南印度洋强热带气旋“安格雷克”(04U/第4号/06S.Anggrek) - JTWC:120KT 西南印度洋 东南印度洋

W ygsj24 2024-01-11 18:00:00 2948

最新回复 (137)
  • ygsj24 W 2024-01-30 20:22:06
    0 引用 131
    WTIO30 FMEE 301353
    RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
    TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
    
    0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/4/20232024
    1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)
    
    2.A POSITION 2024/01/30 AT 1200 UTC:
    WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.0 S / 74.2 E
    (THIRTY    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
    SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
    MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT
    
    3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/12 H
    
    4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
    5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
    RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
    
    6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 185
    34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 120
    48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 75
    64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45
    
    7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
    8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
    
    1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
    12H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 31.4 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
    POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    28 KT NE: 280 SE: 140 SW: 240 NW: 215
    34 KT NE: 140 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 110
    48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45
    
    24H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 33.3 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
    EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
    28 KT NE: 305 SE: 95 SW: 175 NW: 280
    34 KT NE: 155 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 155
    48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 55
    
    36H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 37.1 S / 93.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
    EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
    28 KT NE: 510 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 345
    34 KT NE: 270 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 195
    
    48H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 42.2 S / 101.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
    EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
    28 KT NE: 545 SE: 345 SW: 240 NW: 415
    34 KT NE: 315 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 220
    
    
    
    2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
    NIL
    
    
    2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    T=4.0 CI=4.5
    
    ANGGREK'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS WARMED UP OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DUE TO
    ADVERSE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (UNDERLYING COLD WATERS, STRONG WIND
    SHEAR (WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS) AND THE PRESENCE
    OF DRY AIR NEAR THE CORE. DUE TO INERTIA, THE SYSTEM STILL RETAINS
    STRONG WINDS OF AROUND 70KT, WHILE RETAINING ITS TROPICAL
    CHARACTERISTICS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
    
    NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK NOW HEADING SOUTHEASTWARDS
    DUE TO A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST
    OF THE SYSTEM AND BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD
    ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE MERGING INTO THE
    RAPID MID-LATITUDES.
    
    ANGGREK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE BEGINNING ITS
    EXTRATROPICALIZATION PHASE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, UNDER THE EFFECT
    OF ACTIVE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD RETAIN SIGNIFICANT
    INTENSITY, TRANSFORMING INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY
    WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH.
    
    ANGGREK DOES NOT THREAT INHABITED LANDS0=
    

    最后于 2024-01-30 22:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ,原因:
  • ygsj24 W 2024-01-31 04:05:00
    0 引用 132
    WTIO30 FMEE 301837 
    RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION 
    TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
    0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/4/20232024
    1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 
    2.A POSITION 2024/01/30 AT 1800 UTC:
    WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.6 S / 75.8 E
    (THIRTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND 
    SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
    MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT
    3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
    4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
    5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
    RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
    6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 185
    34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 120
    48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 75
    64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45
    7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
    8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
    1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
    12H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 32.2 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL 
    DEPRESSION
    28 KT NE: 295 SE: 165 SW: 260 NW: 270
    34 KT NE: 155 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 155
    48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
    24H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 34.9 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL 
    DEPRESSION
    28 KT NE: 390 SE: 120 SW: 215 NW: 305
    34 KT NE: 205 SE: 55 SW: 120 NW: 165
    48 KT NE: 75 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 55
    36H: 2024/02/01 06 UTC: 39.4 S / 97.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL 
    DEPRESSION
    28 KT NE: 630 SE: 370 SW: 195 NW: 360
    34 KT NE: 335 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 220
    48H: 2024/02/01 18 UTC: 44.2 S / 107.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL 
    DEPRESSION
    28 KT NE: 630 SE: 370 SW: 195 NW: 360
    34 KT NE: 335 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 220
    2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
    NIL
    2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    T=CI=NIL
    ANGGREK'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, 
    SHOWING A SLIGHT TEMPORARY COOLING. ANGGREK'S MAIN CHARACTERISTIC IS 
    ITS WIND STRUCTURE: CYCLONIC-FORCE WINDS BUT AN INCREASINGLY 
    ASSYMETRICAL STRUCTURE, AS SHOWN BY THE ASCAT PASS AT 1708UTC. WINDS OF 
    AROUND 65KT ARE STILL ESTIMATED. THE TROPICAL STRUCTURE IS GIVING WAY 
    TO A POST-CYCLONIC STRUCTURE 
    NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK IS NOW HEADING SOUTHEAST UNDER 
    THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW JOINTLY DRIVEN BY A TROUGH TO THE 
    WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. ON THIS TRACK, IT SHOULD 
    ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE MERGING INTO THE 
    RAPID MID-LATITUDES.
    ANGGREK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALIZATION 
    PHASE IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE, DRIVEN BY BAROCLINIC PROCESSES. 
    HOWEVER, IT SHOULD MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY, BECOMING A POWERFUL
    EXTRATROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH WINDS REMAINING 
    ABOVE STORM STRENGTH.
    ANGGREK DOES NOT THREAT INHABITED LANDS.
    THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS NEVERTHELESS 
    CONTINUING TO EVOLVE IN TEMPERATE LATITUDES.

  • ygsj24 W 2024-01-31 04:05:00
    0 引用 133
    WTXS32 PGTW 302100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 032//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 032    
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       301800Z --- NEAR 30.6S 76.1E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 30.6S 76.1E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       310600Z --- 32.7S 81.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 36 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       311800Z --- 36.2S 89.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    302100Z POSITION NEAR 31.1S 77.5E.
    30JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    1196 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
    SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM 
    CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301800Z IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
    WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z.//
    NNNN

     

    WDXS32 PGTW 302100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK)
    WARNING NR 032//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 30.6S 76.1E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1196 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 43 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT
    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (ANGGREK) IS CONTINUING TO GIVE WAY TO
    STRONG (40 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). OVER THE
    LAST TWELVE HOURS, TC 06S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME
    DISLOCATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE OUTFLOW SUPPORT
    ALOFT, AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
    CONVECTIVE SUPPORT FEATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH
    MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONTINUED FLARING CONVECTION JUST
    DOWNSTREAM OF THE LLC OBSCURING THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIALLY
    EXPOSED EYE FEATURE AROUND THE TIGHTEST AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING.
    THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE
    INTENSITY IS ASSESSED FROM A 301340Z SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR (SAR)
    IMAGE INDICATING SWATHS OF 90 KTS ALONG THE WESTERN AND EASTERN
    PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS EVALUATED ABOVE
    THE MAJORITY OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE FIXES AS A DECREASE IN
    CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES HAS MOVED DVORAK ESTIMATES LOWER THAN
    OBSERVED FROM SAR AND ASCAT DATA THROUGHOUT THE LAST 12 HRS.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
       PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
       DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
       FIMP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
       CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 301500Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
       VWS: 30+ KTS
       SST: 23-24 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
    THE NORTHEAST AND TRAILING EDGE OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
    SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED APART BY 40
    KTS OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SUPPRESSED BY A DEEP LAYER OF DRY
    AIR FROM THE IMMEDIATE WEST. TC PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
    TC 06S CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING INTO AN ASYMMETRIC WARM-CORE SYSTEM
    THROUGH THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, AND EXPECTED TO BECOME
    COMPLETELY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
    SUPER-IMPOSED UNDER A WESTERLY JET MAX AND INTO MUCH COOLER SEA
    SURFACE TEMPERATURES (20C) NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD
    AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
    FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 70NM BY TAU 24.
    THE JTWC TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN AS TC 06S
    CONTINUES THROUGH ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    REMAINS IN MEDIUM AGREEMENT, WHILE A RAPID WEAKENING PHASE IS
    FORECAST INTO TAU 24, INTENSITY GUIDANCE VARIES MODERATELY PAST TAU
    12; HOWEVER, THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS,
    AND A CONTINUED RAPID DECREASE TO 50 KTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 24.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    最后于 2024-01-31 09:45:00 被ygsj24编辑 ,原因:
  • ygsj24 W 2024-01-31 09:37:03
    0 引用 134

    全球热带气旋监测公报

    预报:刘 达  签发:高拴柱  2024 年 01 月 31 日 10

    “安格雷克”向东偏南方向移动

    时       间:31日08时(北京时)

    海       域:南印度洋

    命       名:“安格雷克”,ANGGREK

    中心位置:南纬31.6度、东经79.0度

    强度等级:热带气旋

    最大风力:12级(33米/秒,相当于我国的台风级)

    中心气压:976百帕

    参考位置:毛里求斯路易港东偏南方向约2500公里的洋面上

    变化过程:过去24小时,“安格雷克”由14级减弱到12级

    预报结论:“安格雷克”将以每小时30公里左右的速度向东偏南方向移动,强度逐渐减弱。

    图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2024年01月31日08时00分)

  • ygsj24 W 2024-01-31 15:18:23
    0 引用 135
    WTXS32 PGTW 310900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 033//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 033    
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       310600Z --- NEAR 32.4S 82.8E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 35 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 32.4S 82.8E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       311800Z --- 36.2S 90.8E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    310900Z POSITION NEAR 33.3S 84.8E.
    31JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    1767 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
    SOUTHEASTWARD AT 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 
    MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING 
    LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY 
    ELONGATED. THE CIRCULATION IS DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT 
    THIS POINT, WHICH IS DRIVING SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK-BASED 
    INTENSITY ESTIMATES DOWN TO THE 35 KNOT RANGE. HOWEVER, A SERIES OF 
    SAR AND ULTRA-HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASSES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF 
    DAYS HAVE CONFIRMED THAT THE WIND FIELD REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER 
    THAN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES WOULD SUGGEST. SO, WHILE STILL WEAKENING, 
    THE SYSTEM REMAINS A STRONG TYPHOON STRENGTH SYSTEM. PHASE SPACE 
    DIAGRAMS AND JTWC PHASE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MAKING 
    THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IT IS 
    EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THIS ETT PROCESS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE 
    SYSTEM RACES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A ROBUST 
    UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A STRONG STR TO THE NORTHEAST. 
    THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 
    PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF 
    REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310600Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM 
    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 40 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL 
    CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
    //
    NNNN

    最后于 2024-01-31 16:20:00 被ygsj24编辑 ,原因:
  • ygsj24 W 2024-01-31 16:23:43
    0 引用 136

    全球热带气旋监测公报

    预报:刘 达  签发:高拴柱  2024 年 01 月 31 日 18

    “安格雷克”变性为温带气旋

    时       间:31日14时(北京时)

    海       域:南印度洋

    命       名:“安格雷克”,ANGGREK

    中心位置:南纬32.4度、东经82.8度

    参考位置:毛里求斯路易港东偏南方向约2860公里的洋面上

    变化过程:过去24小时,“安格雷克”变性为温带气旋

    (这是关于“安格雷克”的最后一期监测公报)

    图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2024年01月31日14时00分)

  • ygsj24 W 2024-02-01 20:00:00
    0 引用 137

    最后于 2024-02-05 19:15:00 被ygsj24编辑 ,原因:
  • karding MG 2024-02-02 19:21:29
    0 引用 138

    BOM天气图存档

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