孟加拉湾强气旋风暴“米昌”(BOB 06/08B.Michaung) 北印度洋

W ygsj24 2023-11-30 20:00:00 3166

最新回复 (35)
  • ygsj24 W 2023-12-04 18:00:00
    0 引用 21
    WTIO31 PGTW 040300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 005//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 005    
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       040000Z --- NEAR 13.5N 81.2E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
         SATELLITE, RADAR, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 81.2E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       041200Z --- 14.4N 80.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       050000Z --- 15.4N 80.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       051200Z --- 16.3N 80.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       060000Z --- 17.2N 80.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       070000Z --- 18.9N 81.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    040300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 81.1E.
    04DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    60 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
    08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
    040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
    //
    NNNN





    WDIO31 PGTW 040300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING 
    NR 005//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 13.5N 81.2E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 60 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) HAS BEEN BEHAVING ACCORDING TO
    EXPECTATIONS.  DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS IT HAS PASSED NORTH OF
    CHENNAI AND DEEPENED WHILE TRACKING PARALLEL TO THE COROMANDEL
    COAST. THE INFRARED SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT
    IT CREATES THE IMPRESSION OF VERTICAL TILT, BUT A 032229Z SSMIS
    SERIES VERIFIES THAT THE SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY INTEGRATED.  THE
    37GHZ IMAGES ALSO ALLOW FOR CONFIDENT LOCATION ON THE SYSTEM
    CENTER.  THE IMPRESSION OF VERTICAL TILT IS A RESULT OF BANDS OF
    DEEP CONVECTION BEING KICKED UP BY LAND INTERACTION WITH THE COAST
    AS EVIDENCED ON THE 91H IMAGE. IN FACT THE SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED AND
    STRENGTHENED AND IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF EXCESSIVE SHEAR OR WEAKENING
    ON ITS WAY TO LANDFALL IN THE ONGOLE-CHIRALA REGION.  THE JTWC
    SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF T3.5 IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH A
    PLETHORA OF AUTOMATED ASSESSMENTS INCLUDING ADT RAW VALUES OF T3.5
    AND DMINT AND DPRINT VALUES FROM 48 TO 55KTS. THE SYSTEM EXISTS IN
    A HEAVILY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
    A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OVER RANGOON IS FORCING THE
    SYSTEM TO STAY WEST AS IT MOVES INTO ITS POLEWARD LEG. EQUATORIAL
    OUTFLOW HAS WANED BUT POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST. THE ONLY
    FACTOR THAT WILL CAP DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS 
    LAND INTERACTION ON THE POLEWARD AND WESTERN FLANKS AND SLIGHTLY 
    COOLER NEAR-SHORE WATERS.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED IN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
    OVER RANGOON. 
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
       PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
       DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 032018Z
       CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 040000Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
       VWS: 5-10 KTS
       SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: MICHUANG WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY DURING THE
    NEXT SIX TO EIGHTEEN HOURS AS IT CONTINUES ITS STEADY TRACK TOWARDS
    THE ONGOLE CHIRALA REGION. THE TIME WINDOW FOR LANDFALL OF THE VORTEX 
    CENTERS AROUND O5DEC0600Z. LOW VWS, OUTSTANDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND 
    CONSISTENTLY WARM SEA WATERS ALONG TRACK WILL PROVIDE ONE LAST SURGE 
    OF ENERGY.  ONCE INLAND, TC 08B WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DECAY OVER 
    THE ANDRA PRADESH REGION.  VWS EXCEEDS 30KTS BY THE 18TH LATITUDE.  
    ALL CONCERNS THAT THE SYSTEM MIGHT RETURN INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL AND 
    THREATEN BANGLADESH HAVE BEEN ALLEVIATED. IT WILL BE EXTREMELY 
    DIFFICULT TO EVEN LOCATE THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST 
    PERIOD.  
    
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: ALTHOUGH THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD HAS BEEN MUCH
    HIGHER THAN AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THIS STORMS LIFE CYCLE, THE STORY
    THE GUIDANCE HAS TOLD HAS BEEN QUALITATIVELY CONSISTENT AND
    ACCURATE. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAVE TIGHTENED OVER THE
    PAST 24 HOURS, LENDING IMPROVED CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. THE JTWC
    TRACK FORECAST STAYS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
    FAVORING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND H-FAS OVER THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND TC-
    COAMPS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH BOTH THE PACK OF
    DYNAMIC AIDS AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. 
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
    NNNN
  • ygsj24 W 2023-12-04 18:00:00
    0 引用 22
    全球热带气旋监测公报
    预报:宋佳凝  签发:张 玲  2023 年 12 月 04 日 10 时 

    “米昌”向印度安得拉邦东部沿海靠近

    时       间:4日08时(北京时)

    海       域:孟加拉湾

    命       名:“米昌”,MICHAUNG

    中心位置:北纬13.5度、东经81.1度

    强度等级:气旋风暴

    最大风力:9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)

    中心气压:990百帕

    参考位置:印度金奈东偏北方向约100公里的洋面上

    变化过程:过去24小时,“米昌”由8级加强到9级

    预报结论:预计,“米昌”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向北偏西方向移动,逐渐向印度安得拉邦东部沿海靠近,并将于5日白天在上述沿海登陆,预计登陆强度为强气旋风暴(相当于我国的强热带风暴级),登陆后逐渐转向偏北方向移动,强度逐渐减弱,6日前后减弱为深低压。

    受“米昌”影响,4日中午到5日夜间孟加拉湾西部洋面和印度安得拉邦将出现6-8级大风,“米昌”中心经过的附近洋面和地区风力可达9-10级,阵风可达11-12级;印度安得拉邦、泰米尔纳德邦东北部、特伦干纳邦南部、切蒂斯格尔邦南部、奥利萨邦南部将出现大到暴雨,部分地区将出现大暴雨。

     

    图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2023年12月04日08时00分)

     

    图2 孟加拉湾气旋风暴“米昌”未来60小时路径概率预报图

  • ygsj24 W 2023-12-04 18:00:01
    0 引用 23
    WTIO31 PGTW 040900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 006//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 006    
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       040600Z --- NEAR 13.4N 81.1E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
         SATELLITE AND RADAR
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 81.1E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       041800Z --- 14.4N 80.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       050600Z --- 15.4N 80.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       051800Z --- 16.3N 80.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       060600Z --- 17.3N 80.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       070600Z --- 19.1N 82.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    040900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 81.0E.
    04DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    691 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
    05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 
    040600Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 
    24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//
    NNNN




    WDIO31 PGTW 040900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG)   
    WARNING NR 006//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 13.4N 81.1E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 691 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED
    CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD
    COVER OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FORTUNATELY, 
    RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED, 
    BROAD LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM 
    CONFIDENCE. A 040418Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS 
    EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT 
    SUPPORTING THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 55 KNOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY 
    ESTIMATES INDICATE A WIDE RANGE OF VALUES FROM T3.5 (55 KNOTS) TO 
    T4.5 (77 KNOTS). CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES SHOW A MORE CONSISTENT, 
    REALISTIC RANGE OF INTENSITY VALUES FROM 52 TO 53 KNOTS, WHICH IS 
    ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.   
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
       PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
       CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 040600Z
       CIMSS AIDT: 52 KTS AT 040700Z
       CIMSS DPRINT: 52 KTS AT 040700Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
       VWS: 0-5 KTS
       SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B IS FORECAST TO TRACK
    POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR
    THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT
    12 HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A PEAK
    OF 60 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, TC 08B WILL
    GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SKIRTS THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA WITH
    LANDFALL EXPECTED NEAR TAU 30. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL
    RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND AND RECURVES
    NORTHEASTWARD, INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
    INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE REMNANTS COULD POSSIBLY TRACK
    OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER DAY 4 BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
    REGENERATE DUE TO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
    WESTERLIES.       
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND
    LANDFALL LOCATION, HOWEVER BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC
    GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. THERE IS CURRENTLY A
    60 NM TO 80 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM TAU 24
    TO TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING
    UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THEREFORE, THERE IS MEDIUM
    OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY
    FORECAST HAS WORKED OUT WELL THUS FAR AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
    PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RELIABLE
    INTENSITY GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC MESOSCALE
    MODEL GUIDANCE.  
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
  • ygsj24 W 2023-12-04 18:00:01
    0 引用 24
    全球热带气旋监测公报
    预报:宋佳凝  签发:许映龙  2023 年 12 月 04 日 18 时 

    “米昌”将在印度安得拉邦东部沿海登陆

    时       间:4日14时(北京时)

    海       域:孟加拉湾

    命       名:“米昌”,MICHAUNG

    中心位置:北纬13.5度、东经81.1度

    强度等级:强气旋风暴

    最大风力:10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级)

    中心气压:985百帕

    参考位置:印度安得拉邦(Andhra pradesh)默吉利伯德纳姆(Machilipatnam)以南大约260公里的海面上

    变化过程:过去24小时,“米昌”由8级加强到10级

    预报结论:预计,“米昌”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向北偏西方向移动,将于5日下午在印度安得拉邦东部沿海登陆(强气旋风暴,10-11级,25-30米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),登陆后逐渐转向北偏东方向移动,强度逐渐减弱,6日减弱为深低压。

    受“米昌”影响,4日晚上到6日,印度安得拉邦沿海,奥里萨邦沿海将有6-8级大风,“米昌”中心经过的附近海面或地区的风力可达9-11级,阵风可达11-13级;印度泰米尔纳德邦东北部、安得拉邦东部、奥里萨邦、恰蒂斯加尔邦、贾坎德邦、西孟加拉邦等地将有大到暴雨,其中安得拉邦东部和奥里萨邦的部分地区将有大暴雨,局地有特大暴雨(250-350毫米)。

     

    图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2023年12月04日14时00分)

     

    图2 孟加拉湾强气旋风暴“米昌”未来60小时路径概率预报图

  • ygsj24 W 2023-12-04 22:03:34
    0 引用 25
    WTIO31 PGTW 041500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 007//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 007
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       041200Z --- NEAR 13.8N 80.8E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
         POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE AND RADAR
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 80.8E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       050000Z --- 14.8N 80.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       051200Z --- 15.7N 80.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       060000Z --- 16.7N 80.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       061200Z --- 17.9N 80.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    041500Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 80.7E.
    04DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    683 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
    05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
    042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
    NNNN

     

    WDIO31 PGTW 041500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG)  
    WARNING NR 007//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 13.8N 80.8E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 683 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    AS DEPICTED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
    RADAR IMAGERY, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE 
    WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A FORMATIVE RAGGED EYE. 
    THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A 
    041226Z SSMIS 37 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A CYAN 
    RING SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE PGTW 
    DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS INCREASED TO T4.0 (65 KNOTS). THE KNES 
    FINAL-T ESTIMATE IS CURRENTLY AT T4.0 AS WELL (CURRENT INTENSITY IS 
    AT 4.5 (77 KNOTS)). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY LOWER 
    THAN 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
    RANGING FROM 51 KNOTS TO 67 KNOTS.   
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. 
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
       PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
       KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 041030Z
       CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 041300Z
       CIMSS AIDT: 55 KTS AT 041300Z
       CIMSS DPRINT: 55 KTS AT 041300Z
       CIMSS DMINT: 67 KTS AT 041229Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
       VWS: 5-10 KTS
       SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B IS FORECAST TO TRACK 
    POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR 
    THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT
    12 HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A PEAK 
    OF 65 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, TC 08B WILL 
    GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SKIRTS THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA WITH 
    LANDFALL EXPECTED NEAR TAU 24. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL 
    RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND AND RECURVES 
    NORTHEASTWARD, INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND 
    INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE REMNANTS COULD POSSIBLY TRACK 
    OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER DAY 4 BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO 
    REGENERATE DUE TO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL 
    WESTERLIES.       
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ARE 
    IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 35 NM CROSS-
    TRACK SPREAD IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 24. AFTER TAU 
    24, GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. 
    THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK 
    FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY RELIABLE 
    INTENSITY GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC MESOSCALE MODEL 
    GUIDANCE.  
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    最后于 2023-12-05 06:00:42 被ygsj24编辑 ,原因:
  • karding MG 2023-12-04 22:16:50
    0 引用 26

    JTWC 12Z分析升至T4.0/4.0,SSD 12Z分析降至T4.0/4.5

    TPIO10 PGTW 041239

     

    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG)

     

    B. 04/1145Z

     

    C. 13.83N

     

    D. 80.71E

     

    E. FIVE/GOES-IO

     

    F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

     

    G. IR/EIR

     

    H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.1 ON LOG10 SPIRAL

    YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.

     

    I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:

       04/0727Z  13.72N  80.97E  ATMS

       04/0817Z  13.40N  80.90E  ATMS

     

     

       PETERSEN

    TXIO22 KNES 041202

    TCSNIO

     

    A.  08B (MICHAUNG)

     

    B.  04/1130Z

     

    C.  13.9N

     

    D.  80.8E

     

    E.  THREE/MET-9

     

    F.  T4.0/4.5

     

    G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

     

    H.  REMARKS...12/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT AGREE. THE

    FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

     

    I.  ADDL POSITIONS

     

        NIL

     

     

    ...TURK

  • 柳絮因风起 MG 2023-12-04 23:49:03
    0 引用 27
    JTWC 14Z分析维持T4.0/4.0
    TPIO10 PGTW 041520 A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG)
    B. 04/1430Z
    C. 14.29N
    D. 80.14E
    E. FIVE/GOES-IO
    F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
    G. IR/EIR
    H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.1 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
    I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: 04/1226Z 14.05N 80.73E SSMS PETERSEN
  • 柳絮因风起 MG 2023-12-04 23:49:13
    0 引用 28
    JTWC 14Z分析维持T4.0/4.0
    TPIO10 PGTW 041520 A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG)
    B. 04/1430Z
    C. 14.29N
    D. 80.14E
    E. FIVE/GOES-IO
    F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
    G. IR/EIR
    H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.1 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
    I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: 04/1226Z 14.05N 80.73E SSMS PETERSEN
  • 柳絮因风起 MG 2023-12-04 23:52:28
    0 引用 29
    贴个ADT
    UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 9.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 04 DEC 2023 Time : 143000 UTC Lat : 14:03:12 N Lon : 80:43:04 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.3 / 995.8mb/ 51.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.3 3.5 3.5 Center Temp : -71.8C Cloud Region Temp : -69.4C Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION Subtropical Adjustment : OFF Extratropical Adjustment : OFF Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Ocean Basin : INDIAN Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 73nmi - Environmental MSLP : 1009mb Satellite Name : MSG2 Satellite Viewing Angle : 43.5 degrees
  • rYanoposis DG 2023-12-05 03:15:33
    0 引用 30


    降水十分猛烈。Tamil Nadu有大量大部24小时200mm以上的站点。金奈周围有24小时457mm

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