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已升08B
JTWC分析T2.0 SSD分析T2.5
TXIO22 KNES 030032
TCSNIOA. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95B)
B. 02/2330Z
C. 11.0N
D. 82.8E
E. FIVE/MET-9
F. T2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET AGREES BASED
ON A SLOW DEVELOPMENT 24 HOUR TREND. THE PT ALSO AGREES. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE DT.I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...BROWNTPIO10 PGTW 030018
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95B (NE OF SRI LANKA)
B. 02/2330Z
C. 11.30N
D. 82.52E
E. FIVE/GOES-IO
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT YIELD 2.5. DBO DTI. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/1948Z 11.45N 82.55E ATMS
GOYETTE
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WTIO31 PGTW 030900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 11.8N 82.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 82.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 12.6N 82.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 13.5N 81.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 14.5N 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 15.4N 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 17.0N 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 18.7N 82.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 82.5E. 03DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030600Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.// NNNN
WDIO31 PGTW 030900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 11.8N 82.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 725 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 030036Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, INDICATES IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 030430Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER AND 30-35 KNOT WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-B DATA AS WELL AS THE PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 030700Z CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 030700Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24 WITH A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN THROUGH TAU 36. TC 08B IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO NORTHERN INDIA, WHICH WILL ERODE AND REORIENT THE STR INTO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION. TC 08B WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF INDIA WITH LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 08B WILL RECURVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND AND ENCOUNTERS THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND STRONG VWS (20 KNOTS AT TAU 48 TO 45 KNOTS AT TAU 96). AFTER THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES NEAR TAU 96, THE REMNANTS MAY TRACK BACK OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE DUE TO THE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 115 NM AT TAU 48 DIVERGING TO 165NM AT TAU 72 LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A VERY LARGE SPREAD. THE 021800Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BUT SHOWS FOUR SOLUTIONS TRACKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF INDIA WITH HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY. THE 030000Z GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) INDICATES A SMALL NUMBER (LOW PROBABILITY) OF SOLUTIONS WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AND PROLONGED PERIOD OVER WATER. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 45 TO 50 KNOTS WITH HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC (BOTH GFS AND NAVGEM VERSIONS) INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW) REVEALS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE JTWC PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS MAINTAINED BASED ON THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS FURTHER BOLSTERED BY THE TRIGGERING OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE AND THE 030000Z COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) ENSEMBLE, WHICH INDICATES A 40 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAPID INTENSICATION THROUGH TAU 18. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-03 18:00:05 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
孟加拉湾气旋风暴“米昌”生成
时 间：3日14时（北京时）
海 域：孟加拉湾
命 名：“米昌”，MICHAUNG
中心位置：北纬11.7度、东经82.4度
强度等级：气旋风暴
最大风力：8级（18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：998百帕
参考位置：印度金奈东偏南方向约280公里的洋面上
变化过程：“米昌”生成并加强到8级
预报结论：“米昌”将以每小时12公里左右的速度向西北方向移动，逐渐向印度东部沿海靠近，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月03日14时00分）
图2 孟加拉湾气旋风暴“米昌”未来72小时路径概率预报图
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IMD调高上望至SCS
FKIN21 VIDP 030802
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20231203/0600Z
TC: MICHAUNG
NR: 06
PSN: N1148 E08212
MOV: NW05KT
INTST CHANGE: NC
C: 0998HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN 06HR: 03/1200Z N1212 E08154
FCST MAX WIND 06HRS: 40 KT
FCST PSN 12HR: 03/1800Z N1236 E08130
FCST MAX WIND 12HRS: 45 KT
FCST PSN 18HR: 04/0000Z N1312 E08100
FCST MAX WIND 18HRS: 45 KT
FCST PSN 24HR: 04/0600Z N1348 E08036
FCST MAX WIND 24HRS: 50 KT
RMK: NIL
NEXT MSG: 20231203/1500Z
TOO: 031310HRS IST
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WTIO31 PGTW 031500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 12.4N 82.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 82.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 13.3N 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 14.2N 81.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 15.1N 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 16.0N 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 18.0N 82.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 19.2N 83.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 82.4E. 03DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 699 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031200Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.// NNNN
WDIO31 PGTW 031500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.4N 82.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 699 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AS DEPICTED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B HAS STEADILY CONSOLIDATED WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031143Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS). IN GENERAL, CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES (ADT, AIDT, DPRINT, DMINT) RANGE FROM 36 TO 41 KNOTS SUPPORTING THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OTHER CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 031230Z CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 031230Z CIMSS DPRINT: 40 KTS AT 031300Z CIMSS DMINT: 36 KTS AT 031146Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TC 08B IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF INDIA NEAR TAU 48, TC O8B WILL SLOWLY RECURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHERN INDIA ERODING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND AND ENCOUNTERS VIGOROUS MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG VWS (20 KNOTS AT TAU 60 TO 45 KNOTS AT TAU 84). AFTER THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES NEAR TAU 96, THE REMNANTS MAY TRACK BACK OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE DUE TO THE HOSTILE UPPER- LEVEL CONDITIONS. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 70 NM AT TAU 48 DIVERGING TO 115NM AT TAU 72 LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A VERY LARGE SPREAD. THE 030600Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) AND GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) ALSO INDICATE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK WITH SOLUTIONS EVENLY SPREAD AROUND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK INCLUDING SOME SOLUTIONS TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER WATER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF INDIA. THE LATEST HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC RUNS INDICATE A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 50 TO 55 KNOTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW) REVEALS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE JTWC PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS MAINTAINED BASED ON THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS FURTHER BOLSTERED BY THE TRIGGERING OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 030600Z COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) ENSEMBLE, WHICH INDICATES A 100 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR MODERATE INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 18. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-04 05:00:03 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO31 PGTW 032100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 12.9N 81.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 81.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 13.7N 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 14.7N 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 15.6N 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 16.6N 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 18.3N 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 81.7E. 03DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 693 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z. // NNNN
WDIO31 PGTW 032100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.9N 81.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 693 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES TO THE NORTH AND WEST STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN COHESION AS THEY PASS OVER MAINLAND INDIA. A 031536Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES CAN BE SEEN AROUND THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 031539Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A BELT OF 35-40 KT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR, AMSU-B AND ASCAT DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PREPONDERANCE OF AUTOMATED AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING 45KTS, FURTHER REINFORCED BY THE PARTIAL ASCAT PASS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 031500Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL MARCH TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN INDIA IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FUELED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SSTS AND STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, 08B IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY TO ROUGHLY 60KTS. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AXIS OF THE STR, IT WILL BEGIN TO TURN DUE NORTH AND JUST AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN INDIA NEAR 55KTS. NEAR TAU 48, AS 08B CONTINUES INLAND, VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE AND 08B WEAKENS TO AROUND 40KTS. AFTER TAU 48, TOPOGRAPHY BECOMES A MAJOR OBSTACLE AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO TRAVERSE THE EASTERN GHATS WHICH FURTHER WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AND RESULTS IN ITS EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING A 100NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS TREND WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, THOUGH COAMPS-TC AND NVGM INDICATE A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH DISSIPATION. FOR THESE REASONS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24 AFTER WHICH A GRADUAL DECLINE THAT WORSENS WITH LANDFALL UNTIL DISSIPATION. FOR THESE REASONS, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-04 05:00:03 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：