WTIO30 FMEE 170636
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/2/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 63.5 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 285 SW: 305 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/17 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 390 SW: 305 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 140

24H: 2024/01/18 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 400 SW: 345 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 100

36H: 2024/01/18 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 55

48H: 2024/01/19 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 155

60H: 2024/01/19 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2024/01/20 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BELAL HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE, AND THE SYSTEM IS
UNDERGOING AN INTRUSION OF DRY MID-TROPOSHERE AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
AS SHOWN BY THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 0057Z AND 0133Z. MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, BELAL IS DRIVEN BY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE,
WHICH THEN FORCES IT TO MOVE EASTWARDS FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS. THEN, AT
THE END OF THE DAY, THE SYSTEM FINDS ITSELF IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHOSE
CENTERS OF ACTION ARE LITTLE MARKED AND QUITE DISTANT FROM BELAL.
THIS RESULTS IN A CONTEST WITHOUT A CLEAR DIRECTIONAL FLOW, SLOWING
DOWN THE SYSTEM'S SPEED OF MOVEMENT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKENING
OF BELAL'S INTENSITY, THE STEERING FLOW GRADUALLY MIGRATES TOWARDS
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE, REVERSING THE STEERING FLOW. THE TRACK REVERTS
TO THE WEST AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST. BUT AT THESE TIMES (THURSDAY),
THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS IS STILL QUITE LARGE, LEAVING
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE TURN. THE CURRENT
RSMC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SAME PHILOSOPHY AS THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT
WITH A MORE EASTERLY TURN GIVEN THE CURRENT DISPLACEMENT.
BELAL'S MOVEMENT IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE WESTERLY SHEAR SOMEWHAT
LIMITS ITS DESTRUCTIVE EFFECT, ALLOWING IT TO REMAIN A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW MORE HOURS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR.
THEREAFTER, THIS SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE EFFECTIVE AND, HELPED BY
THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR, THE INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM
TONIGHT ONWARDS. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE MUCH MORE MARKED BY THURSDAY,
AS BELAL MOVES BACK OVER COLDER WATERS AND INTO DRIER AIR. IN THIS
CONTEXT, CONVECTION WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, TAKING BELAL FROM A
FILLING DEPRESSION TO A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER THREATENS INHABITED LAND.=

全球热带气旋监测公报

WTIO30 FMEE 171236
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/2/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 63.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 285 SW: 305 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/18 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 400 SW: 315 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 120

24H: 2024/01/18 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 0

36H: 2024/01/19 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 85

48H: 2024/01/19 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2024/01/20 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BELAL HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE, AND THE SYSTEM IS
UNDERGOING AN INTRUSION OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR. BASED ON
AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES, MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 45KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BELAL IS DRIVEN BY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, FORCING IT TO MOVE
EASTWARDS FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS. THEN DURING THE NIGHT, THE SYSTEM
FINDS ITSELF IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHOSE CENTERS OF ACTION ARE LITTLE
MARKED AND QUITE DISTANT FROM BELAL. ITS MOVEMENT SPEED THEN
DECREASES. AS BELAL'S INTENSITY WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW GRADUALLY
MIGRATES TOWARDS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND REVERSES. THE TRACK TURNS
BACK TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN THE SOUTH-WEST. THE DISPERSION OF THE
MODELS REMAINS FAIRLY WIDE, LEAVING SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE REVERSAL.

BELAL'S INTENSITY IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE INTRUSION OF DRY
AIR TOWARDS THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. THIS WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY,
WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER COLDER WATERS. ON FRIDAY, CONVECTION
WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, TAKING BELAL FROM A FILLING LOW TO A
REMNANT LOW.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER THREATENS INHABITED LAND.=

WTXS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 011    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171200Z --- NEAR 24.2S 63.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 63.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 24.2S 64.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 24.1S 64.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 23.9S 64.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 24.3S 62.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 63.9E.
17JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 511
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171200Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z AND 181500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.


SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.2S 63.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 511 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET


SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TC 05S
(BELAL) WITH A MINIMALLY OBSTRUCTED VIEW OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A DISLOCATED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE STORM CONTINUES TO CREEP EASTWARD
AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS IDENTIFIED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BY A 171132Z 37GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALING AN ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH AN EYE-LIKE
STRUCTURE AND THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY MSI REPRESENTING BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
FIXES LISTED BELOW. POWERFUL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
(25-30KTS) ALONG WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE THE STORM TO LOSE STEAM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (TAU 48) DESPITE FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 26-27C.


INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE


CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 170900Z


FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD


ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW


3. FORECAST REASONING.


SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S (BELAL) IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO
CREEP EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE NER TO THE NORTH FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT THEN COMES TO A STOP AND BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT RUNS INTO A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
FOLLOWING TAU 24, AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS, THE STEERING LEVEL 
PROGRESSIVELY LOWERS, RESULTING IN A SHARP TURN BACK TO THE WEST THEN 
SOUTHWEST, ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE 
STORM WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE INTENSITY AS STRONG WIND SHEAR FROM THE 
EAST (25-30KTS) WILL TEAR APART THE VORTEX STRUCTURE, LIMITING THE 
SYSTEM'S CAPABILITY TO REINTENSIFY. TC 05S WILL BE FURTHER WEAKENED BY 
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL FULLY ENGULF THE REMNANT 
CIRCULATION. ULTIMATELY THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND PERSISTENT 
SHEAR WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
TC 05S (BELAL) WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW IN ITS TRANSIT EAST AND NEARLY
COME TO A STOP BY TAU 12. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER 180 DEGREES IN
DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT THE STORM WILL TAKE A NORTHERLY OR
SOUTHERLY ROUTE BY TAU 24, WITH A 90 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BOUNDED
BY COAMPS-TC TO THE SOUTH AND GALWEM TO THE NORTH. DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHICH POLE THE STORM WILL VEER, THE MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE STORM WILL RECURVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
TAU 36. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST, OPENING
TO 212 NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (TAU 48). ALL JTWC
CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
FOLLOWING TAU 12 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (TAU 48).


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

WTIO30 FMEE 171905
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/2/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.1 S / 64.4 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 48 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 535 SW: 490 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/18 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 445 SW: 370 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 110

24H: 2024/01/18 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SW: 390 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 0

36H: 2024/01/19 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 0

48H: 2024/01/19 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2024/01/20 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2024/01/20 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.5-

THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS AND
BELAL IS UNDER A WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT, ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
GIVEN FOR 19 KT BY THE LATEST CIMSS DATA, BUT IS REDUCED BY THE
SYSTEM'S EASTWARD MOVEMENT AVERAGINGB AT 5KT. THE 1137Z SSMIS F18
MICROWAVE SWATH REVEALS A DEPHASING SHIFT OF AROUND 20 MINUTES
BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER (37 GHZ) AND THE MID-TROPOSPHERE CENTER
(89GHZ), IN A WEST-EAST DIRECTION. CONVECTIVE PUFFS HAVE FLARED UP
AGAIN IN THE SYSTEM'S EASTERN SEMICIRCLE SINCE 15Z, WITH A CONVECTIVE
BAND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ADOPTING A SLIGHT CURVATURE. THE
DVORAK FMEE ESTIMATE, IN SHEARED PATTERN, GIVES A DT OF 3.0-, IN LINE
WITH THE PT AND THE LATEST CIMSS OBJECTIVE AND AMERICAN SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES. BELAL REMAINS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, BELAL IS BEING STEERED VERY TEMPORARILY BY THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH IS CAUSING IT TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARDS
UNTIL TOMORROW. THEN, AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS, LOW TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS
SHOULD TAKE OVER, ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE.
THUS, BELAL SHOULD MAKE A SHORT TURN TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
BEFORE BEING DRAGGED RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL WESTERLY AND THEN
WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION, WHILE FILLING IN. IT IS IMPORTANT TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT THE DISPERSION OF MODELS REMAINS SIGNIFICANT,
SUGGESTING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION
OF THIS TURNAROUND.

PASSING SOUTH OF THE TROPIC OF CAPRICORN, BELAL IS ENCOUNTERING LOW
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THIS CONTRIBUTES TO ITS WEAKENING, IN ADDITION TO
THE PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT WILL GRADUALLY INJECT A
SOURCE OF DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM.
BELAL'S INTENSITY SHOULD NEVERTHELESS PEAK AT THE STORM STAGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN FROM TOMORROW EVENING, WITH ITS GENERAL
WESTERLY DIRECTION, IT SHOULD WEAKEN PERMANENTLY FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.
THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL BE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE LLC, LEADING BELAL
TO THE STAGE OF A FILLING LOW, THEN A REMNANT LOW.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER THREATENS INHABITED LAND.=

WTIO30 FMEE 180040
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/2/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 64.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 48 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 795 SW: 740 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/18 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 455 SW: 390 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 110

24H: 2024/01/19 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 360 SW: 295 NW: 120

36H: 2024/01/19 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2024/01/20 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

60H: 2024/01/20 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

72H: 2024/01/21 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 295 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SEEMS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY
RETURNED UNDER THE CONVECTION, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION
THAT PICKED UP AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT, DESPITE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ALOFT THAT ARE NOT EXACTLY FAVORABLE FOR THE INTEGRITY OF
BELAL'S CLOUD PATTERN. IN FACT, ON ANALYSIS, THE SYSTEM IS ENDURING
MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERIC DEEP SHEAR (27 KT
ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA). THIS SHEAR IS EVIDENCED BY THE F-18
MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 2249 UTC, WHICH SHOWS A MUCH LARGER PHASE SHIFT
THAN THAT DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS RSMC BULLETIN, I.E. A SHIFT OF
ALMOST 50 NM BETWEEN THE CENTER OF THE LOW LAYERS (37GHZ) AND THE
CENTER OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE (89GHZ). THIS LATEST DATA MAKES THE
SYSTEM'S POSITION MORE RELIABLE, GIVEN THE LACK OF INFORMATION
OVERNIGHT. THE WIND EXTENSIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED THANKS TO THE
PARTIAL PASS OF THE ASCAT AT 1732Z. BELAL'S INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM AMERICAN AND RSMC
DATA, POINTING TO A CI OF 3.0- AND THEREFORE GALE FORCE WINDS, OF THE
ORDER OF 40 KT IN MEAN WINDS. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DATA HAVE BEEN
PLUNGING FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW. THE SATCON HAS BEEN SHOWING 3.5-
SINCE 2030Z, BUT RECENT A(I)DT DATA SKEW THE CI MORE TOWARDS 2.5+.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, BELAL IS BEING STEERED BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, FORCING IT TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARDS
UNTIL TOMORROW, BUT SLOWED BY A NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THEN, DUE TO
ITS WEAKENING, THE STEERING FLOWS SHOULD BE RESUMED AT LOWER LEVELS
(LOWER TROPOSPHERE) ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, BELAL IS SET TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
SOUTH-WEST ON FRIDAY, ACCELERATING ITS COURSE AND FILLING IN. MODELS
REMAIN WIDELY DISPERSED, SUGGESTING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM'S CURVATURE AND FINAL TRACK.

PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROPIC OF CAPRICORN, BELAL WILL ENCOUNTER
MUCH LESS OHC THAN IN RECENT DAYS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ITS
WEAKENING, IN ADDITION TO THE PERSISTENT SHEAR THAT WILL INJECT MORE
DRY AIR INTO THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM. BELAL'S
INTESITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN THIS CONTEXT. THIS WEAKENING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, CONVECTION WILL BE
PUSHED FAR TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, TAKING BELAL FROM A
FILLING DEPRESSION TO A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO LAND.=

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 012    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z --- NEAR 24.0S 64.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 64.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 23.9S 65.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 23.8S 64.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 24.1S 63.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 24.5S 62.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 64.9E.
18JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180000Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z AND 190300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.0S 64.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 483 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TC 05S
(BELAL) WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) LOCATED JUST NORTH OF AN OBSERVABLE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
BEING HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY A NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR COMPONENT. THE
STORM HAS CREPT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, AS IT IS
INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE STEERING RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS IDENTIFIED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BY
A 172246Z 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS, INDICATING AN ASYMMETRIC AND
SHALLOW EYE-LIKE FEATURE WITH DEEP, BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH CONTINUOUS
DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TC 05S
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD (TAU 48), DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 26-28C.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 172100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S (BELAL) IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOOP BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NER TO THE NORTH, SLOWS DOWN TO
A NEAR-STALL, AND EJECTS SHARPLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC
ROTATION POSITIONED DIRECTLY POLEWARD OF TC 05S BETWEEN TAU 0 AND
TAU 36. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS STRONG WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS) WILL
FURTHER DISSIPATE THE TROPICAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, DEGRADING
ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 05S WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO BE FURTHER WEAKENED A CONTINUOUS SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY, COMPLETELY ENCIRCLING THE TC BY TAU 48. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND STRONG VWS WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER
WATER BY TAU 48.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
TC 05S (BELAL) WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY SLOW IN ITS RE-CURVE TO
THE WEST THROUGH TAU 12. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT
A DIRECTION SHIFT TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED, BACKING SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH BY TAU 12, THEN PROGRESSING WEST AND SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN
TAU 24 AND TAU 36. TRACK SPREAD DURING TC 05S RE-CURVE REMAINS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 45 NM, AND INCREASING
TO A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD DURING ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TREK BETWEEN TAU
24 AND TAU 48. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE TO 150
NM NEAR TAU 48, AS TC 05S DISSIPATES WITH STRONG AND CONSTANT
INFLUENCE FROM DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT AND STRONG VWS. THE MAJORITY OF
JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STEADILY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (TAU 48). 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

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WTIO30 FMEE 180638
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/2/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 65.7 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 780 SW: 520 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 80 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/18 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 705 SW: 555 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 55

24H: 2024/01/19 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 555 SW: 465 NW: 95

36H: 2024/01/19 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2024/01/20 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2024/01/20 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 530 SW: 480 NW: 0

72H: 2024/01/21 06 UTC: 25.1 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 530 SW: 480 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

BELAL'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING, WITH
MORE SYMMETRICAL CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND EVEN AN
EMERGING EYE PATTERN AROUND 06UTC. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS
AVERAGED OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS GIVES A DT OVER 3.5, TENDING TOWARDS
4.0 ON THE LATEST IMAGES. THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS THUS RISEN TO
50KT. THE SYSTEM'S SLOWDOWN IS WEAKER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED.

BELAL'S TRACK SHOULD REACH A TURNING POINT THIS THURSDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS DRIVEN BY COMPETING RIDGES.
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT DRIVEN BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT DRIVEN BY THE LOW
TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, ESPECIALLY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS ON
FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF
THIS U-TURN.

THE RECENT RENEWED INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TEMPORARY, AND A WEAKENING
TREND SHOULD RESUME ON THURSDAY EVENING. INDEED, THE WESTERLY SHEAR
REMAINS MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG, WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INJECT DRY
AIR INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE, ESPECIALLY AS ITS MOVEMENT SLOWS AND THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL DECREASES. A RAPID WEAKENING IS THEREFORE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH CONVECTION BEING EXPELLED EAST
OF THE SYSTEM, LEADING BELAL TO WEAKEN TO REMNANT LOW STAGE, WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL IN THIS WEEK-END.

BELAL DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

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