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WTIO30 FMEE 310640 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/1/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1 2.A POSITION 2023/12/31 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 38.3 E (TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2023/12/31 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 75 24H: 2024/01/01 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 110 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 85 36H: 2024/01/01 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 120 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 85 48H: 2024/01/02 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 60H: 2024/01/02 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 130 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 75 NW: 95 72H: 2024/01/03 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5 OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY IMPROVED, IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, SHOWING SIGNS OF CURVATURE SUGGESTING AN INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY SSMIS-F17'S MICROWAVE PASS FROM 0348Z, SHOWING A HOOK SHAPE ON THE 89GHZ COLOR IMAGE, MOVING UPWARDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE POOR QUALITY OF THE 37GHZ MICROWAVE DOES NOT CLEARLY SHOW A RING AT PRESENT, SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL BEYOND THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. THUS, GIVEN THESE ELEMENTS AND DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE STUDY, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE REACHED THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CROSS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEST-NORTH-WEST FLOW DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EQUATOR TO THE NORTH. ITS TRAJECTORY WILL THEREFORE BE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH IT COULD REACH LATE ON MONDAY OR DURING THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. THE DISPERSION OF NUMERICAL WEATHER FORECASTS REMAINS QUITE SIGNIFICANT FOR ITS SPEED OF MOVEMENT, WITH A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS AND THE OTHER MODELS. THE TRACK FORECAST BY RSMC IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST IFS AND AROME RUNS IN TERMS OF TIMING.THE AMERICAN GFS MODEL IS STILL TOO FAST, BOTH FOR LANDING AND FOR EXITING THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN. HOWEVER, WHEN IT COMES TO EXITING THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, EUROPEAN GUIDANCES ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AMERICAN MODEL ON THIS POSSIBILITY.THE RSMC ANALYSIS THEREFORE TAKES THIS SCENARIO INTO ACCOUNT, EVEN IF THERE IS STILL A WIDE DISPERSION IN TERMS OF TIMING, AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT, WITH FAIRLY GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND GOOD POLAR HIGH-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, THESE CONDITIONS ARE OFFSET BY MODERATE WEST-SOUTH-WEST SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPSPHERE. THIS MID-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN, BRINGING DRY AIR TO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. FROM MONDAY EVENING ONWARDS, DEEP SHEAR IS SET TO BE ADDED. THIS INFLUX OF DRY AIR COULD SLOW THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LANDING. THE CURRENT FORECAST THEREFORE SUGGESTS AN INTENSIFICATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LEVELLING OFF IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR. THE SYSTEM COULD PROBABLY REACH THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM TODAY, OR EVEN OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT EVENING. AFTER WEAKENING OVER MADAGASCAR, THE SYSTEM COULD TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, BEFORE WEAKENING PERMANENTLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF PERSISTENT NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND : MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE, FIANARANTSOA PROVINCE): - GALE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY TO ARRIVE (20-40%) FROM MIDDAY MONDAY UNTIL NIGHT MONDAY TO TUESDAY. - HEAVY RAIN FROM MONDAY ON THE WEST COAST, SPREADING TO THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY.RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-200MM, LOCALLY 300M. - WAVES CLOSE TO 4M NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE AROUND MONDAY EVENING.=
最后于 2023-12-31 15:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTXS21 PGTW 310730 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.2S 38.2E TO 21.8S 44.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 310700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 38.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 37.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 38.5E, APPROXIMATELY 158 NM NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER. A 310344Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, AT AROUND TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS DRY AIR IS INTRODUCED TO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 010730Z.// NNNN
ABIO10 PGTW 310800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/310800ZDEC2023-311800ZDEC2023// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310721ZDEC2023// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 37.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 38.5E, APPROXIMATELY 158 NM NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER. A 310344Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, AT AROUND TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS DRY AIR IS INTRODUCED TO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 310730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-31 16:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTIO30 FMEE 311358 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/1/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALVARO) 2.A POSITION 2023/12/31 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 39.1 E (TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/01 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 110 24H: 2024/01/01 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 110 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 110 36H: 2024/01/02 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 120 NW: 100 48H: 2024/01/02 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 60H: 2024/01/03 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 72H: 2024/01/03 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/04 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H: 2024/01/05 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, AND MORE SPECIFICALLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, THE SYSTEM'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED, TAKING ON A STRONGER CURVATURE, DESPITE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE. THE CENTRAL HOT CORE HAS GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATED, AS WITNESSED BY THE 0448Z SSMIS F-17 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A CONVECTIVE HOOK IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, AND THE CONFIRMATION OF THE 0825Z GPM IMAGE AT BOTH 89GHZ AND 37GHZ, WHERE A CIAN-COLORED CONVECTION RING CAN BE SEEN, INDICATIVELY CONFIRMING THE PRESENCE OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE LOWER LAYERS. THESE ELEMENTS, TOGETHER WITH A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURVED BAND ANALYSIS RAISED TO 2.5+ IN CI, ENABLED THE SYSTEM TO BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STATUS. A CONSULTATION BETWEEN MADAGASCAR'S METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AND CMRS IN REUNION, SHORTLY BEFORE 09Z, RESULTED IN THE SYSTEM BEING NAMED ALVARO. BEYOND 09Z, THE CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION GRADUALLY WIDENED, PROBABLY AS A RESULT OF MODERATE SHEAR STRESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, ALTHOUGH STRONG CONVECTION REMAINED AROUND THE CENTER. ALVARO IS CONTINUING HIS CROSSING OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY DIRECTING FLOW DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FURTHER NORTH. ITS TRACK WILL TAKE IT TO THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH IT MAY REACH ON MONDAY EVENING OR DURING THE NIGHT OF MONDAY TO TUESDAY. NUMERICAL FORECASTS ARE STILL WIDELY DISPERSED AS TO ITS SPEED AND LOCATION, ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE AMERICAN MODEL GFS AND THE PREVIOUS NETWORK ARE SLIGHTLY LESS MARKED. THE RSMC TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE LATEST IFS AND AROME RUNS IN TERMS OF TIMING. THE AMERICAN MODEL IS STILL TOO FAST, AND HAS THE SYSTEM STAGNATING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR; SOME GEFS MEMBERS HAVE IT CROSSING THE MAIN ISLAND, WITH AN EXIT INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN. THE CMRS FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THE DISPERSION OF WHICH REMAINS SIGNIFICANT, LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SYSTEM'S FINAL TRACK. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION SINCE THIS MORNING, WE'LL NOW HAVE TO DEAL WITH INCREASINGLY INSISTENT MID- AND UPPER-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, CAUSING THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE, OR EVEN WEAKEN IN THE SHORT TERM, BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER WESTERN MADAGASCAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST THEREFORE SUGGESTS A STAGNATION IN INTENSITY AS FAR AS MADAGASCAR, BEFORE A RAPID WEAKENING INLAND. AN OUTFLOW TO SEA IS POSSIBLE BY MID-WEEK, AT A WEAKENED STAGE UNDER THE CONTINUING EFFECT OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BRINGING DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND : MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE, FIANARANTSOA PROVINCE): - GALE-FORCE WINDS (20-40%) LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM MIDDAY ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. - HEAVY RAIN FROM MONDAY ON THE WEST COAST, SPREADING TO THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-200MM, LOCALLY 300M. - WAVES CLOSE TO 4M NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE AROUND MONDAY EVENING.=
最后于 2023-12-31 22:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTXS31 PGTW 311500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310721ZDEC2023 AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 311200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 39.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 39.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.9S 40.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 21.2S 42.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 21.2S 43.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 21.4S 45.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 22.2S 47.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 23.8S 50.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 24.8S 53.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 311500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 39.4E. 31DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 127 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311200Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 310730).// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 311500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.4S 39.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 127 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S HAS CONSOLIDATED QUICKLY AS DEPICTED IN RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. EIR IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT, WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CORE WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 311122Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT WITH A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT. THE AMSR2 37 GHZ IMAGERY INDICATES A BETTER-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE POSITIONED ABOUT 15 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR2 IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGHER RANGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES, CONSISTENT WITH THE WEAK, FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 04S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS CURRENTLY HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IS FORECAST TO ENVELOP THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 24. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 45 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT DAY THEN DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR, WITH LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. FURTHER WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 72, THE REMNANTS WILL RE-EMERGE OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN WITH GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION TO ABOUT 35 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH STRENGHTHENING SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS) SHOULD LIMIT THIS REINTENSIFICATION PHASE. TRACK MOTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH INCREASING CROSS-TRACK SPREAD LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120 LENDING LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-01 12:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：
