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IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0130 UTC 20/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 12.4S Longitude: 92.7E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: northwest (316 deg) Speed of Movement: 1 knots (1 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h) Central Pressure: 993 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm (405 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 20/0600: 12.4S 92.5E: 035 (065): 045 (085): 993 +12: 20/1200: 12.3S 92.4E: 045 (080): 045 (085): 993 +18: 20/1800: 12.1S 92.2E: 045 (085): 045 (085): 993 +24: 21/0000: 11.9S 92.1E: 050 (090): 045 (085): 993 +36: 21/1200: 11.7S 91.8E: 050 (095): 040 (075): 996 +48: 22/0000: 11.5S 91.7E: 065 (125): 035 (065): 999 +60: 22/1200: 11.6S 91.7E: 085 (160): 030 (055): 1001 +72: 23/0000: 11.7S 91.8E: 105 (190): 030 (055): 1001 +96: 24/0000: 12.1S 91.7E: 140 (255): 030 (055): 1001 +120: 25/0000: 12.8S 91.2E: 190 (345): 030 (055): 1002 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is moving slowly northwest as a category 1 system. Position is based on recent 1930Z AMSR2 and 2319Z GMI microwave images with good confidence. The GMI image shows a well-defined low level circulation and deep convective banding around the northern semicircle and weaker convection nearly encircling the southern semicircle. In the last 6 hours satellite imagery has shown renewed bursts of deep convection over the low level centre with limited curvature, while the outer cirrus on the eastern side does appear to be affected by easterly shear. Dvorak curved band of 0.6 wrap yields a DT of 3.0. MET is 3.0 based on a S trend and PAT is left at 3.0. FT/CI 3.0/3.0. There has been no recent scatterometer passes. Objective aids are beginning to increase. Current objective aids are: ADT 72 kn, AiDT 61 kn, DPRINT 57 kn, DMINT 59 kn, SATCON 54 kn (all one-minute means). Intensity remains at 45 knots (10-min mean) weighted to Dvorak assessment. SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. CIMSS Shear at 0000Z is still high at 20 knots from the east. In the short term it is likely Anggrek will remain around 45 knots in intensity or possibly increase for a brief period to 50 kt category 2 intensity. In the longer term marginal SSTs, higher shear and dry air intrusion are expected to weaken the system to below cyclone strength by Monday. There is a moderate percentage of guidance scenarios which suggest it might move faster to the west and have the potential to maintain tropical cyclone intensity and strengthen next week. The movement of the system is also being impacted by competing influences. The primary factors include mid-level westerlies to the north of the system and a redeveloping ridge to the south. For now these are reasonably balanced and hence Anggrek is slow moving. The current forecast track shows the system performing a loop until it begins a faster movement to the west by next Thursday. Ensembles show both westwards and eastwards movers and the motion will be dependent on the intensity of the system, stronger systems are likely to be steered west and weaker systems to the east. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/0730 UTC.
Time (CCT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 7 am January 20 1 12.4S 92.7E 30 +6hr 1 pm January 20 1 12.4S 92.5E 65 +12hr 7 pm January 20 1 12.3S 92.4E 80 +18hr 1 am January 21 1 12.1S 92.2E 85 +24hr 7 am January 21 1 11.9S 92.1E 90 +36hr 7 pm January 21 1 11.7S 91.8E 95 +48hr 7 am January 22 tropical low 11.5S 91.7E 125 +60hr 7 pm January 22 tropical low 11.6S 91.7E 160 +72hr 7 am January 23 tropical low 11.7S 91.8E 190 最后于 2024-01-20 09:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0729 UTC 20/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 12.3S Longitude: 92.6E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: northwest (316 deg) Speed of Movement: 1 knots (3 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h) Central Pressure: 992 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm (405 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 20/1200: 12.2S 92.5E: 035 (060): 050 (095): 993 +12: 20/1800: 12.0S 92.3E: 040 (080): 045 (085): 993 +18: 21/0000: 11.9S 92.2E: 045 (085): 045 (085): 993 +24: 21/0600: 11.7S 92.0E: 050 (090): 040 (075): 996 +36: 21/1800: 11.5S 91.8E: 055 (100): 035 (065): 999 +48: 22/0600: 11.5S 91.8E: 070 (135): 035 (065): 998 +60: 22/1800: 11.5S 91.8E: 090 (170): 035 (065): 1001 +72: 23/0600: 11.7S 91.8E: 110 (205): 035 (065): 1002 +96: 24/0600: 12.2S 91.8E: 150 (275): 035 (065): 1001 +120: 25/0600: 13.1S 90.9E: 200 (370): 035 (065): 1003 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has strengthened to a category 2 system. Position is extrapolated from a 2319Z GMI microwave image and recent animated visible imagery with moderate confidence. A 0303Z AMSU-B 89 GHz microwave image showed deep convection wrapping around the northern semicircle. In the last 6 hours satellite imagery has shown impressive bursts of deep convection above and wrapping around the low level centre with tighter curvature, while cirrus outflow is indicating the system is well ventilated, supporting a recent intensification phase. Dvorak curved band of 0.6-0.9 wrap in the last 6 hours support an average DT of 3.5. MET is 3.5 based on a S trend and PAT is left at 3.5. FT/CI 3.5/3.5. There has been no recent scatterometer passes. Objective aids have increased. The objective aids recently available are: ADT 79 kn, AiDT 72 kn, DPRINT 46 kn (all one-minute means). Intensity is increased to 50 knots (10-min mean). SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. CIMSS Shear at 0600Z is still high at 20 knots from the east but robust convection is preventing the wind shear from disrupting the system. However animated TPW shows dry air beginning to wrap into the eastern side of the system. Therefore it is anticipated that within the next 12-24 hours dry air and wind shear will begin to weaken the system to a category 1 TC on Sunday and below TC strength by Monday. However favourable upper-level outflow next week will somewhat counteract the effects of the dry air and result in a long-lived circulation with quadrant gales. A moderate percentage of guidance scenarios suggest it might move faster to the southwest and have the potential to maintain tropical cyclone intensity and strengthen next week. The movement of the system is also being impacted by competing influences. The primary factors include mid-level westerlies to the north of the system and a redeveloping ridge to the south. For now these are reasonably balanced and hence Anggrek is slow moving. The current forecast track shows the system performing a loop until it begins a faster movement to the west by next Thursday. Ensembles show both westwards and eastwards movers and the motion will be dependent on the intensity of the system, stronger systems are likely to be steered west and weaker systems to the east. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1330 UTC.
Time (CCT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 1 pm January 20 2 12.3S 92.6E 35 +6hr 7 pm January 20 2 12.2S 92.5E 60 +12hr 1 am January 21 1 12.0S 92.3E 80 +18hr 7 am January 21 1 11.9S 92.2E 85 +24hr 1 pm January 21 1 11.7S 92.0E 90 +36hr 1 am January 22 1 11.5S 91.8E 100 +48hr 1 pm January 22 tropical low 11.5S 91.8E 135 +60hr 1 am January 23 tropical low 11.5S 91.8E 170 +72hr 1 pm January 23 tropical low 11.7S 91.8E 205 最后于 2024-01-20 15:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS32 PGTW 200900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 92.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 92.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 12.3S 92.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 12.1S 92.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 12.0S 91.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 12.0S 91.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 12.2S 90.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 12.7S 90.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 13.3S 89.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 92.6E. 20JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200600Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z. // NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 200900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.5S 92.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 250 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (ANGGREK) TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 2 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERING FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST ANTICIPATING A TRACK OF WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MSI SHOWS STRONG CONVECTIVE TOWERS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AND WRAPPING UPSHEAR, AND A NASCENT WARM SPOT OR EYE FEATURE BEGINNING TO APPEAR. A 200745Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN BOTH THE 89GHZ AND 37GHZ BANDS, WITH SOME SLIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST TILT WITH HEIGHT. BOTH POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A CLEAR-CUT RCM-3 SAR PASS AT 172340Z THAT DEPICTS A CRISP EYE IN THE SYMMETRICAL CYCLONE, WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY OBSCURED BY DEEP LAYER CONVECTION ON MSI, AS WELL AS THE LATE AMSR2 PASS NOTED ABOVE. THE SAR PASS ADDITIONALLY DISPLAYED WINDS OF UP TO 81 KNOTS, WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERS FROM THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BUT IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE ADT AND AIDT ESTIMATES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AGENCY FIX INTENSITIES. THE APPARENT INTENSIFICATION SUGGESTS THAT ACTUAL WIND SHEAR IS LESS THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS HAD ANTICIPATED (20 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS MODEST PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE REGION AROUND THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A WEAK POLEWARD PUSH. HAFS CURRENTLY SHOWS THAT SST ARE IN THE 26-27C RANGE, FURTHER SUPPORTING THE STORM'S INTENSITY. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS APRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 200530Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL OTHER FACTORS: WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (ANGGREK) IS NOW ASSESSED TO BE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A STORM INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS. THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST DEVIATES 180-DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (ANGGREK) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 36, THEN TRAVEL DUE WEST THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 2 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NER TO THE NORTH AND A STR TO THE SOUTH. THROUGH TAU 48, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD, FORCING THE NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION, THEN WEAKEN AS THE NER TO THE NORTH FORCES THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT IS DRAWN TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR, INDUCED BY THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IN THE NEAR-TERM, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO APPROXIMATELY 75 KNOTS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT BUT WILL WEAKEN TO APPROXIMATELY 65 KNOTS GRADUALLY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AND COLD SEAWATER UPWELLING RESULTING FROM THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN TAU 12-36 BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH COMBINED WITH IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, WILL ALLOW FOR A RENEWED INTENSIFICATION TREND AFTER TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (ANGGREK) WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER THE MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE TURN. ECMWF ANTICIPATES THE STEERING OF BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN RIDGES TO BE MORE ZONAL WHILE THE GFS ANTICIPATES THE STEERING TO BE MORE MERIDIONAL, AND ECMWF PARTICULARLY EXPECTS THAT THE STR TO THE SOUTH WILL NOT BUILD AS STRONGLY AS GFS. THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS SUPPORT THE JTWC FORECAST, THOUGH NAVGEM IS DISCARDED, AND THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 72. THE FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSED TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE JTWC CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS ALL GENERALLY REFLECT A GRADUAL DECREASE BETWEEN TAU 0-48, HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 48 THE MODELS DIFFER IN HOW RAPIDLY THE STORM WILL REINTENSIFY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND THE RESULTING DIFFERENCES IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. GFS EXPECTS THE STORM TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD, WHICH WOULD EXPOSE THE STORM TO MORE INTENSE WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS, BUT THE MORE GRADUAL TRACK OF ECMWF WOULD EXPOSE THE STORM TO LESS WIND SHEAR AND WARMER SSTS, ALLOWING THE REINTENSIFICATION TO BE MORE EXTREME. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN, WTIH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FIRST 12 HOURS, WHICH CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION BASED ON THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE SATELLITE DEPICTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-20 21:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1256 UTC 20/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 12.3S Longitude: 92.5E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west northwest (297 deg) Speed of Movement: 1 knots (2 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h) Central Pressure: 990 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 20/1800: 12.2S 92.3E: 035 (060): 050 (095): 990 +12: 21/0000: 12.1S 92.2E: 040 (080): 045 (085): 993 +18: 21/0600: 12.0S 91.9E: 045 (085): 040 (075): 997 +24: 21/1200: 11.9S 91.6E: 050 (095): 040 (075): 996 +36: 22/0000: 11.8S 91.2E: 060 (110): 035 (065): 999 +48: 22/1200: 11.9S 90.8E: 075 (140): 035 (065): 999 +60: 23/0000: 12.0S 90.4E: 095 (170): 035 (065): 999 +72: 23/1200: 12.2S 90.1E: 105 (195): 035 (065): 999 +96: 24/1200: 12.5S 90.0E: 140 (265): 035 (065): 999 +120: 25/1200: 13.7S 89.2E: 205 (385): 035 (065): 1000 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is at category 2 intensity. Position is based on a 0745z AMSR2 pass and animated VIS and EIR imagery with moderate confidence. There is deep convection wrapping around the northern semicircle. During the afternoon there were renewed bursts of deep convection to the north of and wrapping around the low level centre with tighter curvature. Over the last few hours EIR imagery has shown a decrease in the amount of cold cloud associated with the centre. Dvorak curved band ranged from 0.6-0.9 wrap with an average DT of 3.5. MET is 3.0 based on a S trend and PAT is left at 3.0. FT/CI 3.5/3.5 based on DT. Objective aids have increased to very high estimates which appear a little unrealistic, this may be due to shear displacing the cold cloud from the LCC which could be seen on the afternoon microwave pass. The raw DTs are decreasing in the ADT values over the last few hours. The objective aids recently available are: ADT 85 kn and 82 kn, AiDT 73 kn, DPRINT 50 kn (all one-minute means). Intensity is maintained at 50 knots (10-min mean) weighted to Dvorak and the AMSR2 wind pass. SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. CIMSS Shear is still high at 20 knots from the east. Animated TPW shows dry air beginning to wrap into the eastern side of the system. Therefore it is anticipated that within the next 12-24 hours dry air and wind shear will begin to weaken the system to a category 1 TC on Sunday and below TC strength by Monday. However favourable upper-level outflow next week will somewhat counteract the effects of the dry air and result in a long-lived circulation with quadrant gales. A moderate percentage of guidance scenarios suggest it might move faster to the southwest and have the potential to maintain tropical cyclone intensity and strengthen next week though this seems less likely given environmental conditions. The movement of the system is currently slow as the ridge to the south is balanced by the monsoon to the north. As a mid-level trough well to the south moves east the ridge to the south of Anggrek strengthens again and models favour a slow west and then southwest movement Sunday and Monday. Another mid-level trough amplifies to the south early in the week, eroding the steering ridge and continuing the slow movement. By mid-week the mid-level ridge becomes more firmly established and the system is likely to continue on a southwest path. A small number of ensemble members indicate Anggrek could move east rather than west as a low. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1930 UTC.
Time (CCT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 7 pm January 20 2 12.3S 92.5E 35 +6hr 1 am January 21 2 12.2S 92.3E 60 +12hr 7 am January 21 1 12.1S 92.2E 80 +18hr 1 pm January 21 1 12.0S 91.9E 85 +24hr 7 pm January 21 1 11.9S 91.6E 95 +36hr 7 am January 22 tropical low 11.8S 91.2E 110 +48hr 7 pm January 22 tropical low 11.9S 90.8E 140 +60hr 7 am January 23 tropical low 12.0S 90.4E 170 +72hr 7 pm January 23 tropical low 12.2S 90.1E 195 -
IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1852 UTC 20/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 12.2S Longitude: 92.3E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west northwest (297 deg) Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h) Central Pressure: 990 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 21/0000: 12.1S 92.1E: 035 (060): 045 (085): 993 +12: 21/0600: 12.0S 91.8E: 040 (080): 040 (075): 997 +18: 21/1200: 11.9S 91.6E: 045 (085): 040 (075): 996 +24: 21/1800: 11.9S 91.4E: 050 (095): 035 (065): 999 +36: 22/0600: 11.8S 91.0E: 055 (105): 035 (065): 999 +48: 22/1800: 11.9S 90.6E: 075 (135): 035 (065): 999 +60: 23/0600: 12.1S 90.2E: 090 (165): 035 (065): 999 +72: 23/1800: 12.3S 90.0E: 105 (195): 035 (065): 999 +96: 24/1800: 12.7S 90.0E: 145 (270): 035 (065): 999 +120: 25/1800: 14.2S 88.6E: 215 (395): 035 (065): 1000 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is at category 2 intensity. Position is based on evening microwave passes with moderate confidence. There has been some fluctuations in the amount of cold cloud and curved banding associated with the LLCC through the afternoon and evening and the system still appears to be affected by shear with no convection able to develop on the eastern side of the centre. Microwave passes also show the low level centre offset from the upper convection. Dvorak curved band has been consistently around 0.6 with the centre located just under the edge of the convection temp gradient. DT has decreased to 3.0. MET is 3.5 based on a D- trend and PAT is reduced to 3.0. FT/CI 3.0/3.5 based on DT. Objective aids have increased to very high estimates which appear a little unrealistic, this may be due to shear displacing the cold cloud from the LLCC which could be seen on microwave passes. The raw DTs are still decreasing in the ADT values but intensity estimates remain high. The objective aids recently available are: ADTs 85 kn and 82 kn, AiDT 72 kn, DPRINT 53 kn, SATCON 70 kn (all one-minute means). Intensity is maintained at 50 knots (10-min mean) weighted to Dvorak and an evening ASCAT pass. SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. CIMSS Shear is still high at 20 knots from the east. Animated TPW shows dry air beginning to wrap into the eastern side of the system. Therefore it is anticipated that within the next 12-24 hours dry air and wind shear will weaken the system to a category 1 TC on Sunday and below TC strength by Monday. However favourable upper-level outflow next week will somewhat counteract the effects of the dry air and result in a long-lived circulation with quadrant gales. A moderate percentage of guidance scenarios suggest it might move faster to the southwest and have the potential to maintain tropical cyclone intensity and strengthen next week though this seems less likely given environmental conditions. The movement of the system is currently slow as the ridge to the south is balanced by the monsoon to the north. As a mid-level trough well to the south moves east the ridge to the south of Anggrek strengthens again and models favour a slow west and then southwest movement Sunday and Monday. Another mid-level trough amplifies to the south early in the week, eroding the steering ridge and continuing the slow movement. By mid-week the mid-level ridge becomes more firmly established and the system is likely to continue on a southwest path. A small number of ensemble members indicate Anggrek could move east rather than west as a low. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0130 UTC.
Time (CCT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 1 am January 21 2 12.2S 92.3E 35 +6hr 7 am January 21 1 12.1S 92.1E 60 +12hr 1 pm January 21 1 12.0S 91.8E 80 +18hr 7 pm January 21 1 11.9S 91.6E 85 +24hr 1 am January 22 1 11.9S 91.4E 95 +36hr 1 pm January 22 tropical low 11.8S 91.0E 105 +48hr 1 am January 23 tropical low 11.9S 90.6E 135 +60hr 1 pm January 23 tropical low 12.1S 90.2E 165 +72hr 1 am January 24 tropical low 12.3S 90.0E 195 -
WTXS32 PGTW 202100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 12.0S 92.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 92.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 11.8S 92.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 11.8S 91.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 11.8S 91.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 11.9S 91.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 12.2S 90.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 12.9S 89.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 13.7S 88.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 92.5E. 20JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201800Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 202100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.0S 92.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 253 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) HAVING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NEARLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION APPEARING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH CIRRUS FILAMENTS OBSERVED PROPAGATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE UPPER LAYERS. EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY IS OBSERVED THROUGH A GENERAL CLEARING OF UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS, WHICH WAS ALSO ANTICIPATED BY MULTIPLE NUMERICAL MODELS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY SHOWING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND EXTRAPOLATION OF A 201540 METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 201224Z RCM-1 SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR IMAGE CAPTURING UP TO 74KTS, AS WELL AS THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STR SOUTHWEST OF TC 06S AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS APRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 70 KTS AT 201500Z CIMSS ADT: 82 KTS AT 201800Z CIMSS AIDT: 70 KTS AT 201800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A WESTWARD TURN AND GRADUALLY COME TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 72. WITH SLOW TRACK SPEEDS (1 TO 3 KTS) IN THE FORECAST, UPWELLING OF COOLER OCEAN WATERS (POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 21C ACCORDING TO COUPLED ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN MODELS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHEAST ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE SYSTEMS INTENSITY. AFTER TAU 72, AND ON A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, THE TC IS ANTICIPATED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IN NAVIGATES AWAY FROM THE HINDERING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS MENTIONED WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TRACK SPEED (4 TO 5 KTS) THROUGH TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 06S WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO TAU 12 AND SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD UNTIL TAU 36. OVER THIS INTERVAL, INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TC INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY FALL. AFTER TAU 36, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TC WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST UNTIL TAU 72. INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THIS POINT, WITH GFS AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM AND OTHER MEMBERS OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MAINTAINING OR SHOWING A DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY. A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 OF 30NM, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MOGREPS, YIELDS A FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF MEDIUM. HOWEVER, AN ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF APPROXIMATELY 500NM BY TAU 120 YIELDS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK SPEED AND CONTRIBUTES TO A FORECAST CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 120 OF LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-21 04:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0129 UTC 21/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 12.1S Longitude: 92.3E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west northwest (297 deg) Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h) Central Pressure: 990 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 21/0600: 12.0S 92.1E: 035 (060): 045 (085): 993 +12: 21/1200: 12.0S 91.9E: 040 (075): 045 (085): 993 +18: 21/1800: 12.0S 91.6E: 045 (085): 040 (075): 996 +24: 22/0000: 12.0S 91.5E: 050 (090): 035 (065): 999 +36: 22/1200: 12.2S 91.1E: 055 (100): 035 (065): 999 +48: 23/0000: 12.4S 90.6E: 065 (125): 040 (075): 996 +60: 23/1200: 12.6S 90.2E: 085 (155): 040 (075): 996 +72: 24/0000: 12.8S 89.9E: 095 (180): 045 (085): 993 +96: 25/0000: 13.5S 89.3E: 135 (255): 045 (085): 994 +120: 26/0000: 15.2S 87.1E: 205 (375): 045 (085): 995 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is at category 2 intensity. Position is based on a 2238 GMI microwave image and low level cloud lines of a partially exposed low level centre in satellite imagery with good confidence. 04U is being affected by easterly wind shear and dry air with pulsating convection above and to the west of the low level centre with no convection able to develop on the eastern side of the centre. The GMI microwave image showed a band of deep convection on the western side wrapping around the north of the low. Dvorak shear pattern is being applied with the centre located just under the edge of the convection temp gradient. Average DT is 3.5. MET is 3.0 based on a S trend, with no adjustment to PAT. FT/CI 3.5/3.5 based on DT. Some objective are beginning to decrease although some still appear unrealistically high and this may be due to shear displacing the cold cloud from the LLCC which could be seen on microwave passes. The raw DTs are still decreasing in the ADT values but intensity estimates remain high. The objective aids recently available are: ADT 69 kn, AiDT 61 kn, DPRINT 48 kn, DMINT 50 kt, SATCON 65 kn (all one-minute means). Intensity is maintained at 50 knots (10-min mean) weighted to Dvorak and an earlier 1537Z ASCAT pass. SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. CIMSS Shear is unchanged at 20 knots from the east. Animated TPW shows dry air beginning to encircle the system. Therefore it is anticipated that dry air and wind shear will continue to weaken the system today and possibly to below TC strength during Monday. However favourable upper-level outflow will somewhat counteract the effects of the dry air and result in a long-lived circulation. From Tuesday wind shear decreases and despite the surrounding dry air, it is possible a renewed intensification phase will begin, allowing the system to reintensity to 40-50 knots. This intensification phase is supported by the majority of numerical models. The movement of the system is currently slow as the ridge to the south is balanced by the monsoon to the north. As a mid-level trough well to the south moves east the ridge to the south of Anggrek strengthens again and models favour a slow west and then southwest movement today and Monday. Another mid-level trough amplifies to the south early in the week, eroding the steering ridge and continuing the slow movement. By mid-week the mid-level ridge becomes more firmly established and the system is likely to continue on a southwest path. A small number of ensemble members indicate Anggrek could move east rather than west as a low. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0730 UTC.
Time (CCT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 7 am January 21 2 12.1S 92.3E 35 +6hr 1 pm January 21 1 12.0S 92.1E 60 +12hr 7 pm January 21 1 12.0S 91.9E 75 +18hr 1 am January 22 1 12.0S 91.6E 85 +24hr 7 am January 22 1 12.0S 91.5E 90 +36hr 7 pm January 22 tropical low 12.2S 91.1E 100 +48hr 7 am January 23 1 12.4S 90.6E 125 +60hr 7 pm January 23 1 12.6S 90.2E 155 +72hr 7 am January 24 1 12.8S 89.9E 180 最后于 2024-01-21 09:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0714 UTC 21/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 12.1S Longitude: 92.2E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west (270 deg) Speed of Movement: 1 knots (2 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h) Central Pressure: 989 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 21/1200: 12.1S 92.0E: 035 (060): 050 (095): 990 +12: 21/1800: 12.0S 91.7E: 040 (080): 045 (085): 993 +18: 22/0000: 12.1S 91.6E: 045 (085): 045 (085): 993 +24: 22/0600: 12.1S 91.4E: 050 (095): 040 (075): 996 +36: 22/1800: 12.3S 91.0E: 055 (105): 035 (065): 999 +48: 23/0600: 12.6S 90.5E: 070 (130): 040 (075): 996 +60: 23/1800: 12.7S 90.1E: 085 (155): 045 (085): 993 +72: 24/0600: 12.9S 89.9E: 100 (190): 045 (085): 993 +96: 25/0600: 13.9S 89.1E: 155 (285): 050 (095): 991 +120: 26/0600: 15.7S 86.3E: 215 (400): 050 (095): 992 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is maintaining category 2 intensity despite the effects of easterly wind shear and dry air. Position is based on a 0033Z SSMIS microwave, 0246 ASCAT-B and low level cloud lines on visible satellite imagery with good confidence. Deep convection continues to wrap in and over the low level centre but convection has also become more ragged and with warmer cloud tops in recent hours due to the effects of 20 knot easterly wind shear and dry air. No convection has been able to develop on the eastern side of the system. Dvorak DTs have become less clear cut. A shear pattern with the centre near the convection temperature gradient gives 3.0-3.5; similarly a curved band of 0.5-0.8 gives 2.5-3.5. MET is 3.0 based on a W- trend with no adjustment to PAT. FT is 3.0 based on MET. CI is held at 3.5. Most objective aids have decreased. Those recently available are: ADT 61 knots, AiDT 48 knots, DPRINT 45 knots (all one-minute means). Additionally, the 0246Z ASCAT-B pass showed a broad area of 45 knot winds in the eastern semicircle. Intensity is maintained at 50 knots (10-min mean). Wind radii have been adjusted based on the 0246Z ASCAT-B pass and an earlier 2332Z SAR pass. 04U is expected to weaken slowly during the next 12-24 hours due to the influence of easterly wind shear and dry air, which is gradually encircling the system. However the combination of SSTs around 28 degrees C, increasing outflow due to an upper trough west of the system from Monday and decreasing wind shear from Tuesday may enable 04U to restrengthen. This intensification phase is supported by the majority of numerical models. The slow westward movement of the system is due to a weak mid-latitude ridge to the south, which is being opposed by a near-equatorial ridge to the north. The mid-latitude ridge builds to the southeast of the system from Wednesday and accelerates 04U towards the southwest. 04U is forecast to move outside the Australian area of responsibility during Tuesday or Wednesday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/1330 UTC.
Time (CCT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 1 pm January 21 2 12.1S 92.2E 35 +6hr 7 pm January 21 2 12.1S 92.0E 60 +12hr 1 am January 22 1 12.0S 91.7E 80 +18hr 7 am January 22 1 12.1S 91.6E 85 +24hr 1 pm January 22 1 12.1S 91.4E 95 +36hr 1 am January 23 1 12.3S 91.0E 105 +48hr 1 pm January 23 1 12.6S 90.5E 130 +60hr 1 am January 24 1 12.7S 90.1E 155 +72hr 1 pm January 24 1 12.9S 89.9E 190 最后于 2024-01-21 15:20:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：
