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WTIO30 FMEE 141845 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/2/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/14 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 53.8 E (TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 969 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110 64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/15 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55 24H: 2024/01/15 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/16 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/16 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/17 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 55 72H: 2024/01/17 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/18 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 120H: 2024/01/19 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50 64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: FT=CI=4.5+ OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED AROUND THE CENTER AND THE EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY, GIVING A 3H-AVERAGED DT OF 4.5+, RISING TO 5.0 ON THE LATEST IMAGES AROUND 18UTC. SEVERAL OBJECTIVE DATA, INCLUDING A SAR PASS AT 0155Z THIS SUNDAY MORNING, INDICATE THAT THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATED SINCE 06UTC. RADIAL VELOCITY DATA FROM THE REUNION'S COLORADO RADAR SHOW WINDS CLOSE TO 85 TO 90KT BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000M ABOVE SEA LEVEL IN THE EYEWALL, WHICH FITS AN ESTIMATED 75KT AT THE SURFACE. THESE RADAR VELOCITIES AS WELL AS THE 1742Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRM A TREND TOWARDS INTENSIFICATION. AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND IS APPROACHING REUNION AROUND 19UTC, PROBABLY MARKING THE ONSET OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE ISLAND. AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, BELAL HAS MADE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TURN THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, IN CONNECTION WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A DIRECT IMPACT ON REUNION REMAINS HIGHLY LIKELY FROM MONDAY MORNING. FROM TUESDAY, BELAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARDS. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS LEAD TO A A CLEAR SLOWDOWN, WITH HIGHLY DIVERGING TRACK SCENARIOS AMONG VARIOUS MODELS: THE SYSTEM COULD ALMOST STALL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY MOVE BACK WESTWARDS, WHILE REMAINING IN THE TROPICS. BELAL IS STILL BENEFITING FROM QUITE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM. DESPITE A SLIGHTLY INCREASING WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR, THE SYSTEM'S SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION MEANS THAT IT IS NOT OVERLY AFFECTED, AND MAY THEREFORE INTENSIFY UNTIL IT PASSES CLOSE TO REUNION AT A STAGE CLOSE TO THAT OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHEAR AS WELL AS THE EVOLUTION CLOSE TO REUNION'S HIGH GROUND COULD LEAD TO A RELATIVE WEAKENING. IN THE LONGER TERM, SHEAR COULD WEAKEN A BIT. ON STILL-WARM WATERS, BELAL COULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AT SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : REUNION: - ONSET OF GALE FORCE WINDS SUNDAY EVENING, STORM FORCE LATER IN THE NIGHT, WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY. END OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY NIGHT. - HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 200-400MM IN 24HRS OVER LOW-LYING AREAS AND AROUND 1000-1500MM IN 24HRS OVER HIGHER-LYING AREAS BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING. - WAVES OVER 6M ON SUNDAY EVENING AND AROUND 8M ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES COULD REACH TWICE THESE HEIGHTS. - A STORM SURGE NEAR 50CM IS EXPECTED. MAURITIUS : - THE ISLAND OF MAURITIUS IS NO LONGER IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK, REMOVING THE SCENARIO OF A POSSIBLE DIRECT IMPACT. - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY MONDAY EVENING. VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE WINDS. - HEAVY RAINFALL OF AROUND 100MM IN 24HRS BETWEEN MONDAY AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. - WAVES IN EXCESS OF 4M FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AND IN EXCESS OF 6M DURING MONDAY.=
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WTIO30 FMEE 150034 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/2/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/15 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 54.3 E (TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 966 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/15 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/16 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/16 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/17 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/17 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 72H: 2024/01/18 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/19 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 120H: 2024/01/20 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: FT=CI=5.0- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION INITIALLY INTENSIFIED UNTIL 22UTC, THEN THE CLOUD PATTERN BEGAN DETERIORATING JUST BEFORE 00UTC. THE CYCLONE'S STRUCTURE BECAME MORE ASYMMETRICAL, PROBABLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY VERY MARKED IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE BUT WEAKER ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE. RADIAL VELOCITY DATA FROM THE COLORADO RADAR SHOW WINDS CLOSE TO 90-95KT AT 2000M ABOVE SEA LEVEL IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL, SUGGESTING WINDS CLOSE TO 80KT AT THE SURFACE. ON THE OTHER HAND, WINDS ARE TENDING TO WEAKEN ON THE NORTH SIDE. BELAL CONTINUES ON AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LANDFALL ON REUNION ISLAND THIS MONDAY SHORTLY AFTER 06UTC. THIS MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY, AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A NEW RIDGE SWELLING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWER MOTION : A QUASI-STATIONNARY PHASE OR EVEN A SLIGHT WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED, WHILE REMAINING IN THE TROPICS. THE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL ON REUNION: IT IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO BE AT INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THIS WIND SHEAR AS WELL AS LAND INTERACTION WITH REUNION'S HIGH GROUNDS SHOULD LEAD TO RELATIVE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BY MONDAY EVENING. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN. OVER STILL-WARM WATERS, BELAL COULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AT SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. HOWEVER, ITS QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK COULD REDUCE ITS OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND WEAKEN IT SOMEWHAT. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : REUNION: - ONGOING GALE FORCE WINDS, ONSET OF STORM FORCE EARLY THIS MONDAY MORNING, WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY. END OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY NIGHT. - HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 200-400MM IN 24HRS OVER LOW-LYING AREAS AND AROUND 1000-1500MM IN 24HRS OVER HIGH GROUNDS BY MONDAY EVENING. - WAVES AROUND 8M ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES COULD REACH TWICE THESE HEIGHTS. - A STORM SURGE NEAR 50CM IS EXPECTED. MAURITIUS : - THE ISLAND OF MAURITIUS IS NO LONGER IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK, REMOVING THE SCENARIO OF A POSSIBLE DIRECT IMPACT. - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY MONDAY EVENING. - HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 100MM IN 24HRS BETWEEN MONDAY AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. - WAVES IN EXCESS OF 6M THIS MONDAY.=
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WTXS31 PGTW 150300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 20.5S 54.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 54.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 21.3S 55.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 21.9S 57.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 22.4S 59.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 22.6S 60.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 22.5S 63.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 21.8S 63.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 21.4S 63.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 54.8E. 15JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM WEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150000Z IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z. // NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 150300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.5S 54.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 45 NM WEST OF ST DENIS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLIGHT INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE WESTERLIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, WRAPPING A SMALL INJECTION OF DRY AIR AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, MAINTAINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY WITH NO OBSERVABLE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE INCREASED INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERLIES AND MID-LATITUDE TROF AS 05S HAS MADE ITS SOUTHEASTERLY TURN TOWARD LA REUNION, UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BEEN LIMITED TO AN EASTWARD COMPONENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED PINHOLE EYE BY THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AROUND THE MAXIMUM TURNING. BELOW THE CONTINUING AND OBSCURING CYCLONICALLY WRAPPED UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES, A PARTIAL 142328Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A LOW-LEVEL AND DEFINED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED IN HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING CYCLONE INDICATED ON THE 141837Z ASCAT IMAGERY, A PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED PINHOLE EYE ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED 142328Z MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS, AS WELL AS AN OBSERVED SLIGHT DECREASE IN WRAPPED CONVECTIVE FEATURES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 142100Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LA REUNION AND FORECAST TO TURN GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL CONTINUE TO STRONGLY INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORM UNTIL TAU 96. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO UNDERGO WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 24, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 90 KTS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BY TAU 36, DRY AIR WILL SLOWLY WRAP CYCLONICALLY AROUND TC 05S FROM THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, A SLOW AND STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AFTER TAU 72, TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH THE WELL-ESTABLISHED STR TO THE WEST AND EAST. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A 45 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD. FOLLOWING TAU 48, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD DIVERGES MODERATELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY OF UP TO 100 NM AS COMPETING STEERING FLOWS ENHANCE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 72, DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH UNCERTAINTY IN AN ACCURATE CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAINTAINS CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AS WELL, WITH A SUSTAINED INTENSITY OF 85-90 KTS THROUGH TAU 24, AND STEADILY DECREASING AS TC 05S TRACKS GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“贝拉尔”向东南方向移动
时 间：15日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“贝拉尔”，BELAL
中心位置：南纬20.3度、东经54.3度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：14级（42米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：966百帕
参考位置：法属留尼旺西偏北方向约145公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贝拉尔”由12级加强到14级
预报结论：“贝拉尔”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向东南方向移动，强度变化不大。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月15日08时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 150644 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/2/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/15 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 55.4 E (TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/15 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/16 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/16 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/17 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 60H: 2024/01/17 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 72H: 2024/01/18 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/19 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 65 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 120H: 2024/01/20 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: PT=CI=5.0 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY VERY MARKED IN THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE, AS WELL AS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A DVORAK ANALYSIS IN CDO WITH AN ADDITIONAL BAND ALLOWS US TO ESTIMATE A CI OF 5.0, I.E. WINDS OF AROUND 80KT. DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM REUNION VALIDATES THIS ESTIMATE, WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OF 82KT AT 3000M. THESE VALUES WEAKEN DURING THE CURRENT PASSAGE OVER REUNION. VALUES OF 971HPA WERE MEASURED OVER NORTH-WEST REUNION AS THE EYE WALL PASSED OVER AT 06UTC. 10MIN GUSTS OF 91KT WERE MEASURED AT ROLAND GARROS AIRPORT IN REUNION. SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF 7.3M MEASURED EAST OF REUNION. BELAL CONTINUES ON AN EAST-SOUTH-EAST TO SOUTH-EAST TRACK, LANDING PARTIALLY ON THE ISLAND OF REUNION THIS MONDAY AT 06UTC. AS IT APPROACHES REUNION, THE TERRAIN SHOULD HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON BELAL'S TRACK, BUT THE EYEWALL SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO TOUCH REUNION. BELAL CONTINUES ITS OVERALL EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL TUESDAY, AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A NEW RIDGE SWELLING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWDOWN IN MOVEMENT: A PHASE OF QUASI-STATIONARITY OR EVEN A LOOP TO THE NORTH IS THEN CONCEIVABLE, WHILE REMAINING IN THE TROPICAL DOMAIN. IN THE LONGER TERM, CONTRADICTORY DIRECTING CURRENTS CONTINUE TO MAKE TRACK PREDICTION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, AND THE RSMC IS CURRENTLY OPTING FOR AN ERRATIC TRACK ON THESE TIMESCALES, WHICH MAY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY. FOLLOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTH-WEST SHEAR, INTENSITY IS LEVELLING OFF: BELAL WILL NOT PASS THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER, AS IT INTERACTS WITH REUNION'S TOPOGRAPHY, INTENSITY MAY FLUCTUATE VERY TEMPORARILY AS WINDS INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DUE TO REUNION'S TOPOGRAPHY. ALL THESE PARAMETERS SHOULD, HOWEVER, LEAD TO A RELATIVE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AFTER PASSING OVER OR CLOSE TO REUNION. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN, ALLOWING BELAL TO CONTINUE EVOLVING AT SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. HOWEVER, ITS ERRATIC TRACK STARTING MID-WEEK COULD REDUCE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : REUNION: - CYCLONIC FORCE WINDS UNDERWAY ON REUNION WITH PASSAGE OF THE EYE WALL. END OF STORM FORCE ON MONDAY NIGHT. END OF NEAR GALE FORCE FOR TUESDAY MORNING. - HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 200-400MM IN 24HRS OVER LOW-LYING AREAS AND AROUND 1000-1500MM IN 24HRS OVER HIGHER-LYING AREAS BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING. - WAVES AROUND 8M ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH 2 TIMES THESE HEIGHTS. - A SURGE OF AROUND 50CM IS EXPECTED. MAURITIUS : - MAURITIUS NO LONGER AFFECTED BY DIRECT IMPACT. - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ON MONDAY EVENING. - HEAVY RAINFALL OF AROUND 100MM IN 24HRS ON MONDAY AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. - WAVES EXCEEDING 6M ON MONDAY.=
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WTIO30 FMEE 151213 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/2/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/15 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 56.2 E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/16 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/16 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/17 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SW: 230 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/17 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/18 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0 72H: 2024/01/18 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/19 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 0 120H: 2024/01/20 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: PT=4.0 CI=5.0 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BELAL HAS HEATED UP AND THE MINIMUM IS NO LONGER CENTERED IN THE CONVECTION. THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ASCAT SWATH MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER, WHICH HAS BEEN DETERMINED USING HRV IMAGES. IT HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION, INDICATING A WEAKENING DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S PASSAGE OVER REUNION. A DVORAK ANALYSIS IN CDO ESTIMATES A PT OF 4.0, AND BY INERTIA THE CI IS KEPT AT 5.0, I.E. WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 80KT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ESTIMATE WEAKER WINDS AT 45-50KT. A COMPROMISE WITH THESE ANALYSES IS THEREFORE MADE, AND THE ANALYZED WINDS ARE REVISED TO 65KT. THE BELAL SYSTEM IS THEREFORE STILL CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE EYEWALL HITS REUNION. AFTER PASSING OVER THE ISLAND, BELAL CONTINUES ITS GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT UNTIL TUESDAY, AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. IN MID-WEEK, WITH A NEW RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, IT MOVES EASTWARDS. THEN, MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWDOWN IN MOVEMENT: A LOOP TO THE NORTH OR EVEN A QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE IS THEN POSSIBLE, WHILE REMAINING IN THE TROPICAL DOMAIN. ON LONGER TIMESCALES, CONTRADICTORY DIRECTING CURRENTS CONTINUE TO MAKE TRACK FORECASTS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, AND THE RSMC IS CURRENTLY OPTING FOR AN ERRATIC TRACK ON THESE TIMESCALES, WHICH MAY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY. AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM REUNION, BELAL RETURNS TO GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD ENABLE IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY, OR EVEN INCREASE IT SLIGHTLY IN THE SHORT TERM. BY MID-WEEK, BELAL'S ERRATIC TRACK COULD TAKE IT BACK TO WATERS WITH LOWER POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION, THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD CAUSE IT TO BEGIN AN INITIAL SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY, WHICH WOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. BELAL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE POST-CYCLONIC STAGE FROM FRIDAY, SUBSEQUENTLY EVOLVING INTO A FILLING LOW. EXPECTED IMPACT ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : REUNION: - END OF STORM FORCE ON MONDAY NIGHT. END OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS FOR TUESDAY MORNING. - HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE ORDER OF 250-300MM IN 24H OVER THE SOUTHEAST HEIGHTS AND IN THE ORDER OF 200-250MM IN 24H IN THE SOUTH. - WAVES OF AROUND 6-8M IN THE EAST AND SOUTH-EAST ON MONDAY EVENING, QUICKLY SUBSIDING. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH 2 TIMES THESE HEIGHTS. MAURITIUS: - MAURITIUS NO LONGER AFFECTED BY DIRECT IMPACT. - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. - WAVES 4 TO 6M ON MONDAY, WEAKENING TIMIDLY ON TUESDAY.=
最后于 2024-01-15 21:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 151500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 21.3S 56.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 56.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 22.0S 57.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 22.6S 59.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 22.8S 60.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 22.7S 62.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 22.3S 63.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 21.8S 63.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.5S 62.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 56.5E. 15JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66 NM SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151200Z IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 151500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.3S 56.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 66 NM SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AS INDICATED ON ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S TRACKED JUST NORTH OF LA REUNION NEAR 150600Z THEN DIPPED ABRUPTLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE ISLAND. HOURLY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SAINT DENIS (61980) INDICATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 56 KNOTS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) WITH A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE VALUE OF 977.8 MB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPID WEAKENING OF CORE CONVECTION, WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. A 151200Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WITH SHALLOW BANDING EXPOSED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. CONSEQUENTLY, RECENT CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED RAPIDLY AND NOW RANGE FROM 49 TO 57 KNOTS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES DECREASED BUT REMAIN IN THE T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS) RANGE WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.5 TO 5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED STEERING RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS FMEE: T5.0 - 90 KTS FIMP: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 151200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING RIDGE. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WEST AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND PRODUCING A MORE ERRATIC, QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION. IN GENERAL, TC 05S WILL WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ONLY THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A 45 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES QUICKLY AFTER TAU 36 WITH POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE 150000Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES (EPS AND GEFS) ALSO INDICATE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK THUS THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-16 04:45:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 151818 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/2/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/15 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 56.9 E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/16 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 360 SW: 345 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65 24H: 2024/01/16 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/17 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/17 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/18 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 45 72H: 2024/01/18 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 65 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/19 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 0 120H: 2024/01/20 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: PT=4.0 CI=5.0 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BELAL'S CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS REMAINED FAIRLY LOOSE, BUT THE TEMPERATURE OF THE CLOUD TOPS HAS COOLED SOMEWHAT, WITH A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. MICOR-WAVE SSMIS IMAGES FROM 1354 SHOW DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION, THE ASCAT PASS AT 1730Z SHOWS A WEAKENING OF THE MEAN WINDS. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES AVAILABLE, BELAL HAS BEEN RETRODASED TO THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH 60KT WIND. BELAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST UNTIL TUESDAY, AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. IN MID-WEEK, WITH A NEW RIDGE SWELLING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, IT MOVES EASTWARDS. THEN MORE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWING OF THE MOVEMENT AND A TURN TO THE NORTH. ON LONGER TIME SCALES, THE CONTRADICTORY DIRECTING FLOWS CONTINUE TO MAKE TRAJECTORY PREDICTION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, AND THE RSMC IS CURRENTLY OPTING FOR A GENERALLY WESTERLY TRAJECTORY, WHICH MAY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY. AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM REUNION, BELAL RETURNS TO RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, BUT SHOULD BE CONSTRAINED BY A MORE PRONOUNCED WESTERLY SHEAR, ALLOWING DRY AIR TO APPROACH THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISH. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND, BELAL COULD WEAKEN MORE MARKEDLY AND BEGIN TO FILL IN. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : REUNION: - END OF STORM FORCE ON MONDAY NIGHT. END OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY MORNING. - RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE ORDER OF 200-250MM IN 24H OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HEIGHTS AND IN THE ORDER OF 150-200MM IN 24H IN THE SOUTH. - WAVES AROUND 6M TONIGHT THEN CLOSE TO 4M TOMORROW. MAURITIUS : - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. - WAVES CLOSE TO 4-5M, WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY.=
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WTIO30 FMEE 160055 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/2/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BELAL) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/16 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 58.1 E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 250 SW: 325 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 160 NW: 130 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/16 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 240 SW: 270 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 55 24H: 2024/01/17 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 260 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 55 36H: 2024/01/17 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55 48H: 2024/01/18 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/18 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 285 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 55 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 0 72H: 2024/01/19 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/20 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP 120H: 2024/01/21 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: PT=4.5 CI=5.0 FOLLOWING THE 1445Z SAR OBSERVATION, BELAL'S INTENSITY AT 18Z HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARDS TO 65KT. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BELAL'S CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN ORGANIZED INTO A CDO, WITH A CLEAR UPSURGE IN CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. IN ADDITION, THE 2137 ASMR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CLEARLY VISIBLE, ALBEIT SHREDDED, EYE. WITH THESE ELEMENTS, AS WELL AS THE ASCAT PASS OF 1815Z, THE BELAL SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF 65KT. BELAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST UNTIL TUESDAY, AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. BY MID-WEEK, WITH A NEW RIDGE SWELLING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, IT IS MOVING EASTWARDS. THERE IS A STRONG DIVERGENCE BETWEEN MODELS CONCERNING BELAL'S LONGER-TERM TRACK. THE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWING DOWN OF THE MOVEMENT, A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND THEN A FURTHER MOVE TO THE WEST BEFORE PLUNGING INTO THE EXTRA-TROPICAL DOMAIN. RSMC TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE DETERMINISTIC IFS MODEL, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLE MODELS, BUT THERE IS STILL A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WHICH DOES NOT RULE OUT A TURN TO THE NORTH (AS IN PREVIOUS BULLETINS). BELAL IS STILL EVOLVING UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ENABLING IT TO MAINTAIN ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS (OR CLOSE TO IT) OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS BELAL'S TRAJECTORY SLOWS, IT SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE WESTERLY SHEAR, ALLOWING DRY AIR TO INTRUDE AROUND ITS CENTER. IT WOULD THEN BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING. DEPENDING ON ITS LONGER-TERM TRACK, BELAL COULD GRADUALLY FILL IN. HOWEVER, SOME SCENARIOS SUGGEST A REINTENSIFICATION WHILE REMAINING IN THE TROPICAL DOMAIN. THIS IS NOT THE SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE RSMC. EXPECTED IMPACT ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : REUNION: - END OF NEAR GALE FOR TUESDAY MORNING. - WAVES CLOSE TO 4M DROPPING. MAURITIUS: - END OF NEAR GALE FOR TUESDAY MORNING. - WAVES CLOSE TO 4-5M, DECREASING WEDNESDAY.=
