WTIO30 FMEE 181238 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/2/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 
2.A POSITION 2024/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 66.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND 
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 740 SW: 480 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/19 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 555 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
24H: 2024/01/19 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL 
STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 0
36H: 2024/01/20 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
48H: 2024/01/20 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 0
60H: 2024/01/21 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 425 SW: 335 NW: 0
72H: 2024/01/21 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 480 SW: 405 NW: 0
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED INTENSE NEAR BELAL'S 
CENTER, WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DETECTED 
AROUND 12UTC. A 0951Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS AN IRREGULAR 
CONVECTIVE RING AT BOTH 37 AND 89GHZ, WITH A MERIDIAN TILT BETWEEN BOTH 
IMAGES, TESTIFYING ABOUT ONGOING SOUTHERLY SHEAR NEAR 30 KT BETWEEN 
850 AND 400HPA LEVELS. HOWEVER, CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SO 
FAR FAILED TO REVEAL THE EFFECTS OF THIS SHEAR, BUT THIS COULD BE THE 
CASE BY TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN VIEW OF THE 1220Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE 
WHICH SHOWS DECOUPLING OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT 55KT BASED ON MET/PT AND 
MICROWAVE AMSR2 DATA IS RATHER UNCERTAIN IN THE ABSENCE OF 
COMPLEMENTARY OBJECTIVE DATA. AFTER EXAMINATION OF THE SHEARED 
STRUCTURE ON THE LAST GPM, THE CENTER'S POSITION ESTIMATED AT 12UTC 
SEEMS A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST COMPARED WITH REALITY AND WILL BE REVISED 
AFTERHAND (THE SURFACE CENTER SEEMS NOT TO HAVE CROSSED THE 66TH EAST 
MERIDIAN AFTER ALL).
BELAL'S TRACK SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL EASTWARD U-TURN THIS THURSDAY 
NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS DRIVEN BY 
COMPETING RIDGES. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT DRIVEN UP TO NOW BY THE 
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
MOVEMENT DRIVEN BY THE LOW TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, ESPECIALLY
AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS ON FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO 
THE TIMING OF THIS U-TURN.
THE RECENT RENEWED INTENSIFICATION WAS TEMPORARY, AND A WEAKENING 
TREND SHOULD RESUME ON THURSDAY NIGHT. INDEED, THE QUITE STRONG WIND 
SHEAR SHOULD INJECT DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE, AS HINTED BY RECENT 
MICROWAVE DATA. A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS THEREFORE FORECAST FROM 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH CONVECTION BEING EXPELLED 
EAST/NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM, LEADING BELAL TO WEAKEN TO REMNANT 
LOW STAGE, WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL IN BY THIS WEEK-END.
BELAL DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.

WTXS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 013    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181200Z --- NEAR 23.9S 65.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 65.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 23.7S 65.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 23.8S 63.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 24.5S 62.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 65.5E.
18JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181200Z IS 992 MB. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 20 FEET. 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) 
WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.9S 65.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 515 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
                         MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO 
SHEAR TO THE EAST AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. AN 181210Z GMI 37 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 
CENTER, WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN 
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON THE GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY 
UNFAVORABLE DUE TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND 
ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, STRONG 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS FUELING DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE EASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE KNES SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE AND CIMSS 
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 42-47 KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 180900Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 42 KTS AT 181230Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 47 KTS AT 181300Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 42 KTS AT 181119Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK 
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH UNTIL 
AROUND TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, O5S WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE 
REORIENTS DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO 
PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN 
STEADILY AS DRY AIR ENVELOPS THE SYSTEM. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
A 65 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36. THE 180000Z ECMWF AND GFS 
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE COAMPS-TC AND HAFS-A 
GUIDANCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

WTIO30 FMEE 181857 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/2/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELAL) 
2.A POSITION 2024/01/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 65.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND 
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 480 SW: 555 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/19 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 130
24H: 2024/01/19 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
36H: 2024/01/20 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING
48H: 2024/01/20 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OBASED ON SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 1314Z AND 1350Z AND THE GPM 
FROM 1208, THE 12Z POINT HAS BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER WEST, HIGHLIGHTING 
BELAL'S NEW COURSE. IN ADDITION, MAX WIND INTENSITY WAS REVISED 
SLIGHTLY DOWNWARDS TO 50KT.
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SUBJECTED TO 
MID-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLY WIND SHEAR (17KT ANALYZED BY CIMSS) AND DRY 
AIR INTRUSION. THESE ELEMENTS HAVE GREATLY ATTENUATED THE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS MUCH SHALLOWER OR EVEN ALMOST 
ABSENT AT 18Z. MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO CONFIRM THIS DECREASE IN 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, PUSHING THE CONVECTION STILL PRESENT TO THE 
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THIS ABSENCE OF CONVECTION MAKES DVORAK 
ANALYSIS DIFFICULT, BUT BASED ON AN ESTIMATE OF MET/PT, WE OBTAIN A FINAL 
T OF 2.0. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 40KT. 
IN TERMS OF TRACK, WITH THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER AT 12Z, THE TRACK
HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERED, GIVEN THAT THE WESTWARD SHIFT HAD 
ALREADY TAKEN PLACE. WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING 
FLOWS DRIVING BELAL'S TRACK ARE NOW MORE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE (700 
OR EVEN 850HPA). THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE MOVE WESTWARDS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THEN 
SOUTH-WESTWARDS AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, BELAL IS CONFRONTED WITH MODERATE TO FAIRLY 
STRONG SHEAR, WHICH WILL INJECT MORE DRY AIR OVER THE HEART OF THE 
SYSTEM. THE WEAKENING WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW 
HOURS, LEADING BELAL TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS, 
BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING IN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
BELAL POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.

WTIO30 FMEE 190024
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/2/20232024
1.A REMNANT LOW 2 (BELAL)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 64.5 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/19 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

24H: 2024/01/20 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

36H: 2024/01/20 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(MID-TROPOSPHERE WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR INTRUSION AND COOLER WATERS)
HAVE BEEN FATAL TO THE BELAL SYSTEM. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE OF 2031Z
SHOWS THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE CENTER AND AN
OPEN EYE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, ONLY A
LOW-LEVEL VORTEX IS STILL VISIBLE. THE SYSTEM HAS THEREFORE RETURNED
TO THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION STAGE, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING
FLOWS DRIVING BELAL'S TRAJECTORY ARE NOW MORE IN THE LOWER LAYERS
(850HPA). THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE HEAD WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THIS
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, BELAL WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN GRADUALLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FORECAST.

BELAL POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=

WTXS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 014    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z --- NEAR 23.3S 64.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 64.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 23.5S 63.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 24.0S 62.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 64.3E. 19JAN24. 
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
450 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE 
PREVIOUS 12 HOURS, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S HAS UNDERGONE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND EROSION AS THE MAIN CONVECTION WAS SHEARED 
150+ NM FROM AND FULLY EXPOSING THE LLCC, AS OBSERVED ON ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, RESULTING IN A COMPLETE
LOSS OF CONVECTIVE SUPPORT THROUGH STRONG (25-30KT) RELATIVE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WRAPPING INTO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST, RESULTING IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 12 OR SOONER. 
2. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON 
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS 
OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 17 
FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) 
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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