孟加拉湾98B - 1.7N 87.3E 北印度洋

W 666 2024-01-05 22:38:31 978

98B INVEST 240105 1200 1.7N 87.3E IO 15 1009

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  • ygsj24 W 2024-01-09 18:00:03
    0 引用 2
    ABIO10 PGTW 090330
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
    REISSUED/090330Z-091800ZJAN2024//
    RMKS/
    1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
       A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
       B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
          (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.8N 
    82.5E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT 
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING 
    ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW 
    LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO 
    STRONG (15-25 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH STRONG 
    WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-
    28C) ARE CONDUCIVE, BUT VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG 
    AND PREVENT DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD 
    INTO THE ARABIAN SEA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
    SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
    PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
    DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
    IS LOW.
         (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
       C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
       A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
       B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
          (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.9S 
    78.7E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.  RECENT 
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION 
    PERSISTING ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF A DEVELOPING 
    LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CIRCULATION IS PASSING OVER VERY 
    WARM WATER (27-28C) BUT CURRENTLY LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO 
    STRONG (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS EXPECTED TO 
    TRACK EQUATORWARD INTO A ZONE OF HIGHER SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
    MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE 
    POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
         (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
       C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
    3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADD LOW AREAS IN PARA 1.B.(1) AND 2.B.
    (1).//
    NNNN
  • ygsj24 W 2024-01-10 04:05:00
    0 引用 3

  • ygsj24 W 2024-01-13 19:25:00
    0 引用 4

    最后于 2024-02-04 20:00:01 被ygsj24编辑 ,原因:
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