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WTXS31 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 22.1S 57.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 57.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 22.8S 59.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 23.2S 61.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 23.4S 63.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 23.2S 64.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 23.1S 62.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 23.7S 61.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 25.8S 61.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 58.3E. 16JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160000Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 22.1S 57.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 123 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BELAL) CONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AT 9KTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY, SHOWING A MOSTLY CLOUD-FREE AREA BEING ENHANCED BY THE PROMINENT DEEP-LAYER WESTERLIES THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ENCOUNTER. IN SUCH, OUTFLOW ALOFT HAS SHIFTED TO PREDOMINANTLY EASTWARD AND HAS CAUSED THE VORTEX TO DEVELOP AN EASTWARD TILT WITH HEIGHT. THE MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS GRADUALLY EMERGED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG (25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 152315Z SSMIS 37GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED STEERING RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 152330Z CIMSS AIDT: 50 KTS AT 152330Z CIMSS DPRINT: 54KTS AT 160000Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 30+ KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S (BELAL) IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE REDIRECTED BY RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND EAST, STEERING THE SYSTEM ONTO A NEAR RECIPROCAL TRACK HEADING THROUGH TAU 60. OVER THIS PERIOD, THE STRONG (20-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER SYSTEM INTENSITY. AS THE SYSTEM CHECKMARKS BACK TO A NEAR RECIPROCAL HEADING NEAR TAU 60 IT WILL THEN MAKE A GRADUAL TURN POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 120, SUBJECTING THE SYSTEM TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 TO 27 C) AND, ULTIMATELY, STEADILY DECAY AND WEAKEN THE TC AS IT EMBEDS FURTHER INTO DEEP WESTERLIES. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 60, SUGGESTING TC 05S (BELAL) WILL TRACK EASTWARD AT 9-10 KTS THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN ABRUPTLY BEGIN TO STALL OUT TRACK SPEED FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 60. NEARLY ALL JTWC MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS, EXCEPT NAVGEM, SHOW THE SYSTEM CHECK MARKING BACK ON A NEAR RECIPROCAL TRACK HEADING NEAR TAU 60. FROM TAU 72 FORWARD, A MYRIAD OF TRACK SOLUTIONS ARE OFFERED, ALL WITH A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT. ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF THE MEMBERS, TRACKING THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 120, AND UKMET IS THE FURTHEST EAST, TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL DECAY IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH TAU 60, AND THEN STEADILY DROP AS THE TRACK CHECKMARKS AND TRACKS POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 120. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“贝拉尔”向东偏南方向移动
时 间：16日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“贝拉尔”，BELAL
中心位置：南纬22.1度、东经58.1度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：12级（33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）
中心气压：970百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港南偏东方向约230公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贝拉尔”由14级减弱到12级
预报结论：“贝拉尔”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向东偏南方向移动，强度变化不大。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月16日09时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 160653 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/2/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/16 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 58.9 E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 250 SW: 325 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 160 NW: 130 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/16 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 325 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 55 24H: 2024/01/17 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/17 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/18 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 0 60H: 2024/01/18 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 220 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 0 72H: 2024/01/19 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/20 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 100 120H: 2024/01/21 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: PT=3.5 CI=4.5 BELAL PRESENTS A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN, WHOSE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ON THE 01:48 F17 MICROWAVE IMAGERY, A 30NM WESTWARD SHIFT CAN BE SEEN BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTERS. AN ARC OF SHEAR IS ALSO VISIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM ON HRV IMAGERY. FINALLY, OBSERVATION IN PRECIPITABLE WATER (MIMIC TPW CIMSS) SHOWS US AN ATTEMPTED INTRUSION OF DRY AIR. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALLOWS US TO DETERMINE AN INTENSITY OF 65KT BY INERTIA. HOWEVER, THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES OF OTHER AGENCIES ARE WEAKER, IN THE ORDER OF 45-60KT, SO A COMPROMISE WAS MADE TO DETERMINE AN AVERAGE WIND INTENSITY OF 55 KT, AND SO BELAL IS DOWNGRADED TO THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. BELAL IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF ITS POSITION, IMPOSING A SHORT-TERM EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK. THEN, FROM WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL FIND ITSELF IN A FLAT LOW, SUBJECT TO CONTRACTIONARY STEERING FLOWS THAT WILL REDUCE ITS SPEED. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THE DISPERSION OF WHICH REMAINS STRONG BEYOND WEDNESDAY EVENING, INDUCING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SYSTEM'S FINAL TRACK. BELAL IS STILL BENEFITING FROM ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENABLE IT TO REMAIN A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM UNTIL THURSDAY, WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOIST AIR ALOFT AND STILL-WARM SEA SURFACE WATERS, DESPITE WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR. FROM THURSDAY, THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE EFFECTIVE AND DRY AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER CLOSE TO THE CENTER, REDUCING THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BECOME A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE TO THE STAGE OF FILLING DEPRESSION THEN RESIDUAL DEPRESSION. EXPECTED IMPACT ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : REUNION: - A STRONG TO VERY STRONG SEA STATE IS STILL PRESENT THIS MORNING NEAR THE EASTERN COASTS WITH WAVES APPROACHING 4M, BUT THE SWELL IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. MAURITIUS: - WAVES CLOSE TO 4-5M THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.=
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“贝拉尔”向东偏南方向移动
时 间：16日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“贝拉尔”，BELAL
中心位置：南纬22.9度、东经58.9度
强度等级：强热带风暴
最大风力：11级（30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：982百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港南偏东方向约345公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贝拉尔”由14级减弱到11级
预报结论：“贝拉尔”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向东偏南方向移动，强度变化不大。
图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月16日15时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 161253 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/2/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/16 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 60.1 E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 54 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 350 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 280 34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/17 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 315 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/17 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 315 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 100 36H: 2024/01/18 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 75 48H: 2024/01/18 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 230 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 0 60H: 2024/01/19 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 0 72H: 2024/01/19 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/20 12 UTC: 27.0 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP 120H: 2024/01/21 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=3.0 CI=4.0 BELAL PRESENTS A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN, WHOSE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE CENTER IS NOW OUTSIDE THE MAIN CONVECTION AND CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE WEST-NORTH-WEST SHEAR IS CONFIRMED BY THE 09H46Z GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A 30-MINUTE SHIFT BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE MID-TROPOSPHERE CENTER. NOTE ALSO THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER OBSERVATION (MIMIC TPW CIMSS) SHOWS AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH. FINALLY, A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 05H26Z ALLOWED US TO UPDATE THE WIND EXTENSIONS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA, AS WELL AS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES, ARE IN THE ORDER OF 50KT. GIVEN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS A HIGHLY DEGRADED WALL, THIS INTENSITY VALUE WILL THEREFORE BE ADOPTED, AND BELAL WILL KEEP ITS SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STATUS. BELAL IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF ITS POSITION, IMPOSING A SHORT-TERM EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK. THEN, FROM WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL FIND ITSELF IN A BAROMETRIC FLAT LOW, SUBJECT TO CONTRACTIONARY STEERING FLOWS THAT WILL REDUCE ITS SPEED. RSMC PREDICTION IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHOSE DISPERSION IS STILL WIDELY DISPERSED BEYOND WEDNESDAY EVENING, LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SYSTEM'S FINAL TRACK. BELAL STILL BENEFITS FROM MIXED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH ALLOW IT TO MAINTAIN ITS STATUS AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 24 HOURS, BUT ITS OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS BECOMING LESS AND LESS ENERGETIC, AND ITS ALTITUDE IS BECOMING MORE CONTRARY. THE MOVE OF BELAL, IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE WESTERN SHEAR, IS STILL LIMITING ITS DESTRUCTIVE EFFECT. LATER, THIS SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE EFFECTIVE AND DRY AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN CLOSE TO THE CENTER, REDUCING THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BECOME A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A SUSTAINED WEAKENING. EXPECTED IMPACT ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : REUNION: - A STRONG SEA STATE IS STILL PRESENT CLOSE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTS, WITH WAVES APPROACHING 3/4M, BUT REGULARLY DECREASING UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. MAURITIUS: - WAVES CLOSE TO 3-4M, DECREASING REGULARLY UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.=
最后于 2024-01-16 21:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 161500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 23.1S 59.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 59.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 23.4S 61.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 23.7S 63.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 23.9S 64.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 23.9S 64.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 25.2S 62.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 60.2E. 16JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161200Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 161500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 23.1S 59.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 295 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BELAL) CONTINUING TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. ELEVATED MID- LEVEL WIND SHEAR (20-25KTS) HAS STEADILY DECOUPLED THE STORM OVER THE LAST TWELVE HOURS REVEALING AN OPEN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OFFSET TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL CONVECTION. OUTFLOW ALOFT PRIMARILY FLOWS SOUTHEAST FROM THE DISLOCATED REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL CONVECTION. CLEAR REGIONS TO THE WEST OF BELAL WRAP INTO THE STORM AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ENGULF AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) UP TO 28C CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SUPPORT FROM A 161146Z SSMIS 37GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWED A CLEAR-CUT MICROWAVE EYE-LIKE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF AGENCY SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FIXES INCLUDING CIMSS AIDT ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS AND 161030Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 51 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 161030Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: TRUNCATING THE FORECAST AT TAU 72 AS THE STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S (BELAL) IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48 WHILE STEERED BY THE NER TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BY TAU 36 AS IT RUNS INTO A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST WHICH EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AFTER TAU 48, TC BELAL WILL VEER SHARPLY SOUTHWEST AS THE NER TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND THE STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS TO THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. BELAL IS ANTICIPATED TO MAINTAIN 50 KNOT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 AS COMPETING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OFFSET ONE ANOTHER. BY TAU 24 HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL EXPERIENCE A MORE RAPID WEAKENING TREND, AS WIND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO APPROXIMATELY 30KTS BY TAU 48 AND INCREASE TO 55-60KTS BY TAU 96. A RADIOSONDE SOUNDING FROM FMEE SHOWS THAT MOISTURE CEASES ABOVE 700MB, AND DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM AND WEAKEN THE STORMS INTENSITY AS IT TRAVELS TO THE EAST SOUTH-EAST AND THEN WEST SOUTH-WEST. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THE MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE ANTICIPATED TO OVERCOME THE FAVORABLE SST OF 26C AND DISSIPATE THE STORM BY TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, SHOWING A FAIRLY WELL-CONSTRAINED CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 50NM. HOWEVER, BY TAU 60 THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS DEVIATE 180 DEGREES, WITH UKMET REPRESENTING THE EAST BOUNDARY AND GFS ENSEMBLE ON THE WEST. BY TAU 72, NEARLY ALL MEMBERS SHOW THE SYSTEM TURNING BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BUT VARY SHARPLY IN THE SPEED OF THE SOUTHWEST TRACK, LEADING TO A VERY WIDE MODEL SPREAD OF 350NM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON A STEADY-STATE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS, THEN ANTICIPATES A DECREASE STARTING AT TAU 24, DROPPING FROM 50KTS STEADILY TO 30KTS BY TAU 72, WHEN THE SYSTEM ULTIMATELY DISSIPATES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-17 04:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 161839 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/2/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/16 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 61.4 E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 54 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 350 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 280 34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/17 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 345 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/17 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 315 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 100 36H: 2024/01/18 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 0 48H: 2024/01/18 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 95 60H: 2024/01/19 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 95 72H: 2024/01/19 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: PT=4.0 CI=4.0- OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BELAL'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED. FROM A SHEARED CONFIGURATION, WE ARE NOW IN A BANDED OR EVEN CDO CONFIGURATION WITH A STRUCTURE OF ADDITIONAL BANDS. IN THE LATTER CONFIGURATION, HOWEVER, THE CENTER WOULD BE A LITTLE TOO MUCH ON THE EDGE. THIS CONFIGURATION COULD REFLECT AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR PENETRATING CLOSE TO THE CENTER. COMBINING THE DIFFERENT SOURCES OF DVORAK ANALYSIS, WE COULD BE ON A 3.5+ ANALYSIS, BUT DUE TO THE VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER, THE RSMC PREFERS TO MAKE A PT ANALYSIS AT 4.0 LEADING TO A CI OF 4.0-. THE PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 1700UTC PROVIDES MAXIMUM VALUES AT 50KT. IN THIS CONTEXT OF RECENT INTENSIFICATION, IT CAN BE ESTIMATED THAT THE ESTIMATED VALUES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, CONFIRMING THE CHOICE OF A CI AT 4.0- WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 55KT. WITH NO CHANGE IN TRACK, AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM, BELAL CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF ITS POSITION: A SHORT-TERM EASTERLY THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK IS MAINTAINED FOR ALMOST 18-24H. THEN, AT THE END OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM FINDS ITSELF IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHOSE CENTERS OF ACTION ARE LITTLE MARKED AND QUITE DISTANT FROM BELAL. AS A RESULT, THERE WAS NO CLEAR DIRECTIONAL FLOW, WHICH SLOWED THE SYSTEM'S SPEED OF MOVEMENT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKENING OF BELAL'S INTENSITY, THE STEERING FLOW GRADUALLY MIGRATES TOWARDS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE, REVERSING THE STEERING FLOW. THE TRACK REVERTS TO THE WEST AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST. BUT AT THESE TIMES (THURSDAY), THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS IS STILL QUITE LARGE, LEAVING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE REVERSAL. THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST OPTS FOR A MORE LASTING REVERSAL, LEAVING A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. BELAL IS STILL BENEFITING FROM MIXED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ENABLING IT TO REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. HOWEVER, BELAL'S MOVEMENT IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT LIMITING ITS DESTRUCTURING EFFECT, LEAVING A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. THEREAFTER, THIS SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE EFFECTIVE AND, AIDED BY AN INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR, INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE MUCH MORE MARKED BY THURSDAY, AS BELAL MOVES BACK ONTO COLDER WATERS AND INTO DRIER AIR. IN THIS CONTEXT, CONVECTION WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, LEADING BELAL TO THE STAGE OF A FILLING DEPRESSION AND THEN A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : - INCREASE IN CYCLONIC SWELL TO LESS THAN 3M.=
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WTIO30 FMEE 170047 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/2/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/17 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5 S / 62.9 E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 13 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/17 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/18 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 110 36H: 2024/01/18 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 0 48H: 2024/01/19 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 95 60H: 2024/01/19 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW 72H: 2024/01/20 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=3.0 CI=4.0- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BELAL'S CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN GREATLY DISRUPTED BY AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. BEGUN SHORTLY BEFORE THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN, THE DRY AIR HAS CUT THE SPIRAL BAND DISSOCIATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER FROM THE REST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS AIR IS CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF BELAL, GREATLY DIMINISHING THE LOGARITHMIC SPIRAL. IN THIS CONFIGURATION, IT IS DIFFICULT TO GIVE A T-VALUE GREATER THAN 3, BUT THE CI STILL ALLOWS MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 55KT, BUT NOT FOR MUCH LONGER. THE GCOM PASS OF 2043UTC FOLLOWED BY THE F18 OF 2309UTC CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR WITH AN OPENING CORE, AS DOES THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM ON AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK. APART FROM A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN THE SHORT TERM, LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. BELAL CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF ITS POSITION, GIVING IT AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK FOR 18 HOURS. THEN, AT THE END OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM FINDS ITSELF IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHOSE CENTERS OF ACTION ARE LITTLE MARKED AND QUITE DISTANT FROM BELAL. AS A RESULT, THERE WAS NO CLEAR DIRECTIONAL FLOW, SLOWING THE SYSTEM'S SPEED OF MOVEMENT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKENING OF BELAL'S INTENSITY, THE STEERING FLOW GRADUALLY MIGRATES TOWARDS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE, REVERSING THE STEERING FLOW. THE TRACK REVERTS TO THE WEST AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST. BUT AT THESE TIMES (THURSDAY), THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS IS STILL QUITE LARGE, LEAVING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE REVERSAL. THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST MAINTAINS A MORE LASTING REVERSAL, LEAVING A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. BELAL'S DISPLACEMENT IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE WESTERLY SHEAR SOMEWHAT LIMITS ITS DESTRUCTIVE EFFECT, ALLOWING IT TO TEMPORARILY RETAIN ITS STRONG TROPICAL STORM STATUS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. THEREAFTER, THIS SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE EFFECTIVE AND, HELPED BY THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR, THE INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE MUCH MORE MARKED BY THURSDAY, AS BELAL MOVES BACK ONTO COLDER WATERS AND INTO DRIER AIR. IN THIS CONTEXT, CONVECTION WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, LEADING BELAL TO THE STAGE OF A FILLING DEPRESSION AND THEN A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION. EXPECTED IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : - INCREASE IN CYCLONIC SWELL TO LESS THAN 3M.=
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WTXS31 PGTW 170300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 24.2S 62.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 62.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 24.6S 63.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 24.6S 65.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 24.5S 65.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 24.4S 64.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 25.6S 62.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 62.9E. 17JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170000Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 17 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 170300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 24.2S 62.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 384 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) CONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, MAINTAINING INTENSITY DESPITE DRY AIR ENTRAINING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. MODERATE TO HIGH (20KTS-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO CAUSE EVIDENT HAVOC TO THE TC STRUCTURE, EVIDENCED BY INTERMITTENT STRIPPING OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE CENTRAL CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG WESTERLY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT CARRIES AWAY CIRRUS FILAMENTS FAR AHEAD OF THE STORMS PROJECTED TRACK. A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN OBSERVED EXHIBITING TROCHOIDAL MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AS IT CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO REALIGN WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. SEA SURFACE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO NEARLY UNFAVORABLE LEVELS (26-27 C) AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE A SUSTAINMENT TREND, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 162259Z SSMIS 37GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 162039Z AMSR2 SATELLITE DERIVED WINDSPEED IMAGE, AS WELL AS THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: AMSR2 SATELLITE DERIVED WINDSPEED CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: BUILDING STR NORTHEAST OF TC 05S AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 162100Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 26-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EASTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S (BELAL), LIKE THE GREATLY ALIGNED MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, GRADUALLY DECAYING ALONG THE WAY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE IN THE COMING HOURS. UPON COMING TO AN ABRUPT HALT AROUND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO THEN TRACK ON A WESTWARD TRACK, GRADUALLY TURNING TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 72. THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FULLY DISSIPATE TC 05S PRIOR TO TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT THAT TC 05S WILL TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD UNTIL TAU 36 WHEN THE SYSTEM STALLS TRACK SPEED DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING STR TO THE NORTHEAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT INTENSITY MAY GRADUALLY FALL TO 45KTS BY TAU 36. THEREAFTER, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM TRACKS ON A NEAR RECIPROCAL HEADING WESTWARD, SLOWLY TURNING TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 72. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TC WILL HAVE FULLY DISSIPATED PRIOR TO TAU 72. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“贝拉尔”向东偏南方向移动
时 间：17日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“贝拉尔”，BELAL
中心位置：南纬23.5度、东经62.9度
强度等级：强热带风暴
最大风力：11级（30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：983百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏南方向约670公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贝拉尔”由12级减弱到11级
预报结论：“贝拉尔”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向东偏南方向移动，强度变化不大。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月17日08时00分）