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ABIO10 PGTW 110200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/110200Z-111800ZJAN2024// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2S 78.7E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.6S 62.7E, APPROXIMATELY 583 NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH SHALLOW CUMULIFORM CLOUD LINES WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION IS EVIDENT IN RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARD MAURITIUS AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE:DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 2.B. (1) AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2) // NNNN
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WTIO30 FMEE 111347 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/2/20232024 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 2 2.A POSITION 2024/01/11 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.4 S / 60.2 E (TEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/12 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 24H: 2024/01/12 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 100 36H: 2024/01/13 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 75 48H: 2024/01/13 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75 60H: 2024/01/14 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 72H: 2024/01/14 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/15 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 120H: 2024/01/16 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: A TECHNICAL INCIDENT LED TO AN UNTIMELY INCREASE IN THE ADVISORY NUMEROTATION. RSMC LA REUNION APOLOGIZES FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE CAUSED. IN A FAVORABLE UNDULATORY CONTEXT OVER THE SOUTH-WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN BASIN (WET MJO PHASE AND CIRCULATION OF AN EQUATORIAL ROSSBY WAVE), A SOLID MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN CONSOLIDATING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW, TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. WITHIN THIS LARGE DEPRESSION ZONE, A LOW-LEVEL PRECURSOR IS CONSOLIDATING, FED MAINLY BY A DYNAMIC MONSOON FLOW ON ITS NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ON ANALYSIS, THE TRADES WINDS CONVERGENCE IS STILL HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE FEEDING THE SYSTEM WITH MOISTURE ALOFT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY WAS RELATIVELY MODEST, BUT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOWER LAYERS. IN THE ABSENCE OF DIRECT OBJECTIVE DATA (SCATTEROMETERS AND STATION DATA) ON THE DEPRESSION ZONE, THE INTENSITY OF THE VORTEX IS DEDUCED FROM THE VARIOUS MODEL ANALYSES, GIVING AN AVERAGE WIND OF AROUND 20KT. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A MERIDIAN TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EQUATOR, WHICH WILL IMPART A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, THE TRACK WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-WESTERLY TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELAGO, AS A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE CONSOLIDATES FURTHER EAST. THE METEOR SHOULD START TO TURN SOUTH-EASTERLY ON SUNDAY, DEPENDING ON THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH. ACCORDING TO THE RSMC FORECAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE OVER THE NORTHERN MASCARENE ISLANDS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS TURN AT PRESENT, AND THERE IS A WIDE DISPERSION OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST MEMBERS OVER THE MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELAGO. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE MOEDELES, WHOSE DISPERSION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT, INDUCING UNCERTAINTY ON THE FINAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY EVOLVING IN TROPICAL LATITUDES MARKED BY VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM A GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCES ON THE EQUATORIAL COAST THANKS TO A DYNAMIC MONSOON FLOW. THE TRADE WINDS FLOW, TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, IS STRUGGLING TO CONVERGE, BUT OVER THE NEXT 24/36 HOURS, WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE MASCAREIGNES RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY SYMMETRIZE. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE EXCELLENT POLAR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, REINFORCED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SOUTH-WESTERLY TROUGH BY TOMORROW. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WHICH ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAINED INTENSIFICATION, ARE SET TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND SHOULD REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE ON SATURDAY. APPROACHING THE MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELAGO (REUNION - MAURITIUS), THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: - WAVES OF THE ORDER OF 4 METERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ON SUNDAY, GROWING TO 6 METERS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN RAPIDLY SUBSIDING. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH TWICE THESE HEIGHTS. - HEAVY RAIN CONCENTRATED AROUND THE SYSTEM (COMPACT) SLIDING BETWEEN AGALEGA AND THE SOUTH OF TROMELIN, OF THE ORDER OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. - GRADUAL DETERIORATION IN WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE MASCAREIGNES, WITH VERY FRESH WINDS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BANDS OF RAIN MAY REACH THE SISTER ISLANDS OF FRIDAY, ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, CAUSING HEAVY RAIN IN THE GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW.=
最后于 2024-01-11 21:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
ABIO10 PGTW 111330 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/111330Z-111800ZJAN2024// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 62.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 59.9E APPROXIMATELY 461 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 110930Z ASMR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE VERY WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.// NNNN
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WTIO30 FMEE 111825 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/2/20232024 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 2 2.A POSITION 2024/01/11 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3 S / 60.0 E (ELEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/12 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 95 24H: 2024/01/12 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 65 36H: 2024/01/13 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75 48H: 2024/01/13 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/14 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/14 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/15 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 120H: 2024/01/16 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=NIL A TECHNICAL INCIDENT LED TO AN UNTIMELY INCREASE IN THE ADVISORY NUMEROTATION. RSMC LA REUNION APOLOGIZES FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE CAUSED. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 02 HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER, PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE CIRCULATION. THE 1706UTC ASCAT SWATH ON THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM SHOWS WINDS OF AROUND 30KT, BUT CONTAMINATED BY PRECIPITATING ACTIVITY. AN ESTIMATE OF 25KT CAN THEREFORE BE MADE FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION, IN THE ABSENCE OF A DVORAK ANALYSIS THAT IS STILL TOO EARLY, WITH THE STRUCTURE OF THIS CIRCULATION STILL FAIRLY WIDE. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE ESTIMATED MOVEMENT OF THE DISTURBED ZONE'S CENTER WILL BE FAIRLY UNCERTAIN WHILE THE VORTEX CONSOLIDATES. HOWEVER, LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR, WHICH WILL IMPART A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, A GENERALLY MERIDIAN TRACK IS EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY, THE TRACK WILL VEER FURTHER SOUTH-WEST TOWARDS THE MASCAREIGNES, AS THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE CONSOLIDATES FURTHER EAST. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER AND FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE METEOR, IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE OVER THE NORTHERN MASCAREIGNES BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS TIMETABLE WILL BE CLOSELY LINKED TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH COULD DELAY THE TURN AND SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE MODELS, WHOSE DISPERSION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AT THESE TIMES, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DISTANCES OF PASSAGE NEAR THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND LATER. WITH NO CHANGE ON SHORT TIME SCALES, THE LOW IS CURRENTLY EVOLVING IN TROPICAL LATITUDES MARKED BY VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL. THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE EQUATORIAL COAST, THANKS TO A DYNAMIC MONSOON FLOW. THE ALIZE, TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, IS STRUGGLING TO CONVERGE, BUT OVER THE NEXT 24/36 HOURS, WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE MASCAREIGNES ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH, LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE DURING THE NIGHT OF FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. AS IT APPROACHES THE MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELAGO (REUNION - MAURITIUS), THE SYSTEM IS SET TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, PROBABLY REACHING THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH PHASES OF FLUCTUATING INTENSITY. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: - WAVES OF THE ORDER OF 4 METERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ON SUNDAY, GROWING TO 6 METERS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN RAPIDLY SUBSIDING. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH TWICE THESE HEIGHTS. - HEAVY RAIN CONCENTRATED AROUND THE SYSTEM (COMPACT) SLIDING BETWEEN AGALEGA AND THE SOUTH OF TROMELIN, OF THE ORDER OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. - GRADUAL DETERIORATION IN WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE MASCAREIGNES, WITH GALE WINDS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT MAURITIUS AND REUNION BY LATE SATURDAY.=
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WTIO30 FMEE 120032 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/2/20232024 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 2 2.A POSITION 2024/01/12 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 58.4 E (TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/0 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/12 12 UTC: 13.6 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0 24H: 2024/01/13 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0 36H: 2024/01/13 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 0 48H: 2024/01/14 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30 60H: 2024/01/14 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/15 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SW: 230 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/16 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 260 SW: 305 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 120H: 2024/01/17 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 510 SW: 360 NW: 260 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 70 64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=1.5+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBED ZONE 02 HAS SPREAD OUT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION, IN CONJUNCTION WITH GOOD SUPPLY IN THE EQUATORIAL PART. THE LAST ASCAT SWATH AT 18UTC ENABLED US TO GAIN A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE CIRUCULATION CLOSE TO THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE CIRCULATION THEREFORE REMAINS RATHER ELONGATED, AND THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA FROM 2200UTC AT THE EDGE OF THE SWATH DO NOT VALIDATE A ROBUST CIRCULATION. A DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 1.5+ CAN HOWEVER BE GIVEN TO THE DISTURBED ZONE, VALIDATING THE 25KT VALUES FROM THE ASCAT SWATH, 6 HOURS EARLIER. AS EXPECTED, IN THE SHORT TERM, THE ESTIMATED MOVEMENT OF THE DISTURBED ZONE'S CENTER WILL BE FAIRLY UNCERTAIN WHILE THE VORTEX CONSOLIDATES. HOWEVER, LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR, WHICH WILL IMPART A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW, A GENERALLY MERIDIAN TRACK IS EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY, THE TRACK WILL VEER FURTHER SOUTH-WEST TOWARDS THE MASCAREIGNES, AS THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE CONSOLIDATES FURTHER EAST. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER AND FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE METEOR, IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE EVOLVE OVER THE NORTHERN MASCAREIGNES BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING, CONTINUING TO CLOSE IN AND DIRECTLY AFFECT THE ISLANDS OF REUNION AND MAURITIUS BY MID-DAY ON MONDAY. THIS TIMING WILL DEPEND CLOSELY ON THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH COULD DELAY THE TURN AND SLOW THE MOVEMENT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE MODELS, WHOSE DISPERSION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AT THESE TIMES, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DISTANCES OVER THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND LATER. WITH NO CHANGE ON SHORT TIME SCALES, THE LOW IS CURRENTLY EVOLVING IN TROPICAL LATITUDES MARKED BY VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL. THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE EQUATORIAL COAST, THANKS TO A DYNAMIC MONSOON FLOW. THE ALIZE, TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, IS STRUGGLING TO CONVERGE, BUT OVER THE NEXT 12/18 HOURS, WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE MASCAREIGNES ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH, LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND EVEN A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE WITHIN 36/48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE DURING THE NIGHT OF FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. AS IT APPROACHES THE GRANDES MASCAREIGNES (REUNION - MAURITIUS), THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, PROBABLY REACHING THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH PHASES OF FLUCTUATING INTENSITY. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: - WAVES OF THE ORDER OF 4 METERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ON SUNDAY, GROWING TO 6 METERS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN RAPIDLY SUBSIDING. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH TWICE THESE HEIGHTS. - HEAVY RAIN CONCENTRATED AROUND THE SYSTEM (COMPACT) SLIDING BETWEEN AGALEGA AND THE SOUTH OF TROMELIN, OF THE ORDER OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. - GRADUAL DETERIORATION IN WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE MASCAREIGNES, WITH GALE WINDS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT MAURITIUS AND REUNION BY LATE SATURDAY.=
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WTIO30 FMEE 120647 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/2/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2024/01/12 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 57.6 E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/12 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0 24H: 2024/01/13 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 75 36H: 2024/01/13 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/14 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30 60H: 2024/01/14 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/15 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/16 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 120H: 2024/01/17 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 335 SE: 500 SW: 390 NW: 260 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 80 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.0+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02 HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED, IN CONJUNCTION WITH GOOD SUPPLY IN THE EQUATORIAL PART. CONVECTION IS MAINLY ORGANIZED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EASTERLY SHEAR STRESS. A DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 2.0+ CAN BE GIVEN IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 25KT VALUES OF THE LAST ASCAT PASS OF 05H53 UTC. THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF LOW LEVEL LAYERS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL IMPOSE A SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE MASCAREIGNES DURING THE FIRST STAGES UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER, AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, IT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGH-ALTITUDE STEERING FLOW, ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH WILL IMPOSE A SOUTH-EASTERLY TRACK ON IT. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING, CONTINUING TO MOVE CLOSER TOGETHER. THIS TIMING WILL DEPEND CLOSELY ON THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH COULD DELAY THE TURN AND SLOW THE MOVEMENT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE MODELS, WHOSE DISPERSION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AT THESE TIMES, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DISTANCES OVER THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND BEYOND. THE MINIMUM WILL BENEFIT FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOIST AIR, LOW VERTICAL SHEAR, VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL AND GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM ALSO BENEFITS FROM GOOD EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, THANKS TO A DYNAMIC MONSOON FLOW. WE CAN THEREFORE EXPECT A SUSTAINED TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT WILL ENABLE IT TO REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE IN THE EVENING. APPROACHING THE GREAT MASCAREIGNES (REUNION - MAURITIUS), THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, PROBABLY REACHING THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS (UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING): - WAVES OF AROUND 4 METERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ON SUNDAY, RISING TO 6 METERS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH TWICE THESE HEIGHTS. - HEAVY RAINS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE SYSTEM. AGALEGA WILL LEAVE THE ZONE OF INFLUENCE BY THIS EVENING. - GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND GALE-FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY EVENING. THE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT MAURITIUS AND REUNION BY LATE SATURDAY.=
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WTXS21 PGTW 120800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8S 57.8E TO 16.6S 54.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 120600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 57.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 60.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM NORTH OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. A 120159Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 120554Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH PREDOMINANTLY 25-30 KNOT WINDS AROUND MOST OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN SIDE UNDER THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION GIVEN THE VERY WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 130800Z. // NNNN
ABIO10 PGTW 120830 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/120830Z-121800ZJAN2024// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751ZJAN2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 60.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM NORTH OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. A 120159Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 120554Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH PREDOMINANTLY 25-30 KNOT WINDS AROUND MOST OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN SIDE UNDER THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION GIVEN THE VERY WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 120800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.6S 92.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 92.5E, APPROXIMATELY 303 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. A 111204Z SSMIS COLOR37 NEAREST IMAGE LENDS A CONFIDENT LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE CIRCULATION EXISTS IN A DEVELOPING SEASONAL MONSOON TROF UNDER AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AND IS BEING PROVIDED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY BY A STREAM OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES FLOWING OUT OF THE MIGRATORY ANTICYCLONES ALONG THE 30TH LATITUDE. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS REVEALS CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING PROBABLILITY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE MEDIUM RANGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.// NNNN
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WTIO30 FMEE 121300 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/2/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2024/01/12 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3 S / 56.5 E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/13 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 65 24H: 2024/01/13 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/14 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/14 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/15 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/15 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/16 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 120H: 2024/01/17 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 435 SW: 350 NW: 250 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 70 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5+ OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02 HAS INTENSIFIED, WITH GOOD EQUATORIAL FEEDING AND REDUCED VERTICAL SHEAR. THE LATEST AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1013Z SHOWS AN EYE IN THE LOWER LAYERS (37GHZ), CONFIRMING THE INTENSIFICATION. THE NAMING STAGE IS IMMINENT. THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF LOW LEVEL LAYERS TO THE SOUTH-EAST. THIS WILL IMPOSE A SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE MASCAREIGNES DURING THE FIRST HOURS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER, AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, IT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGH-ALTITUDE STEERING FLOW, ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH LEVEL THAT WOULD IMPOSE A SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK ON IT. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING, CONTINUING TO MOVE CLOSER TOGETHER. THIS TIMING WILL DEPEND CLOSELY ON THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH COULD DELAY THE TURN AND SLOW THE MOVEMENT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE MODELS, WHOSE DISPERSION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AT THESE TIMES, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DISTANCES OVER THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND BEYOND. THE MINIMUM WILL BENEFIT FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOIST AIR, LOW VERTICAL SHEAR, VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL AND GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM ALSO BENEFITS FROM GOOD EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, THANKS TO A DYNAMIC MONSOON FLOW. WE CAN THEREFORE EXPECT A SUSTAINED TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT WILL ENABLE IT TO REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE IN THE COMING HOURS. APPROACHING THE GREAT MASCAREIGNES (REUNION - MAURITIUS), THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, PROBABLY REACHING THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. EXPECTED IMPACTS IN LA REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : - WAVES OF AROUND 4 METERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ON SUNDAY, RISING TO 6 METERS BY MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH TWICE THESE HEIGHTS. - GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING IN LA REUNION, AND FROM MONDAY IN MAURITIUS. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. - HEAVY RAINS EXCEEDING 100M IN 24H IN REUNION HIGH GROUNDS FROM SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAINS SUPERIEURES A 100MM EN 24H GENERALIZED POSSIBLY FROM SUNDAY EVENING IN LA REUNION AND FROM MONDAY IN MAURITIUS.=
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