ABPW10 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200300Z-200600ZDEC2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
3.7N 167.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2N 168.8E, APPROXIMATELY 357 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A 190233Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DISORGANIZED 
CONVECTION SCATTERED PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN 
ELONGATED, AND VERY BROAD ROTATION. TROUGHING EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST 
AND SOUTHWEST, WITH NO CLEARLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS PAINTS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR 
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS OFFSETTING GOOD 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SPLIT, WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING ONLY 
MODEST DEVELOPMENT WHICH DIES OFF IN ABOUT 48 HOURS, WHILE THE NAVGEM 
DEVELOPS A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE SAME TIMEFRAME, ULTIMATELY 
HEADING WEST TOWARDS THE MARIANAS IN THE LONG TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3S 
138.9E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DISORGANIZED 
CONVECTION SCATTERED OVER AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION 
EVIDENT IN A 200024Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE. LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS 
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST, WITH NO CLEARLY DEFINED LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (10-15KT) VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND 
WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
THAT 94P WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS IT CURVES EQUATORWARD AND 
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).//
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ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZDEC2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 18W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.6N 111.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 111.8E, APPROXIMATELY 251 NM 
NORTHWEST OF BRUNEI . ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 
PARTLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WELL SOUTH OF THE 
DEEP AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS ALSO ENHANCED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND 
SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LIGHT 
(10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT INVEST 18W WILL MAINTAIN A 
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING POSSIBLE 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.3S 138.9E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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