美国代表提出报告称玛娃造成严重破坏和洪水、Dora带来了远距离较大影响，并分别对此两台的影响提供了相应的描述。

STY Mawar weakened as it approached the north tip of Guam due to a timely eyewall replacement cycle (ERC),
but still delivered much devastation and flooding to central and northern Guam. Once to the west of
the island, the ERC completed and a second round of rapid intensification took place. 

Hurricane Dora brought distant but significant impacts to portions of the Hawaiian Islands as it moved
east to west across the entire AOR. 

The most significant indirect impact from Dora was a disastrous wildfire which
occurred during a period of very strong winds as Dora passed far to the south of the Hawaiian Islands.

社会经济影响模块玛娃与Dora的描述如下：

Damage across the northern third of Guam was extensive to many structures, and catastrophic to most wood and tin structures (anything not reinforced concrete). 

Significant impacts were noted on the Hawaiian island of Maui during the distant passage of Major Hurricane Dora on 8 August 2023. During that time period, existing and new wildfires raged out of control on the island of Maui due to strong winds which developed between Dora and an unseasonably strong high pressure area north of the region. These winds destroyed trees and power lines during the day, but as winds became stronger a wildfire developed outside of Lahaina town and raced into the city. The speed of the fire overtook many residents who could not evacuate in time and there were 99 fatalities and hundreds of people injured. Many people took refuge in the ocean as flames reached the coastline. The wildfire destroyed over 2000 structures including homes and businesses that day. Total economic damages are estimated at between 4 and 6 billion USD. Recovery of the area continues many months after, with RSMC Honolulu having provided hundreds of forecasts and briefings in support of the recovery crews in the area. 

同时布拉万也有提及，但是由于通过距离较安全，未造成特别重大损失（损失为强热带风暴级），塞班于最近距离录得TS级风力。

Damage across Rota and Tinian was minimal due to the fortunate passage of Bolaven directly between the two islands which sit 50 miles (80 km) apart. Observations from Saipan indicated tropical storm force winds (34-63 kt) despite Bolaven having passed only about 45 miles (72 km) to the south-southwest.

Its passage between the two islands spared both locations the strongest, typhoonforce winds, with severe tropical storm force damage indicated across the CNMI.

我国代表提交的报告得出结论认为2023年台风灾害造成的损失低于过去五年（2018~2022）的平均水平，且灾害数据统计部分全来自停编以前，因此作为残余在华北引发重大灾情与人员伤亡的“灾王”杜苏芮记录的死亡和失踪人数为0，引起热议。

In general, losses caused by typhoon disasters in 2023 were lower than the average level in the past five years.

表格内容未体现经济损失，据早前我国应急管理部门公布的灾损数据，前三季度由台风（停编以前）造成的灾害经济损失为324.8亿元，按照我国代表本报告呈现的内容，由于18、19两年为灾损大年本身大幅拔高了前五年平均，因此今年这样直接灾害损失显著高于20-22三年的依然是未达到前五年平均。

此外本报告特别提到了海葵的直接经济损失：158.3亿元，并用了Tragically一词，其他台风包括杜苏芮的经济损失数据都没有提到，人员伤亡内容也有部分出入（描述海葵段落为12人死亡，表格为6人死亡）

Tragically, 12 individuals lost their lives, and approximately 64,000 hectares of crops were affected. The direct economic losses amounted to 15.83billion RMB.

关于大家最关心的除名问题，虽然2013年和2016年CMA的选择是优先考虑了经济损失，但CMA在近年亦表示会优先考虑人员伤亡问题（特别在解释放弃除名烟花的文章中提到），如果按照CMA近年口吻以及本报告，海葵不论是直接经济损失（158.3）还是人员伤亡（12或6）皆高于杜苏芮（147.55），因此如果CMA准备除名，按照本报告海葵的优先级反而高于杜苏芮，而且海葵是利奇马以来首个经济损失数据被写入CMA在IWS时提交的年度报告的台风，19-23年的其余台风包括杜苏芮在内都没有写入，不知是否有一定暗示信息。不过在纯数据方面相较往年的除名（温比亚、利奇马等），海葵的数据也不具有明显（除名）优势。

另外台风委员会提到除名台风的数据提取自成员报告，那IWS时期提交的报告可能确实会影响最终除名的选择。但可能比较遗憾的一点是如果只计算直接损失的话今年没有一个达到坊间流传的除名门槛200亿元，因此也还是不能排除CMA继续空除的可能。CMA曾表示提出除名考虑的点主要包括经济损失、人员伤亡、社会经济影响，但是从没有明确过除名门槛到底是多少，所以这个门槛也未必就是民间流传的200亿，而且过去损失不足200亿被除名和远超200亿仍未除名的台风也都有过。

但是对于杜苏芮倒是不用太担心成为“法外狂徒”，因为它在影响菲律宾时期就已经造成了非常严重的灾情，损失数据为148.04亿比索（与卡努合计），按照菲律宾近几年的除名习惯，即使我国放弃，菲律宾大概率也不会放过杜苏芮。另外杜苏芮也是今年目前为止影响菲律宾最严重的台风。

但这样来看海葵是否除名就可能还是有一定悬念，继续观察（不过已经可以确定由CMA提名的可能性高于杜苏芮，除了CMA，HKO也可以提出除名，但是考虑系统性质界定的问题也不太好说，且HKO此前没有提出过灾害性除名的先例，对于只影响港澳的台风，CMA可能让HKO或SMG自行判断，但海葵显然不是只影响了港澳，而且从HKO报告来看，似乎也缺乏提出除名的有力数据）。

现在比较明确的是远程遥控的间接影响是不计入总影响的（参考烟花），但是否计入直接本体撤编后的残余影响在今年似乎也为CMA所纠结，而CMA往期在有关台风上标准不统一也有一定热议，可能与近年此类案例较少有关。可以说CMA的这份报告确实为今年我国灾台的除名增加了不少悬念。

尽管气爱主流认知以及可能在媒体宣传作用下公众也倾向于将撤编后的残余远期影响计入该台风的损失，但CMA对此仍有保留态度。据了解CMA已收到有关质疑，而且对于停编后的定性以及是否将残余影响纳入总影响的标准问题，有关专家组正在展开讨论，有望在明年台海专家组会上得出一个统一方案。

另外考虑到媒体的宣传作用与个别台风可能本身具有特殊文化影响力，部分台风可能会成为大众除名呼声特别高但最终获得CMA“赦免”的这一类型，对于此类台风CMA也有人士表示会有专门文章来解释“赦免”高除名呼声灾台的原因以解答公众疑惑，烟花就是第一个案例。

韩国代表提交的报告特别关注卡努（但是今年确实也只有卡努能够被KMA关注）并提到卡努是1951年以来首个纵穿朝鲜半岛的台风。

As it was the first typhoon to cross the Korean Peninsula from north to south since 1951, there was great concern about damage depending on the predicted timing of its landing.

同时提到影响小于预期（担忧），先前准备工作起到明显作用。卡努在韩导致的人员伤亡为2人死亡，经济损失为560亿韩元。

In particular, along KHANUN’s northward path after landing, the eastern region recorded the heaviest
rainfall in August since observations began in 1968. Nationwide, 361 cases of facility damage were
recorded, and 2 casualties occurred. More than 15,000 people were temporarily evacuated.

Typhoon KHANUN swept the entire Korean Peninsula, but analysis suggests that the damage to life
and property was not as great as initially feared. This is believed to be the result of prior preparations
such as evacuating residents in vulnerable areas, refraining from going out, and controlling traffic.

路径显示在两次转向期间KMA一直维持TY等级定强直至登陆前才降格STS。

我国香港代表提交报告内容包括水文评估、社会经济损失等。其中水文评估重点分析海葵，苏拉以较短几句带过；社会影响苏拉和海葵各成一段。

In terms of rainfall, Haikui was the wettest tropical cyclone affecting Hong Kong by far in 2023. A trough of low pressure associated with the remnant of tropical cyclone Haikui brought a recordbreaking rainstorm to Hong Kong on 7 and 8 September 2023.
During the torrential rain, the HKO Headquarters registered a record-breaking hourly rainfall of 158.1mm from 11 p.m. to midnight on 7 September 2023, the highest since records began in 1884. The 2-hour total rainfall of 201.0 mm and 12-hour total rainfall of 605.8 mm recorded at the Observatory Headquarters during this rainstorm also broke their respective records. The highest rainstorm warning, Black Rainstorm Warning Signal, was issued and lasted for 16 hours and 35 minutes, settingthe longest record since the introduction of the rainstorm warning system in 1992.

In terms of storm surge, Saola also resulted in flooding in some low-lying coastal areas of Hong Kong.

苏拉未造成人员死亡，受伤人数在80人以上。

During the passage of Saola, destructive high winds, storm surge and squally heavy rain associated
with Saola affected Hong Kong on 1 and 2 September 2023. According to preliminary reports, there
were over 3,000 reports of fallen trees, 21 reports of flooding and 2 reports of landslides in Hong
Kong. There were also about 40 reports of damaged scaffolding, signboards and windows. Power
supply was temporarily interrupted in some places. 460 flights were cancelled at the Hong Kong
International Airport. While more than 80 people were injured, there was no fatality in Hong Kong
during the passage of Saola.

分析海葵定性主体是“低压槽与海葵残余的结合”，至少2人死亡、140人受伤，经济损失数据未有提供。

The record-breaking heavy rain brought by the trough of low pressure associated with the remnant of
tropical cyclone Haikui caused flash floods and landslides over many parts of Hong Kong, resulting
in widespread traffic disruption and damages to infrastructure. According to preliminary reports,
there were 60 reports of flooding and over 200 reports of landslides. Power and water supply were
temporarily interrupted in some places. At least two people were killed and more than 140 were
injured during the rainstorm.

当前仍仅有菲律宾提供了备选替换名

我国代表对报告内容进行了几处修改，三巴的致死人数修正为4人。

另外，北本朝展教授的数字台风网介绍PPT也已上传至IWS18。

台风委员会第56届会议（TCS56）已明确召开时间地点，网站也已建立。

本帖内容已基本完结√ 后续内容至TCS56贴讨论。