2. 热带气旋讨论
  3. LOW - 查戈斯群岛东南96S - 7.2S 78.7E

LOW - 查戈斯群岛东南96S - 7.2S 78.7E 西南印度洋

DG Meow 2024-01-08 15:14:16 1357 
SH, 96, 2024010712,   , BEST,   0,  87S,  758E,  15, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  , 
SH, 96, 2024010718,   , BEST,   0,  88S,  770E,  15, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  , 
SH, 96, 2024010800,   , BEST,   0,  88S,  779E,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
最后于 2024-01-10 22:00:34 被Meow编辑 ，原因：
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  • Meow 楼主 DG 2024-01-09 00:24:27
    0 引用 2楼

    印度洋马斯克林群岛北部疑似区域：
    尽管目前卫星图像上没有观察到任何前兆，但确定性和概率模型一致表明，从周四到周五，在马斯克林群岛北部可能会形成一个低气压区。在有利的环境条件下（剪切较小，季风槽中湿度充足，低层辐散足够），这个低气压区可能会迅速加强，并在下周达到中度热带风暴的阶段。目前有关模型之间存在分歧，对于这一发展的时间表仍有待明确，但目前形成热带风暴的风险已经逐渐升高。随后，这个低气压区的路径可能首先向西呈抛物线运动，然后弯曲向南，然后向东南方向弯曲，最终可能在下一周初/中期距离马达加斯加东部和马斯克林群岛不远处经过。星期五形成热带风暴的风险较低，然后从星期六开始在马斯克林群岛北部逐渐升高。

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  • ygsj24 W 2024-01-09 18:00:03
    0 引用 3楼 
    ABIO10 PGTW 090330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/090330Z-091800ZJAN2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.8N 
82.5E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING 
ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO 
STRONG (15-25 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH STRONG 
WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-
28C) ARE CONDUCIVE, BUT VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG 
AND PREVENT DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD 
INTO THE ARABIAN SEA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.9S 
78.7E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.  RECENT 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION 
PERSISTING ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF A DEVELOPING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CIRCULATION IS PASSING OVER VERY 
WARM WATER (27-28C) BUT CURRENTLY LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS EXPECTED TO 
TRACK EQUATORWARD INTO A ZONE OF HIGHER SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADD LOW AREAS IN PARA 1.B.(1) AND 2.B.
(1).//
NNNN
  • Meow 楼主 DG 2024-01-10 22:00:14
    0 引用 4楼

    5天内MTS机会很高

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  • ygsj24 W 2024-01-11 18:00:00
    0 引用 5楼 
    ABIO10 PGTW 110200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/110200Z-111800ZJAN2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.2S 78.7E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.6S 
62.7E, APPROXIMATELY 583 NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH SHALLOW CUMULIFORM CLOUD LINES WRAPPING 
CYCLONICALLY INTO THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 
GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION IS EVIDENT IN RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
FIELDS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30-31 
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED 
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARD MAURITIUS AS IT STEADILY 
INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE:DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 2.B. (1) AND ADDED 
LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2) //
NNNN
  • ygsj24 W 2024-01-12 19:20:00
    0 引用 6楼

    最后于 2024-02-04 20:00:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：
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