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WTIO30 FMEE 311848 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/1/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALVARO) 2.A POSITION 2023/12/31 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 40.0 E (TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 31 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 0 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/01 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/01 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 95 36H: 2024/01/02 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 48H: 2024/01/02 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0 60H: 2024/01/03 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 55 72H: 2024/01/03 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/04 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.0 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, ALVARO HAS KEPT SHOWING SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION. ITS CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AND WRAPPED UP THAN AT 12UTC, WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE COOLED NEAR -80C. THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE, WITH AN EVACUATION CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST. MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE CURVED BAND PATTERN IMPROVEMENT, AND A CONVECTIVE CORE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY VISIBLE ON 37GHZ IMAGES. FOR THE MOMENT, THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES A DT OF 3.0. THESE ELEMENTS MAKE IT POSSIBLE TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY TO 40KT, IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE PRECISE OBJECTIVE DATA. RMK: THE BEST-TRACK HAS BEEN RETOUCHED, IN PARTICULAR WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 998HPA AT 12UTC INSTEAD OF 1000HPA. ALVARO IS ACCELERATING UNDER A WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. IT SHOULD LAND ON THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER CROSSING THE MALAGASY LANDMASS ON TUESDAY, THE VORTEX SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE OCEAN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHICH REMAINS WIDELY DISPERSED, ESPECIALLY AFTER TUESDAY. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING, THEN DURING MONDAY, WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST AND PROBABLY ATTACK THE INNER CONVECTIVE CORE. HOWEVER, THESE MORE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE A LITTLE TOO LATE TO REALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR. THE TREND TOWARDS INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE SET TO CONTINUE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ALVARO TO BECOME A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER A CLASSIC WEAKENING OVERLAND, THE VORTEX COULD MORE OR LESS REBUILD ON TUESDAY NIGHT, EMERGING EAST OF MADAGASCAR THANKS TO GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE. A SHORT-LIVED RELATIVE REINTENSIFICATION IS THEN POSSIBLE, BUT THE INCREASING WIND SHEAR SHOULD THEN WEAKEN THE STORM AND MAKE IT ASYMMETRICAL FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR : - ONSET OF GALE-FORCE WINDS ON TOLIARA PROVINCE LIKELY FROM MIDDAY ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE LOCAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA. - HEAVY RAIN AND RISK OF FLASH-FLOODS FROM MONDAY ON THE WEST COAST, SPREADING TO THE EAST COAST (FIANARANTSOA PROVINCE) ON TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-200MM, LOCALLY 300M, ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA NEAR MANAKARA. - SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6M NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE MONDAY BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z.=
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WTIO30 FMEE 010035 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/1/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALVARO) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/01 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 40.7 E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/01 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 24H: 2024/01/02 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 185 36H: 2024/01/02 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 48H: 2024/01/03 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 0 60H: 2024/01/03 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 55 72H: 2024/01/04 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/05 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: ***HAPPY NEW YEAR 2024 FROM RSMC LA REUNION*** FT=CI=3.0+ OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, ALVARO HAS MAINTAINED A CURVED BAND PATTERN WRAPPING 0.6/0.75 AROUND, WHILE DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED A LITTLE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES A DT OF 3.0+ AND A PT OF 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. A CIRRUS ARC HAS APPEARED JUST BEFORE 00Z TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, SUGGESTING A PROBABLE INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR. THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR ARE ALSO SHOWN BY THE 2218Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS, INDICATING THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 40KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ANALYSIS AND ALSO CLOSE TO DMINT/DPRINT ESTIMATES. ALVARO IS STILL BEING STEERED BY A WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LAND ON THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AFTER CROSSING THE MALAGASY LANDMASS ON TUESDAY, THE VORTEX SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE OCEAN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHICH STILL DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT SPREAD, ESPECIALLY AFTER TUESDAY. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE THIS MONDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASING MID- AND UPPER-TROPOSPHERE WIND SHEAR, WHICH COULD CAUSE A DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST AND ATTACK THE CONVECTIVE CORE. THE FORECAST INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP. A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BEFORE LANDFALL HAS BEEN CONSIDERED IN THE PRESENT FORECAST, IN LINE WITH THE LATEST IFS AND AROME RUNS. HOWEVER, THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA CAST DOUBT ON THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER A CLASSIC WEAKENING OVERLAND, THE VORTEX COULD MORE OR LESS RECONSOLIDATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, EMERGING TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR THANKS TO GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE. A RELATIVE REINTENSIFICATION IS THEN TEMPORARILY POSSIBLE, BUT THE INCREASING WIND SHEAR SHOULD THEN WEAKEN IT AND MAKE IT ASYMMETRICAL FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING ONWARDS. IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR : - ONSET OF GALE-FORCE WINDS ON TOLIARA PROVINCE LIKELY FROM MIDDAY ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS VERY LOCALLY NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA. - HEAVY RAIN AND RISK OF FLASH-FLOODS FROM MONDAY ON THE WEST COAST, SPREADING TO THE EAST COAST (FIANARANTSOA PROVINCE) ON TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-200MM, LOCALLY 300M, ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA NEAR MANAKARA. - SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6M NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE MONDAY BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z.=
最后于 2024-01-01 10:05:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 002 WTXS31 PGTW 010300 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 40.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 40.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 20.9S 42.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 21.0S 44.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 21.2S 46.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 41.3E. 01JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.//
WTXS31 PGTW 010300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 40.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 40.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 20.9S 42.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 21.0S 44.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 21.2S 46.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 21.5S 47.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 22.4S 49.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 24.7S 52.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 41.3E. 01JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 010300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.7S 40.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 96 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS OVERALL MAINTAINED ITS CORE CONVECTION EVEN AS THE CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM NORTH TO EAST HAVE EXPANDED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED A MICROWAVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) FEATURE IN THE 312216Z AMSR2 IMAGE AND EXTRAPOLATION OF LOW CLOUD LINES FEEDING INTO A PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SUPPORTED BY THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 312100Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ALVARO WILL TRACK MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR AROUND TAU 18, DRAG ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN THEN EXIT INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AFTER TAU 48. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL, AT BEST, MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION, INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL ERODE AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 24. HOWEVER, AFTER IT EXITS BACK OVER WATER, INCREASED MOISTURE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL REVIVE THE SYSTEM BACK TO 35KTS. BY TAU 96, EXTREMELY HIGH VWS, COOLING SST, AND INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TC 04S WILL NOT RECOVER FROM DISSIPATION OVER MADAGASCAR. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING OUT TO 310NM BY TAU 96. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF TRACKING OVER RUGGED TERRAIN, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-01 13:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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全球热带气旋监测公报
南印度洋热带风暴“阿尔瓦罗”生成
时 间：1日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“阿尔瓦罗”，ALVARO
中心位置：南纬21.0度、东经40.7度
强度等级：热带风暴
最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：994百帕
参考位置：马达加斯加塔那那利佛西偏南方向约750公里的莫桑比克海峡海面上
变化过程：“阿尔瓦罗”生成并加强到8级
预报结论：“阿尔瓦罗”将以每小时40-45公里的速度向偏东方向快速移动，强度将有所加强，将于今天夜间登陆马达加斯加西部沿海，登陆后减弱为热带低压。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月01日08时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 010658 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/1/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALVARO) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/01 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 41.7 E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/01 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85 24H: 2024/01/02 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 155 36H: 2024/01/02 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 48H: 2024/01/03 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95 60H: 2024/01/03 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 315 SW: 220 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 95 72H: 2024/01/04 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 335 SW: 230 NW: 205 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/05 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: ***HAPPY NEW YEAR 2024 FROM RSMC LA REUNION*** T=CI=3.5+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ALVARO HAS MAINTAINED A CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION, BUT IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS, AN EYE HAS BEGUN TO APPEAR. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES A CI OF 3.5+, BUT THIS ESTIMATE IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE RAPIDLY TO A VALUE CLOSER TO 4.0 OR EVEN HIGHER FOR THE NEXT BULLETIN. FOR THE TIME BEING, ALVARO HAS PASSED THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 50KT OR EVEN 55KT. NO CHANGE IN TRACK, ALVARO IS FOLLOWING THE WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EQUATOR LOCATED FURTHER NORTH, AND A WEAK TROUGH PASSING FURTHER SOUTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LAND ON THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AFTER CROSSING MADAGASCAR ON TUESDAY, THE VORTEX SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR IN THE MANAKARA AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SPEED AT WHICH ALVARO IS MOVING ON LAND, LEAVING A TIME FRAME FOR ITS EMERGENCE AT SEA OF ALMOST 6 HOURS. THEREAFTER, GUIDED BY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND BY THE FLOW FURTHER SOUTH, ALVARO WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK IN A GENERAL SOUTH-EASTERLY DIRECTION, BRINGING IT UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITHIN WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUALLY WEAKEN. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ALVARO CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, SLIGHTLY LIMITED BY MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO LANDFALL REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WHICH ARE MORE LOCALIZED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, SET IN, BUT THE RSMC SCENARIO ARGUES FOR AN INTENSIFICATION UP TO LANDFALL. AFTER A CLASSIC WEAKENING INLAND, ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SIGNIFICANT, THE VORTEX SHOULD RECONSOLIDATE LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EMERGE TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR THANKS TO GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE. A REINTENSIFICATION IS THEN POSSIBLE FOR ALMOST 24 HOURS, BUT THE INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD THEN CONTINUALLY WEAKEN ALVARO FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR (BY DEFAULT, THE CHRONOLOGY OF EVENTS IS GIVEN IN UTC): - ONSET OF GALE-FORCE WINDS ON TOLIARA PROVINCE LIKELY FROM MIDDAY ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS VERY LOCALLY NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA. - HEAVY RAIN AND RISK OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM MONDAY ON THE WEST COAST, EXTENDING TO THE EAST COAST (FIANARANTSOA PROVINCE) ON TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 100-200MM DURING THE CROSSING EPISODE. IN THE MANAKARA AREA, RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVIER (LOCALLY 400MM) DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GENERATED BY THE CONVERGENCE OF FLOWS, BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM. - SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6M NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE MONDAY BETWEEN 12 AND 18UTC.=
最后于 2024-01-01 15:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“阿尔瓦罗”向东偏南方向移动
时 间：1日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“阿尔瓦罗”，ALVARO
中心位置：南纬21.3度、东经41.7度
强度等级：强热带风暴
最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：993百帕
参考位置：马达加斯加马纳卡拉偏西方向约660公里的莫桑比克海峡海面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“阿尔瓦罗”由7级加强到10级
预报结论：“阿尔瓦罗”将以每小时40-45公里的速度向东偏南方向快速移动，强度变化不大，将于今天夜间登陆马达加斯加西部沿海，登陆后减弱为热带低压。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月01日14时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 011256 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/1/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALVARO) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/01 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 42.9 E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 65 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/02 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 95 24H: 2024/01/02 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 36H: 2024/01/03 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 0 48H: 2024/01/03 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 0 60H: 2024/01/04 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 0 72H: 2024/01/04 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/05 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: ***HAPPY NEW YEAR 2024 FROM RSMC LA REUNION*** T=CI=4.0+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ALVARO'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED, PRESENTING A DEVELOPING EYE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, BUT THIS DID NOT LAST AND MIGRATED BACK INTO A CURVED BAND. AT 1045UTC, THE GCOM MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN THE LOWER LAYERS, COINCIDING WITH A SLIGHTLY LESS CLEAR VISIBLE CLOUD PATTERN. IN THIS CONFIGURATION, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS ESTIMATED MEAN WINDS OF AROUND 60KT, I.E. AT THE MAXIMUM THRESHOLD FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. WITHOUT A RECENT ASCAT PASS AND IN THE ABSENCE OF IN-SITU MEASUREMENTS, IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY THAT CYCLONIC WINDS WILL BE REACHED JUST BEFORE ALVARO'S LANDFALL. NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, ALVARO IS FOLLOWING THE WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EQUATOR LOCATED FURTHER NORTH, AND A WEAK TROUGH PASSING FURTHER SOUTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AFTER CROSSING MADAGASCAR ON TUESDAY, THE VORTEX SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR IN THE MANAKARA AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SPEED AT WHICH ALVARO IS MOVING ON LAND, LEAVING A TIME FRAME FOR ITS EMERGENCE AT SEA OF ALMOST 6 HOURS. THEREAFTER, GUIDED BY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORTIFYING ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN MASCARENE ISLANDS AND BY THE FLOW FURTHER SOUTH, ALVARO WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK IN A GENERAL SOUTH-EASTERLY DIRECTION, BRINGING IT UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITHIN WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUALLY WEAKEN. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ALVARO CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH SHEAR REMAINING MODERATE AND OCEAN POTENTIAL VERY HIGH NEAR THE MALAGASY COAST. THE RSMC INTENSITY FORECAST THEREFORE MAINTAINS AN INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL. AFTER A CLASSIC WEAKENING INLAND, ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONSEQUENTIAL, THE VORTEX SHOULD RECONSOLIDATE LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EMERGE EAST OF MADAGASCAR THANKS TO GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THIS POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION COULD BE REDUCED IF THE VORTEX WEAKENS MORE MARKEDLY AS IT CROSSES MADAGASCAR. IN THE CASE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST, REINTENSIFICATION IS THEN POSSIBLE FOR ALMOST 24 HOURS, BUT THE INCREASE IN SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH-WESTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN CONTINUALLY WEAKEN ALVARO FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR (BY DEFAULT, THE CHRONOLOGY OF EVENTS IS GIVEN IN UTC): - GALE FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY ARRIVING OVER THE PROVINCE OF TOLIARA AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. POSSIBLE CYCLONIC-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE POINT OF IMPACT. - HEAVY RAINS AND RISK OF LOCAL FLOODING FROM MONDAY ONWARDS ON THE WEST COAST, EXTENDING ON TUESDAY TO THE EAST COAST (FIANARANTSOA PROVINCE). ACCUMULATIONS OF 100-200MM DURING THE CROSSING EPISODE. IN THE MANAKARA SECTOR AND FURTHER SOUTH, RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVIER (LOCALLY 400MM) DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GENERATED BY THE CONVERGENCE OF FLOWS, BEFORE THE SYSTEM PASSES. - AVERAGE WAVES OF 4 TO 6M NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE ON MONDAY BETWEEN 12UTC AND 18UTC.=
最后于 2024-01-01 21:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：
