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WTIO30 FMEE 030035 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/1/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALVARO) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/03 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9 S / 49.3 E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 65 NW: 65 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/03 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0 24H: 2024/01/04 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 0 36H: 2024/01/04 12 UTC: 26.2 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 390 SW: 285 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 0 48H: 2024/01/05 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 0 60H: 2024/01/05 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 270 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: PT=CI=3.5- CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS AT SEA, LEAVING A CLOUDY CONFIGURATION IN CDO MOST PROBABLY GENERATED BY THE PRESENCE OF LAND. AN ANALYSIS OF INTENSITY IN THIS CDO CONFIGURATION WOULD GIVE AN ESTIMATE OF 3.5, I.E. A STRONG TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD. HOWEVER, FOLLOWING DVORAK'S CONSTRAINTS AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE PROBABLE INFLUENCE OF THE EARTH ON THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WHICH IS VERY MARKED IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, IT IS PREFERABLE TO LIMIT OURSELVES TO A VALUE OF 3.5-. ALVARO IS THEREFORE CLASSIFIED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. THE GCOM PASS OF 2223UTC IMPROVES THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER AND VALIDATES THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF AN EYE. LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, AS ALVARO FOLLOWS THE DIRECTIONAL FLOW INDUCED BY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS. ALVARO CONTINUES TO FOLLOW A GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK AT SEA. THIS TRACK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT, ALTHOUGH SPEED COULD BE A LITTLE MORE MARKED IN THE FINAL STAGES. BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN, ALVARO IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG REINTENSIFICATION PHASE OVER A SHORT PERIOD (12H AT MOST), BENEFITING FROM GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST. NEVERTHELESS, THE PERSISTENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR (MORE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM) SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR A PEAK AT THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE, ALTHOUGH THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD COULD BE REACHED VERY TEMPORARILY. THEREAFTER, AS IT INTERACTS WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRY AIR INTRUSION, ALVARO WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK. IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR : - WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 100KM/H ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE NIGHT IN THE PROVINCE OF FIANARANTSOA, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. - HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED OVER FIANARANTSOA PROVINCE, WITH ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 100 TO 300MM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. - THE SEA WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH BETWEEN MAHANORO AND TAOLAGNARO, WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 5M UNTIL TOMORROW WEDNESDAY.=
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WTXS31 PGTW 030300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 22.7S 49.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 49.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.2S 51.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 26.2S 53.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 28.2S 56.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 29.2S 58.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 50.3E. 03JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z AND 040300Z. // NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 030300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 22.7S 49.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 262 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE BURST THAT IS FULLY OBSCURING THE NEWLY FORMED LLCC. A 030027Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A LINGERING DISSONANCE BETWEEN A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND A PARTIALLY VISIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TRAILING SLIGHTLY BEHIND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AUTOMATED AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH INDICATE 35-50KTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 030000Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 04S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF NER TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WARM SSTS, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW 04S TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 45KTS AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AFTER TAU 12, INCREASING VWS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, COOLING SSTS AND DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN 04S AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY ACCELERATES INTO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IF 04S IS ABLE TO INTENSIFY BEYOND THE ANTICIPATED CEILING NEAR 45KTS, THE SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN STORM FORCE INTENSITY LONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER, IT IS UNLIKELY THE SYSTEM WILL SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO ATTAIN ANY MEASURABLE SUB-TROPICAL OR EXTRA-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID FOR THE SUITE OF RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHOSE AGREEMENT IS POOR. GFS AND SHIPS SHOW A SMALL CLIMB THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM THROUGH DISSIPATION WHILE THE REMAINING MEMBERS INTENSIFY 04S TO NEARLY 60KTS BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MORE INLINE WITH GFS AND DECAY-SHIPS ALBEIT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“阿尔瓦罗”向东南方向移动
时 间：3日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“阿尔瓦罗”，ALVARO
中心位置：南纬21.9度、东经49.3度
强度等级：热带风暴
最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：990百帕
参考位置：马达加斯加陶拉纳鲁东北方向约420公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“阿尔瓦罗”由8级加强到9级
预报结论：“阿尔瓦罗”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向西南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月03日08时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 030642 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/1/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALVARO) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/03 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3 S / 50.7 E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 65 NW: 65 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/03 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 120 24H: 2024/01/04 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 120 36H: 2024/01/04 18 UTC: 27.6 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SW: 205 NW: 165 48H: 2024/01/05 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 325 SW: 215 NW: 185 60H: 2024/01/05 18 UTC: 28.9 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 325 SW: 215 NW: 185 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: BASED ON THE LATEST GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 2206Z AND SSMIS FROM 0028Z, 0219Z AND 0308Z, ALVARO'S BESTRACK HAS BEEN REVISED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY, WITH A SLIGHTLY EARLIER OUTFLOW TO SEA EAST OF MADAGASCAR. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE SYSTEM HAS ENCOUNTERED A 25KT WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS EXPOSED ITS CENTER (VISIBLE IN THE IMAGE). IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DATA AVAILABLE, THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 45KT. IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE PHILOSOPHY OF MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHERN MASCARENE ISLANDS REMAINS UNCHANGED. HOWEVER, TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POSITION OBSERVED FURTHER SOUTH AND THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODELS, THE TRACK HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY ACCELERATED. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ALVARO WILL GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ALLOWING DRY AIR TO INTRUDE. THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR A MAXIMUM OF 12 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION PHASE AND LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“阿尔瓦罗”向东南方向移动
时 间：3日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“阿尔瓦罗”，ALVARO
中心位置：南纬23.3度、东经50.7度
强度等级：热带风暴
最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：990百帕
参考位置：法属留尼旺西偏南方向约560公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“阿尔瓦罗”由6级加强到9级
预报结论：“阿尔瓦罗”将以每小时25公里的速度向东南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月03日14时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 031245 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/1/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALVARO) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/03 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.1 S / 51.7 E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/04 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 110 24H: 2024/01/04 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 110 36H: 2024/01/05 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 120 48H: 2024/01/05 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 195 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: THE LOCATION OF TROPICAL STORM'S CENTER ALVARO HAS BEEN DETERMINED BY USING THE LATEST GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 1017Z AND VISIBLE FROM 12Z. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND THE SYSTEM HAS ENCOUNTERED A 30KT WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS EXPOSED ITS CENTER (VISIBLE IN THE VISIBLE IMAGE). IN LINE WITH THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DATA AVAILABLE, THE SYSTEM REMAINS AT THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE, BUT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40KT. IN TERMS OF TRACK, ALVARO IS STILL BEING STEERED BY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES. HOWEVER, DUE TO ITS WEAKENING, THE STORM IS MORE INFLUENCED BY LOW-LEVEL FLOWS, LEADING IT TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ALVARO WILL GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ALLOWING DRY AIR TO INTRUDE. THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR A MAXIMUM OF 12 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION PHASE AND LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
最后于 2024-01-03 21:25:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 031500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 24.2S 51.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 51.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 26.1S 53.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 28.2S 56.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 29.7S 59.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 52.2E. 03JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 299 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031200Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z AND 041500Z. // NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 031500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 24.2S 51.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 299 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT TC 04S (ALVARO) IS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING UNDER PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE LATEST IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NO FULLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN AREA OF DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 031015Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC JUST NORTHWEST OF THE HEAD OF A COMMA-SHAPED REGION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, SUGGESTIVE OF THE ONSET OF SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LLCC SEEN IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL AVERAGE OF AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OUTLINED BELOW. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A SUBTROPICAL JET MAX TO THE SOUTHEAST, BEING OFFSET BY MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STEADILY DECREASING SSTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) - SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF A MADAGASCAR TO EAST OF MAURITIUS. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 031130Z CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 030900Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 26-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING OTHER THAN THE FORECAST DURATION, WHICH IS NOW TRUNCATED TO 36 HOURS. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 04S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE SHORT FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STEERING RIDGE COMPLEX. A SLIGHT SLOWDOWN IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE STEERING GRADIENT LOOSENS UP A BIT. HAVING NOW BEEN OVERCOME BY THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR, THE VORTEX HAS DECOUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX NOW FULLY EXPOSED. THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH IN A WEDGE OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS, AND EFFECTIVELY SQUASH ANY HOPE OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE REAL QUESTION IS WHICH WILL OCCUR FIRST; SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT), OR DISSIPATION. STT HAS LIKELY ALREADY STARTED AS THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS, BUT THE RECENT DECOUPLING MEANS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RELATIVELY QUICKLY. THE RESULT IS THAT TC 04S WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY COMPLETING STT. REGARDLESS, THE SYSTEM WILL NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH MINIMAL ALONG AND CROSS-TRACK SPREAD, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE INDICATING INTENSIFICATION UP TO 50 KNOTS, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE DECAY SHIPS (BOTH GFS AND NAVGEM VERSIONS) WHICH ARE THE SOLE OUTLIERS SHOWING STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-04 04:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 031834 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/1/20232024 1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1 (ALVARO) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/03 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.4 S / 52.9 E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/04 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 0 24H: 2024/01/04 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 530 SW: 295 NW: 260 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 270 NW: 0 36H: 2024/01/05 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 445 SW: 295 NW: 280 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 0 48H: 2024/01/05 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 415 SW: 350 NW: 0 60H: 2024/01/06 06 UTC: 30.4 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 415 SW: 360 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, ALVARO HAS CONTINUED TO SUFFER FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, LARGELY APPARENT ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES, APPEARS INCREASINGLY ELONGATED ON THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES ( 1536Z SSMIS). IN THE LATEST IMAGES, THE DEEP CONVECTION STILL PRESENT IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT APPEARS TO BE COLLAPSING. IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN MODEL ANALYSES, ALVARO HAS BEEN RECLASSIFIED A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35KT. IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, ALVARO IS STILL BEING STEERED BY THE RIDGE OF UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING NORTH OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS. IT FAVOURS A FAST MOVEMENT SOUTHEASTWARDS AT SHORT RANGE, THEN A SLOWER MOVEMENT EASTWARDS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CONTRARY FLOWS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALVARO HAS BEGUN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET, PRESENT TO ITS WEST AND SOUTH. BY TOMORROW, AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LATTER, THE SYSTEM COULD SLIGHTLY REINTENSIFY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE CENTER SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
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WTXS31 PGTW 040300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 26.3S 54.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.3S 54.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 28.4S 57.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 26.8S 54.9E. 04JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353 NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 04S IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT TC 04S (ALVARO) HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED, WITH AN ELONGATING, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ISOLATED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER WATER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE WELL- ESTABLISHED STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SUPPORT FROM UPPER- LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SHOULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AROUND 35 KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 17 FEET.// NNNN
