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WTXS32 PGTW 170900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 10.1S 94.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S 94.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 10.9S 94.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 11.6S 93.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 12.2S 93.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 12.7S 93.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 13.2S 92.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 13.1S 91.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 12.9S 89.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 94.0E. 17JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170600Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 170900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 10.1S 94.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 200 NM NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) HAS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ALOFT DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST, REVEALING A VERTICAL TILT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH HEIGHT. ASYMMETRICAL SWATHS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM HIGHLIGHTS BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS IDENTIFIED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BY HIMAWARI-9 ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY AT 170550Z REVEALING A SLIGHTLY OFFSET REGION OF CIRCULATION UNDER WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RCM-2 SAR PASS AT 162331Z DETAILING 50KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. DESPITE THE DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE LOWER LEVELS EXPOSE A TIGHT CIRCULATION OF CLOUD BANDS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LOW AT 10-15KTS, BUT MID-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE CUTTING OFF THE SYSTEM WITH GFS MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING 15-20KTS EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR IN THE 350-800 MB BAND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN IN THE 27-29C RANGE AND OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS LOW. THE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR AT THE MOMENT IS THE DRY AIR FIRMLY ENSCONCED TO THE WEST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 45 KTS AT 170630Z CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 170530Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S (ANGGREK) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH RIDING THE EDGE OF A STRONG RIDGE TO THE EAST THROUGH TAU 12. BETWEEN TAU 12-24, THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BUILD AND EXTEND WITH A STRONG GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM, STEERING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48. BY TAU 72, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN DUE WEST AS A RESULT OF BEING BLOCKED TO THE NORTH BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER), TO THE EAST BY A TROUGH, AND TO THE SOUTH BY A RIDGE. SYSTEM INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO FAVORABLE SST (27-29C), LOW DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR, MODEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS, AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR PREVENTING THE SYSTEM FROM CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY BEYOND TAU 36 IS THE DRY AIR THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD (TAU 120). MID LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT IN THE EARLY PHASE OF THE FORECAST, THE SHEAR WILL BE OFFSET BY THE OTHER FAVORABLE PARAMETERS, ALLOWING FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION. IN THE LONGER-TERM, THE COMBINED IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR AND MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TC 06S (ANGGREK) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD OF THE TIMING AT WHICH THE STORM WILL INFLUENCED BY THE STEERING OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AT TAU 24, THE JTWC CONSENUS MEMBER SHOW ONLY A 70NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD ALL HEADING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BUT BEGIN TO DISAGREE AND INCREASE TO 178 NM BY TAU 48 AS GFS BEGINS TO CUT THE TURN TO THE WEST AND ECMWF CONTINUES POLEWARD. BY TAU 72, ALL MEMBERS HEAD IN THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION, DESPITE SHOWING DIFFERING SPEEDS. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. CONSENSUS MEMBERS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 AND BEGIN TO SUCCUMB TO THE AFFECTS OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BY TAU 36, GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 50KTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向偏南方向移动
时 间：17日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬10.1度、东经94.0度
强度等级：强热带风暴
最大风力：10级（26米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：981百帕
参考位置：科科斯群岛西北方向约390公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”由8级加强到10级
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时10-15公里左右的速度向偏南方向移动，强度略有加强。
图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月17日14时00分）
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IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1317 UTC 17/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 10.3S Longitude: 94.2E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: south (171 deg) Speed of Movement: 3 knots (6 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 995 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm (295 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 17/1800: 10.7S 94.2E: 040 (075): 045 (085): 992 +12: 18/0000: 11.1S 94.1E: 050 (095): 050 (095): 989 +18: 18/0600: 11.6S 93.9E: 060 (110): 055 (100): 985 +24: 18/1200: 12.0S 93.9E: 070 (130): 055 (100): 985 +36: 19/0000: 12.6S 93.4E: 080 (150): 045 (085): 992 +48: 19/1200: 12.9S 93.2E: 095 (175): 045 (085): 991 +60: 20/0000: 12.9S 92.9E: 105 (195): 040 (075): 994 +72: 20/1200: 12.7S 92.5E: 120 (220): 040 (075): 994 +96: 21/1200: 12.3S 91.3E: 135 (245): 030 (055): 997 +120: 22/1200: 12.2S 90.1E: 165 (310): 030 (055): 1000 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is currently moving slowly in a general southerly direction The position is biased to a recent ssmis micorwave image at 0954UTC along with the last available Himawarri visible imagery this evening. Dvorak analysis: DT 2.5 based on 0.4 curved band. A W- trend gives MET and PT of 2.5. FT of 2.5 based MET, CI held above FT at 3.0. Current objective aids that are up to date: ADT 39 kn, AiDT 34 kn, DPRINT 34 kn and DMINT (0954UTC) 3 kn (all one-minute means). Intensity set to 35 kn. SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. CIMSS upper wind analysis indicates that shear is around 20 knots northeasterly. Deep convection continues to struggle to persist near the system. Anggrek is expected to continue to move generally to the south until Friday with steering from the monsoon flow to the north dominating. Even though there has been weakening in the cloud pattern, it is forecast to slowly strengthen in the next 18 to 24 hours with generally favourable conditions. Anggrek is forecast to reach category 2 intensity during Thursday. On Friday, the steering pattern becomes more complex due to competing influences. The primary factors include mid-level westerlies to the north of the system and a redeveloping ridge to the south. Most guidance suggests that the ridge will dominate as the steering influence, causing Anggrek to turn westward. However, a minority of guidance suggests the system may move eastward with the mid-level westerlies being dominant. In either case, late in the week an upper trough to the south of the system will relax, and stronger upper easterlies on the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge are forecast to overlay the system, increasing wind shear and potential dry air encroachment, causing a slow weakening trend from about Friday or Saturday. Anggrek is forecast to weaken below tropical cyclone strength late weekend. However, there is a minority of guidence scenarios with potential to maintain tropical cyclone intensity and strengthen from early next week as the system moves west. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/1930 UTC.
Time (CCT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 7 pm January 17 1 10.3S 94.2E 45 +6hr 1 am January 18 1 10.7S 94.2E 75 +12hr 7 am January 18 2 11.1S 94.1E 95 +18hr 1 pm January 18 2 11.6S 93.9E 110 +24hr 7 pm January 18 2 12.0S 93.9E 130 +36hr 7 am January 19 1 12.6S 93.4E 150 +48hr 7 pm January 19 1 12.9S 93.2E 175 +60hr 7 am January 20 1 12.9S 92.9E 195 +72hr 7 pm January 20 1 12.7S 92.5E 220 最后于 2024-01-17 21:20:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1903 UTC 17/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 10.4S Longitude: 94.1E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: south southwest (206 deg) Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 997 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/S1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 18/0000: 10.7S 94.1E: 035 (070): 040 (075): 994 +12: 18/0600: 11.1S 94.0E: 050 (090): 045 (085): 992 +18: 18/1200: 11.5S 93.9E: 060 (110): 045 (085): 992 +24: 18/1800: 12.0S 93.8E: 065 (120): 045 (085): 992 +36: 19/0600: 12.7S 93.5E: 080 (145): 045 (085): 991 +48: 19/1800: 13.0S 93.3E: 090 (165): 040 (075): 994 +60: 20/0600: 13.0S 93.0E: 105 (195): 040 (075): 994 +72: 20/1800: 12.7S 92.7E: 115 (215): 040 (075): 994 +96: 21/1800: 12.4S 91.6E: 140 (260): 030 (055): 1000 +120: 22/1800: 12.5S 90.5E: 170 (315): 030 (055): 1000 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is moving slowly and generally south. The position is based on animated Himawari imagery and a 1500 UTC scatterometer pass. Dvorak analysis: MET of 2.5 based on steady trend and PAT of 2.5. Current objective aids that are up to date: ADT 41 kn, AiDT 33 kn, DPRINT 36 kn and SATCON 43 kn (all one-minute means). Scatter winds from 1500UTC partially sampled the NE quadrant and observed > 34 knots to the northeast and a wide area of 30 kts to the southwest. Intensity set to 35 knots, with gales possible in all quadrants. SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. Some dry air entrainment is shown in animated TPW. Shear products are out of date, but satellite imagery indicates it is not high or outflow in the high levels is able to resist the shear. A slow strengthening trend is forecast for Thursday and the upper winds become more easterly. Maximum forecast intensity is now 45 knots and not category 2. Due to the small size, it could still reach category 2 for a period. On Friday, the steering pattern becomes more complex due to competing influences. The primary factors include mid-level westerlies to the north of the system and a redeveloping ridge to the south. Most guidance suggests that the ridge will dominate as the steering influence, causing Anggrek to turn westward. However, a minority of guidance suggests the system may move eastward with the mid-level westerlies being dominant. If it does move east, it is likely to be a weak tropical low. In either case, late in the week an upper trough to the south of the system will relax, and stronger upper easterlies on the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge are forecast to overlay the system, increasing wind shear and potential dry air encroachment, causing a slow weakening trend from about Friday or Saturday. Anggrek is forecast to weaken below tropical cyclone strength on Sunday. However, there is a moderate percentage of guidance scenarios which move it faster to the west and have the potential to maintain tropical cyclone intensity and strengthen from early next week. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0130 UTC.
Time (CCT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 1 am January 18 1 10.4S 94.1E 35 +6hr 7 am January 18 1 10.7S 94.1E 70 +12hr 1 pm January 18 1 11.1S 94.0E 90 +18hr 7 pm January 18 1 11.5S 93.9E 110 +24hr 1 am January 19 1 12.0S 93.8E 120 +36hr 1 pm January 19 1 12.7S 93.5E 145 +48hr 1 am January 20 1 13.0S 93.3E 165 +60hr 1 pm January 20 1 13.0S 93.0E 195 +72hr 1 am January 21 1 12.7S 92.7E 215 -
WTXS32 PGTW 172100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 10.6S 94.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 94.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 11.4S 93.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 12.0S 93.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 12.5S 93.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 12.8S 92.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 12.8S 92.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 12.7S 90.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 12.5S 89.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 93.9E. 17JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10105 NM NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 172100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 10.6S 94.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1295 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) HAS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONTINUOUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL VERTICAL TILT OF TC 06S HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, AS FLARING CONVECTION AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS ATTEMPTING TO WRAP INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS IDENTIFIED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BY HIMAWARI-9 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 171556Z ASCAT PASS, REVEALING MOVEMENT OF TC 05S TO THE SOUTH FROM SIX HOURS AGO, WITH WEAK WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, AND REAL-TIME CIMMS SUMMARIES SHOW INTENSITIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LLCC RANGING BETWEEN 35-45 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN IN THE 27-29C RANGE AND OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS LOW. THE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE THE DENSE SWATH OF DRY AIR ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TC 06S. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 171449Z CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 171730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 27-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S (ANGGREK) IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH THROUGH TAU 24, SKIRTING THE EDGE OF THE WELL-ESTABLISHED RIDGE TO THE EAST. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE EAST, THE STEERING MECHANISM WILL PROGRESS THE SYSTEM GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO TAU 48 AND EVENTUALLY PROGRESS WESTWARD AT TAU 72 AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SYSTEM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING WARM SSTS (27-29C), RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IN PREVENTING CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION PAST TAU 36 IS THE LARGE SWATH OF DRY AIR EXTENDING AROUND THE ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TC 06S. BY TAU 60, DRY AIR WILL COMPLETELY WRAP THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 120. MID-LEVEL VWS IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN 15-20 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, BUT WILL ULTIMATELY BE OFFSET BY THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE, SLIGHTLY INTENSIFYING TO A FORECASTED 60 KTS BY TAU 24-48. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM THE MID-LEVEL VWS WILL LEAVE TO A SLOW AND STEADY WEAKENING BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 06S (ANGGREK) WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48, AND BEGIN TO VEER WESTWARD SHORTLY THEREAFTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BEING HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AT TAU 24, THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS CROSS-TRACK SPREAD REMAINS AT 35NM, ALL HEADING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. BY TAU 48, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 50NM AS TC 06S BEGINS ITS TREK WESTWARD WITH THE INFLUENCE OF ITS PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. BY TAU 72, ALL MEMBERS SHOW A SIMILAR WESTWARD PROGRESSION, ALTHOUGH MOVEMENT SPEED VARIES. THE PRIMARY FACTOR BETWEEN STEERING AND STORM MOVEMENT SPEED IS DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE THAT STORM INTENSITY WILL REMAIN TO INTENSIFY TO 60 KTS BETWEEN TAU 36-48, AND STEADILY DECREASE TO 50 KTS SHORTLY THEREAFTER UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-18 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0153 UTC 18/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 10.9S Longitude: 93.9E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: south southwest (203 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 997 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 215 nm (400 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 18/0600: 11.4S 93.8E: 040 (070): 045 (085): 994 +12: 18/1200: 11.8S 93.6E: 050 (090): 045 (085): 994 +18: 18/1800: 12.1S 93.4E: 055 (105): 045 (085): 994 +24: 19/0000: 12.5S 93.3E: 060 (110): 045 (085): 994 +36: 19/1200: 12.8S 93.1E: 065 (125): 045 (085): 993 +48: 20/0000: 12.8S 92.8E: 080 (150): 040 (075): 996 +60: 20/1200: 12.7S 92.4E: 095 (175): 045 (085): 993 +72: 21/0000: 12.4S 92.0E: 105 (190): 045 (085): 993 +96: 22/0000: 12.2S 90.8E: 120 (220): 040 (075): 996 +120: 23/0000: 12.2S 89.9E: 165 (305): 030 (055): 1002 REMARKS: Deep convection has developed around Tropical Cyclone Anggrek, which is now moving slowly south-southwest. Good confidence in the position which is based on a recent 2331UTC SSMIS microwave image. Dvorak analysis: Curve band is around 0.5-0.6 wrap. MET of 3.5 based on developing trend and PAT is adjusted to 3.0. FT/CI 3.0. Current objective aids that are up to date: ADT 45 kn, AiDT 33 kn, DPRINT 48 kn, and DMINT 38 kn (all one-minute means). Intensity increased 40 knots, with gales possible in all quadrants. SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. Shear is around 15-20 knots northeasterly. The system is forecast to fluctuate between 40-45 kn through to the weekend. Due to the small size, it could still reach category 2 for a period. On Friday, the steering pattern becomes more complex due to competing influences. The primary factors include mid-level westerlies to the north of the system and a redeveloping ridge to the south. Most guidance suggests that the ridge will dominate as the steering influence, causing Anggrek to turn westward. However, a very small amount of guidance suggests the system may move eastward, with the mid-level westerlies being dominant. If it does move east, it is likely to weaken into a tropical low. In either case, late this week or early next week, an upper trough to the south of the system will relax, and stronger upper easterlies on the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge are forecast to overlay the system. Increasing wind shear and potential dry air encroachment could cause a slow weakening trend from late Sunday. However, there is a moderate percentage of guidance scenarios which suggest it might move faster to the west and have the potential to maintain tropical cyclone intensity and strengthen from early next week. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0730 UTC.
Time (CCT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 7 am January 18 1 10.9S 93.9E 45 +6hr 1 pm January 18 1 11.4S 93.8E 70 +12hr 7 pm January 18 1 11.8S 93.6E 90 +18hr 1 am January 19 1 12.1S 93.4E 105 +24hr 7 am January 19 1 12.5S 93.3E 110 +36hr 7 pm January 19 1 12.8S 93.1E 125 +48hr 7 am January 20 1 12.8S 92.8E 150 +60hr 7 pm January 20 1 12.7S 92.4E 175 +72hr 7 am January 21 1 12.4S 92.0E 190 -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向南偏西方向移动
时 间：18日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬10.9度、东经93.9度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：997百帕
参考位置：科科斯群岛西偏北方向约355公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”强度维持不变
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月18日08时00分）
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IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0735 UTC 18/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 11.3S Longitude: 93.7E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: south southwest (206 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 997 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 18/1200: 11.7S 93.5E: 040 (075): 045 (085): 994 +12: 18/1800: 12.0S 93.3E: 050 (090): 045 (085): 994 +18: 19/0000: 12.3S 93.1E: 055 (100): 045 (085): 994 +24: 19/0600: 12.5S 92.9E: 060 (110): 045 (085): 993 +36: 19/1800: 12.7S 92.6E: 060 (110): 040 (075): 996 +48: 20/0600: 12.8S 92.1E: 075 (140): 040 (075): 996 +60: 20/1800: 12.6S 91.6E: 090 (165): 045 (085): 993 +72: 21/0600: 12.3S 91.1E: 105 (190): 045 (085): 993 +96: 22/0600: 12.0S 90.4E: 130 (245): 035 (065): 999 +120: 23/0600: 11.9S 89.5E: 180 (335): 030 (055): 1002 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is moving slowly south-southwest with deep convection persisting along the northern periphery. No recent microwave or useful scatterometry passes, the position is based on animated VIS imagery. Dvorak analysis: Curve band is around 0.5-0.6 wrap with a DT 3.0. MET of 3.5 based on developing trend and PAT is adjusted to 3.0. FT/CI 3.0. Current objective aids that are up to date: ADT 43 kn, AiDT 35 kn, DPRINT 49 kn, and SATCON 48 kn (all one-minute means). Intensity held at 40 knots. SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. Shear is around 15-20 knots northeasterly. The system is forecast to fluctuate between 40-45 kn through to the weekend and early next week. Due to the small size, it could still reach category 2 for a period. On Friday, the steering pattern becomes more complex due to competing influences. The primary factors include mid-level westerlies to the north of the system and a redeveloping ridge to the south. Most guidance suggests that the ridge will dominate as the steering influence, causing Anggrek to turn westward. However, a very small amount of guidance suggests the system may move eastward, with the mid-level westerlies being dominant. If it does move east, it is likely to weaken into a tropical low. In either case, late this week or early next week, an upper trough to the south of the system will relax, and stronger upper easterlies on the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge are forecast to overlay the system. Increasing wind shear and potential dry air encroachment could cause a slow weakening trend from late Sunday. However, there is a moderate percentage of guidance scenarios which suggest it might move faster to the west and have the potential to maintain tropical cyclone intensity and strengthen from early next week. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/1330 UTC.
Time (CCT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 1 pm January 18 1 11.3S 93.7E 45 +6hr 7 pm January 18 1 11.7S 93.5E 75 +12hr 1 am January 19 1 12.0S 93.3E 90 +18hr 7 am January 19 1 12.3S 93.1E 100 +24hr 1 pm January 19 1 12.5S 92.9E 110 +36hr 1 am January 20 1 12.7S 92.6E 110 +48hr 1 pm January 20 1 12.8S 92.1E 140 +60hr 1 am January 21 1 12.6S 91.6E 165 +72hr 1 pm January 21 1 12.3S 91.1E 190 -
WTXS32 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 11.5S 93.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 93.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 12.3S 93.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 12.8S 92.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 13.0S 92.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 13.0S 92.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 12.8S 91.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 12.5S 90.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 12.2S 90.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 93.7E. 18JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 11.5S 93.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 185 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A PARTIAL 180637Z ATMS 183 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A WEAKLY-DEFINED CENTER ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 180000Z HAFS-A 700-300 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PRODUCT INDICATES DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF. ADDITIONALLY, IT IS SUPPORTED BY THE CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 180530Z CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 180530Z CIMSS DPRINT: 43 KTS AT 180800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, TC 06S WILL TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR. TC 06S SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT DAY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW, HINDERED SLIGHTLY BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY NEAR 50 KNOTS FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 72 THEN FINALLY SUCCUMB TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MODEL DISCUSSION: IN GENERAL, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TRACK SPEEDS. THE LATEST ECMWF TRACKER INDICATES A SLOW LOOPING MOTION WHILE THE GFS TRACKER INDICATES A FASTER (UNREALISTIC) WESTWARD TRACK. THE 171800Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE RUN, HOWEVER, SHOWS THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK. BOTH THE GFS AND HAFS-A INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN