孟加拉湾强气旋风暴“米昌”(BOB 06/08B.Michaung) 北印度洋

W ygsj24 2023-11-30 20:00:00 3166

99W INVEST 231122 0000 5.2N 109.5E WPAC 15 1009


95B INVEST 231128 0600 4.4N 93.9E IO 20 1007

最后于 2024-01-25 09:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ,原因:
最新回复 (35)
  • ygsj24 W 2023-11-30 20:10:00
    0 引用 2
    ABPW10 PGTW 221100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
    PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/221100Z-230600ZNOV2023//
    RMKS/
    1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
       A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
       B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
          (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.9N
    110.8E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED
    MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING OBSCURED
    BY PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION. A 220627Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
    CAPTURED FORMATIVE BANDS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
    PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL
    ANALYSIS INDICATES 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
    WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT
    AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
    AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
    AND, THOUGH OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, THE LACK OF A DISTINCT,
    CONSOLIDATED LLCC AT THIS TIME WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
    DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17
    KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
    POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
          (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
       C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
       A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
       B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
       C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
    NNNN


    ABPW10 PGTW 231500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
    PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/231500Z-240600ZNOV2023//
    RMKS/
    1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
       A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
       B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
          (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
    6.2N 109.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 108.6E, APPROXIMATELY 624 NM EAST OF
    PHUKET. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231033Z SSMIS
    91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
    FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE
    CIRCULATION IS LOCATED ADJACENT TO A 20-25 KNOT NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT.
    ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
    FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
    MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
    48 HOURS BUT DISAGREE ON DEVELOPMENT. GFS HAS 99W CONTINUING TO DEEPEN
    BEFORE CROSSING THE MALAY PENINSULA WHILE ECMWF HAS VERY LITTLE IN TERMS
    OF INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
    TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
    THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
          (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
       C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
       A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
       B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
       C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
    NNNN


    ABPW10 PGTW 240600
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
    PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZNOV2023//
    RMKS/
    1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
       A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
       B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
          (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
    6.0N 108.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.1N 107.8E, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM EAST-
    SOUTHEAST OF PHUKET. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
    BROAD AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTIVE
    BURSTS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. A 240239Z
    ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS 5-15 KT WINDS AROUND THE LLC WITH STRONGER 25-30 KT
    WINDS 160 NM TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE NORTHEAST SURGE. ENVIRONMENTAL
    ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 99W IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
    DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS)
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES. GLOBAL
    MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM
    FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
    TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
    THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
          (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
       C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
       A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
       B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
       C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
    NNNN


    ABPW10 PGTW 260030
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
    PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/260030Z-260600ZNOV2023//
    RMKS/
    1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
       A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
       B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
          (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
    4.4N 106.5E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
    OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
          (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
       C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
       A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
       B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
       C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
    NNNN

    ABIO10 PGTW 290300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
    REISSUED/290300Z-291800ZNOV2023//
    RMKS/
    1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
       A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
       B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
          (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N
    91.6E, APPROXIMATELY 857 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
    MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 282342Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
    SERIES SHOW A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH ROBUST DEEP
    CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR. THERE IS ALSO DEVELOPING
    CURVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE CIRCULATION
    EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHWEST TIP OF SUMATRA. THE LLC IS
    BROAD AND RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE. THE SYSTEM EXISTS IN THE LONE
    FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ENTIRE THEATRE, WITH EXTENSIVE
    DIVERGENCE OVER THE ENTIRE BAY OF BENGAL. THE MADDEN JULIAN
    OSCILLATION THAT HAS BEEN MOSTLY NON-EXISTENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
    WEEKS HAS RISEN FROM THE DEAD OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ANOMALOUS
    WESTERLIES ARE INCREASING ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  
    STEADY EASTERLIES OVER THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAVE SURGED
    ACROSS THE MALAY PENINSULA, MAKING FOR A DISCERNABLE MONSOON TROF
    THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF SRI LANKA TO THE NORTHWEST
    TIP OF SUMATRA.  ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW A STEADY
    INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION OF MOIST GRADIENT LEVEL FLOW.  ENSEMBLE
    MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A CLEAR AND STEADY TREND TOWARD DEVELOPMENT,
    WITH THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN NEAR THE 90TH
    MERIDIAN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
    LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
    TEMPERATURES, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND A STEADY SIGNAL INCREASE
    IN THE 850 MB VORTICITY CHART. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A STEADY
    NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 95B WITH A STEADY DEVELOPMENT CYCLE AS
    IT TRACKS FURTHER INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
    MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
    POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
          (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
       C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
       A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
       B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
       C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
    NNNN


    还有-9条回复,登录后查看更多!

  • Lupit DG 2023-12-01 11:19:48
    0 引用 3
    ABIO10 PGTW 010300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
    REISSUED/010300Z-011800ZDEC2023//
    RMKS/
    1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
       A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
       B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
          (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
    8.7N 86.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 86.3E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-
    SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
    AND A 010142Z GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 
    PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED BANDS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE 
    EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION HAS GROWN IN COVERAGE 
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MONSOON 
    TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL FROM THE SOUTH OF SRI LANKA TO 
    THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF SUMATRA, ENHANCED BY THE MADDEN-JULIAN 
    OSCILLATION (MJO). A 301500Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS DEPICTS A BELT OF 
    SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM 
    WRAPPING AROUND TO EASTERLY WINDS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
    ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL 
    WINDSHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE UPPER-
    LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
    95B WILL TRACK STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE 
    NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
    23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. 
    THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
          (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
       C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
       A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
       B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
       C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM//
    NNNN


    最后于 2023-12-01 11:50:32 被Lupit编辑 ,原因:
  • ygsj24 W 2023-12-02 04:10:05
    0 引用 4
    WTIO21 PGTW 011500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95B)//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7N 86.2E TO 16.1N 80.9E
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 120112Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 10.3N 85.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
    9.4N 86.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 85.6E, APPROXIMATELY 352NM EAST-
    SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
    011316Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH  
    DEEP, CONSOLIDATING BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL 
    CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
    FOR INTENSIFICATION AS REFLECTED BY LOW (10-15KT) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SST, 
    AND GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT OF A 
    NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO 
    CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
    KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
    POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
    NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
    021500Z.//
    NNNN



  • 普鲁士藍_ B 2023-12-02 07:49:59
    0 引用 5

  • Meow DG 2023-12-02 22:52:11
    0 引用 6

    继续TCFA

    THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 85.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 83.4E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021255Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95B IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95B WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

    最后于 2023-12-02 23:41:35 被Meow编辑 ,原因:
    上传的附件:
  • 柳絮因风起 MG 2023-12-02 23:08:23
    0 引用 7

    JTWC和SSD均分析T2.0/2.0

    TPIO10 PGTW 021452

     

    A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95B (NE OF SRI LANKA)

     

    B. 02/1430Z

     

    C. 10.97N

     

    D. 82.76E

     

    E. FIVE/GOES-IO

     

    F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

     

    G. IR/EIR

     

    H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD

    LINES LOCATED NEAR COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT

    AGREE. DBO DT.

     

    I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:

    02/1157Z 11.08N 83.32E SSMS

    02/1254Z 11.18N 83.15E SSMS

     

     

    PETERSEN

     


    TXIO22 KNES 021220 TCSNIO

     

    A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95B)

     

    B. 02/1130Z

     

    C. 10.7N

     

    D. 83.3E

     

    E. THREE/MET-9

     

    F. T2.0/2.0

     

    G. IR/EIR/VIS

     

    H. REMARKS...3.5/10 BANDING SUGGESTS A DT=2.0. THE MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET SINCE CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR-CUT.

     

    I. ADDL POSITIONS NIL ...

    LEE

    最后于 2023-12-03 01:26:04 被柳絮因风起编辑 ,原因:
  • 柳絮因风起 MG 2023-12-02 23:22:49
    0 引用 8

     

    HERF预测巅峰约982

    集系

  • yhh DG 2023-12-02 23:41:01
    0 引用 9

    WTIO21 PGTW 021500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95B) REISSUED//
    REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011451ZDEC2023//
    AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    060 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9N 83.6E TO 12.9N 81.9E
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 021430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 11.1N 83.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
    NEAR 10.3N 85.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 83.4E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM 
    EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
    IMAGERY AND A 021255Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE AREA 
    OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO AN 
    OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
    INDICATES THAT 95B IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
    ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 
    WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
    AGREEMENT THAT 95B WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP 
    OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
    AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
    1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
    CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A 
    (WTIO21 PGTW 011500).
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
    031500Z.//
    NNNN

     

    上传的附件:
  • ygsj24 W 2023-12-03 10:08:22
    0 引用 10
    WTIO31 PGTW 030300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001//
    REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021451DEC2023//
    AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001    
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       030000Z --- NEAR 11.5N 82.5E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 82.5E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       031200Z --- 12.3N 81.8E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       040000Z --- 13.2N 81.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       041200Z --- 14.1N 80.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       050000Z --- 15.2N 80.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       060000Z --- 17.0N 80.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       070000Z --- 18.3N 81.8E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
        ---
       120 HRS, VALID AT:
       080000Z --- 19.7N 84.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    030300Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 82.3E.
    03DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162
    NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
    NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
    030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
    2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 021500)//
    NNNN


    WDIO31 PGTW 030300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (EIGHT) WARNING NR 
    001//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 11.5N 82.5E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 162 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    TC 08W HAS GATHERED ITSELF AND CONSOLIDATED UPSTREAM OF THE
    SOUTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. THE SYSTEM DEVELOPED SLOWLY OVER THE
    PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO STIMULATION FROM A PEAKING PHASE THREE OF THE
    MJO.  WITHOUT THE BOOST FROM THE MJO THE SYSTEM WOULD NOT LIKELY
    HAVE DEEPENED BEYOND DEPRESSION STATUS. BUT OVER THE PAST FOUR
    HOURS CONVECTION DEEPENED AND TIGHTENED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), LEAVING A BROAD DOUGHNUT HOLE THAT LENDS
    CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE POSITION AND DVORAK ASSESSMENTS. THE
    INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON DVORAKS AND INFERRED FROM SURFACE
    PRESSURE REPORTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF INDIA AS WELL AS MODEL
    FIELDS. TC 08B IS IN AN EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEPENING. ANIMATED
    WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SPECTACULAR OUTFLOW, WITH THE POLEWARD
    FLANK TAPPING INTO A VIGOROUS SUBTROPICAL JET THAT IS ARCHING OVER
    MYANMAR AND SOUTHERN CHINA.  EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO VIGOROUS.
    TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS FROM CIMSS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE IS NOW
    WRAPPING AROUND THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION AS WELL AS A BROAD BELT OF
    EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES CONTINUING TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM.
    THE ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE COAST IS COMPLETELY
    SATURATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE. 28 TO 29 DEGREE SEA WATER
    TEMPERATURES AND DECENT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES LIE ALONG TRACK
    UNDERNEATH LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) VALUES. WINDSHEAR INCREASES
    SHARPLY NORTH OF CHENNAI, BUT IN THE NEAR TERM, EVEN THOUGH THE
    SHEAR INCREASES NORTH OF THE 13TH LATITUDE, THE ENHANCED EXHAUST
    WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP FURTHER.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: AVERAGE DISTANCE TO BANDING FEATURES IN A
    022243Z SSMIS 37V. 
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM OVER RANGOON THROUGH THE
    VISAKHAPATNAM AREA. 
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
       PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
       VWS: 5-10 KTS
       SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B WILL TAKE A STEADY BEND
    TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, SKIRTING THE PONDICHERRY COAST WHILE
    DEEPENING THANKS TO A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL
    INTENSIFY FREELY UP UNTIL LAND INTERACTION BEGINS TO WEAR ON IT NEAR
    THE COAST. THE PARALLEL BEARING TO THE COAST AND THE LARGER THAN
    AVERAGE TRACK GUIDANCE SPREAD MAKE FOR LOWER CERTAINTY AS TO
    PRECISELY WHERE, AND AT WHAT INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM WILL COME
    ASHORE.  BUT HIGH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WINDS APPROACHING TYPHOON
    STRENGTH JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL ARE PLAUSIBLE. ONCE INLAND, THE
    SYSTEM WILL BEGIN RAPID DECAY, BUT THE RISK OF RE-EMERGENCE OVER
    THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL REMAINS POSSIBLE. EVEN IF TC O8B DOES
    TRACK BACK INTO THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL, HOWEVER, COOLER SEA
    WATER AND VERY HIGH VWS WILL CAP INTENSIFICATION MAKING
    RE-INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY. THE MUCH MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
    OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ASHORE NEAR 05DEC0600Z, NEAR ONGOLE, AND
    DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY 07DEC1200Z AS IT SHEARS AND CHOKES ON DRY
    MID-LEVEL AIR.  
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: ECMWF HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING GFS IN THIS CASE.
    GFS BEGAN WITH THE TRACK CURLING OVER BANGLADESH BUT HAS GRADUALLY
    WALKED WEST AND JOINED THE PACK. WITH THE LATEST RUNS ALL GUIDANCE
    IS INDICATING A LAND STRIKE BETWEEN CHENNAI AND VISAKHAPATNAM, WITH
    DECAY OVER THE SUBCONTINENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE.  TRACK
    GUIDANCE IS FINE THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS BUT AFTER THAT THERE IS
    A SIGNIFICANT DROP-OFF DUE TO A LARGER-THAN-AVERAGE CROSS-TRACK
    SPREAD.  THE JTWC FORECAST LEANS INSIDE AND RIGHT OF CONSENSUS,
    FAVORING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND THE H-FAS. THOSE MODELS STEER THE
    STORM, OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT, BACK TO SEA NEAR THE 20TH LATITUDE
    AFTER THE END OF THE FIVE DAY FORECAST. THE TRACK ENDS JUST PRIOR
    TO THAT AND DISSIPATION OVER LAND REMAINS THE EXPECTATION. THE
    INTENSITY FORECAST GOES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS THROUGH
    LANDFALL IN CONSIDERATION OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THEN
    DECAYS THE STORM FASTER THAN GUIDANCE BASED ON THE OBSERVED
    TENDENCY OF THE GUIDANCE TO UNDER-FACTOR THE INFLUENCE OF THE
    RUGGED TERRAIN IN EASTERN INDIA. GUIDANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL AS
    THE STORM MATURES, GIVING HIGHER CERTAINTY.  
    
    
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    NNNN
    最后于 2023-12-03 12:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ,原因:
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