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IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0129 UTC 21/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 12.1S Longitude: 92.3E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west northwest (297 deg) Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h) Central Pressure: 990 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 21/0600: 12.0S 92.1E: 035 (060): 045 (085): 993 +12: 21/1200: 12.0S 91.9E: 040 (075): 045 (085): 993 +18: 21/1800: 12.0S 91.6E: 045 (085): 040 (075): 996 +24: 22/0000: 12.0S 91.5E: 050 (090): 035 (065): 999 +36: 22/1200: 12.2S 91.1E: 055 (100): 035 (065): 999 +48: 23/0000: 12.4S 90.6E: 065 (125): 040 (075): 996 +60: 23/1200: 12.6S 90.2E: 085 (155): 040 (075): 996 +72: 24/0000: 12.8S 89.9E: 095 (180): 045 (085): 993 +96: 25/0000: 13.5S 89.3E: 135 (255): 045 (085): 994 +120: 26/0000: 15.2S 87.1E: 205 (375): 045 (085): 995 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is at category 2 intensity. Position is based on a 2238 GMI microwave image and low level cloud lines of a partially exposed low level centre in satellite imagery with good confidence. 04U is being affected by easterly wind shear and dry air with pulsating convection above and to the west of the low level centre with no convection able to develop on the eastern side of the centre. The GMI microwave image showed a band of deep convection on the western side wrapping around the north of the low. Dvorak shear pattern is being applied with the centre located just under the edge of the convection temp gradient. Average DT is 3.5. MET is 3.0 based on a S trend, with no adjustment to PAT. FT/CI 3.5/3.5 based on DT. Some objective are beginning to decrease although some still appear unrealistically high and this may be due to shear displacing the cold cloud from the LLCC which could be seen on microwave passes. The raw DTs are still decreasing in the ADT values but intensity estimates remain high. The objective aids recently available are: ADT 69 kn, AiDT 61 kn, DPRINT 48 kn, DMINT 50 kt, SATCON 65 kn (all one-minute means). Intensity is maintained at 50 knots (10-min mean) weighted to Dvorak and an earlier 1537Z ASCAT pass. SSTs are around 28 degrees C along the forecast track. CIMSS Shear is unchanged at 20 knots from the east. Animated TPW shows dry air beginning to encircle the system. Therefore it is anticipated that dry air and wind shear will continue to weaken the system today and possibly to below TC strength during Monday. However favourable upper-level outflow will somewhat counteract the effects of the dry air and result in a long-lived circulation. From Tuesday wind shear decreases and despite the surrounding dry air, it is possible a renewed intensification phase will begin, allowing the system to reintensity to 40-50 knots. This intensification phase is supported by the majority of numerical models. The movement of the system is currently slow as the ridge to the south is balanced by the monsoon to the north. As a mid-level trough well to the south moves east the ridge to the south of Anggrek strengthens again and models favour a slow west and then southwest movement today and Monday. Another mid-level trough amplifies to the south early in the week, eroding the steering ridge and continuing the slow movement. By mid-week the mid-level ridge becomes more firmly established and the system is likely to continue on a southwest path. A small number of ensemble members indicate Anggrek could move east rather than west as a low. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0730 UTC.
Time (CCT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 7 am January 21 2 12.1S 92.3E 35 +6hr 1 pm January 21 1 12.0S 92.1E 60 +12hr 7 pm January 21 1 12.0S 91.9E 75 +18hr 1 am January 22 1 12.0S 91.6E 85 +24hr 7 am January 22 1 12.0S 91.5E 90 +36hr 7 pm January 22 tropical low 12.2S 91.1E 100 +48hr 7 am January 23 1 12.4S 90.6E 125 +60hr 7 pm January 23 1 12.6S 90.2E 155 +72hr 7 am January 24 1 12.8S 89.9E 180 最后于 2024-01-21 09:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0714 UTC 21/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 12.1S Longitude: 92.2E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west (270 deg) Speed of Movement: 1 knots (2 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h) Central Pressure: 989 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 21/1200: 12.1S 92.0E: 035 (060): 050 (095): 990 +12: 21/1800: 12.0S 91.7E: 040 (080): 045 (085): 993 +18: 22/0000: 12.1S 91.6E: 045 (085): 045 (085): 993 +24: 22/0600: 12.1S 91.4E: 050 (095): 040 (075): 996 +36: 22/1800: 12.3S 91.0E: 055 (105): 035 (065): 999 +48: 23/0600: 12.6S 90.5E: 070 (130): 040 (075): 996 +60: 23/1800: 12.7S 90.1E: 085 (155): 045 (085): 993 +72: 24/0600: 12.9S 89.9E: 100 (190): 045 (085): 993 +96: 25/0600: 13.9S 89.1E: 155 (285): 050 (095): 991 +120: 26/0600: 15.7S 86.3E: 215 (400): 050 (095): 992 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is maintaining category 2 intensity despite the effects of easterly wind shear and dry air. Position is based on a 0033Z SSMIS microwave, 0246 ASCAT-B and low level cloud lines on visible satellite imagery with good confidence. Deep convection continues to wrap in and over the low level centre but convection has also become more ragged and with warmer cloud tops in recent hours due to the effects of 20 knot easterly wind shear and dry air. No convection has been able to develop on the eastern side of the system. Dvorak DTs have become less clear cut. A shear pattern with the centre near the convection temperature gradient gives 3.0-3.5; similarly a curved band of 0.5-0.8 gives 2.5-3.5. MET is 3.0 based on a W- trend with no adjustment to PAT. FT is 3.0 based on MET. CI is held at 3.5. Most objective aids have decreased. Those recently available are: ADT 61 knots, AiDT 48 knots, DPRINT 45 knots (all one-minute means). Additionally, the 0246Z ASCAT-B pass showed a broad area of 45 knot winds in the eastern semicircle. Intensity is maintained at 50 knots (10-min mean). Wind radii have been adjusted based on the 0246Z ASCAT-B pass and an earlier 2332Z SAR pass. 04U is expected to weaken slowly during the next 12-24 hours due to the influence of easterly wind shear and dry air, which is gradually encircling the system. However the combination of SSTs around 28 degrees C, increasing outflow due to an upper trough west of the system from Monday and decreasing wind shear from Tuesday may enable 04U to restrengthen. This intensification phase is supported by the majority of numerical models. The slow westward movement of the system is due to a weak mid-latitude ridge to the south, which is being opposed by a near-equatorial ridge to the north. The mid-latitude ridge builds to the southeast of the system from Wednesday and accelerates 04U towards the southwest. 04U is forecast to move outside the Australian area of responsibility during Tuesday or Wednesday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/1330 UTC.
Time (CCT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 1 pm January 21 2 12.1S 92.2E 35 +6hr 7 pm January 21 2 12.1S 92.0E 60 +12hr 1 am January 22 1 12.0S 91.7E 80 +18hr 7 am January 22 1 12.1S 91.6E 85 +24hr 1 pm January 22 1 12.1S 91.4E 95 +36hr 1 am January 23 1 12.3S 91.0E 105 +48hr 1 pm January 23 1 12.6S 90.5E 130 +60hr 1 am January 24 1 12.7S 90.1E 155 +72hr 1 pm January 24 1 12.9S 89.9E 190 最后于 2024-01-21 15:20:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向偏西方向移动
时 间：21日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬12.1度、东经92.2度
强度等级：二级热带气旋
最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：990百帕
参考位置：科科斯群岛偏西方向约510公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”强度维持不变
预报结论：“安格雷克”将缓慢向偏西方向移动，强度略有减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月21日14时00分）
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WTXS32 PGTW 210900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 92.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 92.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 12.0S 91.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 12.1S 91.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 12.3S 90.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 12.6S 90.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 14.0S 89.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.5S 87.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 16.6S 86.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 92.1E. 21JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175NM EAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210600Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z. // NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 210900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.0S 92.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 175 NM EAST OF COCOS ISLAND MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS QUASI-STATIONARY TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (ANGGREK) TRANSITING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 2 KTS. BANDS OF MID- AND LOWER- LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP INTO THE CENTER OF THE STORM, HOWEVER THE LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS OBSCURED BY DEEP LAYER CONVECTION AND WEAK OUTFLOW DRIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. A WEST-NORTHWEST TILT WITH HEIGHT IS SUPPORTED BY A CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS REFLECTING UP TO 21KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 27-28C SUPPORTING TC DEVELOPMENT. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHEAST IS REPRESENTED IN MSI SHOWING A WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 210336Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTING A CLEAR EYE, DESPITE AN INDETERMINATE LLCC IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM A 202332Z RCM-3 SAR PASS REPRESENTING MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 73-80KTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS APRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 59 KTS AT 0700Z CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 210530Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S (ANGGREK) IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT AT 2KTS TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 12, DRIVEN BY A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. FROM TAU 24-48, THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY CURVE FROM A WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 2KTS TRACK TO A SOUTHWEST TRACK BEFORE CONTINUING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (TAU 120). THE TRANSITION FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST IS STEERED FIRST TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR TO THE SOUTH, THEN ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STR AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS. THE INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE TO 55KTS BY TAU 24 AS A RESULT OF SIGNIFICANT UPWELLING WHICH IS DECREASING SSTS TO AS LOW AS 24C, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) PER JTWC SHIPS GUIDANCE. BETWEEN TAU 24-72 SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DRASTICALLY (1-5KTS) ALLOWING THE STORM TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY STACKED. COMBINED WITH A TRACK THAT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA OF UPWELLING, AND INTO MORE FAVORABLE SSTS, THE ANTICIPATED INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72 IS 80KTS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WIND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, COMBINED WITH A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, WILL DECOUPLE THE VORTEX AND LEAD TO A SHARP DECREASE IN INTENSITY. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 06S (ANGGREK) WILL TRACK DUE WEST THROUGH TAU 12 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND HAFS, WHICH EXPECT A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. BY TAU 24, THERE IS ONLY A 40NM CROSS TRACK SPREAD AS THE STORM MARKS THE TURN. THE LARGEST SPREAD OCCURS IN TRACK SPEED BETWEEN TAU 72-120, OPENING FROM A 100NM SPREAD AT TAU 72 TO A 450NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. GFS ANTICIPATES A FASTER TRACK TO SPEED COMPARED TO MOST OTHER MEMBERS OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN TRACK BUT IS ABOUT TWO KNOTS SLOWER THAN THE MEAN. THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS REFLECTED BY THE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK GUIDANCE, AND DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE STORM TRANSITS SOUTH HAS AN EQUAL WEIGHT IN HOW DRASTIC THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OR DECREASE. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES BELOW THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS THE MEAN IS BEING PULLED TOO HIGH BY AN UNREALISTIC SHIPS (NAVGEM VERSION) WHICH PEAKS THE INTENSITY AT AROUND 95 KNOTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-21 18:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1311 UTC 21/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 12.1S Longitude: 91.9E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west (270 deg) Speed of Movement: 3 knots (5 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h) Central Pressure: 990 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 21/1800: 12.2S 91.6E: 035 (060): 045 (085): 993 +12: 22/0000: 12.2S 91.4E: 040 (075): 045 (085): 993 +18: 22/0600: 12.3S 91.2E: 045 (085): 040 (075): 996 +24: 22/1200: 12.4S 90.9E: 050 (095): 040 (075): 996 +36: 23/0000: 12.6S 90.4E: 055 (100): 045 (085): 993 +48: 23/1200: 13.0S 89.8E: 070 (125): 055 (100): 987 +60: 24/0000: 13.2S 89.5E: 080 (150): 060 (110): 982 +72: 24/1200: 13.6S 89.1E: 105 (190): 070 (130): 975 +96: 25/1200: 14.8S 87.7E: 160 (295): 070 (130): 977 +120: 26/1200: 16.7S 84.5E: 230 (425): 060 (110): 985 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is maintaining category 2 intensity despite the effects of easterly wind shear and dry air. Position is based on a 1011Z GMI microwave pass with good confidence. Deep convection is struggling to persist near the centre due to the effects of 20 knot easterly wind shear and dry air, and cloud features are becoming ragged. However, the GMI microwave pass showed good low level structure has been maintained by the system. Dvorak DTs have become less clear cut. A shear pattern with the centre near the convection temperature gradient gives 3.0-3.5. Curved band can no longer be applied. MET is 3.0 based on a W- trend with no adjustment to PAT. FT is 3.0 based on MET. CI is held at 3.5 during initial weakening. Most objective aids have decreased. Those recently available are: ADT 47 knots, AiDT 39 knots, DPRINT 48 knots (all one-minute means), DMINT 51 knots, SATCON 51 knots (1030UTC). Intensity is maintained at 50 knots (10-min mean). Wind radii have been based on the 0246Z ASCAT-B pass and an earlier 2332Z SAR pass. 04U is expected to weaken slowly during the next 12-24 hours due to the influence of easterly wind shear and dry air, which is gradually encircling the system. However from Tuesday the combination of SSTs around 28 degrees C, increasing outflow due to an upper trough west of the system, decreasing wind shear, and an inflow of mid-level moisture from the north should enable Anggrek to restrengthen. This intensification phase is supported by the majority of numerical models. The position of the upper trough is particularly supportive on Wednesday and Thursday, and the forecast is for Anggrek to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone (category 3). The slow westward movement of the system is due to a weak mid-latitude ridge to the south, which is being opposed by a near-equatorial ridge to the north. The mid-latitude ridge builds to the southeast of the system from Wednesday and accelerates Anggrek towards the southwest. The system is forecast to move outside the Australian area of responsibility during Tuesday or Wednesday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/1930 UTC.
Time (CCT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 7 pm January 21 2 12.1S 91.9E 35 +6hr 1 am January 22 1 12.2S 91.6E 60 +12hr 7 am January 22 1 12.2S 91.4E 75 +18hr 1 pm January 22 1 12.3S 91.2E 85 +24hr 7 pm January 22 1 12.4S 90.9E 95 +36hr 7 am January 23 1 12.6S 90.4E 100 +48hr 7 pm January 23 2 13.0S 89.8E 125 +60hr 7 am January 24 2 13.2S 89.5E 150 +72hr 7 pm January 24 3 13.6S 89.1E 190 -
IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1902 UTC 21/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 12.1S Longitude: 91.7E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west (270 deg) Speed of Movement: 2 knots (5 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 995 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1009 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 22/0000: 12.1S 91.5E: 035 (060): 040 (075): 997 +12: 22/0600: 12.2S 91.3E: 040 (075): 035 (065): 1000 +18: 22/1200: 12.3S 91.0E: 045 (085): 035 (065): 1000 +24: 22/1800: 12.4S 90.7E: 050 (090): 040 (075): 997 +36: 23/0600: 12.8S 90.1E: 055 (100): 045 (085): 995 +48: 23/1800: 13.0S 89.6E: 070 (130): 055 (100): 988 +60: 24/0600: 13.3S 89.4E: 090 (165): 065 (120): 979 +72: 24/1800: 13.8S 89.0E: 110 (210): 075 (140): 971 +96: 25/1800: 15.1S 87.1E: 160 (300): 070 (130): 977 +120: 26/1800: 17.1S 83.7E: 215 (395): 060 (110): 985 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has weakened to category 1 intensity under the effects of easterly wind shear and dry air. Position is based on a 1516Z AMSU-B microwave pass and visible low level cloud features on satellite imagery. Confidence in the position is good. There is an absence of deep convection near the centre due to the effects of 20 knot easterly wind shear and dry air. Dvorak DTs are unable to be applied due to the lack of significant deep convection near the centre. MET is 2.5 based on a W trend with no adjustment to PAT. FT is 2.5 based on MET. CI is held at 3.0 during weakening. Most objective aids have decreased. Those recently available are: ADT 47 knots, AiDT 39 knots, DPRINT 40 knots (all one-minute means). Intensity is set at 40 knots (10-min mean). Wind radii have been based on the 0246Z ASCAT-B pass and an earlier 2332Z SAR pass. An 1140Z SMOS pass is consistent. Anggrek is expected to weaken a little further over the next 12-24 hours due to the influence of easterly wind shear and dry air, which is encircling the system. However from Tuesday the combination of SSTs around 28 degrees C, increasing outflow due to an upper trough west of the system, decreasing wind shear, and an inflow of mid-level moisture from the north should enable Anggrek to restrengthen. This intensification phase is supported by the majority of numerical models. The position of the upper trough is particularly supportive on Wednesday and Thursday, and the forecast is for Anggrek to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone (category 3). The slow westward movement of the system is due to a weak mid-latitude ridge to the south, which is being opposed by a near-equatorial ridge to the north. The mid-latitude ridge builds to the southeast of the system from Wednesday and accelerates Anggrek towards the southwest. The system is forecast to move outside the Australian area of responsibility during Tuesday or Wednesday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/0130 UTC.
Time (CCT) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 1 am January 22 1 12.1S 91.7E 35 +6hr 7 am January 22 1 12.1S 91.5E 60 +12hr 1 pm January 22 1 12.2S 91.3E 75 +18hr 7 pm January 22 1 12.3S 91.0E 85 +24hr 1 am January 23 1 12.4S 90.7E 90 +36hr 1 pm January 23 1 12.8S 90.1E 100 +48hr 1 am January 24 2 13.0S 89.6E 130 +60hr 1 pm January 24 3 13.3S 89.4E 165 +72hr 1 am January 25 3 13.8S 89.0E 210 -
WTXS32 PGTW 212100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 91.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 91.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 12.5S 91.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 12.7S 90.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 13.0S 90.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 13.4S 90.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.0S 89.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 15.2S 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 16.6S 85.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 91.7E. 21JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 299 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 212100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.3S 91.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 299 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) SHOWING A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND GREATLY DIMINISHED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CENTRALIZED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ENTIRELY DISPLACED, WITH ONLY FRAGMENTED CLUSTERS OF INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION DISPERSED AMONGST THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DERIVED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A LARGE DRY AIR MASS (LESS THAN 50 PCT RH) SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEMS UPPER AND MIDDLE LAYERS. THE 211200Z HWRF MODEL RUN INDICATES PROMINENT UPWELLING, SHOWING A VERY LOW 21C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AT 211800Z. THE RECENT DROP IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY RESULTANT OF BOTH FACTORS MENTIONED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC ON ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BELOW AND A 211140Z SMOS IMAGE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMOS DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: BUILDING NER NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC AND EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF STR TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 211730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72, EXPERIENCING INTENSIFICATION ALONG-TRACK AS IT PICKS UP TRACK SPEED AND FINDS WARMER WATERS AND MOIST AIR. FROM TAU 60 TO TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FIND A PEAK INTENSITY OF NEAR 75KTS. THEREAFTER, AND CONTINUING ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED TO FALL THROUGH TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 06S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, THE JTWC CONSENSUS PRESENTS A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 88NM AT TAU 72, AND 200NM AT TAU 120, EXEMPLIFYING TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AMONG JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS. A GENERAL INTENSIFICATION UNTIL TAU 60 TO TAU 72 AND THEN DOWNTREND IN INTENSITY FOLLOWING IS OBSERVED UNIFORMLY, BUT THE SPREAD AT TAU 60 IS 60KTS, CENTERED AT 75KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-22 04:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0114 UTC 22/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 12.0S Longitude: 91.6E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west northwest (289 deg) Speed of Movement: 2 knots (3 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 999 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 170 nm (315 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 22/0600: 12.1S 91.4E: 035 (060): 035 (065): 999 +12: 22/1200: 12.2S 91.3E: 040 (080): 040 (075): 996 +18: 22/1800: 12.2S 91.0E: 045 (085): 040 (075): 996 +24: 23/0000: 12.4S 90.8E: 050 (095): 045 (085): 993 +36: 23/1200: 12.8S 90.3E: 055 (105): 050 (095): 990 +48: 24/0000: 13.1S 90.0E: 075 (140): 065 (120): 979 +60: 24/1200: 13.4S 89.6E: 095 (180): 070 (130): 975 +72: 25/0000: 13.9S 89.0E: 115 (215): 075 (140): 972 +96: 26/0000: 15.5S 86.3E: 160 (300): 065 (120): 982 +120: 27/0000: 17.7S 82.5E: 210 (390): 055 (100): 989 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has weakened to category 1 intensity under the effects of easterly wind shear and dry air. Position is based on animated IR satellite imagery. Confidence in the position is good. Dvorak DT is 3.0 based on a curved band of 0.6. MET is 3.0 based on a W- trend with PAT 2.5. FT and CI are 2.5 based on PAT. Most objective aids have decreased. Those recently available are: ADT 41 knots, AiDT 36 knots, DPRINT 43 knots (all one-minute means). Intensity is set at 35 knots (10-min mean). There has been a slight improvement in deep convection over Anggrek in the last 6 hours but it could weaken further due to the influence of easterly wind shear (~20 knots) and dry air encircling the system. From Tuesday the combination of SSTs around 28 degrees C, increasing outflow due to an upper trough west of the system, decreasing wind shear, and an inflow of mid-level moisture from the north should enable Anggrek to restrengthen. This intensification phase is supported by the majority of numerical models. The position of the upper trough is particularly supportive on Wednesday and Thursday, and the forecast is for Anggrek to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone (category 3). The slow westward movement of the system is due to a weak mid-latitude ridge to the south. The ridge strengthens to the southeast of the system from Wednesday and accelerates Anggrek towards the southwest. The system is forecast to move outside the Australian area of responsibility during Tuesday or Wednesday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/0730 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 am January 22 1 12.0S 91.6E 35 +6hr 2 pm January 22 1 12.1S 91.4E 60 +12hr 8 pm January 22 1 12.2S 91.3E 80 +18hr 2 am January 23 1 12.2S 91.0E 85 +24hr 8 am January 23 1 12.4S 90.8E 95 +36hr 8 pm January 23 2 12.8S 90.3E 105 +48hr 8 am January 24 3 13.1S 90.0E 140 +60hr 8 pm January 24 3 13.4S 89.6E 180 +72hr 8 am January 25 3 13.9S 89.0E 215 最后于 2024-01-22 09:20:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：
