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ABIO10 PGTW 111800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/111800Z-121800ZJAN2024// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST ) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 59.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 60.0E, APPROXIMATELY 458 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 59.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 60.0E, APPROXIMATELY 458 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENDING AND EXPANSION OF THE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 110930Z ASMR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE VERY WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST ) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6S 92.3E, APPROXIMATELY 466 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 7.6S 92.3E, 465NM NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. A 111204Z SSMIS COLOR37 NEAREST IMAGE LENDS A CONFIDENT LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE CIRCULATION EXISTS IN A DEVELOPING SEASONAL MONSOON TROF UNDER AN AREA OF DEEP MOSITURE AND IS BEING PROVIDED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY BY A STREAM OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES FLOWING OUT OF THE MIGRATORY ANTICYCLONES ALONG THE 30TH LATITUDE. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS REVEALS CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING PROBABLILITY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE MEDIUM RANGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE EXTIMATED AT 18-22 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN
ABIO10 PGTW 111800 COR MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN CORRECTED/111800Z-121800ZJAN2024// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 59.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 60.0E, APPROXIMATELY 458 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENDING AND EXPANSION OF THE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 110930Z ASMR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE VERY WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6S 92.3E, APPROXIMATELY 466 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. A 111204Z SSMIS COLOR37 NEAREST IMAGE LENDS A CONFIDENT LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE CIRCULATION EXISTS IN A DEVELOPING SEASONAL MONSOON TROF UNDER AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AND IS BEING PROVIDED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY BY A STREAM OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES FLOWING OUT OF THE MIGRATORY ANTICYCLONES ALONG THE 30TH LATITUDE. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS REVEALS CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING PROBABLILITY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE MEDIUM RANGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED INVEST NUMBERS. NNNN最后于 2024-01-12 18:00:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
ABIO10 PGTW 131230 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/131230Z-131800ZJAN2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130151ZJAN2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 13JAN24 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 55.8E, APPROXIMATELY 347 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 130300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 93.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 93.8E, APPROXIMATELY 184 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130739Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE CENTER, AND FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.// NNNN
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WTXS21 PGTW 141400 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS OF 10.8S 94.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 141330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 94.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 93.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 94.1E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141151Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY THAT IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 151400Z. // NNNN
ABIO10 PGTW 141430 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/141430Z-141800ZJAN2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141351ZJAN2024// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141352ZJAN2024// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 14JAN24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 53.3E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 141500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 93.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 94.1E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141151Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY THAT IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL BE QUASI- STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 141400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.5S 130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 102 NM EAST OF WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140941Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE CURRENT POSITION NEAR THE COAST AND CONFIRM A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POINT FAWCETT, TO THE NORTH, INDICATE 20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLIES WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS, HOWEVER, CORE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND, IT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TRANSITION OVER WATER. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OVER LAND ARE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT BUT SURFACE PRESSURE VALUES ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOW AT 997 MB. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 99S WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2)// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-14 21:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0729 UTC 15/01/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 04U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 9.5S Longitude: 92.9E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: west northwest (301 deg) Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h) Central Pressure: 1004 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1009 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 15/1200: 9.3S 93.1E: 035 (060): 035 (065): 999 +12: 15/1800: 9.2S 93.4E: 050 (095): 035 (065): 999 +18: 16/0000: 9.2S 93.6E: 065 (125): 040 (075): 996 +24: 16/0600: 9.2S 93.7E: 075 (140): 040 (075): 996 +36: 16/1800: 9.3S 94.1E: 080 (145): 045 (085): 993 +48: 17/0600: 9.9S 94.3E: 090 (165): 045 (085): 994 +60: 17/1800: 10.6S 94.3E: 125 (230): 050 (095): 991 +72: 18/0600: 11.5S 94.3E: 155 (285): 050 (095): 991 +96: 19/0600: 12.7S 94.2E: 200 (370): 045 (085): 993 +120: 20/0600: 12.8S 94.1E: 265 (490): 035 (065): 996 REMARKS: Tropical low 04U likely to develop into a tropical cyclone overnight or on Tuesday. Position estimated based on animated Vis imagery. Intensity estimated at 30 kn based on Dvorak. Dvorak analysis: DT=2.5 based on a curved band pattern with a wrap of 0.5. A D trend gives MET/PT=2.5. FT/CI=2.5. There are currently no objective aids available. Recent movement has been slow, though generally to the north, under the limited influence of a ridge to the northwest. SSTs are high (>28 degrees C) and remain so along the track. There has been moderate easterly shear over 04U, however there is a strong shear gradient and recently 04U has likely been under lower shear as vertical alignment has improved. There is some dry air to the south however not currently a significant influence on development. The CIMSS upper wind analysis indicates very good upper divergence. 04U is expected to reach tropical cyclone intensity tomorrow, though may occur earlier overnight. In the short term steering is light and 04U is expected to remain slow moving, with westerly monsoon flow assisting with slow eastward motion. A trough to the west approaches and 04U begins to move to the south from Wednesday. Intensification potential is limited by proximity to the shear gradient and by the potential for dry air to encroach by mid-week. In the longer term there is significant divergence in NWP, particularly from the weekend. The majority indicate a westwards motion as a ridge to the south strengths. However, some become slow moving while others take the system east. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1330 UTC.
Time (CCT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 1 pm January 15 tropical low 9.5S 92.9E 30 +6hr 7 pm January 15 tropical low 9.3S 93.1E 60 +12hr 1 am January 16 tropical low 9.2S 93.4E 95 +18hr 7 am January 16 1 9.2S 93.6E 125 +24hr 1 pm January 16 1 9.2S 93.7E 140 +36hr 1 am January 17 1 9.3S 94.1E 145 +48hr 1 pm January 17 1 9.9S 94.3E 165 +60hr 1 am January 18 2 10.6S 94.3E 230 +72hr 1 pm January 18 2 11.5S 94.3E 285 -
WTXS32 PGTW 150900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141352ZJAN2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 9.5S 93.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S 93.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 9.2S 94.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 9.2S 94.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 9.4S 94.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 10.0S 95.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 11.3S 95.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 12.2S 95.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 12.8S 94.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 9.4S 93.8E. 15JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251 NM NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 141400).// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 150900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 9.5S 93.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 251 NM NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FLARING CORE CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. A 150727Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REFLECTS THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND REVEALS A COMPACT CORE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE WESTERN QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE AMSR2 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH WRAPS INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR2 IMAGERY. DESPITE SOME WEAK PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ROBUST WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE KNES, PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S IS TRACKING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK NER. AS TC 06S BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED OVER THE NEXT DAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET. CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 65 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THROUGH TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-35 KNOTS) AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 180 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. IN GENERAL, THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 WITH TWO DISCRETE CLUSTERS. GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND SHOW A SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE (ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, GALWEM, UKMET AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN) IS SHOWING A MORE REALISTIC SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. NAVGEM IS A MAJOR OUTLIER INDICATING AN UNREALISTIC FAST TRACK INTO THE STR SO IS DISCOUNTED. BOTH THE 150000Z ECMWF (EPS) AND GFS (GEFS) ENSEMBLES INDICATE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WITH A BIFURCATION IN THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1339 UTC 15/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone 04U Identifier: 04U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 9.5S Longitude: 93.5E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: north (000 deg) Speed of Movement: 2 knots (3 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 1000 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1007 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 15/1800: 9.4S 93.5E: 045 (080): 040 (075): 995 +12: 16/0000: 9.3S 93.6E: 055 (105): 045 (085): 992 +18: 16/0600: 9.2S 93.7E: 065 (120): 045 (085): 992 +24: 16/1200: 9.2S 93.9E: 070 (130): 045 (085): 992 +36: 17/0000: 9.5S 94.1E: 070 (130): 050 (095): 989 +48: 17/1200: 10.1S 94.3E: 090 (165): 055 (100): 986 +60: 18/0000: 10.9S 94.3E: 115 (215): 060 (110): 983 +72: 18/1200: 11.7S 94.3E: 135 (245): 055 (100): 986 +96: 19/1200: 12.6S 94.4E: 170 (315): 050 (095): 988 +120: 20/1200: 12.5S 94.7E: 225 (415): 035 (065): 998 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone 04U has formed to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Position estimated based on animated IR imagery and a 0735 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass. Intensity estimated at 35 kn based on structure and analysed winds on the AMSR2 pass, and consistent with Dvorak. Dvorak analysis: No suitable DT can be assigned on current cloud patterns. A D trend gives MET/PT=3.0. FT/CI=3.0. Current objective aids: ADT 37 kn, AiDT 31 kn, DPRINT 43 kn (all one-minute means). Recent movement has been slow, though generally to the north, under the limited influence of a ridge to the northwest. SSTs are high (>28 degrees C) and remain so along the track. Shear over the system is low, analysed at around 5 knots at 1200 UTC. There is some dry air to the south however not currently a significant influence on development. The CIMSS upper wind analysis indicates very good upper divergence. In the short term steering is light and 04U is expected to remain slow moving, with westerly monsoon flow assisting with slow eastward motion. A trough to the west approaches and 04U begins to move to the south from Wednesday. 04U is expected to develop further over the next 2 days as conditions remain generally favourable. However, intensification potential may be limited by proximity to the shear gradient and by the potential for dry air to encroach, particularly by later week. Being a small system, 04U is likely to react quickly to changes in the environment. In the longer term there is significant divergence in NWP, particularly from the weekend. Some guidance indicates a westwards motion as a ridge to the south strengths. However, if 04U weakens it will more likely move towards the east driven by a monsoonal westerly flow. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1930 UTC.
Time (CCT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 7 pm January 15 1 9.5S 93.5E 55 +6hr 1 am January 16 1 9.4S 93.5E 80 +12hr 7 am January 16 1 9.3S 93.6E 105 +18hr 1 pm January 16 1 9.2S 93.7E 120 +24hr 7 pm January 16 1 9.2S 93.9E 130 +36hr 7 am January 17 2 9.5S 94.1E 130 +48hr 7 pm January 17 2 10.1S 94.3E 165 +60hr 7 am January 18 2 10.9S 94.3E 215 +72hr 7 pm January 18 2 11.7S 94.3E 245 最后于 2024-01-15 21:45:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1903 UTC 15/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 9.5S Longitude: 93.7E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: east (090 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 995 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1007 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 16/0000: 9.4S 93.8E: 035 (065): 040 (075): 992 +12: 16/0600: 9.3S 93.9E: 050 (090): 045 (085): 992 +18: 16/1200: 9.3S 94.0E: 060 (110): 045 (085): 992 +24: 16/1800: 9.3S 94.1E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 989 +36: 17/0600: 9.7S 94.3E: 065 (125): 055 (100): 986 +48: 17/1800: 10.5S 94.4E: 090 (165): 060 (110): 983 +60: 18/0600: 11.4S 94.3E: 110 (210): 060 (110): 983 +72: 18/1800: 12.0S 94.3E: 130 (240): 055 (100): 986 +96: 19/1800: 12.6S 94.5E: 170 (315): 045 (085): 992 +120: 20/1800: 12.5S 94.8E: 205 (380): 035 (065): 998 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek (04U) lies to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Position estimated based on animated IR imagery and recent passes from ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C. Intensity estimated at 40 kn based on ASCAT-B pass at 1541 UTC. Dvorak analysis: DT 3.0 based on shear pattern with the centre less than 0.5 degrees of deep convection. A D trend gives MET of 3.5, with PAT adjusted to 3.0. FT/CI=3.0. Current objective aids: ADT 34 kn, AiDT 33 kn, DPRINT 51 kn, SATCON 50 kn (all one-minute means). Recent movement has been slow towards the east. SSTs are high (>28 degrees C) and remain so along the track. Shear over the system is low, analysed easterly at around 5-10 knots at 1500 UTC, however the displacement of convection to the west of the centre indicates that the system is affected by this shear. There is some dry air to the south however not currently a significant influence on development. The CIMSS upper wind analysis indicates very good upper divergence. In the short term steering is light and Anggrek is expected to remain slow moving, with westerly monsoon flow perhaps assisting with slow eastward motion. A trough to the west approaches and Anggrek begins to move to the south from Wednesday. Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is expected to develop further over the next 2 days as conditions remain generally favourable. However, intensification potential may be limited by proximity to the shear gradient and by the potential for dry air to encroach, particularly by later week. Being a small system, Anggrek is likely to react quickly to changes in the environment. In the longer term there is significant divergence in NWP, particularly from the weekend. Some guidance indicates a westwards motion as a ridge to the south strengths. However, if Anggrek weakens it will more likely move towards the east driven by a monsoonal westerly flow. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0130 UTC.
Time (CCT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 1 am January 16 1 9.5S 93.7E 35 +6hr 7 am January 16 1 9.4S 93.8E 65 +12hr 1 pm January 16 1 9.3S 93.9E 90 +18hr 7 pm January 16 1 9.3S 94.0E 110 +24hr 1 am January 17 2 9.3S 94.1E 120 +36hr 1 pm January 17 2 9.7S 94.3E 125 +48hr 1 am January 18 2 10.5S 94.4E 165 +60hr 1 pm January 18 2 11.4S 94.3E 210 +72hr 1 am January 19 2 12.0S 94.3E 240 -
WTXS32 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 9.5S 93.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S 93.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 9.5S 94.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 9.6S 94.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 10.1S 94.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 10.9S 95.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 11.8S 95.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 12.9S 94.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 13.4S 94.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 9.5S 94.0E. 15JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 9.5S 93.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 240 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (SIX) CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AS IT VERY SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS AND FORMATIVE SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW ALOFT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH EVIDENCE OF CIRRUS FILAMENTS DRIFTING BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD ON ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) THROUGH TAU 96, WITH SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C) OVER THE SAME INTERVAL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 151544Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETER IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE, AS WELL AS THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 151700Z CIMSS DPRINT: 51 KTS AT 151800Z CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 151730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S HAS BEGUN AN EASTWARD JAUNT AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD AT VERY SLOW TRACK SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS DUE TO A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH RIDGING PREVALENT TO BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH. NEAR TAU 24, THE TC IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, AND EVENTUALLY COME TO A SOUTHWARD TRACK BY TAU 48. THE INTERVAL BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 72 OFFERS THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TC INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR, WITH INTENSITY PEAKING NEAR 65KTS AROUND TAU 60. FOLLOWING THE INTENSITY PEAK (TAU 72), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TO MODERATE LEVELS (20-25KTS) THROUGH TAU 120. AT TAU 72, AND AS ALLUDED TO IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION, A BIFURCATION BECOMES EVIDENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. PRIMARILY, THIS IS DUE TO HOW DIFFERENT MODELS ARE RESOLVING THE WEAK STR TO THE SOUTH. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS, SUCH AS ECMWF, SUGGEST THE RIDGE PROPAGATES EASTWARD, ALLOWING TC 06S TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, RESULTING IN A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. OTHERS, LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION, KEEP THE STR QUASISTATIONARY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TC 06S, RESULTING IN A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 06S (SIX) WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY AND SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS. OVER THIS PERIOD, THE GFS AND HAFS-A SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK SPEED, BRINGING THE LLCC AS FAR EAST AS 95E. AT THIS POINT (TAU 24), MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WITH SLOWLY TURN TO A SOUTHEASTWARD COURSE (TAU 24 TO TAU 36) FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWARD TRACK (TAU 48 TO TAU 27). BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 72 IS WHEN INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INTENSIFICATION WILL STEADILY OCCUR, PEAKING NEAR TAU 60 AT 65KTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD (30 KTS) IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE AT TAU 60, LEAVING MODERATE (MEDIUM) UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE AND CREATE A BIFURCATION. THE GFS AND UKMET DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE TRACK WITH STEER SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD FORWARD OF TAU 72, WHILE THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE JTWC CONCENSUS STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD. DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY PRESENTED, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE LATER INTERVAL IS LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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