ABPW10 PGTW 221100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/221100Z-230600ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.9N
110.8E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING OBSCURED
BY PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION. A 220627Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
CAPTURED FORMATIVE BANDS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AND, THOUGH OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, THE LACK OF A DISTINCT,
CONSOLIDATED LLCC AT THIS TIME WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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ABPW10 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/231500Z-240600ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.2N 109.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 108.6E, APPROXIMATELY 624 NM EAST OF
PHUKET. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231033Z SSMIS
91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED ADJACENT TO A 20-25 KNOT NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS BUT DISAGREE ON DEVELOPMENT. GFS HAS 99W CONTINUING TO DEEPEN
BEFORE CROSSING THE MALAY PENINSULA WHILE ECMWF HAS VERY LITTLE IN TERMS
OF INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.0N 108.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.1N 107.8E, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PHUKET. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTIVE
BURSTS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. A 240239Z
ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS 5-15 KT WINDS AROUND THE LLC WITH STRONGER 25-30 KT
WINDS 160 NM TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE NORTHEAST SURGE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 99W IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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ABPW10 PGTW 260030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/260030Z-260600ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.4N 106.5E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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ABIO10 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/290300Z-291800ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N
91.6E, APPROXIMATELY 857 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 282342Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
SERIES SHOW A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH ROBUST DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR. THERE IS ALSO DEVELOPING
CURVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE CIRCULATION
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHWEST TIP OF SUMATRA. THE LLC IS
BROAD AND RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE. THE SYSTEM EXISTS IN THE LONE
FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ENTIRE THEATRE, WITH EXTENSIVE
DIVERGENCE OVER THE ENTIRE BAY OF BENGAL. THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION THAT HAS BEEN MOSTLY NON-EXISTENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS HAS RISEN FROM THE DEAD OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ANOMALOUS
WESTERLIES ARE INCREASING ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
STEADY EASTERLIES OVER THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAVE SURGED
ACROSS THE MALAY PENINSULA, MAKING FOR A DISCERNABLE MONSOON TROF
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF SRI LANKA TO THE NORTHWEST
TIP OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW A STEADY
INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION OF MOIST GRADIENT LEVEL FLOW. ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A CLEAR AND STEADY TREND TOWARD DEVELOPMENT,
WITH THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN NEAR THE 90TH
MERIDIAN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND A STEADY SIGNAL INCREASE
IN THE 850 MB VORTICITY CHART. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A STEADY
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 95B WITH A STEADY DEVELOPMENT CYCLE AS
IT TRACKS FURTHER INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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