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WTIO31 PGTW 040900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 13.4N 81.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 81.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 14.4N 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 15.4N 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 16.3N 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 17.3N 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 19.1N 82.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 81.0E. 04DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 691 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040600Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.// NNNN
WDIO31 PGTW 040900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.4N 81.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 691 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FORTUNATELY, RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED, BROAD LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A 040418Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT SUPPORTING THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 55 KNOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE A WIDE RANGE OF VALUES FROM T3.5 (55 KNOTS) TO T4.5 (77 KNOTS). CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES SHOW A MORE CONSISTENT, REALISTIC RANGE OF INTENSITY VALUES FROM 52 TO 53 KNOTS, WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 040600Z CIMSS AIDT: 52 KTS AT 040700Z CIMSS DPRINT: 52 KTS AT 040700Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, TC 08B WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SKIRTS THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED NEAR TAU 30. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND AND RECURVES NORTHEASTWARD, INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE REMNANTS COULD POSSIBLY TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER DAY 4 BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE DUE TO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND LANDFALL LOCATION, HOWEVER BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 60 NM TO 80 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THEREFORE, THERE IS MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS WORKED OUT WELL THUS FAR AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“米昌”将在印度安得拉邦东部沿海登陆
时 间：4日14时（北京时）
海 域：孟加拉湾
命 名：“米昌”，MICHAUNG
中心位置：北纬13.5度、东经81.1度
强度等级：强气旋风暴
最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：985百帕
参考位置：印度安得拉邦（Andhra pradesh）默吉利伯德纳姆（Machilipatnam）以南大约260公里的海面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“米昌”由8级加强到10级
预报结论：预计，“米昌”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向北偏西方向移动，将于5日下午在印度安得拉邦东部沿海登陆（强气旋风暴，10-11级，25-30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级），登陆后逐渐转向北偏东方向移动，强度逐渐减弱，6日减弱为深低压。
受“米昌”影响，4日晚上到6日，印度安得拉邦沿海，奥里萨邦沿海将有6-8级大风，“米昌”中心经过的附近海面或地区的风力可达9-11级，阵风可达11-13级；印度泰米尔纳德邦东北部、安得拉邦东部、奥里萨邦、恰蒂斯加尔邦、贾坎德邦、西孟加拉邦等地将有大到暴雨，其中安得拉邦东部和奥里萨邦的部分地区将有大暴雨，局地有特大暴雨（250-350毫米）。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月04日14时00分）
图2 孟加拉湾强气旋风暴“米昌”未来60小时路径概率预报图
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WTIO31 PGTW 041500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 13.8N 80.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 80.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 14.8N 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 15.7N 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 16.7N 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 17.9N 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 80.7E. 04DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 683 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.// NNNN
WDIO31 PGTW 041500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.8N 80.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 683 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AS DEPICTED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A FORMATIVE RAGGED EYE. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A 041226Z SSMIS 37 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A CYAN RING SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS INCREASED TO T4.0 (65 KNOTS). THE KNES FINAL-T ESTIMATE IS CURRENTLY AT T4.0 AS WELL (CURRENT INTENSITY IS AT 4.5 (77 KNOTS)). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 51 KNOTS TO 67 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 041030Z CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 041300Z CIMSS AIDT: 55 KTS AT 041300Z CIMSS DPRINT: 55 KTS AT 041300Z CIMSS DMINT: 67 KTS AT 041229Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, TC 08B WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SKIRTS THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED NEAR TAU 24. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND AND RECURVES NORTHEASTWARD, INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE REMNANTS COULD POSSIBLY TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER DAY 4 BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE DUE TO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. MODEL DISCUSSION: BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 35 NM CROSS- TRACK SPREAD IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-05 06:00:42 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO31 PGTW 042100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 14.3N 80.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 80.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 15.3N 79.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 16.3N 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 17.4N 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 80.1E. 04DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 74 NM NORTH OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK NEARLY PARALLELS THE INDIAN COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. SHOULD THE SYSTEM MOVE BACK OVER WATER, ADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041800Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 24 FEET.// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“米昌”即将在印度安得拉邦东部沿海登陆
时 间：5日08时（北京时）
海 域：孟加拉湾
命 名：“米昌”，MICHAUNG
中心位置：北纬15.0度、东经80.2度
强度等级：强气旋风暴
最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：985百帕
参考位置：印度帕纳吉偏东方向约670公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“米昌”强度变化不大
预报结论：“米昌”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向偏北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。将于5日下午在印度安得拉邦东部沿海登陆（气旋风暴或强气旋风暴，9-10级，23-25米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴或强热带风暴级），登陆后继续向偏北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱，6日减弱为深低压。
受“米昌”影响，5日下午至6日白天，印度安得拉邦沿海，奥里萨邦沿海将有6-8级大风，“米昌”中心经过的附近海面或地区的风力可达9-10级，阵风可达11-12级。5日下午至7日白天，印度安得拉邦中北部、马哈拉施特拉邦东部、奥里萨邦、切蒂斯格尔邦、恰尔肯德邦、西孟加拉邦以及孟加拉国中南部等地将有大到暴雨，其中安得拉邦北部和东部、马哈拉施特拉邦东部、切蒂斯格尔邦西南部的部分地区将有大暴雨（100-200毫米）。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月05日08时00分）
图2 孟加拉湾强气旋风暴“米昌”未来36小时路径概率预报图
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“米昌”将为印度东北部沿海带来强风雨
时 间：5日14时（北京时）
海 域：孟加拉湾
命 名：“米昌”，MICHAUNG
中心位置：北纬15.4度、东经80.2度
强度等级：强气旋风暴
最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：985百帕
参考位置：印度安得拉邦沿海
变化过程：过去24小时，“米昌”强度维持不变。5日16时前后，“米昌”登陆印度安得拉邦东部沿海，登陆时为强气旋风暴（中心附近最大风速为25米/秒，10级，中心最低气压为985百帕）。
预报结论：“米昌”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向偏北转东北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱，6日减弱为深低压。
受“米昌”影响，5日夜间至6日白天，印度安得拉邦沿海，奥里萨邦沿海将有6-8级大风。5日夜间至7日白天，印度安得拉邦中北部、马哈拉施特拉邦东部、奥里萨邦、切蒂斯格尔邦、恰尔肯德邦、西孟加拉邦以及孟加拉国中南部等地将有大到暴雨，其中安得拉邦北部和东部、马哈拉施特拉邦东部、切蒂斯格尔邦西南部的部分地区将有大暴雨（100-150毫米）。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月05日14时00分）
图2 孟加拉湾强气旋风暴“米昌”未来36小时路径概率预报图
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“米昌”减弱为深低压
时 间：6日08时（北京时）
海 域：孟加拉湾
命 名：“米昌”，MICHAUNG
中心位置：北纬17.2度、东经80.5度
强度等级：深低压
最大风力：7级（15米/秒，相当于我国的热带低压）
中心气压：1000百帕
参考位置：印度安得拉邦境内
变化过程：“米昌”昨日下午在印度安得拉邦东部沿海登陆后强度快速减弱，由强气旋风暴减弱为深低压。
预报结论：“米昌”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向偏北方向移动，强度继续减弱。
受“米昌”减弱后的低压影响，6日至7日，印度安得拉邦北部、马哈拉施特拉邦东部、奥里萨邦、切蒂斯格尔邦、恰尔肯德邦、西孟加拉邦以及孟加拉国中南部等地将有大到暴雨（50-80毫米）。
（这是关于“米昌”的最后一期监测公报）
图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月06日08时00分）
图3 孟加拉湾深低压“米昌”未来12小时路径概率预报图
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