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WTXS31 PGTW 121500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751ZJAN2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 56.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 56.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.4S 55.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.9S 54.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 17.5S 54.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.5S 54.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 19.9S 55.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 21.7S 58.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 23.0S 60.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 56.4E. 12JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121200Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z.// 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 120800). NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 121500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.3S 56.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 410 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, WITH WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WHILE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS, DEEP CONVECTIVE TOWERS CONTINUE TO FIRE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CENTER BUT ARE STRUGGLING TO WRAP UPSHEAR. A 121011Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE OF MODERATE CONVECTION, WITH STRONG INFLOW BANDS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN SIDES OF THE LLCC AND A WEAK LOW EMISSIVITY REGION (LER) DEFINING THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE DEVELOPING LER IN THE AMSR2 IMAGE AND A DIMPLE FEATURE IN THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DRAMATICALLY IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND THE T2.5 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH PGTW AND DEMS. ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (0-5 KNOTS) OF EASTERLY SHEAR, DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, ZESTY SSTS AND HIGH OHC OVER 100 KJ PER CM3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR CENTERED TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE STEERING RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TRACK SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OR SO OF THE FORECAST AS THE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 36, THE TRACK BEGINS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWARD AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO REORIENT TO A MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, TC 05S WILL BE FIRMLY SET UPON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AS THE RIDGE COMPLETES IS REORIENTATION PHASE, AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN LA REUNION AND MAURITIUS AROUND TAU 96, THEN CONTINUE INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENT IS OPTIMUM FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION ONCE THE LLCC FULLY CONSOLIDATES, WHICH IS EXPECTED IMMINENTLY. OPTIMUM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AT LEAST 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS AFTER THAT, AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION UP TO AT LEAST 105 KNOTS, AND POTENTIAL HIGHER, IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM REACHING THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO. A RAPID DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SSTS, ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP INCREASE IN SHEAR WILL INDUCE A SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING POLEWARD. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE EXCEPT NAVGEM, WHICH IS FAR TO THE EAST, IS CONFINED TO A 105NM ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 72. HOWEVER, THE NAVGEM IS PULLING THE CONSENSUS MEAN EASTWARD SUCH THAT IT MARKS THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS TO THE LEFT, OR WEST, OF THE MEAN THROUGH TAU 72 WHILE THE ECMWF INTERMEDIATE FORECAST MARKS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE, AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVER LA REUNION. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS TRACKER THROUGH TAU 72 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AFTER TAU 72, THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPREAD OUT, PARTICULARLY IN THE ALONG-TRACK DIRECTION, WITH SPREAD INCREASING TO AT LEAST 350NM BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GALWEM TRACKERS. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH TAU 120, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY (RI), WITH MULTIPLE RI AIDS TRIGGERING. ADDITIONALLY, THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE RI PROBABILITIES ARE SET AT 95 PERCENT THROUGH TAU 60, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48. ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS AGREE ON A LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY AFTER TAU 72, FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WEAKENING PHASE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACKS ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE, CLOSE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE RI GUIDANCE, THROUGH TAU 48, THEN CLOSELY TRACKS THE CONSENSUS MEAN THEREAFTER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-13 05:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTIO30 FMEE 121833 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/2/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2024/01/12 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 56.4 E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 35 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/13 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/13 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/14 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/14 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 60H: 2024/01/15 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/15 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/16 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 120H: 2024/01/17 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 350 SW: 250 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5 THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02-20232024 HAS GRADUALLY DETERIORATED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, WITH CLOUD TOPS BECOMING CONSIDERABLY WARMER. MODERATE EASTERLY STRESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE. DESPITE THIS, THERE ARE OTHER OBJECTIVE SIGNS THAT THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE SEEMS TO BE GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING, AS EVIDENCED BY THE LATEST MICROWAVE GMI PASSES FROM 1457Z AND AMSR-2 FROM 1013Z, WHICH SHOW A CLOSED CONVECTIVE RING AT 37GHZ. THIS VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS TEMPORARY, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IN THE SHORT TERM. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN MEAN WIND, GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONTEXT, AND REMAINS IN LINE WITH SUBJECTIVE (JTWC - KNES) AND OBJECTIVE (ADT-AIDT) ESTIMATES, AS WELL AS WITH THE DPRINT/DMINT AVERAGE. THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS STEERED BY A RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL FORCE IT TO HEAD SOUTH-WEST TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER, THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM WOULD LEAD IT TO BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHER-ALTITUDE DIRECTIONAL FLOW, ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE, WHICH WOULD FORCE IT TO TURN SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS, WHILE SLOWING DOWN CLOSE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS AT THE END OF SUNDAY TO MONDAY OR MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS MORE SOUTHERLY THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND TAKES THE METEOR AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE TO THE REUNION ISLAND ON MONDAY MORNING. THIS CHANGE OF PHILOSOPHY IS BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE (EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN), WHICH SHIFTS THE TRACK FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH, WHILE BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER. THE DISPERSION OF THE ENSEMBLE MODEL REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AT THESE TIMES, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE PASSAGE DISTANCES NEAR THE MASCARENE ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND BEYOND. APART FROM THE MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR OBSERVED AT 18 UTC (AND DOUBTLESS UNTIL THE NEXT NETWORK), THE MINIMUM IS GENERALLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOIST AIR FROM A SATISFACTOY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WEAK DEEP SHEAR, VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. WE CAN THEREFORE EXPECT A STEADY INTENSIFICATION THAT WILL SEE IT REACH THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS IT TURNS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, APPROACHING THE GRANDES MASCAREIGNES (REUNION - MAURITIUS), THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, PROBABLY REACHING THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM COULD THEN STAGNATE, NOT ONLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF INTERNAL MECHANISMS, BUT ALSO OF A MORE INVASIVE SOUTH-WESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERE WIND SHEAR AS IT PASSES THE MASCAREIGNES, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY BRING DRY AIR INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE GREATER MASCARENE ISLANDS AND SHOULD NOT ONLY REACH COOLER, LESS ENERGETIC WATERS, BUT ALSO ENCOUNTER PERSISTENT DEEP WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IMPACTS EXPECTED ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: - WAVES OF AROUND 4 METERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ON SUNDAY, RISING TO 6 METERS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH TWICE THESE HEIGHTS. - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING FOR REUNION, MONDAY FOR MAURITIUS. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING. TO BE CONFIRMED AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. -HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 100MM IN 24HRS IN THE HIGHLANDS OF REUNION FROM SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 100MM IN 24HRS POSSIBLE OVER THE WHOLE COUNTRY FROM SUNDAY EVENING IN REUNION, MONDAY FOR MAURITIUS.=
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WTIO30 FMEE 130033 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/2/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/13 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 56.0 E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 35 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 45 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 0 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/13 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0 24H: 2024/01/14 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/14 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/15 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/15 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/16 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/17 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 120H: 2024/01/18 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SW: 315 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70 64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5+ SINCE 18UTC, THERE HAS BEEN A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT IN THE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM LINKED TO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE, FAVOURING A RETURN TO MORE EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, ORGANIZED IN CURVED PERIPHERAL BANDS - PROOF, IF ANY WERE NEEDED, OF A SYMMETRIZATION OF THE SYSTEM'S CIRCULATION. WHAT'S MORE, IN THE ANIMATION OF THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES, THE CENTER BECOMES HARDER TO DISCERN, AS IT IS COVERED BY CONVECTION PUFFS. THE NORTHWARD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IS ALSO LESS PRONOUNCED, AND HAS MOVED TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE. A CURVED BAND DVORAK ANALYSIS REVEALS A 0.55 WRAP ON A LOG10 SPIRAL, SUGGESTING A DT OF 2.5+, OR 35KT IN MEAN WIND. THIS SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATE IS IN LINE WITH THE ADJUSTED MET, AND CLOSE TO THE AMERICAN OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM THEREFORE REACHED THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND WAS NAMED BELAL, IN COORDINATION WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE ISLAND OF MAURITIUS. THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS STEERED BY A RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL FORCE IT TO HEAD SOUTH-WESTERLY TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES UNTIL THE END OF SATURDAY. THEREAFTER, AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES, IT WILL BE STEERED BY A HIGHER-ALTITUDE DIRECTIONAL FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE WHICH WILL FORCE IT TO TURN SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST, WHILE SLOWING IT DOWN NEAR THE NORTHWEST OF THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY OR MONDAY MORNING. THE PRESENT TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND TAKES THE METEOR AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE TO THE ISLAND OF REUNION ON MONDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK ESTIMATE IS BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE (EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN), WHICH SHIFTS THE TRACK FURTHER NORTH-WEST OF REUNION. THE DISPERSION OF THE MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE SHORT TERM, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DISTANCES OF PASSAGE AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE TO THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS. BELAL IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOIST AIR OVER THE VERTICAL SUPPORTED BY IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WEAK DEEP SHEAR (6KT FROM THE EAST), VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. WE CAN LOGICALLY EXPECT REGULAR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, APPROACHING THE GREAT MASCAREIGNES (REUNION - MAURITIUS), IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL IT REACHES THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM COULD THEN STAGNATE SOUTH OF THE 20TH PARALLEL, DUE NOT ONLY TO POSSIBLE INTERNAL MECHANISMS, BUT ALSO TO A MORE INVASIVE SOUTH-WESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERE WIND SHEAR AS IT PASSES THE MASCAREIGNES, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY BRING DRY AIR INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE GREATER MASCARENE ISLANDS, REACHING COOLER, LESS ENERGETIC WATERS AND ENCOUNTERING PERSISTENT DEEP, MODERATE TO STRONG, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IMPACTS EXPECTED ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: - WAVES OF AROUND 4 METERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ON SUNDAY, RISING TO 6 METERS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH TWICE THESE HEIGHTS. - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING FOR REUNION, BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MAURITIUS. STORM FORCE WINDS (POSSIBLY EVEN HURRICANE FORCE) LIKELY ON MONDAY. TO BE CONFIRMED AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. -HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 100MM IN 24HRS IN THE HIGHLANDS OF REUNION FROM SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 100MM IN 24HRS POSSIBLE OVER THE WHOLE COUNTRY FROM SUNDAY EVENING IN REUNION, MONDAY FOR MAURITIUS.=
最后于 2024-01-13 09:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTXS31 PGTW 130300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 55.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 55.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.2S 54.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 17.5S 54.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.6S 54.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 19.5S 54.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 21.0S 57.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 22.2S 59.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 23.2S 61.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 55.5E. 13JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130000Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z. // NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 130300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.5S 55.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 347 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AND RAPID CONSOLIDATION, WITH INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BAND WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THROUGHOUT THE LAST SIX HOURS, DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES HAVE CONTINUOUSLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS BLOW OFF EJECTS BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD, ALLOWING FOR SUPPORTIVE DUAL-CHANNEL DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SLIGHT NOTCHING OBSERVED IN THE 122206Z ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY MICROWAVE SOUNDER (ATMS) IMAGERY AND IN THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAPID AND CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING AND THE T3.0 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW. ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) OF EASTERLY SHEAR, THE AFOREMENTIONED DUAL-CHANNEL FLOW, AND WARM SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED DIRECTLY TO THE EAST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR CENTERED TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 121913Z CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 122100Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRACK SPEED IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AS THE RIDGE DRIVES THE STORM TRACK TOWARD MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION. BY TAU 24, THE OVERALL MOVEMENT BEGINS TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 36, TC 05S WILL BEGIN ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS DIRECTLY IN BETWEEN MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION NEAR THE TAU 72, AND CONTINUE INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ONGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS DESTRUCTIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW AND ALLOWS FOR INTENSITY TO INCREASE TO 60 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 105 KNOTS IS FORECAST INTO TAU 72 AS WELL WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING DIRECTLY THROUGH THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO. AN EXPECTED RAPID DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SSTS, WHILE VWS INCREASES WILL INDUCE A WEAKENING OF 05S INTO TAU 120 AS THE STORM PROGRESSES POLEWARD TOWARD COOLER WATERS. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 60 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE EXCEPT NAVGEM, WHICH IS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST, IS CONFINED TO A 70-75NM ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACKER THROUGH TAU 72 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY (RI), WITH MULTIPLE RI AIDS VERIFYING. ALL MEMBERS OF THE OF THE CONSENSUS AGREE ON A LEVELING OFF OF STORM INTENSITY AFTER TAU 60, FOLLOWED BY SLOW, BUT STEADY WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 05S MOVES INTO OPEN WATERS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACKS ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS, THEN TRACKS INTO THE CONSENSUS NEAR THE MEAN AFTER TAU 108. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-13 10:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTIO30 FMEE 130713 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/2/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/13 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 55.0 E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/13 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 0 24H: 2024/01/14 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/14 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/15 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/15 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 370 SW: 230 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/16 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/17 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 120H: 2024/01/18 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80 64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.5 BELAL CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION, WITH INTENSE CONVECTION AND A CURVED BAND STRUCTURE WRAPPING AROUND A COMPACT CENTER. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE BEGINNINGS OF A TIGHT INNER CORE. A SMOS PASS AT 0236Z MEASURED WINDS AT 43KT. THE SYSTEM PASSED TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF THE ISLAND OF TROMELIN BETWEEN 06 AND 07UTC, WHERE THE WEATHER STATION MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 995HPA, AN AVERAGE SOUTH-WESTERLY WIND OF 39KT GUSTING TO 52KT AT 07UTC. THESE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INDICATIONS LEAD TO AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 45KT. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL FORCE IT TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THIS SATURDAY. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION WILL LEAD IT TO BE STEERED BY A HIGHER-ALTITUDE STEERING FLOW, ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, FORCING IT TO TURN SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST, WHILE SLOWING DOWN CLOSE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER MASCARENE ISLANDS BY THE END OF SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS MORE SOUTHERLY THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLAND OF REUNION ON MONDAY MORNING. THE DISPERSION OF OVERALL FORECASTS REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AT THESE TIMES, LEADING TO AN UNCERTAINTY OF MORE THAN 100 KM AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO. IN THE SHORT TERM, BELAL IS BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOIST AIR, GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, LOW DEEP SHEAR, VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL AND EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THESE CONDITIONS, TOGETHER WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE, SUGGEST A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY EVENING. THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE SHOULD THUS BE REACHED BY TOMORROW SUNDAY. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM COULD THEN STAGNATE OR DIMINISH AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS, DUE TO INTERNAL MECHANISMS (POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE), POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION, BUT ALSO TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY MID-SHEAR AS IT PASSES THE MASCARENES, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY BRING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM'S WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE GREATER MASCARENE ISLANDS, AND SHOULD NOT ONLY REACH COOLER, LESS ENERGETIC WATERS, BUT ALSO ENCOUNTER PERSISTENT DEEP WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : REUNION : - PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM'S INTENSE CORE LIKELY WITHIN 100 KM OF THE ISLAND BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. - GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING 18UTC, STORM FORCE LIKELY FROM MONDAY 00UTC WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE. CLOSEST PASSAGE AROUND MONDAY MORNING. - HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 200MM IN 24HRS IN THE HIGH GROUNDS FROM SUNDAY AND OVER THE WHOLE ISLAND FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL OF AROUND 500-1000MM IN 24H OVER THE HIGH GROUNDS BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING. - WAVES OVER 4M FROM SUNDAY MORNING, RISING TO OVER 6M ON SUNDAY EVENING AND AROUND 8M ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH TWICE THESE HEIGHTS. MAURITIUS : - PROBABLY A MORE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE THAN FOR REUNION ISLAND, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT A MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE, GIVEN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY. - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY MONDAY EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE WINDS. TO BE ADJUSTED. - HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 100-200MM IN 24H ON MONDAY. - WAVES OVER 4M SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER 6M DURING ON MONDAY.=
最后于 2024-01-13 16:25:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“贝拉尔”强度快速增强
时 间：13日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“贝拉尔”，BELAL
中心位置：南纬15.7度、东经55.0度
强度等级：热带风暴
最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：991百帕
参考位置：马达加斯加安塔拉哈偏东方向约520公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贝拉尔”由6级加强到9级
预报结论：“贝拉尔”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西南方向移动，强度快速增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月13日14时15分）
