall is expected between Cooktown and Lockhart River, with the timing dependent on whether Tiffany moves south or north of Cape Melville.

    Tiffany will weaken slightly over land but may maintain tropical cyclone strength as it moves westward across the Cape. The system is then expected to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Tuesday and re-intensify quickly as it moves towards the Northern Territory coast. A severe tropical cyclone coastal impact on the Northern Territory coast is possible on Wednesday or Thursday.

     

    Hazards:

    GALES with gusts to 110 km/h will develop between Cape Tribulation and Coen, including Cooktown, early Monday as Tiffany approaches the coast. These GALES may extend north to Cape Grenville, including Lockhart River, and inland, including Palmerville, later on Monday.

    DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 130 km/h are expected later on Monday as the centre of the cyclone makes landfall.

    GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may extend westward across Cape York Peninsula between Gilbert River Mouth and Mapoon, including Weipa, and Pormpuraaw, on Tuesday.


    HEAVY RAINFALL is expected to develop in parts of the warning area tonight and extend westward as the system moves across Cape York Peninsula. Widespread 24 hour totals of 100 to 150mm are expected, with isolated 24 hour totals of 200 to 250mm possible.

    As the system crosses the coast, ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected between Cape Tribulation and Lockhart River, but the sea level should not exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely along the beachfront. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are also expected on the western Cape York Peninsula during Tuesday and Wednesday.

  • 哼哼唧唧 管理员 2022-01-09 22:32:25
    0 引用 8
    SH, 06, 2022010912,   , BEST,   0, 139S, 1460E,  50,  995, TS,  50, NEQ,   25,   25,   20,   20, 1007,  120,  15,   0,   0,   P,   0,    ,   0,   0,    TIFFANY, M,
  • 哼哼唧唧 管理员 2022-01-10 13:04:16
    0 引用 9

    核心擦到大分水岭缩小了很多

  • 哼哼唧唧 管理员 2022-01-11 08:20:44
    0 引用 10

    The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

    Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

    This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.


    Headline:
    Ex-Tropical Cyclone Tiffany has moved into the Gulf of Carpentaria where it is expected to redevelop. Cyclone Warning now current for the eastern Northern Territory coast.


    Areas affected:
    Warning zone: Nhulunbuy to NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt, Numbulwar, Port Roper, and Port McArthur..

    Watch zone: Adjacent inland areas extending west to Barunga and Mataranka..

    Cancelled zones: None.


    Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Tiffany at 6:30 am ACST:
    Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
    Location: within 30 kilometres of 14.3 degrees South, 141.3 degrees East , 70 kilometres north northwest of Pormpuraaw and 515 kilometres east of Groote Eylandt .
    Movement: west northwest at 17 kilometres per hour .

    NOTE: Advice updated to correct headline text
    Ex-Tropical Cyclone Tiffany has moved into the Gulf of Carpentaria where it is expected to begin redeveloping today while tracking steadily westward. On Wednesday morning it will approach the eastern Northern Territory coast where category 2 tropical cyclone impacts are possible.

     

返回
发新帖