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WTIO30 FMEE 291219 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/29 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 70.8 E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH 14 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 325 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55 60H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 36.5 S / 91.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 445 SE: 350 SW: 215 NW: 370 34 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 220 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 65 72H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 42.2 S / 99.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 650 SE: 405 SW: 240 NW: 435 34 KT NE: 335 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 260 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 85 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=5.5+ OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN IN THE EYE HAS CHANGED LITTLE. THE SYMMETRY HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSTANT, WITH ONE EYE APPEARING SHARPER. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE EYE ANALYSIS WITH SHORT TIME STEPS SHOWS A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST FEW MOMENTS WITH A T OF 5.5+, LEAVING ESTIMATED WINDS AT 95KT, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY REACH 100KT WITH A T OF 6.0- NOT FAR OFF. ANGGREK REMAINS AN INTENSE TOPICAL CYCLONE AND SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY. NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK IS BEING STEERED BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE FLOWS, GUIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS SHIFTING EASTWARDS. ANGGREK WILL INITIALLY DIP FURTHER SOUTH, AND FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD START TO TURN SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID-WEEK, THE METEOR SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, GUIDED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE SYSTEMS, WHICH SHOW LITTLE SPREAD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SPEED AT THE END OF THE RANGE AS IT EVACUATES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL) OVER THE SHORT TERM. IT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY, AND MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE SHORT TERM. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS, BUT IT WILL ONLY BE A BURST. THE EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR STRESS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACCORDING TO CIMSS ANALYSES THIS MONDAY, BUT THE RAPID DISPLACEMENT OF ANGGREK SHOULD WEAKEN IT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY: A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYE WALL IS STILL POSSIBLE, BUT THE DAMAGING ACTION OF WIND SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE THESE INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES A SLOW WEAKENING STARTING THIS MONDAY. THIS WEAKENING IS SET TO ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND THE OCEAN POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON WEDNESDAY, BUT BAROCLINIC PROCESSES COULD KEEP IT AT A VERY SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY UNTIL MID-LATITUDES, WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH. ANGGREK PRESENTS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
最后于 2024-01-29 20:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 291815 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/29 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.4 S / 70.9 E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH 13 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 30.5 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 31.9 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 155 SW: 250 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 165 SW: 215 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 65 60H: 2024/02/01 06 UTC: 41.4 S / 99.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 490 SE: 230 SW: 110 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 270 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=5.5- CI=5.5+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ANGGREK HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED EYE PATTERN, BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY, PROBABLY IN CONNECTION WITH THE DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S. THE CLOUD MASS TENDS TO BECOME MORE ASYMMETRICAL AND EXPANDING SOUTHWARD DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR. INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 90KT, IN LINE WITH AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE 1643Z ASCAT-C PASS. NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK IS STARTING A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN DUE TO A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE MERGING INTO THE RAPID MID-LATITUDES STORM TRACK. ANGGREK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING SHEAR AND A RAPID DROP IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. UNDER THE EFFECT OF ACTIVE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, BUT STILL RETAIN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY, THUS BECOMING A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH. ANGGREK DOES NOT THREAT INHABITED LANDS.=
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WTXS32 PGTW 292100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 030// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 030 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 26.3S 70.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.3S 70.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 28.6S 72.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 30.4S 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 32.2S 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 25 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 34.4S 85.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 26.9S 71.2E. 29JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 832 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291800Z IS 944 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z AND 302100Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 292100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 030// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 26.3S 70.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 832 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 06S (ANGGREK) WITH A DECREASINGLY ORGANIZED, YET COMPACT EYE-STRUCTURE TRACKING SOUTHWARD RELATIVE TO THE POSITION SIX HOURS AGO. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN OBSERVABLE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPED COMPLETELY AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND AN OBSERVABLE 14NM EYE-FEATURE; HOWEVER, THE OVERALL STORM STRUCTURE HAS BECOME NOTICEABLY ELONGATED IN NATURE WITH ASSOCIATED TRANSVERSE BANDING BEING INFLUENCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COLLAPSING EYE OBSERVABLE IN A 291800Z GOES-IO EIR SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102TS) AND THE CONTINUED ORGANIZED OVERALL STRUCTURE, WHILE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ASSESSED BETWEEN 92-115 KTS. THE INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH CONTINUED SUSTAINMENT OF CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER, AN ONGOING OBSERVABLE EYE-STRUCTURE, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS FMEE: T5.5 - 102 KTS FIMP: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 291900Z CIMSS AIDT: 107 KTS AT 291900Z CIMSS DPRINT: 92 KTS AT 291700Z CIMSS SATCON: 117 KTS AT 291830Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S (ANGGREK) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AS THE CYCLONE IS PREDOMINANTLY STEERED BY THE WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING RIDGE DIRECTLY TO THE EAST AND RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36, AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERLIES SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES TO GREATER THAN 40 KTS BY TAU 12 AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE TO BELOW 26C DURING THE SAME FORECAST PERIOD. AT TAU 36 TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND CONTINUE EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERLIES, EVENTUALLY BECOMING COMPLETELY EXTRA- TROPICAL BY TAU 48. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN RELATIVELY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, WITH A GRADUAL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO 115NM BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE ASSOCIATED WITH TC 06S REMAINS AT A MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS THE ETT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY. STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE REFLECTS COMPETING AND UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS NEGATIVELY IMPACT ANY CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO TAU 48, WHILE STRONG VWS, COOLER SST, AND DRY AIR WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC 06S. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-30 04:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 300036 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/4/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/30 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.9 S / 71.5 E (TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 961 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 31.3 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 155 SW: 230 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 33.1 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 325 SE: 120 SW: 215 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 65 SW: 110 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 55 48H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 38.0 S / 94.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 425 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 260 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0 60H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 45.3 S / 105.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 555 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 415 34 KT NE: 315 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 230 48 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 95 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=4.5 CI=5.5 OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ANGGREK'S EYE PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE SLIGHTLY WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND A MORE ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR. THE INNER CORE REMAINS QUITE STRONG THOUGH, AS THE 2012Z AMSR2 PASS SHOWS. INTENSITY IS DECREASED AT 85KT, IN LINE WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AND AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK IS STARTING A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN DUE TO A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE MERGING INTO THE RAPID MID-LATITUDES STORM TRACK. ANGGREK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING SHEAR AND A RAPID DROP IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. UNDER THE EFFECT OF ACTIVE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, BUT STILL RETAIN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY, THUS BECOMING A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH. ANGGREK DOES NOT THREAT INHABITED LANDS.=
最后于 2024-01-30 09:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向东南方向移动
时 间：30日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬27.9度、东经71.5度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：14级（45米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：961百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏南方向约1660公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”由16级减弱到14级
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时25-30公里的速度向东南方向移动，强度将逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月30日08时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 300725 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/4/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/30 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.1 S / 72.5 E (TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 32.2 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 165 SW: 230 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55 36H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 34.9 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 380 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 55 48H: 2024/02/01 06 UTC: 41.5 S / 99.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 585 SE: 535 SW: 260 NW: 285 34 KT NE: 305 SE: 360 SW: 230 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 75 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=4.5 CI=5.0 SHORTLY AFTER 00Z, THE ANGGREK EYE PATTERN GRADUALLY DISSIPATED, COUPLED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND ASYMMETRICAL CONVECTION GRADUALLY PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER UNDER THE EFFECT OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS DATA. FMEE'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PUTS THE AVERAGE WIND INTENSITY AT AROUND 80 KT; A VALUE SUPPORTED BY THE CALIBRATED ASCAT PASS AT 0444Z, WITH WINDS OF AROUND 80/85 KT MAXIMUM, WHICH REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE COLLAPSE OF OBJECTIVE US INTENSITY ESTIMATES SINCE THE PREVIOUS EVENING. NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK NOW HEADING SOUTHEASTWARDS DUE TO A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE MERGING INTO THE RAPID MID-LATITUDES STORM TRACK. ANGGREK IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING SHEAR AND A LACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. UNDER THE EFFECT OF ACTIVE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, BUT STILL RETAIN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY, THUS BECOMING A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH. ANGGREK DOES NOT THREAT INHABITED LANDS0=
最后于 2024-01-30 15:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS32 PGTW 300900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 031// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 031 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 29.1S 72.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.1S 72.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 30.9S 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 32.7S 81.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 39 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 36.5S 89.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 300900Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 73.6E. 30JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1002 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300600Z IS 957 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND 310900Z. // NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 300900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 031// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 29.1S 72.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1002 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (ANGGREK) IS RAPIDLY SUCCUMBING TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A DEARTH OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS MADE ANALYSIS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING, BUT THE MSI CLEARLY SHOWS THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN COMPLETELY DISPLACED AWAY FROM THE NOW EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS THUS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KNOTS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY IS HEDGED ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE OBJECTIVE FIX ESTIMATES BUT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES NOTED BELOW. THE PAST 24 HOURS WORTH OF BEST TRACK INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN REANALYZED UPWARDS BASED ON MULTIPLE SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR (SAR), SMAP, AND ULTRA-HIGH RESOLUTION (UHR) ASCAT PASSES WHICH INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS ROUGHLY 10-15 KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE FIX ESTIMATES. HOWEVER, THE PARTY IS NOW OVER AND THE SYSTEM IS IN RAPID DECLINE AS VWS IS NOW OVER 30 KNOTS, SSTS ARE AT OR BELOW 26C AND DRY AIR IS RAPIDLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS RACING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ABOUT 100NM TO THE SOUTH. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 300600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 30+ KTS SST: 25-26 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: VERY DRY AIR RAPIDLY ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY LURKING ABOUT 100NM SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 06S IS ALREADY BEING SHEARED APART BY 35 KNOTS OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND BEING ENGULFED BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR BEING USHERED IN ALONG THE SHEAR VECTOR. MODEL-BASED PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS DEPICT A RAPID EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), STARTING WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND COMPLETING WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM EMBEDS ITSELF INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOVES UNDER AN EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX AND MOVES OVER RELATIVELY COLD WATERS LESS THAN 21C. WHILE THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES ETT, IT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN, BUT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TRANSITION AS A STORM-FORCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, THOUGH AS EXPECTED, ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES SHARPLY AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES ETT. THE JTWC TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A SHARP AND RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH, THOUGH SLIGHTLY ABOVE, THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-30 21:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向东偏南方向移动
时 间：30日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬29.1度、东经72.5度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：14级（42米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：965百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏南方向约1810公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”强度维持不变
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时30公里左右的速度向东南方向快速移动，强度逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月30日14时00分）
