WTIO30 FMEE 301353
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/4/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)
2.A POSITION 2024/01/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.0 S / 74.2 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 31.4 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 140 SW: 240 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45
24H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 33.3 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 95 SW: 175 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 55
36H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 37.1 S / 93.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 195
48H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 42.2 S / 101.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 345 SW: 240 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 220
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5
ANGGREK'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS WARMED UP OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DUE TO
ADVERSE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (UNDERLYING COLD WATERS, STRONG WIND
SHEAR (WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS) AND THE PRESENCE
OF DRY AIR NEAR THE CORE. DUE TO INERTIA, THE SYSTEM STILL RETAINS
STRONG WINDS OF AROUND 70KT, WHILE RETAINING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK NOW HEADING SOUTHEASTWARDS
DUE TO A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST
OF THE SYSTEM AND BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE MERGING INTO THE
RAPID MID-LATITUDES.
ANGGREK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE BEGINNING ITS
EXTRATROPICALIZATION PHASE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, UNDER THE EFFECT
OF ACTIVE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD RETAIN SIGNIFICANT
INTENSITY, TRANSFORMING INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH.
ANGGREK DOES NOT THREAT INHABITED LANDS0=

最后于 2024-01-30 22:00:00
被ygsj24编辑
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