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WTIO30 FMEE 300710 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/1/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2023/12/30 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 36.0 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2023/12/30 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 24H: 2023/12/31 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 130 36H: 2023/12/31 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85 48H: 2024/01/01 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95 60H: 2024/01/01 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 110 72H: 2024/01/02 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 0 SW: 240 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 110 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: ***FIRST ADVISORY ON SYSTEM 01-20232024*** A WARM-CORE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUILDING UP OVER CENTRAL MOZAMBIQUE SINCE FRIDAY, IN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA BETWEEN A MONSOON FLOW SURGE FROM THE NORTH AND A TRADE FLOW SURGE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE SURFACE CENTER SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN MOSTLY POSITIONED OVER LAND OR NEAR THE COAST ON FRIDAY EVENING, NORTHEAST OF BEIRA, BUT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES, IT SEEMS TO HAVE MOVED OUT OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SINCE AROUND 00UTC THIS SATURDAY. THE GOOD CURVATURE OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS INDICATES THE FORMATION OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND INTENSE CONVECTION IS TAKING PLACE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. THE LATEST ASCAT PASSES SUGGEST WINDS AT 20/25KT. ALTHOUGH IT'S A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR AN INITIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION, WE CAN CLASSIFY THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 25KT. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ATTENUATED BY A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. IT WILL THEREFORE HEAD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SPREAD AMONG VARIOUS NWP MODEL FORECASTS IS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CONCERNING ITS SPEED OF MOVEMENT, PARTLY DEPENDENT ON ITS INTENSITY, WHICH IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST IFS AND AROME RUNS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT, WITH FAIRLY GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRADE FLOW TO THE SOUTH, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AND RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. FROM SUNDAY EVENING OR MONDAY, THE MID-LEVEL WEST TO SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR IS SET TO STRENGTHEN, BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, WHICH COULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT, DESPITE IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MONSOON FLOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS AN INTENSIFICATION UNTIL MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A LEVELLING OFF OF INTENSITY DUE TO SHEAR EFFECTS. THIS SHOULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO AT LEAST MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE (A HIGHER STAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT) BEFORE IT REACHES MADAGASCAR. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS : MOZAMBIQUE: HEAVY RAIN LOCALLY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN BEIRA AND QUELIMANE THIS SATURDAY, 100-200MM ADDING UP TO THE RAINFALL FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. IMPROVING FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS. MADAGASCAR (SOUTHERN MORONDAVA PROVINCE, NORTHERN TOLIARA PROVINCE): - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM MIDDAY MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING. - HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, TOTALS OF 100-200MM, LOCALLY 300M. - WAVES CLOSE TO 4M NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE FROM MONDAY EVENING.=
最后于 2023-12-30 16:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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ABIO10 PGTW 301230 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/301230Z-301800ZDEC2023// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.7S 36.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).// NNNN
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WTIO30 FMEE 301242 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/1/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2023/12/30 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 36.7 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.0/S 0.0/0 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2023/12/31 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 120 24H: 2023/12/31 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85 36H: 2024/01/01 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85 48H: 2024/01/01 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 95 60H: 2024/01/02 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SW: 140 NW: 110 72H: 2024/01/02 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: ***A TECHNICAL INCIDENT LED TO AN UNTIMELY INCREASE IN THE ADVISORY NUMEROTATION. RSMC LA REUNION APOLOGIZES FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE CAUSED.*** SINCE THIS SATURDAY MORNING, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED QUITE INTENSE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM-CORE LOW OFF THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, BUT WITHOUT DISPLAYING ANY PARTICULAR ORGANIZATION. THE CURVATURE OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO CONFIRM A CLOSED CIRCULATION. PARTIAL ASCAT DATA BETWEEN 06 AND 07UTC SHOW THAT WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN INITIALLY ESTIMATED, PROBABLY CLOSER TO 20KT AT 06Z. THE PERSISTENCE AND MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC SINCE LAST NIGHT ALLOW AN INITIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AT T1.0 AT 12UTC. THE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED NEAR 25KT, FAVORED BY THE PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION ABOVE THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ATTENUATED BY A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. IT WILL THEREFORE HEAD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SPREAD AMONG VARIOUS NWP MODEL FORECASTS IS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT REGARDING ITS SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST IFS, AROME AND GFS RUNS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT, WITH FAIRLY GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE TRADE FLOW TO THE SOUTH, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AND RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FROM SUNDAY EVENING OR MONDAY, THE MID-LEVEL WEST TO SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN, BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, WHICH COULD SLOW THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT, DESPITE IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MONSOON FLOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS AN INTENSIFICATION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A LEVELLING OFF OF INTENSITY DUE TO SHEAR EFFECTS. THIS SHOULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO AT LEAST MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE (A HIGHER STAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT) BEFORE IT REACHES MADAGASCAR. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS : MOZAMBIQUE : HEAVY RAIN LOCALLY THIS SATURDAY, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-200MM ADDING UP TO THE RAINFALL FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS. MADAGASCAR (SOUTHERN MORONDAVA PROVINCE, NORTHERN TOLIARA PROVINCE): - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM MIDDAY MONDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. - HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, TOTALS OF 100-200MM, LOCALLY 300M. - WAVE HEIGHTS CLOSE TO 4M NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE ON MONDAY EVENING.=
最后于 2023-12-30 21:14:59 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 301834 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/1/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2023/12/30 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 37.5 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.0/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2023/12/31 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 120 24H: 2023/12/31 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85 36H: 2024/01/01 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85 48H: 2024/01/01 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95 60H: 2024/01/02 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 175 72H: 2024/01/02 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: ***A TECHNICAL INCIDENT LED TO AN UNTIMELY INCREASE IN THE ADVISORY NUMEROTATION. RSMC LA REUNION APOLOGIZES FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE CAUSED.*** OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY, PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT, WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION AND COLDER TOPS, BUT IT IS NOT YET SHOWING ANY PARTICULAR SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW DATA, MAXIMUM WINDS ARE MAINTAINED AT 25KT. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEST-NORTH-WEST FLOW BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ATTENUATED BY A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ITS TRACK WILL TAKE IT TO THE WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH IT MAY REACH DURING MONDAY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE DISPERSION OF NUMERICAL FORECASTS IS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT FOR ITS SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST IFS, AROME AND GFS RUNS. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH FAIRLY GOOD POLAR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FROM SUNDAY EVENING OR MONDAY, THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR IS SET TO STRENGTHEN, BRINGING STRENGTHEN, BRINGING DRY AIR TO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. THIS CONTRIBUTION OF DRY AIR COULD SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM, DESPITE AN IMPROVEMENT IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE EQUATORIAL COAST (BETTER WARM AND HUMID SUPPLY FROM THE MONSOON FLOW). THE CURRENT FORECAST THEREFORE SUGGESTS AN INTENSIFICATION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LEVELLING OFF IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR. THE SYSTEM COULD THEN REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BEFORE APPROACHING MADAGASCAR ON MONDAY. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS : MOZAMBIQUE: HEAVY RAINS STILL LOCALLY TONIGHT OVER NAMPULA AND ZAMBEZIA PROVINCES, TOTALS OF 50-100MM ADDINGUP TO THE RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM SUNDAY. MADAGASCAR (SOUTHERN MORONDAVA PROVINCE, NORTHERN TOLIARA PROVINCE): - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM MIDDAY MONDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. - HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, TOTALS OF 100-200MM, LOCALLY 300M. - WAVE HEIGHTS CLOSE TO 4M NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE ON MONDAY EVENING.=
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WTIO30 FMEE 310103 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/1/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2023/12/31 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 38.1 E (TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2023/12/31 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 120 24H: 2024/01/01 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85 36H: 2024/01/01 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85 48H: 2024/01/02 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 155 60H: 2024/01/02 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY, WITH A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, ASCAT PASSES B AND C FROM 1853Z AND 1945Z SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION AROUND THE CENTER, BUT STILL ELONGATED, AND AN ASYMMETRICAL DISTRIBUTION OF WINDS. IN FACT, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXCLUSIVELY IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT, WITH 25KT AND HIGHER ACCELERATIONS UNDER THE CONVECTION. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THESE DATA AND THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION, MAXIMUM WINDS ARE MAINTAINED AT 25KT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CROSS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEST-NORTH-WEST DIRECTIONAL FLOW BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ATTENUATED BY A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ITS TRACK WILL TAKE IT TO THE WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH IT MAY REACH LATER ON MONDAY OR DURING THE NIGHT OF MONDAY TO TUESDAY. THE DISPERSION OF NUMERICAL FORECASTS IS QUITE SIGNIFICANT FOR ITS SPEED OF MOVEMENT, WITH A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS AND THE OTHER MODELS. THE TRACK FORECASTED BY RSMC IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST RUNS BY IFS AND AROME IN TERMS OF TIMING. ON THE OTHER HAND, UNTIL NOW, THE GFS SCENARIO, WHICH PROPOSED AN EMERGENCE OF THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR, WAS RELATIVELY ISOLATED (THE OTHERS SUGGESTED THE FORMATION OF A SECOND DISTINCT MINIMUM TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR). THE LATEST RUNS OF THE IFS AND AROME DETERMINIST MODELS, AS WELL AS EUROPEAN PROBABILISTS, ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THIS OPTION. THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY THE SCENARIO FOLLOWED BY RSMC, BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY EXCLUDED. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH FAIRLY GOOD POLAR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FROM SUNDAY EVENING OR MONDAY, THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR IS SET TO STRENGTHEN, BRINGING STRENGTHEN, BRINGING DRY AIR TO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. THIS CONTRIBUTION OF DRY AIR COULD SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM, DESPITE AN IMPROVEMENT IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE EQUATORIAL COAST (BETTER WARM AND HUMID SUPPLY FROM THE MONSOON FLOW). THE CURRENT FORECAST THEREFORE SUGGESTS AN INTENSIFICATION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LEVELLING OFF IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR. THE SYSTEM COULD THEN REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BEFORE APPROACHING MADAGASCAR ON MONDAY. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND : MOZAMBIQUE: GRADUAL EASING OF RAINFALL ON SUNDAY. MADAGASCAR (SOUTHERN MORONDAVA PROVINCE, NORTHERN TOLIARA PROVINCE, FIANARANTSOA PROVINCE): - GALE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY TO ARRIVE FROM MIDDAY ON MONDAY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. - HEAVY RAIN FROM MONDAY ON THE WEST COAST, EXTENDING TO THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 100-200MM, LOCALLY 300M. - WAVES CLOSE TO 4M NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE AROUND MONDAY EVENING.=
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ABIO10 PGTW 310200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/310200ZDEC2023-311800ZJAN2024// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7S 37.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 37.6E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A BULLSEYE 311930Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION BUILDING TO THE EAST, WHILE A PATCH OF HIGH WIND SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST DISRUPTS EXISTING CONVECTION IN THE REGION, CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 24 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.// NNNN
