WTIO31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 13.4N 81.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 81.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.4N 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.4N 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.3N 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.3N 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.1N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 81.0E.
04DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
691 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
040600Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//
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WDIO31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG)
WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 13.4N 81.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 691 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FORTUNATELY,
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED,
BROAD LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. A 040418Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS
EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT
SUPPORTING THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 55 KNOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES INDICATE A WIDE RANGE OF VALUES FROM T3.5 (55 KNOTS) TO
T4.5 (77 KNOTS). CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES SHOW A MORE CONSISTENT,
REALISTIC RANGE OF INTENSITY VALUES FROM 52 TO 53 KNOTS, WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 040600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 52 KTS AT 040700Z
CIMSS DPRINT: 52 KTS AT 040700Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B IS FORECAST TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR
THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A PEAK
OF 60 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, TC 08B WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SKIRTS THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA WITH
LANDFALL EXPECTED NEAR TAU 30. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND AND RECURVES
NORTHEASTWARD, INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE REMNANTS COULD POSSIBLY TRACK
OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER DAY 4 BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REGENERATE DUE TO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES.
MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND
LANDFALL LOCATION, HOWEVER BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. THERE IS CURRENTLY A
60 NM TO 80 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM TAU 24
TO TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THEREFORE, THERE IS MEDIUM
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS WORKED OUT WELL THUS FAR AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RELIABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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