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WTXS32 PGTW 300900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 031// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 031 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 29.1S 72.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.1S 72.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 30.9S 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 32.7S 81.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 39 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 36.5S 89.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 300900Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 73.6E. 30JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1002 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300600Z IS 957 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND 310900Z. // NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 300900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 031// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 29.1S 72.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1002 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (ANGGREK) IS RAPIDLY SUCCUMBING TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A DEARTH OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS MADE ANALYSIS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING, BUT THE MSI CLEARLY SHOWS THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN COMPLETELY DISPLACED AWAY FROM THE NOW EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS THUS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KNOTS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY IS HEDGED ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE OBJECTIVE FIX ESTIMATES BUT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES NOTED BELOW. THE PAST 24 HOURS WORTH OF BEST TRACK INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN REANALYZED UPWARDS BASED ON MULTIPLE SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR (SAR), SMAP, AND ULTRA-HIGH RESOLUTION (UHR) ASCAT PASSES WHICH INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS ROUGHLY 10-15 KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE FIX ESTIMATES. HOWEVER, THE PARTY IS NOW OVER AND THE SYSTEM IS IN RAPID DECLINE AS VWS IS NOW OVER 30 KNOTS, SSTS ARE AT OR BELOW 26C AND DRY AIR IS RAPIDLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS RACING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ABOUT 100NM TO THE SOUTH. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 300600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 30+ KTS SST: 25-26 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: VERY DRY AIR RAPIDLY ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY LURKING ABOUT 100NM SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 06S IS ALREADY BEING SHEARED APART BY 35 KNOTS OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND BEING ENGULFED BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR BEING USHERED IN ALONG THE SHEAR VECTOR. MODEL-BASED PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS DEPICT A RAPID EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), STARTING WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND COMPLETING WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM EMBEDS ITSELF INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOVES UNDER AN EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX AND MOVES OVER RELATIVELY COLD WATERS LESS THAN 21C. WHILE THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES ETT, IT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN, BUT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TRANSITION AS A STORM-FORCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, THOUGH AS EXPECTED, ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES SHARPLY AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES ETT. THE JTWC TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A SHARP AND RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH, THOUGH SLIGHTLY ABOVE, THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-30 21:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向东偏南方向移动
时 间：30日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬29.1度、东经72.5度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：14级（42米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：965百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏南方向约1810公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”强度维持不变
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时30公里左右的速度向东南方向快速移动，强度逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月30日14时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 301353 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/4/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/30 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.0 S / 74.2 E (THIRTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 31.4 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 140 SW: 240 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 33.3 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 95 SW: 175 NW: 280 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 55 36H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 37.1 S / 93.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 510 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 345 34 KT NE: 270 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 195 48H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 42.2 S / 101.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 545 SE: 345 SW: 240 NW: 415 34 KT NE: 315 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 220 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=4.0 CI=4.5 ANGGREK'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS WARMED UP OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DUE TO ADVERSE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (UNDERLYING COLD WATERS, STRONG WIND SHEAR (WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS) AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR NEAR THE CORE. DUE TO INERTIA, THE SYSTEM STILL RETAINS STRONG WINDS OF AROUND 70KT, WHILE RETAINING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK NOW HEADING SOUTHEASTWARDS DUE TO A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE MERGING INTO THE RAPID MID-LATITUDES. ANGGREK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE BEGINNING ITS EXTRATROPICALIZATION PHASE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, UNDER THE EFFECT OF ACTIVE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD RETAIN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY, TRANSFORMING INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH. ANGGREK DOES NOT THREAT INHABITED LANDS0=
最后于 2024-01-30 22:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 301837 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/4/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/30 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.6 S / 75.8 E (THIRTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 32.2 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 165 SW: 260 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55 24H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 34.9 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 390 SE: 120 SW: 215 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 205 SE: 55 SW: 120 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 55 36H: 2024/02/01 06 UTC: 39.4 S / 97.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 630 SE: 370 SW: 195 NW: 360 34 KT NE: 335 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 220 48H: 2024/02/01 18 UTC: 44.2 S / 107.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 630 SE: 370 SW: 195 NW: 360 34 KT NE: 335 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 220 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=NIL ANGGREK'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, SHOWING A SLIGHT TEMPORARY COOLING. ANGGREK'S MAIN CHARACTERISTIC IS ITS WIND STRUCTURE: CYCLONIC-FORCE WINDS BUT AN INCREASINGLY ASSYMETRICAL STRUCTURE, AS SHOWN BY THE ASCAT PASS AT 1708UTC. WINDS OF AROUND 65KT ARE STILL ESTIMATED. THE TROPICAL STRUCTURE IS GIVING WAY TO A POST-CYCLONIC STRUCTURE NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK IS NOW HEADING SOUTHEAST UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW JOINTLY DRIVEN BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. ON THIS TRACK, IT SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE MERGING INTO THE RAPID MID-LATITUDES. ANGGREK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALIZATION PHASE IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE, DRIVEN BY BAROCLINIC PROCESSES. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY, BECOMING A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH. ANGGREK DOES NOT THREAT INHABITED LANDS. THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS NEVERTHELESS CONTINUING TO EVOLVE IN TEMPERATE LATITUDES.
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WTXS32 PGTW 302100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 032// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 032 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 30.6S 76.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.6S 76.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 32.7S 81.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 36 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 36.2S 89.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 31.1S 77.5E. 30JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1196 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301800Z IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 302100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 032// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 30.6S 76.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1196 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 43 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (ANGGREK) IS CONTINUING TO GIVE WAY TO STRONG (40 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). OVER THE LAST TWELVE HOURS, TC 06S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME DISLOCATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE OUTFLOW SUPPORT ALOFT, AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL CONVECTIVE SUPPORT FEATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONTINUED FLARING CONVECTION JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE LLC OBSCURING THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIALLY EXPOSED EYE FEATURE AROUND THE TIGHTEST AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED FROM A 301340Z SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR (SAR) IMAGE INDICATING SWATHS OF 90 KTS ALONG THE WESTERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS EVALUATED ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE FIXES AS A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES HAS MOVED DVORAK ESTIMATES LOWER THAN OBSERVED FROM SAR AND ASCAT DATA THROUGHOUT THE LAST 12 HRS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS FIMP: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 301500Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 30+ KTS SST: 23-24 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND TRAILING EDGE OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED APART BY 40 KTS OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SUPPRESSED BY A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR FROM THE IMMEDIATE WEST. TC PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM GUIDANCE SHOWS TC 06S CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING INTO AN ASYMMETRIC WARM-CORE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, AND EXPECTED TO BECOME COMPLETELY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES SUPER-IMPOSED UNDER A WESTERLY JET MAX AND INTO MUCH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (20C) NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 70NM BY TAU 24. THE JTWC TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN AS TC 06S CONTINUES THROUGH ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN MEDIUM AGREEMENT, WHILE A RAPID WEAKENING PHASE IS FORECAST INTO TAU 24, INTENSITY GUIDANCE VARIES MODERATELY PAST TAU 12; HOWEVER, THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS, AND A CONTINUED RAPID DECREASE TO 50 KTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 24. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-31 09:45:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向东偏南方向移动
时 间：31日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬31.6度、东经79.0度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：12级（33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）
中心气压：976百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏南方向约2500公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”由14级减弱到12级
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时30公里左右的速度向东偏南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月31日08时00分）
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WTXS32 PGTW 310900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 033// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 033 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 310600Z --- NEAR 32.4S 82.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 35 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 32.4S 82.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 36.2S 90.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 310900Z POSITION NEAR 33.3S 84.8E. 31JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1767 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED. THE CIRCULATION IS DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS POINT, WHICH IS DRIVING SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES DOWN TO THE 35 KNOT RANGE. HOWEVER, A SERIES OF SAR AND ULTRA-HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASSES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE CONFIRMED THAT THE WIND FIELD REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES WOULD SUGGEST. SO, WHILE STILL WEAKENING, THE SYSTEM REMAINS A STRONG TYPHOON STRENGTH SYSTEM. PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS AND JTWC PHASE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MAKING THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THIS ETT PROCESS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM RACES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A STRONG STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310600Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 40 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN
最后于 2024-01-31 16:20:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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