最新回复 (66)
-
WTIO30 FMEE 131240 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/2/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/13 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 54.0 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 13 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/14 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 30 24H: 2024/01/14 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/15 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/15 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/16 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/16 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/17 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55 120H: 2024/01/18 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 270 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70 64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: FT=CI=4.0 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BELAL'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CLEARLY KEPT IMPROVING, TRANSITIONING FROM A STRONGLY-WRAPPED CURVED BAND TO A CDO CONFIGURATION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS (-90C). STRONG LIGHTINING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DETECTED NEAR THE CENTER, WHICH IS A LIKELY SIGN OF UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREADING TO THE NORTH-WEST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CONFIRM CURRENT EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE CONDITIONS. INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55KT, MAINLY BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 4.0. BELAL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS BY A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM SUNDAY, AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, BELAL SHOULD TURN SOUTHEAST, APPROACHING THE MASCARENE ISLANDS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO EXPECT BELAL TO TRACK IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF REUNION ISLAND ON MONDAY MORNING. AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS, THE UNCERTAINTY OVER ITS TRACK WHILE IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE MASCARENE ISLANDS IS OF ABOUT 100 TO 150 KM. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, BELAL'S MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND UNCERTAINTY OVER ITS TRACK INCREASES DUE TO MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS (COMPETITION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST). IN THE SHORT TERM, BELAL IS BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED AND CONVERGENCE, VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY CONTENT, LOW WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THESE CONDITIONS, TOGETHER WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE, SUGGEST A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY EVENING. INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE SHOULD THUS BE REACHED BY TOMORROW SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY COULD THEN STAGNATE OR DIMINISH AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS, DUE TO INTERNAL MECHANISMS (POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE), POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION, BUT ALSO DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY MID-SHEAR AS IT PASSES THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY BRING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM'S WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, DESPITE A SLIGHT DROP IN OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE WIND SHEAR, MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT BELAL COULD REMAIN AT A QUITE MATURE STAGE. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : REUNION : - PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM'S INTENSE CORE LIKELY WITHIN 100 KM OF THE ISLAND BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF A DIRECT MAJOR IMPACT EXCEEDS 60%. - GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING 18UTC, STORM FORCE LIKELY FROM MONDAY 00UTC WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE. CLOSEST PASSAGE AROUND MONDAY MORNING. - HEAVY RAINFALL OF 200-400MM IN 24HRS OVER THE LOWER PARTS OF THE ISLAND AND 1000-1500MM IN 24HRS OVER HIGH GROUNDS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. - WAVES OVER 4M FROM SUNDAY MORNING, RISING TO OVER 6M ON SUNDAY EVENING AND AROUND 8M ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH TWICE THESE HEIGHTS. MAURITIUS : - PROBABLY A MORE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE THAN FOR REUNION ISLAND, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT A MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE, GIVEN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY. - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY MONDAY EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE WINDS. FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. - HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 100-200MM IN 24H FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING. - WAVES OVER 4M SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER 6M DURING ON MONDAY.=
最后于 2024-01-13 21:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 54.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 54.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 18.2S 53.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 19.3S 53.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 20.1S 54.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 20.8S 55.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 21.9S 58.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 22.4S 60.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 22.7S 62.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 54.1E. 13JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131200Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.6S 54.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 241 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING AND A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGH RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS BEEN SPARSE BUT A 130953Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A DEVELOPING INNER CORE AND POSSIBLE EYEWALL OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW, KNES SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE GENERALLY LOWER AND RANGE FROM 46-51 KNOTS. A SENTINEL-1A SAR PASS IS SCHEDULED AT 131500Z BUT IS EXPECTED TO MISS THE CENTER. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 130900Z CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 131200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES SHIFT OVER MADAGASCAR AND WEAKEN THE STR. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 36. STEADY WEAKENING WILL COMMENCE AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO INCREASING (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. TC 05S WILL TRACK GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE REORIENTED STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 96, THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW FOR SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION AS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATE EASTWARD, WITH DECREASING VWS AND IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 70 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SLOW DOWN IN THE LATER TAUS AS THE STR BUILDS BACK IN AND A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS. THE 130600Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE (GFS VERSION) CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) PHASE WITH PEAK 90 TO 95 PERCENT RI PROBABILITIES THROUGH TAU 30. ADDITIONALLY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE HAS TRIGGERED WITH RIPA SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-14 04:45:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 131905 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/2/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/13 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 53.8 E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/14 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/14 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/15 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/15 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/16 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 72H: 2024/01/16 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SW: 305 NW: 250 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/17 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SW: 305 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55 120H: 2024/01/18 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60 64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: FT=CI=4.0+ OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BELAL'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, WITH CURVED BANDS (VERY COLD CLOUD TOP) WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES ( 1418Z AND 1458Z SSMIS AND 1806Z AMSU) SHOW THE PROGRESSIVE BUILDING OF A WELL DEFINED EYE IN 89GHZ. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE EYEWALL, PROBABLY RELATED TO THE WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR STILL PRESENT. THE 1433Z SMAP PASS INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS CLOSE TO 50KT, PERHAPS PARTLY OFFSET BY THE SMALL SIZE OF BELAL'S CORE. IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES, AND IN VIEW OF THE TREND, THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60KT. BELAL'S TRAJECTORY IS BEING DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO ITS EAST AND SOUTHEAST, FORCING IT TO HEAD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS SATURDAY EVENING. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, BELAL SHOULD TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST, APPROACHING THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO SEE THE METEOR EVOLVE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND OF REUNION ON MONDAY. AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE SISTER ISLANDS, THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE ORDER OF 100 TO 150 KM, MAKING IT UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHEN IT WILL PASS THE CLOSEST. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN EVEN LATER SCENARIO. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, BELAL'S MOVEMENT IS SET TO SLOW DOWN AND UNCERTAINTY ON ITS TRAJECTORY WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS (COMPETITION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST). BELAL IS BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD SHORT-TERM ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY CONTENT, WEAKENING SHEAR AND EXCELLENT HIGH-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THESE CONDITIONS, COUPLED WITH THE SYSTEM'S SMALL CORE SIZE, ARGUE IN FAVOR OF A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN NOW AND TOMORROW, SUNDAY. THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD THEREFORE BE REACHED BY TOMORROW. A POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD LIMIT THE PEAK INTENSITY. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE GRADUAL INCREASE OF THE WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AS WELL AS THE EVOLUTION CLOSE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY OF REUNION AND MAURITIUS COULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. FURTHER OUT, THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN TO SOME EXTENT. ON STILL-WARM WATERS, BELAL COULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AT SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : REUNION : - PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM'S INTENSE CORE LIKELY WITHIN 100 KM OF THE ISLAND BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF A DIRECT EXCEEDS 60%. - GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING 18UTC, STORM FORCE LIKELY FROM MONDAY 00UTC WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE. CLOSEST PASSAGE AROUND MONDAY MORNING. - HEAVY RAINFALL OF 200-400MM IN 24HRS OVER THE LOWER PARTS OF THE ISLAND AND 1000-1500MM IN 24HRS OVER HIGH GROUNDS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. - WAVES OVER 4M FROM SUNDAY MORNING, RISING TO OVER 6M ON SUNDAY EVENING AND AROUND 8M ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH TWICE THESE HEIGHTS. MAURITIUS : - PROBABLY A MORE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE THAN FOR REUNION ISLAND, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT A MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE, GIVEN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY. - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY MONDAY EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE WINDS. - HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 100-200MM IN 24H FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING. - WAVES OVER 4M SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER 6M DURING ON MONDAY.=
-
WTIO30 FMEE 140054 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/2/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/14 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 53.5 E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/14 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/15 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55 36H: 2024/01/15 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/16 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/16 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 360 SW: 315 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 72H: 2024/01/17 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/18 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55 120H: 2024/01/19 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: FT=CI=4.5- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BELAL'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, WITH THE CENTER INCREASINGLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY COLD CDO. AMSR2 MICROWAVE DATA, AND ESPECIALLY RADAR IMAGES FROM COLORADO, SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-DEFINED EYE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. IN THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGES, A HOT SPOT HAS APPEARED. CONSEQUENTLY, AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES, BELAL IS CONSIDERED TO HAVE REACHED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. FURTHERMORE, IN VIEW OF THE MICROWAVE DATA, IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT A EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BELAL'S TRAJECTORY IS BEING DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO ITS EAST AND SOUTHEAST, FORCING IT TO HEAD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. TODAY, AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, BELAL SHOULD TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST, APPROACHING THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO SEE THE METEOR EVOLVE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND OF REUNION ON MONDAY. AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE SISTER ISLANDS, THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE ORDER OF 100 TO 150 KM, MAKING IT UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHEN IT WILL PASS THE CLOSEST. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN EVEN LATER SCENARIO. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, BELAL'S MOVEMENT IS SET TO SLOW DOWN AND UNCERTAINTY ON ITS TRAJECTORY WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS (COMPETITION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST). BELAL IS BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD SHORT-TERM ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY CONTENT, WEAKENING SHEAR AND EXCELLENT HIGH-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THESE CONDITIONS ARGUE IN FAVOR OF A POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL TONIGHT. THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD THEREFORE BE REACHED TODAY. A POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD HOWEVER LIMIT THE PEAK INTENSITY. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE GRADUAL INCREASE OF THE WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AS WELL AS THE EVOLUTION CLOSE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY OF REUNION AND MAURITIUS COULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. FURTHER OUT, THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN TO SOME EXTENT. ON STILL-WARM WATERS, BELAL COULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AT SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : REUNION : - PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM'S INTENSE CORE LIKELY WITHIN 100 KM OF THE ISLAND BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF A DIRECT HIT EXCEEDS 60%. - GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING 18UTC, STORM FORCE LIKELY BY THE END OF THE NIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE DURING THE DAY. - HEAVY RAINFALL OF 200-400MM IN 24HRS OVER THE LOWER PARTS OF THE ISLAND AND 1000-1500MM IN 24HRS OVER HIGH GROUNDS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. - WAVES OVER 4M FROM SUNDAY MORNING, RISING TO OVER 6M ON SUNDAY EVENING AND AROUND 8M ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH TWICE THESE HEIGHTS. MAURITIUS : - PROBABLY A MORE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE THAN FOR REUNION ISLAND, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT A MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE, GIVEN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY. - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY MONDAY EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE WINDS. - HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 100-200MM IN 24H FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING. - WAVES OVER 4M SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER 6M DURING ON MONDAY.=
最后于 2024-01-14 09:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 53.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 53.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 19.3S 53.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 20.1S 54.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 20.8S 55.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 21.4S 56.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 22.2S 59.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 22.6S 61.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 22.8S 63.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 53.5E. 14JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176 NM NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140000Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z. // NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.1S 53.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 176 NM NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE AS CONTINUOUS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES ENCIRCLE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING AND AN OBSERVABLE AND COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) OBSCURING THE RECENTLY FORMED EYE. A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 132338Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND VALIDATES THE FORMATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, PRIMARILY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW, FMEE, AND DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN THROUGH THE LAST SIX HOURS, AND RANGE FROM 61-77 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS FIMP: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 64 KTS AT 131859Z CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 132100Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BELAL) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12 AS IT CRESTS THE STR AXIS. AFTERWARD, TC BELAL WILL SHARPLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE STR WEAKENS AND THE WESTERLIES SHIFT OVER MADAGASCAR. TC BELAL IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AT THIS TIME, AND WILL CONTINUE UNDER VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL TAU 36. SLIGHT WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AT TAU 48 DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUB TROPICAL WESTERLIES AND INCREASED DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TC BELAL WILL TRACK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH REINTENSIFICATION IS NOT FORECASTED AT THIS TIME, AN INCREASE IN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WILL SLOW DISSIPATION OF TC BELAL TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A 65 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC AND CONSENSUS FORECAST TRACKS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVEMENT SPEED NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS INCREASE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-14 11:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“贝拉尔”向南偏西方向移动
时 间：14日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“贝拉尔”，BELAL
中心位置：南纬18.4度、东经53.5度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：12级（33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）
中心气压：975百帕
参考位置：马达加斯加安塔拉哈东南方向约520公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贝拉尔”由8级加强到12级
预报结论：“贝拉尔”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度快速增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月14日08时15分）
-
WTIO30 FMEE 140655 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/2/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/14 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 53.5 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/14 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/15 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 36H: 2024/01/15 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 48H: 2024/01/16 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 60H: 2024/01/16 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 280 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 72H: 2024/01/17 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/18 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SW: 305 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65 120H: 2024/01/19 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 325 SE: 405 SW: 315 NW: 250 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 100 NW: 80 64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: FT=CI=4.5- OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE BELAL BAND CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE, DESPITE A SHORT PASSAGE THROUGH THE BAND'S EYE. CLOUD TOPS REMAIN VERY COLD AND CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER WITH PERIPHERAL BANDS IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. THIS CONFIGURATION IS ALSO CLEARLY VISIBLE ON THE RADAR IMAGE, WITH A SHARPER EYE BEGINNING TO REFORM. THE 0515Z ASCAT PASS, AS WELL AS SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES, CONFIRM MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 65KT. BELAL IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BELAL'S TRACK IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS FORCING IT TO HEAD SOUTH THIS MORNING. DURING THE DAY, AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY REFOCUSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, BELAL SHOULD MAKE A SOUTHEASTERLY TURN, APPROACHING THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO SEE THE METEOR EVOLVE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND OF REUNION ON MONDAY. AT THE TIME OF PASSAGE CLOSE TO THE SISTER ISLANDS, THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK IS OF THE ORDER OF 80 KM, MAKING THE EXACT MOMENT OF CLOSEST PASSAGE UNCERTAIN. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST LATER SCENARIOS. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, BELAL'S MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND UNCERTAINTY OVER ITS TRACK INCREASE DUE TO MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS (COMPETITION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST). BELAL IS BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY CONTENT, WEAKENING SHEAR AND EXCELLENT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. THESE CONDITIONS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION BY TONIGHT. THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD THEREFORE BE REACHED TODAY. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTH-WEST SHEAR AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE RELIEF OF REUNION AND MAURITIUS COULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN TO SOME EXTENT. OVER STILL-WARM WATERS, BELAL COULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AT A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY WITHOUT EVOKING IT INTO THE EXTRA-TROPICAL DOMAIN. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : REUNION: - THE INTENSE CORE OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PASS WITHIN 100 KM OF THE ISLAND BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DAY. PROBABILITY OF DIRECT IMPACT EXCEEDS 60%. - GALE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING, STORM-FORCE LIKELY LATE IN THE NIGHT, WITH HURRICANE-FORCE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. - HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 200-400MM IN 24HRS OVER LOW-LYING AREAS AND AROUND 1000-1500MM IN 24HRS OVER HIGHER-LYING AREAS BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING. - WAVES OF OVER 4M FROM SUNDAY, RISING TO OVER 6M ON SUNDAY EVENING AND AROUND 8M ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES COULD REACH 2 TIMES THESE HEIGHTS. - A SURGE OF AROUND 50CM IS EXPECTED. IT COULD BE HIGHER IN THE EVENT OF A DIRECT IMPACT. MAURITIUS: - INFLUENCE PROBABLY MORE PERIPHERAL THAN IN REUNION. THIS MORNING, MAURITIUS EMERGED FROM THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK, REMOVING THE SCENARIO OF A POSSIBLE DIRECT IMPACT. - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON MONDAY EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE WINDS. - HEAVY RAINFALL OF AROUND 100-200MM IN 24HRS BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. - WAVES IN EXCESS OF 4M FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY, AND IN EXCESS OF 6M DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.=
最后于 2024-01-14 15:25:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“贝拉尔”向偏南方向移动
时 间：14日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“贝拉尔”，BELAL
中心位置：南纬19.0度、东经53.5度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：12级（33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）
中心气压：975百帕
参考位置：马达加斯加塔马塔夫东偏南方向约445公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贝拉尔”由9级加强到12级
预报结论：“贝拉尔”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月14日14时00分）
-
WTIO30 FMEE 141243 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/2/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/14 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 53.6 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 250 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 205 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/15 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 24H: 2024/01/15 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/16 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/16 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/17 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/17 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/18 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 120H: 2024/01/19 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50 64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: FT=CI=4.5- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY, BUT TWO PERIPHERAL BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE 1001Z GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE, CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, AS WELL AS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERAL BAND. IN LINE WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES, THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH AVERAGE WINDS OF 65KT. BELAL'S TRACK IS DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS FORCED IT TO HEAD SOUTH TODAY. THEN, AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY REFOCUSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, BELAL IS SET TO TURN SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE PRESENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO SEE THE METEOR EVOLVE WITH A DIRECT IMPACT ON REUNION IN THE NEXT 24 H, RULING OUT A DIRECT IMPACT ON MAURITIUS. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, BELAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARDS. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE STEERING FLOWS ARE MORE CONTRASTED, IMPLYING A STRONG DIVERGENCE OF TRACKS BETWEEN MODELS. RSMC'S TRACK IS A COMBIT BETWEEN DIFFERENT GUIDELINES. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE IN THE TROPICAL DOMAIN. BELAL IS BENEFITING FROM VERY GOOD SHORT-TERM ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY CONTENT, WEAKENING SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.THESE CONDITIONS POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT. THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD BE REACHED JUST OUTSIDE REUNION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTH-WEST SHEAR AND EVOLUTION NEAR REUNION'S RELIEF COULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE LONGER TERM, SOME OF THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN. ON STILL-WARM WATERS, BELAL COULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AT SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : REUNION: - GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY EVENING, STORM FORCE LIKELY LATE IN THE NIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE ON MONDAY. - HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 200-400MM IN 24HRS OVER LOW-LYING AREAS AND AROUND 1000-1500MM IN 24HRS OVER HIGHER-LYING AREAS BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING. - WAVES OF OVER 4M FROM SUNDAY, RISING TO OVER 6M ON SUNDAY EVENING AND AROUND 8M ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES COULD REACH 2 TIMES THESE HEIGHTS. - A SURGE OF AROUND 50CM IS EXPECTED. MAURITIUS : - THE ISLAND OF MAURITIUS IS NO LONGER IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK, REMOVING THE SCENARIO OF A POSSIBLE DIRECT IMPACT. - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY MONDAY EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE WINDS. - HEAVY RAINFALL OF AROUND 100-200MM IN 24HRS BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. - WAVES IN EXCESS OF 4M FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY, AND IN EXCESS OF 6M DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.=
最后于 2024-01-14 21:25:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 141500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 19.8S 53.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 53.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 20.7S 54.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 21.4S 55.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 22.0S 56.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 22.6S 58.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 22.7S 61.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 22.5S 62.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 21.9S 62.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 53.5E. 14JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141200Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 141500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.8S 53.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 120 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: DESPITE INCREASING PRESSURE FROM SUBTROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE DUE IN LARGE PART TO STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT CORE WITH A FORMATIVE EYE. A 140957Z AMSR2 37 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A SMALL CORE SURROUNDING A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS AS WELL AS A 140957Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE, WHICH INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS OF 85 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS FIMP: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 141200Z CIMSS AIDT: 71 KTS AT 141230Z CIMSS DPRINT: 83 KTS AT 141300Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE STR WEAKENS AND REORIENTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 12 UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEFORE DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, STEADY WEAKENING TO 70 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AFTER TAU 72, TC 05S WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST AND EAST, EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AS TC 05S SLOWS AND TURNS NORTHEASTWARD, VWS SHOULD DECREASE WITH RE-MOISTENING OF THE CORE ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT RE- INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 35 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48 DIVERGING TO 110 NM AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION WITH HAFS-A SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 97 KNOTS AT TAU 12. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH INCREASING SPREAD AFTER TAU 72. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-15 04:40:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：