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WTXS32 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 91.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 91.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 13.5S 91.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 14.0S 91.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.5S 90.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.2S 90.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.8S 86.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 19.8S 82.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 21.5S 77.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 91.6E. 23JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1182 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230600Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.0S 91.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1182 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY AT 40 KNOTS DUE PRIMARILY TO UPWELLING COOLER WATER RESULTING FROM THE SYSTEM'S SLOW TRACK MOTION AS REVEALED IN THE RECENT HAFS-A SST ANALYSIS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED, WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 230342Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A 100-110 NM DIAMETER CONVECTION-FREE CORE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED LOOSELY. A 230258Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CENTER WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL WIND RADII WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RECENT CIMSS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, LIMITING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS THE PGTW, DEMS AND APRF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 230417Z CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 230530Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: UPWELLING COOLER WATER ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TRACK MOTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC UNTIL AFTER TAU 24 WHEN A DOMINANT STR IS FORECASTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES, THE LIMITING EFFECTS OF THE UPWELLING COOLER WATER WILL LESSEN AND THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE UP TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70-75 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 72, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE SLIGHTLY WITH SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND WEAKER OUTFLOW RESULTING IN A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 65 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 DIVERGING THROUGH TAU 120. THE 230000Z GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW A SIMILAR SPREAD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-23 18:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向西南方向移动
时 间：23日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬13.0度、东经91.6度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：998百帕
参考位置：科科斯群岛偏西方向约580公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”强度维持不变
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向西南方向缓慢移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月23日14时00分）
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IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1424 UTC 23/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 13.5S Longitude: 91.4E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: south southwest (205 deg) Speed of Movement: 5 knots (10 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h) Central Pressure: 996 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/12HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 23/1800: 13.7S 91.3E: 035 (065): 050 (095): 992 +12: 24/0000: 13.9S 91.3E: 040 (080): 050 (095): 992 +18: 24/0600: 14.1S 91.1E: 050 (090): 055 (100): 988 +24: 24/1200: 14.3S 91.1E: 055 (095): 060 (110): 985 +36: 25/0000: 14.8S 90.6E: 060 (110): 065 (120): 982 +48: 25/1200: 15.5S 89.5E: 075 (140): 070 (130): 979 +60: 26/0000: 16.6S 88.0E: 095 (175): 065 (120): 983 +72: 26/1200: 17.8S 86.4E: 110 (200): 055 (100): 991 +96: 27/1200: 19.5S 83.3E: 155 (290): 050 (095): 992 +120: 28/1200: 20.4S 79.9E: 210 (390): 045 (085): 995 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has a slowly improving cloud signature indicating slow intensification. Position is based on an 0500 UTC microwave pass and animated visible imagery. Confidence in the position is good. Satellite imagery in the last 6 hours has become more symmetric with cloud tops becoming slightly colder. Dvorak DT is 3.0 based on a continuous curved band of 0.8, enclosing a ragged eye feature. MET is 3.5 based on a D- trend, PAT maintained at 3.5. FT and CI held at 3.0 based on DT. Objective aids received around 1100UTC were between 44 and 49 kn (one-minute means). Intensity is set at 45 knots (10-min mean). The environment is favourable with low vertical wind shear, SSTs around 28 degrees C along the forecast track, high PW surrounding the centre and a good outflow channel to the NW. An upper trough southwest of the system will improve outflow to the south as well. This intensification phase is supported by the majority of numerical models. The position of the upper trough is particularly supportive on Wednesday and the start of Thursday and the forecast is for Anggrek to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone (category 3). During Thursday, shear increases and the system is expected to plateau in intensity then start to weaken on Friday. There remains some ensemble members which continue strengthening during this period. Anggrek is moving slowly south southwest in a gap in the mid-level ridge to its south. A strengthening ridge to the southeast is expected to maintain southwesterly steering flow for the next few days. Anggrek is forecast to move outside of the Australian area of responsibility sometime between 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC 25 January. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/1930 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 pm January 23 1 13.5S 91.4E 35 +6hr 2 am January 24 2 13.7S 91.3E 65 +12hr 8 am January 24 2 13.9S 91.3E 80 +18hr 2 pm January 24 2 14.1S 91.1E 90 +24hr 8 pm January 24 2 14.3S 91.1E 95 +36hr 8 am January 25 3 14.8S 90.6E 110 +48hr 8 pm January 25 3 15.5S 89.5E 140 +60hr 8 am January 26 3 16.6S 88.0E 175 +72hr 8 pm January 26 2 17.8S 86.4E 200 最后于 2024-01-23 22:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 2001 UTC 23/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 13.7S Longitude: 91.3E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: south southwest (213 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h) Central Pressure: 995 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/12HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 24/0000: 13.9S 91.2E: 035 (060): 050 (095): 992 +12: 24/0600: 14.1S 91.1E: 045 (080): 055 (100): 989 +18: 24/1200: 14.3S 91.0E: 050 (090): 060 (110): 985 +24: 24/1800: 14.5S 90.8E: 055 (100): 065 (120): 981 +36: 25/0600: 15.2S 90.0E: 065 (120): 070 (130): 979 +48: 25/1800: 16.2S 88.6E: 080 (150): 070 (130): 980 +60: 26/0600: 17.5S 86.7E: 105 (190): 060 (110): 988 +72: 26/1800: 18.8S 84.8E: 125 (235): 050 (095): 993 +96: 27/1800: 20.2S 81.1E: 180 (335): 045 (085): 995 +120: 28/1800: 21.3S 77.1E: 230 (425): 040 (075): 999 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has maintained a well-structured LLCC and has maintained near constant intensity overnight. Good position fixes from 1217 UTC SAR, 1243 UTC SSMIS microwave and animated visible imagery. Satellite imagery in the last 6 hours retained a partially exposed LLCC with cold tops in a curved based through the eastern semicircle. Dvorak DT is 3.0 based on curved band of 0.6. MET is 3.5 based on a D- trend, PAT adjusted to 3.0. FT and CI held at 3.0. Objective aids received around 1630-1700UTC were between 43 and 53 kn (one-minute means). Intensity is set at 45 knots (10-min mean). The environment is partly favourable with low vertical wind shear, SSTs around 28 degrees C along the forecast track and high PW surrounding the centre. However, outflow has weakened despite an upper trough to the southwest and mid-level dry air has wrapped around the periphery of the system. These factors may have temporarily limited intensification overnight. A period of intensification is forecast by the majority of numerical models. The position of the upper trough is particularly supportive on Wednesday and the start of Thursday and the forecast is for Anggrek to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone (category 3). During Thursday, shear increases and the system is expected to plateau in intensity then start to weaken on Friday. There remains some ensemble members which continue strengthening during this period. Anggrek is moving slowly south southwest in a gap in the mid-level ridge to its south. A strengthening ridge to the southeast is expected to maintain southwesterly steering flow for the next few days. Anggrek is forecast to move outside of the Australian area of responsibility sometime between 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC 25 January. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0130 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 2 am January 24 1 13.7S 91.3E 35 +6hr 8 am January 24 2 13.9S 91.2E 60 +12hr 2 pm January 24 2 14.1S 91.1E 80 +18hr 8 pm January 24 2 14.3S 91.0E 90 +24hr 2 am January 25 3 14.5S 90.8E 100 +36hr 2 pm January 25 3 15.2S 90.0E 120 +48hr 2 am January 26 3 16.2S 88.6E 150 +60hr 2 pm January 26 2 17.5S 86.7E 190 +72hr 2 am January 27 2 18.8S 84.8E 235 -
WTXS32 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 13.5S 91.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 91.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 13.9S 91.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.3S 91.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.0S 90.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.0S 88.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 17.9S 85.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.4S 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.7S 77.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 91.5E. 23JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1185 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.5S 91.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1185 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING REDEVELOPING OVER A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON 231527Z METOP-C 89 GHZ DATA AND THE 231730Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE CONSISTENT WITH A NARROW RANGE OF MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES (45-55 KNOTS). THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE MAY BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO OBSERVED INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MOVEMENT AWAY FROM A COOL PATCH OF PREVIOUSLY UPWELLED WATER. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 231655Z CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 231730Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 52 KTS AT 231800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: FORECAST INTENSITIES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD HAVE INCREASED BY ABOUT 20 KNOTS RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONSISTENT WITH CHANGES IN THE NUMERICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE PACKAGE. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TRANSLATIONAL SPEED WILL INCREASE STEADILY AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS. WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASING AND THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER WARMER WATER, STEADY NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, A MORE RESTRICTED OUTFLOW PATTERN AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HALT THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. MODEL DISCUSSION: BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK, PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD STEERING PATTERN. IN CONTRAST, INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH HAFS AND COAMPS-TC INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRONOUNCED INTENSIFICATION AT DIFFERENT POINTS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE PREDICTING A SMOOTHER INTENSIFICATION TREND AS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAPID DEVIATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOR A SMALL SYSTEM LIKE TC 06S, SO ADDITIONAL UPDATES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
WTXS32 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 018A CORRECTED// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 018A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 13.5S 91.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 91.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 13.9S 91.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.3S 91.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.0S 90.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.0S 88.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 17.9S 85.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.4S 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.7S 77.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 91.5E. 23JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1185 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z. 2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED 50-KNOT WIND RADII TO ANALYSIS (TAU 00) POSITION.// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-24 08:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0052 UTC 24/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 13.9S Longitude: 91.2E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: southwest (218 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h) Central Pressure: 994 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 110 nm (205 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 24/0600: 14.2S 91.0E: 035 (060): 050 (095): 990 +12: 24/1200: 14.4S 90.8E: 045 (080): 050 (095): 990 +18: 24/1800: 14.6S 90.6E: 050 (095): 055 (100): 987 +24: 25/0000: 14.8S 90.4E: 055 (100): 060 (110): 983 +36: 25/1200: 15.6S 89.4E: 065 (125): 070 (130): 977 +48: 26/0000: 16.6S 87.8E: 080 (150): 070 (130): 978 +60: 26/1200: 17.9S 86.0E: 100 (180): 070 (130): 978 +72: 27/0000: 18.9S 84.2E: 120 (220): 070 (130): 974 +96: 28/0000: 19.7S 80.5E: 160 (300): 070 (130): 974 +120: 29/0000: 21.5S 75.8E: 215 (400): 065 (120): 978 REMARKS: Good position fixes from microwave at 2208 UTC and 1906 UTC. Satellite imagery shows deep convection has shifted to the western semi-circle and deepened in the past 4 hours. Dvorak DT is 3.0 based on curved band of 0.7 in EIR and 85GHz microwave imagery. MET is 3.5 based on a D trend, PAT adjusted to 3.0. FT and CI held at 3.0. Objective aids that are up to date are between 40 and 53 kn (one-minute means). Intensity is set at 45 knots (10-min mean). The environment is partly favourable with low vertical wind shear, SSTs around 28 degrees C along the forecast track and high PW surrounding the centre. However, current SST's may be lower than estimated due to Anggrek moving slowly and mixing cooler water from below. This may change as Anggrek moves faster to the southwest. Also, outflow has weakened despite an upper trough to the southwest and mid-level dry air has wrapped around the periphery of the system. These factors may be temporarily limiting intensification. A period of intensification is forecast by the majority of numerical models. The position of the upper trough is particularly supportive on Wednesday and the start of Thursday and the forecast is for Anggrek to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone (category 3). From Thursday, shear may or may not increase. The forecast has 70 knots from Thursday onwards, however there may be periods of weakening and strengthening during this period. Anggrek is moving slowly south southwest in a gap in the mid-level ridge to its south. A strengthening ridge to the southeast is expected to maintain southwesterly steering flow for the next few days. Anggrek is forecast to move outside of the Australian area of responsibility sometime between 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC 25 January. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0730 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 am January 24 1 13.9S 91.2E 35 +6hr 2 pm January 24 2 14.2S 91.0E 60 +12hr 8 pm January 24 2 14.4S 90.8E 80 +18hr 2 am January 25 2 14.6S 90.6E 95 +24hr 8 am January 25 2 14.8S 90.4E 100 +36hr 8 pm January 25 3 15.6S 89.4E 125 +48hr 8 am January 26 3 16.6S 87.8E 150 +60hr 8 pm January 26 3 17.9S 86.0E 180 +72hr 8 am January 27 3 18.9S 84.2E 220 -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向偏北方向移动
时 间：24日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬13.9度、东经91.2度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：994百帕
参考位置：科科斯群岛西偏南方向约650公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”由8级加强到9级
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向西南方向缓慢移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月24日08时00分）
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IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0734 UTC 24/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 14.0S Longitude: 91.1E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: southwest (224 deg) Speed of Movement: 1 knots (3 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h) Central Pressure: 992 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (25 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 24/1200: 14.2S 91.1E: 030 (055): 065 (120): 985 +12: 24/1800: 14.4S 90.9E: 040 (075): 075 (140): 977 +18: 25/0000: 14.6S 90.7E: 045 (085): 080 (150): 973 +24: 25/0600: 15.0S 90.2E: 055 (095): 080 (150): 970 +36: 25/1800: 16.0S 88.7E: 060 (110): 085 (155): 967 +48: 26/0600: 17.2S 86.9E: 070 (135): 090 (165): 963 +60: 26/1800: 18.4S 84.9E: 090 (170): 090 (165): 960 +72: 27/0600: 19.2S 83.0E: 115 (210): 085 (155): 963 +96: 28/0600: 20.0S 78.9E: 160 (295): 075 (140): 972 +120: 29/0600: 21.9S 74.6E: 230 (425): 070 (130): 976 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has started rapidly intensifying, has reached category 2 and is expected to reach category 3 in the next 6 hours. Good position fixes from IR and VIS imagery due to the eye pattern. Dvorak DT is 5.0 based on a 3 hour average of an eye pattern. MET/PAT is 4.5 based on a D+ trend. FT and CI restrained to 3.5, which is a 0.5 increase over 6 hours. Objective aids that are up to date are between 42 and 58 kn (one-minute means). Intensity is set at 55 knots (10-min mean). The environment is favourable with low vertical wind shear, SSTs around 28 degrees C along the forecast track and high PW surrounding the centre. Recent SST analyses indicate a cool patch of ~24 degree SST where Anggrek has passed over. With Anggrek moving slightly faster to the southwest this morning, it could have reach some warmed water which has led to the small system rapidly intensifying. Intensification is forecast by the majority of numerical models. The position of the upper trough is particularly supportive on Wednesday and the start of Thursday. From Friday, shear may or may not increase, with shear increasing becoming more likely over the weekend. The upper pattern is complex due to other tropical systems to the west. Anggrek is moving slowly south southwest in a gap in the mid-level ridge to its south. A strengthening ridge to the southeast is expected to maintain southwesterly steering flow for the next few days, with the speed increasing during Thursday. Anggrek is forecast to move outside of the Australian area of responsibility sometime between 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC 25 January. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1330 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 2 pm January 24 2 14.0S 91.1E 30 +6hr 8 pm January 24 3 14.2S 91.1E 55 +12hr 2 am January 25 3 14.4S 90.9E 75 +18hr 8 am January 25 3 14.6S 90.7E 85 +24hr 2 pm January 25 3 15.0S 90.2E 95 +36hr 2 am January 26 3 16.0S 88.7E 110 +48hr 2 pm January 26 4 17.2S 86.9E 135 +60hr 2 am January 27 4 18.4S 84.9E 170 +72hr 2 pm January 27 3 19.2S 83.0E 210 -
WTXS32 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 14.1S 91.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 91.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.5S 90.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.1S 89.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 15.9S 88.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.0S 86.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 19.1S 82.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.4S 77.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 22.6S 73.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 91.0E. 24JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1174 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.1S 91.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1174 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 20 NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LOW RESOLUTION 240714Z N20 ATMS 165 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CIMSS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DEPICT RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A JET TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE MIXED WITH THE RECENT DPRINT ESTIMATE AT 71 KNOTS, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH UNOFFICIAL PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS). INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 54 KTS AT 240227Z CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 240730Z CIMSS DPRINT: 71 KTS AT 240800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DUE TO THE IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) PHASE, TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY TO 90-95 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS BUT COULD EASILY PEAK AT HIGHER VALUES. AFTER TAU 36, SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SST (26-28 C) AND ENTRAINS DRY AIR. HOWEVER, REINTENSIFICATION TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 96 IS LIKELY AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER A POOL OF WARM SST (29C). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THROUGH TAU 48, RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE HAS TRIGGERED, REFLECTING THE IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER MESOSCALE GUIDANCE PEAK VALUES RANGE FROM 67 TO 110 KNOTS. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MESOSCALE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RANGES FROM A PEAK OF 90 TO 135 KNOTS. DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-24 18:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向南偏西方向移动
时 间：24日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬14.0度、东经91.1度
强度等级：二级热带气旋
最大风力：11级（30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：992百帕
参考位置：科科斯群岛西偏南方向约660公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”由8级加强到11级
预报结论：“安格雷克” 将以每小时5-10公里的速度向西南方向缓慢移动，强度变化不大。
图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月24日14时00分）