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WTIO30 FMEE 271819 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/27 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 79.6 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/S 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 60H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 32.7 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 360 SE: 455 SW: 315 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 185 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=4.5+ CI=5.5- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ANGGREK, STILL A SMALL, COMPACT SYSTEM, HAS MAINTAINED ITS EYE PATTERN, BUT WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TEMPORARILY WARMED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BEFORE COOLING AGAIN JUST BEFORE 18Z. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES OSCILLATE BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.5 WITH AN AVERAGE T OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS OF 4.5+. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW SATELLITE DATA AND IN LINE WITH AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES, ANGGREK IS MAINTAINED AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF 90KT. NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE CYCLONE, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS EVOLVING RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, INITIALLY PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE METEOR SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE DISPERSION. ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (WEST COAST ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, FAIRLY LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL). IT COULD THEREFORE INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, AN EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY IN THIS DIRECTION, LIMITING DRY ADVECTION INTO THE HEART OF ANGGREK. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE FINE-GRAINED INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT THE SYSTEM IS NOW MATURE. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES A SLOW WEAKENING FROM TOMORROW ONWARDS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THIS WEAKENING SHOULD ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEAN POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON TUESDAY/ WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
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WTXS32 PGTW 272100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 026// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 79.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 79.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.4S 76.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 21.7S 73.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 23.7S 71.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 26.2S 71.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 29.9S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 24 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 33.7S 86.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 78.6E. 27JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 846 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271800Z IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 272100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 026// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.5S 79.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 846 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 46 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271630Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 10-13 NM OBLONG EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH SOME PRESSURE EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, WHICH IS CAUSING A SHORT-LIVED DEFORMATION IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CIMSS ADT AND DPRINT ESTIMATES OF 97 KNOTS ALSO SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 271800Z CIMSS DPRINT: 97 KTS AT 271800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH. TC 06S IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY TO 110 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE JET TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH RAPID WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 60, TC 06S WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, WITH INCREASING VWS (30-40 KNOTS) AND COOLER SSTS (24-25 C). AFTER TAU 84, TC 06S WILL COMPLETE ETT, GAINING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMING EMBEDDED NEAR THE POLAR FRONT JET. VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40- 60 KNOTS WITH COLD SST (22 C) VALUES. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALWEM (AFUM) AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN (EEMN), NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 70 NM AT TAU 72 AND 85 NM AT TAU 96. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-28 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 280018 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/28 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 77.9 E (TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/S 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/29 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 60H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 72H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SW: 250 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 140 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 33.4 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 400 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 380 34 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 230 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=4.5+ CI=5.5- OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE ANGGREK EYE PATTERN HAS FLUCTUATED BUT REMAINED STABLE. CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY INCREASED, HOWEVER, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT COMPARED WITH 18Z. MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM GCOM 2024Z AND SSMIS F18 2215Z ALSO SHOW COMPACT DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES OSCILLATE BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5 WITH AN AVERAGE T OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS OF 4.5+. IN LINE WITH THE SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES AVAILABLE, ANGGREK IS MAINTAINED AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF 90KT. NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE CYCLONE, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS EVOLVING RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, INITIALLY PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE METEOR SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE DISPERSION. ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (WEST COAST ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, FAIRLY LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL). IT COULD THEREFORE INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY IN THIS DIRECTION, LIMITING DRY ADVECTION INTO THE HEART OF ANGGREK. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE FINE-GRAINED INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT THE SYSTEM IS STILL MATURE. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES A SLOW WEAKENING FROM TOMORROW ONWARDS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THIS WEAKENING SHOULD ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEAN POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON TUESDAY/ WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
最后于 2024-01-28 09:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 280622 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/28 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 76.5 E (TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 26.5 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 60H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 72H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 220 SW: 295 NW: 260 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=5.0 CI=5.5- OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND ANGGREK'S EYE HAS REMAINED INTENSE, WHILE BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL THAN LAST NIGHT AND STRENGTHENING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS RISE TO 5.0 BUT MAY UNDERESTIMATE ACTUAL INTENSITY DUE TO THE EYE'S SMALL SIZE. ASCAT PASSES AT 0343Z AND 0436Z ENABLE US TO UPDATE WIND EXTENSIONS, SHOWING A SLIGHT ASYMMETRY IN THE WIND STRUCTURE WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, MEASURED UP TO 67KT, WHICH MATCHES WELL AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 90KT GIVEN THE MEASUREMENT'S SATURATION. NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE CYCLONE, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS MOVING RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERWARD DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, INITIALLY STEERING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE DISPERSION. ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (UPPER DIVERGENCE ON ITS WESTERN FLANK, FAIRLY LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL). IT COULD THEREFORE INTENSIFY UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP, BUT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY IN THE SAME DIRECTION, EFFECTS SHOULD BE LIMITED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE PRECISE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD STILL REMAIN MATURE. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES SLOW WEAKENING FROM TOMORROW ONWARDS. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEANIC POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=
最后于 2024-01-28 14:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS32 PGTW 280900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 027// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 76.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 76.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 21.6S 73.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 23.9S 71.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 26.4S 71.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 28.5S 72.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 32.3S 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 75.7E. 28JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1075 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280600Z IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 280900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 027// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.3S 76.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1075 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 14 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 15-NM PINHOLE EYE THAT HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE AND BECOME MORE ASYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE 280344Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90KTS) WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A SLEW OF AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE SLIGHT 12-HR CONVECTIVE DEGRADATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW-MODERATE VWS, WARM SST, AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 92 KTS AT 280500Z CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 280530Z CIMSS AIDT: 89 KTS AT 280530Z CIMSS DPRINT: 81 KTS AT 280600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ANGGREK WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, IT WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, RECURVE AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY FUEL A SMALL WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 24 WITH AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, THEN COOLING SST WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 48, TC 08S WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AND BY TAU 72, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 168NM BY TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECASTS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE INTENSIFICATION BROUGHT ON BY THE INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND THE WEAKENING PHASE ASSOCIATED WITH ETT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-28 15:45:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向西偏南方向移动
时 间：28日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬20.3度、东经76.5度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：14级（45米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：960百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约1980公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”强度维持不变
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时25-30公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度变化不大。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月28日14时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 281218 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/28 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 74.8 E (TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 17 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/29 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 29.6 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 215 SW: 315 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 72H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 325 SE: 240 SW: 295 NW: 325 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 195 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 43.2 S / 101.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 655 SE: 400 SW: 260 NW: 490 34 KT NE: 350 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 305 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 95 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=5.5+ OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND ANGGREK'S EYE HAS INTENSIFIED, TEMPORARILY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE EYEWALL. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS RISEN TO BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.0. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A CONTRACTION OF THE EYEWALL. ANGGREK'S CORE IS INDEED VERY COMPACT, WITH A RMW ESTIMATED NEAR 8MN. SOME PERIPHERAL BANDING SEEMS TO BE BUILDING UP PARTIALLY AROUND THE INNER CORE, WHICH COULD BE A SIGN OF A POSSIBLE FUTURE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 95KT IS MAINLY BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AND ADT, BUT MIGHT STILL BE SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATED DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S SMALL SIZE. NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE CYCLONE, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS MOVING RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERWARD DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, INITIALLY STEERING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE DISPERSION. ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL). IT COULD THEREFORE KEEP INTENSIFYING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP, BUT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY IN THE SAME DIRECTION, EFFECTS SHOULD BE LIMITED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. MOREOVER, AN ERC CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES SLOW WEAKENING FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. THIS WEAKENING TREND SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEANIC POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DECREASES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT VERY ACTIVE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES SHOULD MAINTAIN IT ABOVE STORM FORCE INTENSITY WHILE IT TRACKS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=
最后于 2024-01-28 21:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 281843 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/28 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 73.3 E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 220 SW: 270 NW: 250 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55 72H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 33.5 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 380 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 325 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 205 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/01 18 UTC: 45.6 S / 105.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 730 SE: 565 SW: 305 NW: 565 34 KT NE: 390 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 350 48 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 100 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=6.0 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND ANGGREK'S EYE HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL AND THE EYE IS STILL WELL DEFINED ON THE IR SATELLITE PICTURE. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS RISEN TO 6.0. THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE OF 13H18 UTC HAS ENABLED US TO DETERMINE A MAXIMUM WIND RADIUS OF 8 MN. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 100KT IS MAINLY BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SOME SATCON MEMBERS. NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE CYCLONE, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS MOVING RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERWARD DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, INITIALLY STEERING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE DISPERSION. ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL). IT COULD THEREFORE KEEP INTENSIFYING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP, BUT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY IN THE SAME DIRECTION, EFFECTS SHOULD BE LIMITED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. MOREOVER, AN EYE REPLACEMENT CYCLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES SLOW WEAKENING FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. THIS WEAKENING TREND SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEANIC POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DECREASES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT BAROCLINIC PROCESSES SHOULD MAINTAIN IT ABOVE STORM FORCE INTENSITY WHILE IT TRACKS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=
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WTXS32 PGTW 282100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 028// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 21.7S 73.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 73.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 23.7S 71.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 26.2S 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 28.6S 72.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 30.4S 75.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 34.9S 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 72.7E. 28JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 877 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281800Z IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND 292100Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 282100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 028// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.7S 73.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 877 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 48 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A CLEAR, SYMMETRIC 15 NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS UNOBSTRUCTED RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT INDICATING A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE. THE INITIAL WIND RADII VALUES ARE BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF RECENT ASCAT DATA WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 113 KTS AT 281730Z CIMSS ADT: 109 KTS AT 281830Z CIMSS AIDT: 108 KTS AT 281830Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH. TC 06S IS FORECASTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AND START TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BOTH THE SMALL EYE AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ARE HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL, WHICH COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 48 WITH RAPID WEAKENING DUE TO VERY HIGH (50 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER (23-24 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 72, TC 06S WILL COMPLETE ETT AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES UNDER THE POLAR FRONT JET. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE A FEW ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HAVING THE SYSTEM CURVE TO THE NORTHEAST, THE LARGE MAJORITY OF ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-29 04:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 290044 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/29 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6 S / 72.1 E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 16 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/29 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 27.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 155 SW: 220 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 32.7 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 315 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45 72H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 37.8 S / 93.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 390 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 360 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 220 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 75 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=5.5 CI=6.0 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND ANGGREK'S EYE HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRICAL AND THE EYE IS LESS CLEARLY DEFINED ON THE IR SATELLITE PICTURE. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS DECREASED TO 5.5. INDEED, THE IR PICTURE SHOWED SOME KIND OF CONCENTRIC RINGS THAT MIGHT SUGGEST THE BEGINNING OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT CLEARLY VISIBLE ON THE 2204Z GPM MICROWAVE PICTURE. BY INERTIA THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 100KT, IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE KNES SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE CYCLONE, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS MOVING RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL SOUTH-WESTERWARD DIRECTION. THIS MONDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, INITIALLY STEERING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE SPREAD. ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL). IT PROBABLY HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND MAY HOLD THIS MORNING. AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS MONDAY, BUT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY IN THE SAME DIRECTION, EFFECTS SHOULD BE LIMITED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. MOREOVER, AN EYE REPLACEMENT CYCLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES SLOW WEAKENING FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. THIS WEAKENING TREND SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEANIC POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DECREASES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ON WEDNESDAY, BUT BAROCLINIC PROCESSES SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS WINDS ABOVE STORM FORCE WHILE IT TRACKS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE. ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=
最后于 2024-01-29 10:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：