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WTXS32 PGTW 252100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 022// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 022 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 88.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 88.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.1S 86.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 18.2S 84.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 19.0S 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.6S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 21.7S 72.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 25.9S 69.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 28.2S 70.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 87.9E. 25JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1064 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251800Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 252100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 022// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.0S 88.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1064 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (ANGGREK) SHOWING INDICATIONS OF INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING OF THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE ONCE RAGGED EYE HAS TIGHTENED AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC, MEASURING 16NM IN DIAMETER WITH TEMPERATURE OF MINUS 19C. ONCE EVIDENT SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO AND UNDER A VERY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CANOPY OVERHEAD, MEASURING 240 NM IN DIAMETER. A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (0-5KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), MODERATE (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW LEAVES ROOM FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF TC 06S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIPLE GEOSTATIONARY EIR SATELLITE IMAGES OF 251800Z SHOWING A CLEARLY DEFINED EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 251232Z RCM2 SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR IMAGE AND THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER STR TO THE SOUTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 79 KTS AT 251815Z CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 251815Z CIMSS AIDT: 87 KTS AT 251900Z CIMSS DPRINT: 86 KTS AT 251815Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 72. THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG-TRACK IS ANTICIPATED TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 120KTS BY TAU 72. FOLLOWING TAU 72, TC 06S WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC AND TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO TAU 96, ROUNDING THE APEX OF THE STR NEAR TAU 120. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH BEYOND TAU 72, SEA SURFACE TEMPS FALL SHARPLY FROM 29C AT TAU 72 TO 25C BY TAU 120 AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO CURTAIL ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FROM OCCURRING. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL TRACK AGREEMENT FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 72, AND GOOD AGREEMENT THEREAFTER. A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 83NM AT TAU 72 AND 420NM LEAVES MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAU (TAU 72 TO TAU 120). INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, SUGGESTS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR UNTIL NEAR TAU 72, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF NEAR 120KTS. THE SPREAD OBSERVED IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE OF 70KTS IS MAXIMIZED AT THIS INTERVAL, LEAVING MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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WTIO30 FMEE 260027 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/4/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/26 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 87.6 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35 60H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75 120H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 150 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=5.5- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS FLUCTUATED SLIGHTLY, TAKING ON A CLEARER STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE DVORAK EYE ANALYSIS OVER AN AVERAGE 6-HOUR PERIOD SHOWS AN INTENSIFICATION OF ANGGREK WITH ESTIMATED WIND VALUES OF 85KT. THESE VALUES ARE BROADLY CONFIRMED BY SAR SCATTEROMETER MEASUREMENTS FROM 1232UTC. ANGGREK REMAINS AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THRESHOLD. NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS CARRIED BY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK WILL THUS EVOLVE IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. AS THE RIDGE SWELLS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN OUT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARDS, PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHWEST. WITH THE DIRECTING FLOW WELL DEFINED, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY GOOD IN DIRECTOIN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SPEED AT WHICH IT WILL MOVE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD BRING IT TO THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK, DESPITE A SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR STRESS, THE EFFECTIVENESS OF WHICH IS COUNTERBALANCED BY THE SYSTEM'S RAPID WESTWARD MOVEMENT. HOWEVER, FORECASTING INTENSITY IS MADE DIFFICULT BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH COULD FLUCTUATE DUE TO INTERNAL MECHANISMS (EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE). DURING THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES, ANGGREK COULD SHOW A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR, WHICH COULD PENETRATE FURTHER INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE. THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST ATTEMPTS TO REFLECT THESE FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WITHOUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THESE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO STRUCTURAL CHANGES, EARLY NEXT WEEK ANGGREK SHOULD ENTER A MORE OR LESS RAPID PHASE OF WEAKENING, DUE TO LESS AND LESS ENERGETIC SURFACE WATERS AND, ABOVE ALL, TO A PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR, GRADUALLY BECOMING CROSS-CUTTING. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向西偏南方向移动
时 间：26日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬16.4度、东经87.6度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：14级（45米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：960百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约3200公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”强度维持不变
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度略有增强。
图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月26日08时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 260713 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/26 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 86.4 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/26 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 65 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 60H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 120H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 130 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=5.5- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AND THE CENTER HAS BECOME CLEARLY VISIBLE ON THE IR SATELLITE IMAGE. THE 11:41 PM SAR ALLOWED US TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THE WINDS AND THE MAXIMUM WIND RADIUS, WHICH IS 13NM. THE COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE FROM THE METOP C POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITE AT 03:34 CONFIRMS THIS VALUE. IT ALSO GIVES A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION, WHOSE ORGANIZATION AROUND THE CENTER HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE IR AND HRV SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO SHOW A FINE DIVERGENCE IN ALTITUDE. THE DVORAK EYE ANALYSIS OVER A 6-HOUR PERIOD SHOWS AN INTENSIFICATION, WITH WIND VALUES ESTIMATED AT 90KT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS INTENSITY, CONFIRMING ANGGREK'S TRANSITION TO AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS STEERED BY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE RIDGE SWELLS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN OUT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARDS, PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARD OR EVEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY, WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARDS. WITH THE DIRECTING FLOW WELL DEFINED, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY GOOD IN DIRECTION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SPEED AT WHICH IT WILL MOVE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WHICH HAVE ENABLED IT TO UPGRADE TO AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THIS STAGE UNTIL SATURDAY. IT WILL THEN RETURN TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON SUNDAY DUE TO A SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR STRESS, THE EFFICIENCY OF WHICH IS COUNTERBALANCED BY THE SYSTEM'S RAPID WESTWARD MOVEMENT. EARLY NEXT WEEK ANGGREK SHOULD ENTER A MORE OR LESS RAPID PHASE OF WEAKENING, DUE TO LESS AND LESS ENERGETIC SURFACE WATERS AND, ABOVE ALL, TO A PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR, GRADUALLY BECOMING CROSS-CUTTING. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
最后于 2024-01-26 15:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向西偏南方向移动
时 间：26日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬16.8度、东经86.4度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：14级（45米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：957百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约3070公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”由13级加强到14级
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度略有增强后逐渐减弱。
图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月26日14时00分）
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WTXS32 PGTW 260900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 023// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 023 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 86.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 86.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 17.9S 84.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 18.6S 82.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.1S 79.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 19.8S 76.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 22.9S 71.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 26.6S 70.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 28.8S 72.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 86.0E. 26JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1009 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260600Z IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 260900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 023// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.9S 86.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1009 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (ANGGREK) TRAVELING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS WITH A TIGHT, CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE EIR IMAGERY INDICATES EYE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 15C, WHILE CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES REACH AS COLD AS -80C AS THE STORM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST TWELVE HOURS. MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 5-10KTS AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 27-28C CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL POSITION OF 16.9S 86.5E WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE POSITION IN A 260525Z EWS-G2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN RCM-1 252341Z PASS SHOWING 105KT MAXIMUM WINDS AS WELL AS THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS FMEE: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 94 KTS AT 26645Z CIMSS ADT: 109 KTS AT 260315Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S IS ANTICIPATED TO RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST, TAKING THE STORM TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48. THE STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF TAU 120 AS TC 06S CURVES SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. LOW LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PERMIT THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO AN ANTICIPATED 120KTS BEFORE THE STORM BEGINS TO GENERALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY STARTING AT TAU 60 DUE TO A LOSS OF OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BEYOND TAU 72 RESULTING FROM THE INTRODUCTION OF DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING AS THE STORM TRANSITS SOUTH. TC 06S WILL ULTIMATELY BE DECAPITATED BY DRY AIR AND STRONG WIND SHEAR AT TAU 120, WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THE INTENSITY TO 80KTS. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF TC 06S TRACK AS SHOWN BY A SMALL CROSS-TRACK DIFFERENTIAL AT TAU 48 OPENING TO A 200NM CROSS-TRACK DIFFERENTIAL BY TAU 120. JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48-60 BEFORE LOSING INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 60-120. ONE OUTLIER IS COAMPS-TC, WHICH ANTICIPATES AN INITIAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 90KTS BY TAU 36, AND INCREASES TO 120KTS BY TAU 72 BEFORE LOSING STEAM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. ANALYSIS MAY SUGGEST THAT COAMPS-TC IS PICKING UP ON AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, EXPLAINING THE DRASTIC DIFFERENCE. HWRF ALSO IS AN EXTREME OUTLIER TAKING THE STORM INTENSITY UP TO 140KTS AROUND TAU 48-60 AND BRINGING IT TO A DRASTIC DECLINE AT 40KTS BY TAU 120. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-26 16:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 261242 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/26 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 85.4 E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 65 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 60H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/29 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 120H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 130 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=5.0+ CI=5.5 OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION HAS SLIGHTLY ALTERED, MAKING THE CENTER MORE DIFFICULT TO DETECT ON IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS STILL PRESENT AND WELL ORGANIZED AROUND THE EYE, AND CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE STILL MATERIALIZING ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF THE EYE OVER A 6-HOUR PERIOD SHOWS THAT THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED, WITH WIND VALUES ESTIMATED AT 90KT, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SYSTEM'S INERTIA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AGREE WITH THIS INTENSITY, WHICH IS THEREFORE RETAINED. NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS STEERED BY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE RIDGE SWELLS SLIGHTLY WITHIN 24 HOURS, THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN OUT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARDS, PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARD OR EVEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY, WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARDS. WITH THE DIRECTING FLOW WELL DEFINED, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY GOOD IN DIRECTION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SPEED AT WHICH IT WILL MOVE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK BENEFITS FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, KEEPING IT AT THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. IN FACT, THE SHEAR STRESS AND ATTEMPTED INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR ARE COUNTERBALANCED BY THE SYSTEM'S DISPLACEMENT. IT SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN AT THIS STAGE, CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY UNTIL SUNDAY. THEN, ON MONDAY, IT WILL RETURN TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE DUE TO A SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR STRESS, BUT ALSO TO INCREASINGLY COOL SEA SURFACE WATERS. THEREAFTER, THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND THE SYSTEM'S WEAKENING ACCELERATES. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL FROM WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
最后于 2024-01-26 21:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 261903 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/26 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 84.4 E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 60H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75 120H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 30.8 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 130 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=4.5+ CI=5.5 SINCE 12Z, THE ANGGREK EYE PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY FADED, ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP WHILE MIGRATING INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THESE CONTRADICTORY SIGNS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT WEAKENING. UNFORTUNATELY, IN THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE PASSES, IT IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE THE EVOLUTION OF THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE. THE RCM-2 SAR AT 1240Z SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF THE ORDER OF 111 KT (AVERAGED OVER ONE MINUTE), I.E. AN INTENSITY OF THE ORDER OF 95KT (AVERAGED OVER 10 MINUTES). THE LAST EYE ANALYSES OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS GAVE A DT OF 4.5+ (AVERAGED OVER 3H). THE DT IS IN LINE WITH THE ADJUSTED MET. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM THUS REMAINS AT 90KT, CONFIRMED BY THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AVAILABLE. NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS STEERED BY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE RIDGE SWELLS SLIGHTLY WITHIN 24 HOURS, THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN OUT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARDS, PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARD OR EVEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY, WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARDS. WITH THE DIRECTING FLOW WELL DEFINED, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY GOOD IN DIRECTION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SPEED AT WHICH IT WILL MOVE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK BENEFITS FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, KEEPING IT AT THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. IN FACT, THE SHEAR STRESS AND ATTEMPTED INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR ARE COUNTERBALANCED BY THE SYSTEM'S DISPLACEMENT. IT SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN AT THIS STAGE, CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY UNTIL SUNDAY. THEN, ON MONDAY, IT WILL RETURN TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE DUE TO A SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR STRESS, BUT ALSO TO INCREASINGLY COOL SEA SURFACE WATERS. THEREAFTER, THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND THE SYSTEM'S WEAKENING ACCELERATES. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL FROM WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
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WTXS32 PGTW 262100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 024 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 84.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 84.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 19.1S 82.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.6S 79.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.4S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 21.6S 73.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 25.3S 70.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 28.7S 71.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 29.6S 74.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 262100Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 83.7E. 26JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 954 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261800Z IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 262100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.2S 84.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 954 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 44 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AFTER PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS AT 261200Z (BASED ON A 261240Z RCM-2 SAR PASS), TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR RGB IMAGERY. HOWEVER, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS A QUICKLY RE-DEVELOPING EYE WITH OUTFLOW BEGINNING TO EXPAND AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS BEEN EXTREMELY SPARSE, HOWEVER A 261604Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT 70 NM DIAMETER CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A BREAK IN THE EYEWALL OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY AND THE MHS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 95 KTS AT 261605Z CIMSS ADT: 107 KTS AT 261500Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 48, TC 06S WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCED A BRIEF WEAKENING TREND, IT IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY TO 120 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE UPPER- LEVELS. AFTER TAU 72, TC 06S WILL RECURVE AND INTERACT WITH STRONG SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WITH HIGH VWS (25 TO 55 KNOTS) AND COOL SST (23 TO 25 C), WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RAPID WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 45 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH GALWEM AND UKMET INDICATING MUCH FASTER TRACK SPEEDS WHILE GFS, NAVGEM AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS. THE 260600Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND THE 261200Z GFS ENSEMBLE SHOW A SIMILAR ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW), JUST BELOW HAFS-A, WHICH PEAKS AT 130 KNOTS AT TAU 36. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-27 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 270115 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/4/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/27 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 83.6 E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/S 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 60H: 2024/01/29 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 72H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 30.6 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 360 SW: 280 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75 120H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 32.1 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 130 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=5.0+ CI=5.5- BETWEEN 2000UTC AND 2300UTC, THE CLOUD PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECAME ORGANIZED AROUND A CLEARLY VISIBLE EYE ON IR SATELLITE IMAGES, SHOWING A SLIGHT GAIN IN ORGANIZATION. OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS, THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS DISAPPEARED BENEATH THE MAIN CONVECTION, ADOPTING A CURVED BAND PATTERN. THE 1939Z AMSR-2 PASS SHOWS A SOLID INTERNAL STRUCTURE, WITH AN ERODED EYEWALL IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ON THE OTHER HAND, A SECONDARY CONVECTIVE BAND APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, PERHAPS SUGGESTING THE START OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS POINTS A DT OF 5.0+, IN LINE WITH THE ADJUSTED MET AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE AMERICAN DATA. ANGGREK'S ANALYZED INTENSITY IS THEREFORE 85KT, TEMPORARILY DECLASSIFYING IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN BY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK WILL THUS EVOLVE IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. AS THE RIDGE SWELLS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN OUT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. FROM MONDAY, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARDS, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO DIP FURTHER SOUTH AT FIRST. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD START TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, UNDER THE ACTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE METEOR IS SET TO SINK FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WHICH ARE KEEPING IT AT A MATURE STAGE. SHEAR AND ATTEMPTED INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR ARE COUNTERBALANCED BY THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHWESTERLY MOVEMENT. IT SHOULD THEREFORE CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY UNTIL SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN A CONTEXT WHERE THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT WILL BE MUCH LOWER. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES, PARTICULARLY ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A TROUGH WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
最后于 2024-01-27 09:40:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：