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WTXS32 PGTW 280900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 027// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 76.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 76.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 21.6S 73.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 23.9S 71.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 26.4S 71.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 28.5S 72.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 32.3S 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 75.7E. 28JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1075 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280600Z IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 280900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 027// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.3S 76.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1075 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 14 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 15-NM PINHOLE EYE THAT HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE AND BECOME MORE ASYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE 280344Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90KTS) WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A SLEW OF AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE SLIGHT 12-HR CONVECTIVE DEGRADATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW-MODERATE VWS, WARM SST, AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 92 KTS AT 280500Z CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 280530Z CIMSS AIDT: 89 KTS AT 280530Z CIMSS DPRINT: 81 KTS AT 280600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ANGGREK WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, IT WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, RECURVE AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY FUEL A SMALL WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 24 WITH AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, THEN COOLING SST WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 48, TC 08S WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AND BY TAU 72, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 168NM BY TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECASTS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE INTENSIFICATION BROUGHT ON BY THE INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND THE WEAKENING PHASE ASSOCIATED WITH ETT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-28 15:45:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向西偏南方向移动
时 间：28日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬20.3度、东经76.5度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：14级（45米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：960百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约1980公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”强度维持不变
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时25-30公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度变化不大。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月28日14时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 281218 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/28 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 74.8 E (TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 17 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/29 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 29.6 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 215 SW: 315 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 72H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 325 SE: 240 SW: 295 NW: 325 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 195 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 43.2 S / 101.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 655 SE: 400 SW: 260 NW: 490 34 KT NE: 350 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 305 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 95 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=5.5+ OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND ANGGREK'S EYE HAS INTENSIFIED, TEMPORARILY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE EYEWALL. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS RISEN TO BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.0. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A CONTRACTION OF THE EYEWALL. ANGGREK'S CORE IS INDEED VERY COMPACT, WITH A RMW ESTIMATED NEAR 8MN. SOME PERIPHERAL BANDING SEEMS TO BE BUILDING UP PARTIALLY AROUND THE INNER CORE, WHICH COULD BE A SIGN OF A POSSIBLE FUTURE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 95KT IS MAINLY BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AND ADT, BUT MIGHT STILL BE SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATED DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S SMALL SIZE. NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE CYCLONE, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS MOVING RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERWARD DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, INITIALLY STEERING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE DISPERSION. ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL). IT COULD THEREFORE KEEP INTENSIFYING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP, BUT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY IN THE SAME DIRECTION, EFFECTS SHOULD BE LIMITED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. MOREOVER, AN ERC CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES SLOW WEAKENING FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. THIS WEAKENING TREND SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEANIC POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DECREASES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT VERY ACTIVE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES SHOULD MAINTAIN IT ABOVE STORM FORCE INTENSITY WHILE IT TRACKS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=
最后于 2024-01-28 21:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 281843 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/28 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 73.3 E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 220 SW: 270 NW: 250 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55 72H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 33.5 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 380 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 325 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 205 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/01 18 UTC: 45.6 S / 105.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 730 SE: 565 SW: 305 NW: 565 34 KT NE: 390 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 350 48 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 100 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=6.0 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND ANGGREK'S EYE HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL AND THE EYE IS STILL WELL DEFINED ON THE IR SATELLITE PICTURE. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS RISEN TO 6.0. THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE OF 13H18 UTC HAS ENABLED US TO DETERMINE A MAXIMUM WIND RADIUS OF 8 MN. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 100KT IS MAINLY BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SOME SATCON MEMBERS. NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE CYCLONE, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS MOVING RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERWARD DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, INITIALLY STEERING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE DISPERSION. ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL). IT COULD THEREFORE KEEP INTENSIFYING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP, BUT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY IN THE SAME DIRECTION, EFFECTS SHOULD BE LIMITED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. MOREOVER, AN EYE REPLACEMENT CYCLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES SLOW WEAKENING FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. THIS WEAKENING TREND SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEANIC POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DECREASES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT BAROCLINIC PROCESSES SHOULD MAINTAIN IT ABOVE STORM FORCE INTENSITY WHILE IT TRACKS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=
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WTXS32 PGTW 282100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 028// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 21.7S 73.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 73.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 23.7S 71.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 26.2S 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 28.6S 72.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 30.4S 75.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 34.9S 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 72.7E. 28JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 877 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281800Z IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND 292100Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 282100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 028// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.7S 73.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 877 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 48 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A CLEAR, SYMMETRIC 15 NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS UNOBSTRUCTED RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT INDICATING A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE. THE INITIAL WIND RADII VALUES ARE BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF RECENT ASCAT DATA WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 113 KTS AT 281730Z CIMSS ADT: 109 KTS AT 281830Z CIMSS AIDT: 108 KTS AT 281830Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH. TC 06S IS FORECASTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AND START TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BOTH THE SMALL EYE AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ARE HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL, WHICH COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 48 WITH RAPID WEAKENING DUE TO VERY HIGH (50 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER (23-24 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 72, TC 06S WILL COMPLETE ETT AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES UNDER THE POLAR FRONT JET. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE A FEW ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HAVING THE SYSTEM CURVE TO THE NORTHEAST, THE LARGE MAJORITY OF ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-29 04:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 290044 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/29 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6 S / 72.1 E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 16 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/29 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 27.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 155 SW: 220 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 32.7 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 315 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45 72H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 37.8 S / 93.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 390 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 360 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 220 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 75 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=5.5 CI=6.0 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND ANGGREK'S EYE HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRICAL AND THE EYE IS LESS CLEARLY DEFINED ON THE IR SATELLITE PICTURE. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS DECREASED TO 5.5. INDEED, THE IR PICTURE SHOWED SOME KIND OF CONCENTRIC RINGS THAT MIGHT SUGGEST THE BEGINNING OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT CLEARLY VISIBLE ON THE 2204Z GPM MICROWAVE PICTURE. BY INERTIA THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 100KT, IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE KNES SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE CYCLONE, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS MOVING RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL SOUTH-WESTERWARD DIRECTION. THIS MONDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, INITIALLY STEERING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE SPREAD. ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL). IT PROBABLY HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND MAY HOLD THIS MORNING. AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS MONDAY, BUT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY IN THE SAME DIRECTION, EFFECTS SHOULD BE LIMITED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. MOREOVER, AN EYE REPLACEMENT CYCLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES SLOW WEAKENING FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. THIS WEAKENING TREND SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEANIC POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DECREASES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ON WEDNESDAY, BUT BAROCLINIC PROCESSES SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS WINDS ABOVE STORM FORCE WHILE IT TRACKS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE. ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=
最后于 2024-01-29 10:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向南偏西方向移动
时 间：29日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬22.6度、东经72.1度
强度等级：强热带气旋
最大风力：16级（52米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级）
中心气压：950百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约1540公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”由14级加强到16级
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时25-30公里的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度将逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月29日08时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 290621 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/29 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 71.2 E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 28.6 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 315 SE: 195 SW: 270 NW: 250 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 405 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 350 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 205 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65 72H: 2024/02/01 06 UTC: 41.4 S / 97.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 650 SE: 425 SW: 260 NW: 380 34 KT NE: 345 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 220 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=5.5 OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND ANGGREK'S EYE HAS RESUMED IN SYMMETRY, BUT THE RING REMAINS SMALL, MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE TO INCREASE THE DVORAK ANALYSIS. THIS EYE ANALYSIS, CARRIED OUT OVER SHORT TIME STEPS, YIELDS A FAIRLY SATISFIED VALUE OF AROUND 5.5 OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS, THE SLIGHT OFFSET FROM THE CENTER OBSERVED IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING REMAINS. ANGGREK IS STILL AT THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, BUT ITS INTENSITY SEEMS TO HAVE PEAKED AND SHOULD THEREFORE STAGNATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK. ANGGREK IS BEING STEERED BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE FLOWS, GUIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS NOW POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS EVOLVING RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH THE EASTERLY SHIFT OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY, ANGGREK WILL INITIALLY MOVE FURTHER SOUTH. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD START TO TURN SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID-WEEK, THE METEOR SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, GUIDED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE SYSTEMS, WHICH SHOW LITTLE DISPERSION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SPEED AT THE END OF THE RANGE AS IT EVACUATES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL) OVER THE SHORT TERM. IT SHOULD HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY, AND COULD CONTINUE TO DO SO IN THE SHORT TERM. AN EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR STRESS IS SET TO INCREASE THIS MONDAY, BUT THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF ANGGREK IN THE SAME DIRECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RISK OF DRY ADVECTION IN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM, AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS STILL POSSIBLE, BUT THE DAMAGING ACTION OF WIND SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE THESE INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES A SLOW WEAKENING STARTING THIS MONDAY. THIS WEAKENING IS SET TO ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND THE OCEAN POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON WEDNESDAY, BUT BAROCLINIC PROCESSES COULD KEEP IT AT A VERY SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY UNTIL MID-LATITUDES, WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH. ANGGREK PRESENTS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
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WTXS32 PGTW 290900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 029// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 23.7S 71.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 71.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 26.2S 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 28.4S 72.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 30.2S 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 22 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 32.0S 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 71.1E. 29JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 798 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 290600Z IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z AND 300900Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 290900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 029// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 23.7S 71.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 798 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRICAL WITH INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. TRANSVERSE BANDING IS EVIDENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES TO INDICATE STRONG OUTFLOW AND IMMINENT HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ENHANCED EIR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST REMAINS DEEP BUT HAVE NOW BEGUN TO WARM WHILE MAINTAINING A DEFINED 10-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW, FIMP, AND FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102KTS) AND EQUIVALENT AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. THIS INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GRADUAL 12-HR CONVECTIVE DETERIORATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, WARM SST, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS FMEE: T5.5 - 102 KTS FIMP: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS ADT: 104 KTS AT 290500Z CIMSS AIDT: 103 KTS AT 290500Z CIMSS DPRINT: 105 KTS AT 290500Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ANGGREK WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, RECURVE AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE FROM THE WEST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL QUICKLY BECOME UNFAVORABLE WITH INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES, THEN THE ADDITION OF COOLING SST AND DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 36, TC 08S WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AND BY TAU 120, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 98NM BY TAU 48 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH ETT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-29 15:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”强度逐渐减弱
时 间：29日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬23.7度、东经71.2度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：14级（45米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：955百帕
参考位置：法属留尼旺偏东方向约1640公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”先由14级加强到16级，后减弱为14级
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向南偏西方向移动，并逐渐向东南方向偏转，强度将逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月29日14时00分）