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全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向西偏南方向移动
时 间：27日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬18.7度、东经83.6度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：14级（45米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：965百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约2740公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”强度维持不变
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度变化不大。
图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月27日08时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 270727 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/4/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/27 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 82.1 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 120 120H: 2024/02/01 06 UTC: 38.8 S / 94.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 445 SE: 350 SW: 455 NW: 565 34 KT NE: 285 SE: 0 SW: 305 NW: 305 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=5.0+ CI=5.5- CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND ANGGREK'S CORE HAS CONTINUED TO FLUCTUATE IN RECENT HOURS. AS SEEN IN THE LATEST LATE-NIGHT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES, AN EYE PATTERN REAPPEARED LATELY IN CLASSICAL IMAGERY BUT DID NOT APPEAR TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED YET. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 4.5 TO 6.0, WITH A 3H AVERAGE CLOSE TO 5.0+. THIS ESTIMATE AGREES WITH A CALIBRATED ASCAT ESTIMATE ( 0403Z METOP B) GIVING 85KT MAXIMUM WINDS. THE 06Z ANALYSIS IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED AT TROPICAL CYCLONE 85KT. NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE FLOWS, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK WILL THUS EVOLVE IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARDS, LEADING THE SYSTEM TO BEND SOUTHWARDS. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD INITIATE A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TURN, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. LATER NEXT WEEK, THE METEOR SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ( UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE, DECREASING MID- TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC POTENTIAL). ANGGREK SHOULD THEREFORE CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL NEXT NIGHT, AND ONCE AGAIN REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, AN EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD DEVELOP WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY IN THE SAME DIRECTION, LIMITING DRY ADVECTION INTO ANGGREK'S CORE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THEREFORE IS MORE UNCERTAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES A SLOW WEAKENING FROM TOMORROW. HOWEVER, THIS WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEAN POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DECLINES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
最后于 2024-01-27 16:20:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS32 PGTW 270900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 025// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 025 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 18.9S 82.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 82.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.8S 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.6S 76.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 22.0S 73.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 23.8S 71.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 26.6S 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 31.6S 79.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 36.1S 90.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 81.4E. 27JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 899 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270600Z IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 270900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 025// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.9S 82.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 899 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 48 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT, SYMMETRICAL, AND DENSE SYSTEM WITH A RECENTLY CLOUD-COVERED PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 270402Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102KTS) WHICH IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE THAN THE AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY OF THIS MIDGET SYSTEM. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE SUSTAINED 12-HR CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, WARM SST, AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 270600Z CIMSS AIDT: 84 KTS AT 270600Z CIMSS DPRINT: 63 KTS AT 270600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ANGGREK WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 48, IT WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, RECURVE AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 110KTS BY TAU 48, AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES, THEN COOLING SST WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 96, TC 08S WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AND BY TAU 120, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 114NM BY TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SPREAD REMAINS RELATIVELY TIGHT AT 178NM BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES OF ETT, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE ALSO HIGH AND MEDIUM, RESPECTIVELY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-27 16:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTIO30 FMEE 271254 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/27 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 80.8 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/29 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 31.7 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 425 SW: 220 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 175 120H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 39.6 S / 97.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 555 SE: 555 SW: 390 NW: 400 34 KT NE: 345 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 240 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=5.5- OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, ANGGREK HAS ADOPTED A LASTING EYE PATTERN, WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES RANGING FROM 4.5 TO 6. THE LAST 3 H AVERAGE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 90KT. MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRM THE FORMATION OF A WELL-DEFINED EYE, BUT SUFFERING FROM A SLIGHT WESTWARD TILT, CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR. THE 0751Z AMSR2 PASS GIVES MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 100KT. OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (CIMSS ADT AND DMINT) REMAIN IN THE 80-85KT 10MIN RANGE. ANGGREK'S INTENSITY IS THEREFORE RAISED TO 90KT. ANGGREK REMAINS A SMALL-SIZED SYSTEM. NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE FLOWS, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK WILL THUS EVOLVE RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARDS, LEADING THE SYSTEM TO BEND SOUTHWARDS. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD INITIATE A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TURN, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. LATER NEXT WEEK, THE METEOR SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS WIDELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE SPREAD. ANGGREK IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ( UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE, RATHER WEAK SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC POTENTIAL). ANGGREK COULD THEREFORE CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE FOLLOWING HOURS. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, AN EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD DEVELOP WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY IN THE SAME DIRECTION, LIMITING DRY ADVECTION INTO ANGGREK'S CORE. THE SYSTEM SMALL SIZE MAY FAVOR SUDDEN INTENSITY CHANGES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THEREFORE IS MORE UNCERTAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES A SLOW WEAKENING FROM TOMORROW. HOWEVER, THIS WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEAN POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DECLINES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
最后于 2024-01-27 21:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 271819 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/27 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 79.6 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/S 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 60H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 32.7 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 360 SE: 455 SW: 315 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 185 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=4.5+ CI=5.5- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ANGGREK, STILL A SMALL, COMPACT SYSTEM, HAS MAINTAINED ITS EYE PATTERN, BUT WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TEMPORARILY WARMED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BEFORE COOLING AGAIN JUST BEFORE 18Z. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES OSCILLATE BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.5 WITH AN AVERAGE T OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS OF 4.5+. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW SATELLITE DATA AND IN LINE WITH AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES, ANGGREK IS MAINTAINED AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF 90KT. NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE CYCLONE, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS EVOLVING RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, INITIALLY PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE METEOR SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE DISPERSION. ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (WEST COAST ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, FAIRLY LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL). IT COULD THEREFORE INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, AN EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY IN THIS DIRECTION, LIMITING DRY ADVECTION INTO THE HEART OF ANGGREK. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE FINE-GRAINED INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT THE SYSTEM IS NOW MATURE. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES A SLOW WEAKENING FROM TOMORROW ONWARDS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THIS WEAKENING SHOULD ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEAN POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON TUESDAY/ WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
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WTXS32 PGTW 272100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 026// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 79.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 79.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.4S 76.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 21.7S 73.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 23.7S 71.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 26.2S 71.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 29.9S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 24 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 33.7S 86.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 78.6E. 27JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 846 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271800Z IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 272100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 026// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.5S 79.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 846 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 46 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271630Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 10-13 NM OBLONG EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH SOME PRESSURE EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, WHICH IS CAUSING A SHORT-LIVED DEFORMATION IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CIMSS ADT AND DPRINT ESTIMATES OF 97 KNOTS ALSO SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 271800Z CIMSS DPRINT: 97 KTS AT 271800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH. TC 06S IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY TO 110 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE JET TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH RAPID WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 60, TC 06S WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, WITH INCREASING VWS (30-40 KNOTS) AND COOLER SSTS (24-25 C). AFTER TAU 84, TC 06S WILL COMPLETE ETT, GAINING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMING EMBEDDED NEAR THE POLAR FRONT JET. VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40- 60 KNOTS WITH COLD SST (22 C) VALUES. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALWEM (AFUM) AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN (EEMN), NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 70 NM AT TAU 72 AND 85 NM AT TAU 96. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-28 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 280018 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/28 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 77.9 E (TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/S 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/29 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 60H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 72H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SW: 250 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 140 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 33.4 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 400 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 380 34 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 230 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=4.5+ CI=5.5- OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE ANGGREK EYE PATTERN HAS FLUCTUATED BUT REMAINED STABLE. CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY INCREASED, HOWEVER, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT COMPARED WITH 18Z. MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM GCOM 2024Z AND SSMIS F18 2215Z ALSO SHOW COMPACT DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES OSCILLATE BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5 WITH AN AVERAGE T OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS OF 4.5+. IN LINE WITH THE SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES AVAILABLE, ANGGREK IS MAINTAINED AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF 90KT. NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE CYCLONE, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS EVOLVING RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, INITIALLY PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE METEOR SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE DISPERSION. ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (WEST COAST ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, FAIRLY LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL). IT COULD THEREFORE INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY IN THIS DIRECTION, LIMITING DRY ADVECTION INTO THE HEART OF ANGGREK. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE FINE-GRAINED INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT THE SYSTEM IS STILL MATURE. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES A SLOW WEAKENING FROM TOMORROW ONWARDS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THIS WEAKENING SHOULD ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEAN POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON TUESDAY/ WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
最后于 2024-01-28 09:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTIO30 FMEE 280622 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/28 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 76.5 E (TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 26.5 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 60H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 72H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 220 SW: 295 NW: 260 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=5.0 CI=5.5- OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND ANGGREK'S EYE HAS REMAINED INTENSE, WHILE BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL THAN LAST NIGHT AND STRENGTHENING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS RISE TO 5.0 BUT MAY UNDERESTIMATE ACTUAL INTENSITY DUE TO THE EYE'S SMALL SIZE. ASCAT PASSES AT 0343Z AND 0436Z ENABLE US TO UPDATE WIND EXTENSIONS, SHOWING A SLIGHT ASYMMETRY IN THE WIND STRUCTURE WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, MEASURED UP TO 67KT, WHICH MATCHES WELL AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 90KT GIVEN THE MEASUREMENT'S SATURATION. NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE CYCLONE, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS MOVING RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERWARD DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, INITIALLY STEERING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE DISPERSION. ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (UPPER DIVERGENCE ON ITS WESTERN FLANK, FAIRLY LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL). IT COULD THEREFORE INTENSIFY UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP, BUT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY IN THE SAME DIRECTION, EFFECTS SHOULD BE LIMITED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE PRECISE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD STILL REMAIN MATURE. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES SLOW WEAKENING FROM TOMORROW ONWARDS. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEANIC POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=
最后于 2024-01-28 14:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：