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ABPW10 PGTW 221100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/221100Z-230600ZNOV2023// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.9N 110.8E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION. A 220627Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CAPTURED FORMATIVE BANDS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND, THOUGH OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, THE LACK OF A DISTINCT, CONSOLIDATED LLCC AT THIS TIME WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).// NNNN
ABPW10 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/231500Z-240600ZNOV2023// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 109.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 108.6E, APPROXIMATELY 624 NM EAST OF PHUKET. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231033Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE CIRCULATION IS LOCATED ADJACENT TO A 20-25 KNOT NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT DISAGREE ON DEVELOPMENT. GFS HAS 99W CONTINUING TO DEEPEN BEFORE CROSSING THE MALAY PENINSULA WHILE ECMWF HAS VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.// NNNN
ABPW10 PGTW 240600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZNOV2023// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 108.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.1N 107.8E, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF PHUKET. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. A 240239Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS 5-15 KT WINDS AROUND THE LLC WITH STRONGER 25-30 KT WINDS 160 NM TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE NORTHEAST SURGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 99W IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN
ABPW10 PGTW 260030 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/260030Z-260600ZNOV2023// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 106.5E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).// NNNN
ABIO10 PGTW 290300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/290300Z-291800ZNOV2023// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N 91.6E, APPROXIMATELY 857 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 282342Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SERIES SHOW A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR. THERE IS ALSO DEVELOPING CURVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE CIRCULATION EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHWEST TIP OF SUMATRA. THE LLC IS BROAD AND RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE. THE SYSTEM EXISTS IN THE LONE FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ENTIRE THEATRE, WITH EXTENSIVE DIVERGENCE OVER THE ENTIRE BAY OF BENGAL. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION THAT HAS BEEN MOSTLY NON-EXISTENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS HAS RISEN FROM THE DEAD OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ANOMALOUS WESTERLIES ARE INCREASING ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. STEADY EASTERLIES OVER THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAVE SURGED ACROSS THE MALAY PENINSULA, MAKING FOR A DISCERNABLE MONSOON TROF THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF SRI LANKA TO THE NORTHWEST TIP OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW A STEADY INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION OF MOIST GRADIENT LEVEL FLOW. ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A CLEAR AND STEADY TREND TOWARD DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN NEAR THE 90TH MERIDIAN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND A STEADY SIGNAL INCREASE IN THE 850 MB VORTICITY CHART. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 95B WITH A STEADY DEVELOPMENT CYCLE AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).// NNNN
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WTIO21 PGTW 011500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95B)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7N 86.2E TO 16.1N 80.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 120112Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 85.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 86.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 85.6E, APPROXIMATELY 352NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 011316Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH DEEP, CONSOLIDATING BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS REFLECTED BY LOW (10-15KT) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SST, AND GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT OF A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 021500Z.// NNNN
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WTIO31 PGTW 030300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021451DEC2023// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 11.5N 82.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 82.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 12.3N 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 13.2N 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 14.1N 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 15.2N 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 17.0N 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 18.3N 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 19.7N 84.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 82.3E. 03DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 021500)// NNNN
WDIO31 PGTW 030300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 11.5N 82.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 162 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TC 08W HAS GATHERED ITSELF AND CONSOLIDATED UPSTREAM OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. THE SYSTEM DEVELOPED SLOWLY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO STIMULATION FROM A PEAKING PHASE THREE OF THE MJO. WITHOUT THE BOOST FROM THE MJO THE SYSTEM WOULD NOT LIKELY HAVE DEEPENED BEYOND DEPRESSION STATUS. BUT OVER THE PAST FOUR HOURS CONVECTION DEEPENED AND TIGHTENED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), LEAVING A BROAD DOUGHNUT HOLE THAT LENDS CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE POSITION AND DVORAK ASSESSMENTS. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON DVORAKS AND INFERRED FROM SURFACE PRESSURE REPORTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF INDIA AS WELL AS MODEL FIELDS. TC 08B IS IN AN EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEPENING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SPECTACULAR OUTFLOW, WITH THE POLEWARD FLANK TAPPING INTO A VIGOROUS SUBTROPICAL JET THAT IS ARCHING OVER MYANMAR AND SOUTHERN CHINA. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO VIGOROUS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS FROM CIMSS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE IS NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION AS WELL AS A BROAD BELT OF EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES CONTINUING TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE COAST IS COMPLETELY SATURATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE. 28 TO 29 DEGREE SEA WATER TEMPERATURES AND DECENT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES LIE ALONG TRACK UNDERNEATH LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) VALUES. WINDSHEAR INCREASES SHARPLY NORTH OF CHENNAI, BUT IN THE NEAR TERM, EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR INCREASES NORTH OF THE 13TH LATITUDE, THE ENHANCED EXHAUST WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP FURTHER. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: AVERAGE DISTANCE TO BANDING FEATURES IN A 022243Z SSMIS 37V. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM OVER RANGOON THROUGH THE VISAKHAPATNAM AREA. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B WILL TAKE A STEADY BEND TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, SKIRTING THE PONDICHERRY COAST WHILE DEEPENING THANKS TO A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY FREELY UP UNTIL LAND INTERACTION BEGINS TO WEAR ON IT NEAR THE COAST. THE PARALLEL BEARING TO THE COAST AND THE LARGER THAN AVERAGE TRACK GUIDANCE SPREAD MAKE FOR LOWER CERTAINTY AS TO PRECISELY WHERE, AND AT WHAT INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM WILL COME ASHORE. BUT HIGH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WINDS APPROACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL ARE PLAUSIBLE. ONCE INLAND, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN RAPID DECAY, BUT THE RISK OF RE-EMERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL REMAINS POSSIBLE. EVEN IF TC O8B DOES TRACK BACK INTO THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL, HOWEVER, COOLER SEA WATER AND VERY HIGH VWS WILL CAP INTENSIFICATION MAKING RE-INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY. THE MUCH MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ASHORE NEAR 05DEC0600Z, NEAR ONGOLE, AND DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY 07DEC1200Z AS IT SHEARS AND CHOKES ON DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. MODEL DISCUSSION: ECMWF HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING GFS IN THIS CASE. GFS BEGAN WITH THE TRACK CURLING OVER BANGLADESH BUT HAS GRADUALLY WALKED WEST AND JOINED THE PACK. WITH THE LATEST RUNS ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A LAND STRIKE BETWEEN CHENNAI AND VISAKHAPATNAM, WITH DECAY OVER THE SUBCONTINENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE. TRACK GUIDANCE IS FINE THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS BUT AFTER THAT THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DROP-OFF DUE TO A LARGER-THAN-AVERAGE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD. THE JTWC FORECAST LEANS INSIDE AND RIGHT OF CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND THE H-FAS. THOSE MODELS STEER THE STORM, OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT, BACK TO SEA NEAR THE 20TH LATITUDE AFTER THE END OF THE FIVE DAY FORECAST. THE TRACK ENDS JUST PRIOR TO THAT AND DISSIPATION OVER LAND REMAINS THE EXPECTATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST GOES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS THROUGH LANDFALL IN CONSIDERATION OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THEN DECAYS THE STORM FASTER THAN GUIDANCE BASED ON THE OBSERVED TENDENCY OF THE GUIDANCE TO UNDER-FACTOR THE INFLUENCE OF THE RUGGED TERRAIN IN EASTERN INDIA. GUIDANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL AS THE STORM MATURES, GIVING HIGHER CERTAINTY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-03 12:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO31 PGTW 030900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 11.8N 82.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 82.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 12.6N 82.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 13.5N 81.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 14.5N 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 15.4N 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 17.0N 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 18.7N 82.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 82.5E. 03DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030600Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.// NNNN
WDIO31 PGTW 030900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 11.8N 82.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 725 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 030036Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, INDICATES IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 030430Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER AND 30-35 KNOT WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-B DATA AS WELL AS THE PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 030700Z CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 030700Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24 WITH A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN THROUGH TAU 36. TC 08B IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO NORTHERN INDIA, WHICH WILL ERODE AND REORIENT THE STR INTO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION. TC 08B WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF INDIA WITH LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 08B WILL RECURVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND AND ENCOUNTERS THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND STRONG VWS (20 KNOTS AT TAU 48 TO 45 KNOTS AT TAU 96). AFTER THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES NEAR TAU 96, THE REMNANTS MAY TRACK BACK OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE DUE TO THE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 115 NM AT TAU 48 DIVERGING TO 165NM AT TAU 72 LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A VERY LARGE SPREAD. THE 021800Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BUT SHOWS FOUR SOLUTIONS TRACKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF INDIA WITH HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY. THE 030000Z GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) INDICATES A SMALL NUMBER (LOW PROBABILITY) OF SOLUTIONS WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AND PROLONGED PERIOD OVER WATER. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 45 TO 50 KNOTS WITH HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC (BOTH GFS AND NAVGEM VERSIONS) INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW) REVEALS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE JTWC PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS MAINTAINED BASED ON THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS FURTHER BOLSTERED BY THE TRIGGERING OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE AND THE 030000Z COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) ENSEMBLE, WHICH INDICATES A 40 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR RAPID INTENSICATION THROUGH TAU 18. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-03 18:00:05 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
孟加拉湾气旋风暴“米昌”生成
时 间：3日14时（北京时）
海 域：孟加拉湾
命 名：“米昌”，MICHAUNG
中心位置：北纬11.7度、东经82.4度
强度等级：气旋风暴
最大风力：8级（18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：998百帕
参考位置：印度金奈东偏南方向约280公里的洋面上
变化过程：“米昌”生成并加强到8级
预报结论：“米昌”将以每小时12公里左右的速度向西北方向移动，逐渐向印度东部沿海靠近，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月03日14时00分）
图2 孟加拉湾气旋风暴“米昌”未来72小时路径概率预报图
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WTIO31 PGTW 031500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 12.4N 82.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 82.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 13.3N 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 14.2N 81.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 15.1N 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 16.0N 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 18.0N 82.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 19.2N 83.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 82.4E. 03DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 699 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031200Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.// NNNN
WDIO31 PGTW 031500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.4N 82.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 699 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AS DEPICTED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B HAS STEADILY CONSOLIDATED WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031143Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS). IN GENERAL, CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES (ADT, AIDT, DPRINT, DMINT) RANGE FROM 36 TO 41 KNOTS SUPPORTING THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OTHER CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 031230Z CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 031230Z CIMSS DPRINT: 40 KTS AT 031300Z CIMSS DMINT: 36 KTS AT 031146Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TC 08B IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF INDIA NEAR TAU 48, TC O8B WILL SLOWLY RECURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHERN INDIA ERODING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND AND ENCOUNTERS VIGOROUS MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG VWS (20 KNOTS AT TAU 60 TO 45 KNOTS AT TAU 84). AFTER THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES NEAR TAU 96, THE REMNANTS MAY TRACK BACK OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE DUE TO THE HOSTILE UPPER- LEVEL CONDITIONS. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 70 NM AT TAU 48 DIVERGING TO 115NM AT TAU 72 LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A VERY LARGE SPREAD. THE 030600Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) AND GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) ALSO INDICATE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK WITH SOLUTIONS EVENLY SPREAD AROUND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK INCLUDING SOME SOLUTIONS TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER WATER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF INDIA. THE LATEST HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC RUNS INDICATE A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 50 TO 55 KNOTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW) REVEALS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE JTWC PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS MAINTAINED BASED ON THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS FURTHER BOLSTERED BY THE TRIGGERING OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 030600Z COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) ENSEMBLE, WHICH INDICATES A 100 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR MODERATE INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 18. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-04 05:00:03 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO31 PGTW 032100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 12.9N 81.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 81.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 13.7N 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 14.7N 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 15.6N 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 16.6N 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 18.3N 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 81.7E. 03DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 693 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z. // NNNN
WDIO31 PGTW 032100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.9N 81.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 693 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES TO THE NORTH AND WEST STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN COHESION AS THEY PASS OVER MAINLAND INDIA. A 031536Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES CAN BE SEEN AROUND THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 031539Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A BELT OF 35-40 KT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR, AMSU-B AND ASCAT DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PREPONDERANCE OF AUTOMATED AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING 45KTS, FURTHER REINFORCED BY THE PARTIAL ASCAT PASS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 031500Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL MARCH TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN INDIA IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FUELED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SSTS AND STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, 08B IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY TO ROUGHLY 60KTS. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AXIS OF THE STR, IT WILL BEGIN TO TURN DUE NORTH AND JUST AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN INDIA NEAR 55KTS. NEAR TAU 48, AS 08B CONTINUES INLAND, VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE AND 08B WEAKENS TO AROUND 40KTS. AFTER TAU 48, TOPOGRAPHY BECOMES A MAJOR OBSTACLE AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO TRAVERSE THE EASTERN GHATS WHICH FURTHER WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AND RESULTS IN ITS EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING A 100NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS TREND WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, THOUGH COAMPS-TC AND NVGM INDICATE A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH DISSIPATION. FOR THESE REASONS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24 AFTER WHICH A GRADUAL DECLINE THAT WORSENS WITH LANDFALL UNTIL DISSIPATION. FOR THESE REASONS, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-04 05:00:03 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO31 PGTW 040300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 13.5N 81.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 81.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 14.4N 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 15.4N 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 16.3N 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 17.2N 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 18.9N 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 81.1E. 04DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z. // NNNN
WDIO31 PGTW 040300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.5N 81.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 60 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) HAS BEEN BEHAVING ACCORDING TO EXPECTATIONS. DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS IT HAS PASSED NORTH OF CHENNAI AND DEEPENED WHILE TRACKING PARALLEL TO THE COROMANDEL COAST. THE INFRARED SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT IT CREATES THE IMPRESSION OF VERTICAL TILT, BUT A 032229Z SSMIS SERIES VERIFIES THAT THE SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY INTEGRATED. THE 37GHZ IMAGES ALSO ALLOW FOR CONFIDENT LOCATION ON THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE IMPRESSION OF VERTICAL TILT IS A RESULT OF BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION BEING KICKED UP BY LAND INTERACTION WITH THE COAST AS EVIDENCED ON THE 91H IMAGE. IN FACT THE SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENED AND IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF EXCESSIVE SHEAR OR WEAKENING ON ITS WAY TO LANDFALL IN THE ONGOLE-CHIRALA REGION. THE JTWC SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF T3.5 IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH A PLETHORA OF AUTOMATED ASSESSMENTS INCLUDING ADT RAW VALUES OF T3.5 AND DMINT AND DPRINT VALUES FROM 48 TO 55KTS. THE SYSTEM EXISTS IN A HEAVILY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OVER RANGOON IS FORCING THE SYSTEM TO STAY WEST AS IT MOVES INTO ITS POLEWARD LEG. EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW HAS WANED BUT POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST. THE ONLY FACTOR THAT WILL CAP DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS LAND INTERACTION ON THE POLEWARD AND WESTERN FLANKS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR-SHORE WATERS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED IN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER RANGOON. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 032018Z CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 040000Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: MICHUANG WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT SIX TO EIGHTEEN HOURS AS IT CONTINUES ITS STEADY TRACK TOWARDS THE ONGOLE CHIRALA REGION. THE TIME WINDOW FOR LANDFALL OF THE VORTEX CENTERS AROUND O5DEC0600Z. LOW VWS, OUTSTANDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND CONSISTENTLY WARM SEA WATERS ALONG TRACK WILL PROVIDE ONE LAST SURGE OF ENERGY. ONCE INLAND, TC 08B WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DECAY OVER THE ANDRA PRADESH REGION. VWS EXCEEDS 30KTS BY THE 18TH LATITUDE. ALL CONCERNS THAT THE SYSTEM MIGHT RETURN INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THREATEN BANGLADESH HAVE BEEN ALLEVIATED. IT WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO EVEN LOCATE THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: ALTHOUGH THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD HAS BEEN MUCH HIGHER THAN AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THIS STORMS LIFE CYCLE, THE STORY THE GUIDANCE HAS TOLD HAS BEEN QUALITATIVELY CONSISTENT AND ACCURATE. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAVE TIGHTENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, LENDING IMPROVED CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND H-FAS OVER THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND TC- COAMPS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH BOTH THE PACK OF DYNAMIC AIDS AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“米昌”向印度安得拉邦东部沿海靠近
时 间：4日08时（北京时）
海 域：孟加拉湾
命 名：“米昌”，MICHAUNG
中心位置：北纬13.5度、东经81.1度
强度等级：气旋风暴
最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：990百帕
参考位置：印度金奈东偏北方向约100公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“米昌”由8级加强到9级
预报结论：预计，“米昌”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向北偏西方向移动，逐渐向印度安得拉邦东部沿海靠近，并将于5日白天在上述沿海登陆，预计登陆强度为强气旋风暴（相当于我国的强热带风暴级），登陆后逐渐转向偏北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱，6日前后减弱为深低压。
受“米昌”影响，4日中午到5日夜间孟加拉湾西部洋面和印度安得拉邦将出现6-8级大风，“米昌”中心经过的附近洋面和地区风力可达9-10级，阵风可达11-12级；印度安得拉邦、泰米尔纳德邦东北部、特伦干纳邦南部、切蒂斯格尔邦南部、奥利萨邦南部将出现大到暴雨，部分地区将出现大暴雨。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月04日08时00分）
图2 孟加拉湾气旋风暴“米昌”未来60小时路径概率预报图
