ABPW10 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/151500Z-160600ZDEC2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
3.4N 144.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 139.4E, APPROXIMATELY 319 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) HIGHLIGHTS THE OVERALL BROAD NATURE OF 91W AND ITS LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) BARELY PEAKING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF 
ROBUST CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (30-32C) SSTS, AND LOW TO 
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY MODERATE 
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS, SPECIFICALLY GFS 
AND NAVGEM, DEPICT 91W TO CONSOLIDATE STEADILY WHILE TRACKING 
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO AND REACH 
WARNING THRESHOLD (25 KTS INTENSITY) PRIOR TO LANDFALL. INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SHOWS A STEADY BUILD UP TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
STRENGTH OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.2N 
172.2E, APPROXIMATELY 427 NM SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151038Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETER 
PARTIAL PASS DEPICT A BROAD, POORLY ORGANIZED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH WARM (29-30C) SSTS, LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), 
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE 92W 
WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE, STAYING QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 72 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1)//
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ABPW10 PGTW 201330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201330Z-210600ZDEC2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
3.7N 167.6E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 18W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.9N 
114.0E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTHEAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 201028Z SSMIS 37GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC AREA OF CIRCULATION 
HUGGING THE EASTERN EDGE OF A ROBUST NORTHEAST COLD SURGE PUSHING 
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST OF VIETNAM. THE EIR SHOWS AN AREA OF INTENSE 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVTY WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF MID-LEVEL ROTATION, WHICH 
HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT IS NOW BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AS WELL AS SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE REGION MARK THE OUTLINES OF THE 
RELATIVELY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE MICROWAVE 
IMAGE NOTED ABOVE SHOWS A BROAD ARC OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND AN EXPOSED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION TO 
THE SOUTH, GENERALLY MARKING THE POSITION OF THE LLCC. THE WIND FIELD 
REMAINS HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS STREAMING DOWN THE 
FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION, WHILE ON THE EASTERN SIDE THE 
WINDS REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE 
SHEAR, OUTFLOW AND SST CONDITIONS BEING OFFSET BY THE ASYMMETRIC 
NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STABLE AIR 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF 
THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL SHORTLY BEGIN 
DIVING SOUTHWESTWARD, RIDING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SURGE FLOW. BOTH 
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME OF THE SURGE FLOW STARTING TO WRAP 
INTO THE CIRCULATION AS IT PASSES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF VIETNAM, WHICH 
BEARS CLOSE SCRUTINY AS THE TERRAIN INDUCED CYCLONIC FLOW ENHANCEMENT 
COULD RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE IN CYCLONIC VORTICITY IN AND AROUND 
THE LLCC AS THE CIRCULATION APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN MALAY PENINSULA. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.3S 138.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY 183 NM 
EAST OF WEIPA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SCATTERED OVER AN ELONGATED AREA OF 
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION EVIDENT IN A 200024Z ASCAT-B IMAGE. LOW-LEVEL 
TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST, THROUGH THE 
LLCC THAT DEFINES 94P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (10-15KT) VWS, GOOD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS IT 
CURVES EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) AND 
UPGRADED AREA IN 1.B.(2) TO LOW.//
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