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全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向南偏西方向移动
时 间：29日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬22.6度、东经72.1度
强度等级：强热带气旋
最大风力：16级（52米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级）
中心气压：950百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约1540公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”由14级加强到16级
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时25-30公里的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度将逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月29日08时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 290621 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/29 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 71.2 E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 28.6 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 315 SE: 195 SW: 270 NW: 250 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 405 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 350 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 205 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65 72H: 2024/02/01 06 UTC: 41.4 S / 97.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 650 SE: 425 SW: 260 NW: 380 34 KT NE: 345 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 220 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=5.5 OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND ANGGREK'S EYE HAS RESUMED IN SYMMETRY, BUT THE RING REMAINS SMALL, MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE TO INCREASE THE DVORAK ANALYSIS. THIS EYE ANALYSIS, CARRIED OUT OVER SHORT TIME STEPS, YIELDS A FAIRLY SATISFIED VALUE OF AROUND 5.5 OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS, THE SLIGHT OFFSET FROM THE CENTER OBSERVED IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING REMAINS. ANGGREK IS STILL AT THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, BUT ITS INTENSITY SEEMS TO HAVE PEAKED AND SHOULD THEREFORE STAGNATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK. ANGGREK IS BEING STEERED BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE FLOWS, GUIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS NOW POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS EVOLVING RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH THE EASTERLY SHIFT OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY, ANGGREK WILL INITIALLY MOVE FURTHER SOUTH. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD START TO TURN SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID-WEEK, THE METEOR SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, GUIDED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE SYSTEMS, WHICH SHOW LITTLE DISPERSION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SPEED AT THE END OF THE RANGE AS IT EVACUATES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL) OVER THE SHORT TERM. IT SHOULD HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY, AND COULD CONTINUE TO DO SO IN THE SHORT TERM. AN EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR STRESS IS SET TO INCREASE THIS MONDAY, BUT THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF ANGGREK IN THE SAME DIRECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RISK OF DRY ADVECTION IN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM, AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS STILL POSSIBLE, BUT THE DAMAGING ACTION OF WIND SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE THESE INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES A SLOW WEAKENING STARTING THIS MONDAY. THIS WEAKENING IS SET TO ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND THE OCEAN POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON WEDNESDAY, BUT BAROCLINIC PROCESSES COULD KEEP IT AT A VERY SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY UNTIL MID-LATITUDES, WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH. ANGGREK PRESENTS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
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WTXS32 PGTW 290900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 029// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 23.7S 71.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 71.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 26.2S 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 28.4S 72.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 30.2S 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 22 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 32.0S 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 71.1E. 29JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 798 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 290600Z IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z AND 300900Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 290900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 029// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 23.7S 71.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 798 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRICAL WITH INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. TRANSVERSE BANDING IS EVIDENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES TO INDICATE STRONG OUTFLOW AND IMMINENT HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ENHANCED EIR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST REMAINS DEEP BUT HAVE NOW BEGUN TO WARM WHILE MAINTAINING A DEFINED 10-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW, FIMP, AND FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102KTS) AND EQUIVALENT AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. THIS INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GRADUAL 12-HR CONVECTIVE DETERIORATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, WARM SST, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS FMEE: T5.5 - 102 KTS FIMP: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS ADT: 104 KTS AT 290500Z CIMSS AIDT: 103 KTS AT 290500Z CIMSS DPRINT: 105 KTS AT 290500Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ANGGREK WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, RECURVE AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE FROM THE WEST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL QUICKLY BECOME UNFAVORABLE WITH INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES, THEN THE ADDITION OF COOLING SST AND DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 36, TC 08S WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AND BY TAU 120, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 98NM BY TAU 48 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH ETT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-29 15:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”强度逐渐减弱
时 间：29日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬23.7度、东经71.2度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：14级（45米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：955百帕
参考位置：法属留尼旺偏东方向约1640公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”先由14级加强到16级，后减弱为14级
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向南偏西方向移动，并逐渐向东南方向偏转，强度将逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月29日14时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 291219 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/29 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 70.8 E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH 14 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 325 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55 60H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 36.5 S / 91.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 445 SE: 350 SW: 215 NW: 370 34 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 220 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 65 72H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 42.2 S / 99.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 650 SE: 405 SW: 240 NW: 435 34 KT NE: 335 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 260 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 85 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=5.5+ OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN IN THE EYE HAS CHANGED LITTLE. THE SYMMETRY HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSTANT, WITH ONE EYE APPEARING SHARPER. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE EYE ANALYSIS WITH SHORT TIME STEPS SHOWS A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST FEW MOMENTS WITH A T OF 5.5+, LEAVING ESTIMATED WINDS AT 95KT, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY REACH 100KT WITH A T OF 6.0- NOT FAR OFF. ANGGREK REMAINS AN INTENSE TOPICAL CYCLONE AND SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY. NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK IS BEING STEERED BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE FLOWS, GUIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS SHIFTING EASTWARDS. ANGGREK WILL INITIALLY DIP FURTHER SOUTH, AND FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD START TO TURN SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID-WEEK, THE METEOR SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, GUIDED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE SYSTEMS, WHICH SHOW LITTLE SPREAD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SPEED AT THE END OF THE RANGE AS IT EVACUATES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL) OVER THE SHORT TERM. IT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY, AND MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE SHORT TERM. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS, BUT IT WILL ONLY BE A BURST. THE EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR STRESS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACCORDING TO CIMSS ANALYSES THIS MONDAY, BUT THE RAPID DISPLACEMENT OF ANGGREK SHOULD WEAKEN IT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY: A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYE WALL IS STILL POSSIBLE, BUT THE DAMAGING ACTION OF WIND SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE THESE INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES A SLOW WEAKENING STARTING THIS MONDAY. THIS WEAKENING IS SET TO ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND THE OCEAN POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON WEDNESDAY, BUT BAROCLINIC PROCESSES COULD KEEP IT AT A VERY SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY UNTIL MID-LATITUDES, WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH. ANGGREK PRESENTS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
最后于 2024-01-29 20:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 291815 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/29 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.4 S / 70.9 E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH 13 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 30.5 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 31.9 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 155 SW: 250 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 165 SW: 215 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 65 60H: 2024/02/01 06 UTC: 41.4 S / 99.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 490 SE: 230 SW: 110 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 270 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=5.5- CI=5.5+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ANGGREK HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED EYE PATTERN, BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY, PROBABLY IN CONNECTION WITH THE DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S. THE CLOUD MASS TENDS TO BECOME MORE ASYMMETRICAL AND EXPANDING SOUTHWARD DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR. INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 90KT, IN LINE WITH AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE 1643Z ASCAT-C PASS. NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK IS STARTING A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN DUE TO A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE MERGING INTO THE RAPID MID-LATITUDES STORM TRACK. ANGGREK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING SHEAR AND A RAPID DROP IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. UNDER THE EFFECT OF ACTIVE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, BUT STILL RETAIN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY, THUS BECOMING A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH. ANGGREK DOES NOT THREAT INHABITED LANDS.=
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WTXS32 PGTW 292100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 030// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 030 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 26.3S 70.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.3S 70.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 28.6S 72.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 30.4S 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 32.2S 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 25 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 34.4S 85.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 26.9S 71.2E. 29JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 832 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291800Z IS 944 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z AND 302100Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 292100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 030// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 26.3S 70.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 832 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 06S (ANGGREK) WITH A DECREASINGLY ORGANIZED, YET COMPACT EYE-STRUCTURE TRACKING SOUTHWARD RELATIVE TO THE POSITION SIX HOURS AGO. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN OBSERVABLE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPED COMPLETELY AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND AN OBSERVABLE 14NM EYE-FEATURE; HOWEVER, THE OVERALL STORM STRUCTURE HAS BECOME NOTICEABLY ELONGATED IN NATURE WITH ASSOCIATED TRANSVERSE BANDING BEING INFLUENCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COLLAPSING EYE OBSERVABLE IN A 291800Z GOES-IO EIR SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102TS) AND THE CONTINUED ORGANIZED OVERALL STRUCTURE, WHILE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ASSESSED BETWEEN 92-115 KTS. THE INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH CONTINUED SUSTAINMENT OF CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER, AN ONGOING OBSERVABLE EYE-STRUCTURE, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS FMEE: T5.5 - 102 KTS FIMP: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 291900Z CIMSS AIDT: 107 KTS AT 291900Z CIMSS DPRINT: 92 KTS AT 291700Z CIMSS SATCON: 117 KTS AT 291830Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S (ANGGREK) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AS THE CYCLONE IS PREDOMINANTLY STEERED BY THE WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING RIDGE DIRECTLY TO THE EAST AND RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36, AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERLIES SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES TO GREATER THAN 40 KTS BY TAU 12 AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE TO BELOW 26C DURING THE SAME FORECAST PERIOD. AT TAU 36 TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND CONTINUE EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERLIES, EVENTUALLY BECOMING COMPLETELY EXTRA- TROPICAL BY TAU 48. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN RELATIVELY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, WITH A GRADUAL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO 115NM BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE ASSOCIATED WITH TC 06S REMAINS AT A MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS THE ETT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY. STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE REFLECTS COMPETING AND UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS NEGATIVELY IMPACT ANY CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO TAU 48, WHILE STRONG VWS, COOLER SST, AND DRY AIR WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC 06S. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-30 04:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 300036 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/4/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/30 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.9 S / 71.5 E (TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 961 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 31.3 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 155 SW: 230 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 33.1 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 325 SE: 120 SW: 215 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 65 SW: 110 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 55 48H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 38.0 S / 94.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 425 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 260 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0 60H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 45.3 S / 105.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 555 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 415 34 KT NE: 315 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 230 48 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 95 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=4.5 CI=5.5 OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ANGGREK'S EYE PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE SLIGHTLY WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND A MORE ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR. THE INNER CORE REMAINS QUITE STRONG THOUGH, AS THE 2012Z AMSR2 PASS SHOWS. INTENSITY IS DECREASED AT 85KT, IN LINE WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AND AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK IS STARTING A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN DUE TO A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE MERGING INTO THE RAPID MID-LATITUDES STORM TRACK. ANGGREK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING SHEAR AND A RAPID DROP IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. UNDER THE EFFECT OF ACTIVE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, BUT STILL RETAIN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY, THUS BECOMING A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH. ANGGREK DOES NOT THREAT INHABITED LANDS.=
最后于 2024-01-30 09:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向东南方向移动
时 间：30日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬27.9度、东经71.5度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：14级（45米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：961百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏南方向约1660公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”由16级减弱到14级
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时25-30公里的速度向东南方向移动，强度将逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月30日08时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 300725 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/4/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/30 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.1 S / 72.5 E (TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 32.2 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 165 SW: 230 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55 36H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 34.9 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 380 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 55 48H: 2024/02/01 06 UTC: 41.5 S / 99.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 585 SE: 535 SW: 260 NW: 285 34 KT NE: 305 SE: 360 SW: 230 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 75 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=4.5 CI=5.0 SHORTLY AFTER 00Z, THE ANGGREK EYE PATTERN GRADUALLY DISSIPATED, COUPLED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND ASYMMETRICAL CONVECTION GRADUALLY PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER UNDER THE EFFECT OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS DATA. FMEE'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PUTS THE AVERAGE WIND INTENSITY AT AROUND 80 KT; A VALUE SUPPORTED BY THE CALIBRATED ASCAT PASS AT 0444Z, WITH WINDS OF AROUND 80/85 KT MAXIMUM, WHICH REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE COLLAPSE OF OBJECTIVE US INTENSITY ESTIMATES SINCE THE PREVIOUS EVENING. NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK NOW HEADING SOUTHEASTWARDS DUE TO A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE MERGING INTO THE RAPID MID-LATITUDES STORM TRACK. ANGGREK IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING SHEAR AND A LACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. UNDER THE EFFECT OF ACTIVE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, BUT STILL RETAIN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY, THUS BECOMING A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH. ANGGREK DOES NOT THREAT INHABITED LANDS0=
最后于 2024-01-30 15:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：