最新回复 (128)
-
WTXS32 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 13.5S 91.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 91.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 13.9S 91.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.3S 91.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.0S 90.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.0S 88.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 17.9S 85.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.4S 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.7S 77.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 91.5E. 23JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1185 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.5S 91.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1185 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING REDEVELOPING OVER A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON 231527Z METOP-C 89 GHZ DATA AND THE 231730Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE CONSISTENT WITH A NARROW RANGE OF MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES (45-55 KNOTS). THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE MAY BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO OBSERVED INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MOVEMENT AWAY FROM A COOL PATCH OF PREVIOUSLY UPWELLED WATER. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 231655Z CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 231730Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 52 KTS AT 231800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: FORECAST INTENSITIES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD HAVE INCREASED BY ABOUT 20 KNOTS RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONSISTENT WITH CHANGES IN THE NUMERICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE PACKAGE. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TRANSLATIONAL SPEED WILL INCREASE STEADILY AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS. WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASING AND THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER WARMER WATER, STEADY NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, A MORE RESTRICTED OUTFLOW PATTERN AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HALT THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. MODEL DISCUSSION: BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK, PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, REFLECTING THE RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD STEERING PATTERN. IN CONTRAST, INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH HAFS AND COAMPS-TC INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRONOUNCED INTENSIFICATION AT DIFFERENT POINTS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE PREDICTING A SMOOTHER INTENSIFICATION TREND AS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAPID DEVIATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOR A SMALL SYSTEM LIKE TC 06S, SO ADDITIONAL UPDATES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
WTXS32 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 018A CORRECTED// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 018A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 13.5S 91.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 91.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 13.9S 91.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.3S 91.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.0S 90.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.0S 88.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 17.9S 85.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.4S 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.7S 77.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 91.5E. 23JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1185 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z. 2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED 50-KNOT WIND RADII TO ANALYSIS (TAU 00) POSITION.// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-24 08:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0052 UTC 24/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 13.9S Longitude: 91.2E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: southwest (218 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h) Central Pressure: 994 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 110 nm (205 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 24/0600: 14.2S 91.0E: 035 (060): 050 (095): 990 +12: 24/1200: 14.4S 90.8E: 045 (080): 050 (095): 990 +18: 24/1800: 14.6S 90.6E: 050 (095): 055 (100): 987 +24: 25/0000: 14.8S 90.4E: 055 (100): 060 (110): 983 +36: 25/1200: 15.6S 89.4E: 065 (125): 070 (130): 977 +48: 26/0000: 16.6S 87.8E: 080 (150): 070 (130): 978 +60: 26/1200: 17.9S 86.0E: 100 (180): 070 (130): 978 +72: 27/0000: 18.9S 84.2E: 120 (220): 070 (130): 974 +96: 28/0000: 19.7S 80.5E: 160 (300): 070 (130): 974 +120: 29/0000: 21.5S 75.8E: 215 (400): 065 (120): 978 REMARKS: Good position fixes from microwave at 2208 UTC and 1906 UTC. Satellite imagery shows deep convection has shifted to the western semi-circle and deepened in the past 4 hours. Dvorak DT is 3.0 based on curved band of 0.7 in EIR and 85GHz microwave imagery. MET is 3.5 based on a D trend, PAT adjusted to 3.0. FT and CI held at 3.0. Objective aids that are up to date are between 40 and 53 kn (one-minute means). Intensity is set at 45 knots (10-min mean). The environment is partly favourable with low vertical wind shear, SSTs around 28 degrees C along the forecast track and high PW surrounding the centre. However, current SST's may be lower than estimated due to Anggrek moving slowly and mixing cooler water from below. This may change as Anggrek moves faster to the southwest. Also, outflow has weakened despite an upper trough to the southwest and mid-level dry air has wrapped around the periphery of the system. These factors may be temporarily limiting intensification. A period of intensification is forecast by the majority of numerical models. The position of the upper trough is particularly supportive on Wednesday and the start of Thursday and the forecast is for Anggrek to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone (category 3). From Thursday, shear may or may not increase. The forecast has 70 knots from Thursday onwards, however there may be periods of weakening and strengthening during this period. Anggrek is moving slowly south southwest in a gap in the mid-level ridge to its south. A strengthening ridge to the southeast is expected to maintain southwesterly steering flow for the next few days. Anggrek is forecast to move outside of the Australian area of responsibility sometime between 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC 25 January. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0730 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 am January 24 1 13.9S 91.2E 35 +6hr 2 pm January 24 2 14.2S 91.0E 60 +12hr 8 pm January 24 2 14.4S 90.8E 80 +18hr 2 am January 25 2 14.6S 90.6E 95 +24hr 8 am January 25 2 14.8S 90.4E 100 +36hr 8 pm January 25 3 15.6S 89.4E 125 +48hr 8 am January 26 3 16.6S 87.8E 150 +60hr 8 pm January 26 3 17.9S 86.0E 180 +72hr 8 am January 27 3 18.9S 84.2E 220 -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向偏北方向移动
时 间：24日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬13.9度、东经91.2度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：994百帕
参考位置：科科斯群岛西偏南方向约650公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”由8级加强到9级
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向西南方向缓慢移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月24日08时00分）
-
IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0734 UTC 24/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 14.0S Longitude: 91.1E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: southwest (224 deg) Speed of Movement: 1 knots (3 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h) Central Pressure: 992 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (25 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 24/1200: 14.2S 91.1E: 030 (055): 065 (120): 985 +12: 24/1800: 14.4S 90.9E: 040 (075): 075 (140): 977 +18: 25/0000: 14.6S 90.7E: 045 (085): 080 (150): 973 +24: 25/0600: 15.0S 90.2E: 055 (095): 080 (150): 970 +36: 25/1800: 16.0S 88.7E: 060 (110): 085 (155): 967 +48: 26/0600: 17.2S 86.9E: 070 (135): 090 (165): 963 +60: 26/1800: 18.4S 84.9E: 090 (170): 090 (165): 960 +72: 27/0600: 19.2S 83.0E: 115 (210): 085 (155): 963 +96: 28/0600: 20.0S 78.9E: 160 (295): 075 (140): 972 +120: 29/0600: 21.9S 74.6E: 230 (425): 070 (130): 976 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has started rapidly intensifying, has reached category 2 and is expected to reach category 3 in the next 6 hours. Good position fixes from IR and VIS imagery due to the eye pattern. Dvorak DT is 5.0 based on a 3 hour average of an eye pattern. MET/PAT is 4.5 based on a D+ trend. FT and CI restrained to 3.5, which is a 0.5 increase over 6 hours. Objective aids that are up to date are between 42 and 58 kn (one-minute means). Intensity is set at 55 knots (10-min mean). The environment is favourable with low vertical wind shear, SSTs around 28 degrees C along the forecast track and high PW surrounding the centre. Recent SST analyses indicate a cool patch of ~24 degree SST where Anggrek has passed over. With Anggrek moving slightly faster to the southwest this morning, it could have reach some warmed water which has led to the small system rapidly intensifying. Intensification is forecast by the majority of numerical models. The position of the upper trough is particularly supportive on Wednesday and the start of Thursday. From Friday, shear may or may not increase, with shear increasing becoming more likely over the weekend. The upper pattern is complex due to other tropical systems to the west. Anggrek is moving slowly south southwest in a gap in the mid-level ridge to its south. A strengthening ridge to the southeast is expected to maintain southwesterly steering flow for the next few days, with the speed increasing during Thursday. Anggrek is forecast to move outside of the Australian area of responsibility sometime between 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC 25 January. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1330 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 2 pm January 24 2 14.0S 91.1E 30 +6hr 8 pm January 24 3 14.2S 91.1E 55 +12hr 2 am January 25 3 14.4S 90.9E 75 +18hr 8 am January 25 3 14.6S 90.7E 85 +24hr 2 pm January 25 3 15.0S 90.2E 95 +36hr 2 am January 26 3 16.0S 88.7E 110 +48hr 2 pm January 26 4 17.2S 86.9E 135 +60hr 2 am January 27 4 18.4S 84.9E 170 +72hr 2 pm January 27 3 19.2S 83.0E 210 -
WTXS32 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 14.1S 91.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 91.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.5S 90.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.1S 89.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 15.9S 88.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.0S 86.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 19.1S 82.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.4S 77.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 22.6S 73.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 91.0E. 24JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1174 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.1S 91.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1174 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 20 NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LOW RESOLUTION 240714Z N20 ATMS 165 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CIMSS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DEPICT RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A JET TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE MIXED WITH THE RECENT DPRINT ESTIMATE AT 71 KNOTS, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH UNOFFICIAL PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS). INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 54 KTS AT 240227Z CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 240730Z CIMSS DPRINT: 71 KTS AT 240800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DUE TO THE IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) PHASE, TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY TO 90-95 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS BUT COULD EASILY PEAK AT HIGHER VALUES. AFTER TAU 36, SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SST (26-28 C) AND ENTRAINS DRY AIR. HOWEVER, REINTENSIFICATION TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 96 IS LIKELY AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER A POOL OF WARM SST (29C). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THROUGH TAU 48, RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE HAS TRIGGERED, REFLECTING THE IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER MESOSCALE GUIDANCE PEAK VALUES RANGE FROM 67 TO 110 KNOTS. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MESOSCALE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RANGES FROM A PEAK OF 90 TO 135 KNOTS. DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-24 18:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向南偏西方向移动
时 间：24日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬14.0度、东经91.1度
强度等级：二级热带气旋
最大风力：11级（30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：992百帕
参考位置：科科斯群岛西偏南方向约660公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”由8级加强到11级
预报结论：“安格雷克” 将以每小时5-10公里的速度向西南方向缓慢移动，强度变化不大。
图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月24日14时00分）
-
IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1323 UTC 24/01/2024 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 14.1S Longitude: 91.0E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: southwest (224 deg) Speed of Movement: 1 knots (3 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots (120 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots (165 km/h) Central Pressure: 980 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/6HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 24/1800: 14.3S 90.8E: 030 (055): 075 (140): 973 +12: 25/0000: 14.6S 90.6E: 040 (075): 080 (150): 969 +18: 25/0600: 14.9S 90.1E: 045 (085): 080 (150): 970 +24: 25/1200: 15.3S 89.6E: 055 (100): 080 (150): 970 +36: 26/0000: 16.2S 87.9E: 060 (110): 085 (155): 966 +48: 26/1200: 17.2S 86.1E: 080 (145): 090 (165): 962 +60: 27/0000: 18.1S 84.5E: 100 (180): 085 (155): 964 +72: 27/1200: 18.6S 82.7E: 120 (220): 080 (150): 968 +96: 28/1200: 19.6S 78.5E: 160 (295): 070 (130): 976 +120: 29/1200: 22.4S 74.5E: 245 (450): 070 (130): 975 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has been rapidly intensifying and has reached category 3 intensity. Good position fixes from microwave and SAR imagery. A ragged eye has been maintained with surrounding cold tops reaching minus 64degC. Dvorak DT is 5.0 based on the eye pattern. MET=5.0 was based on a D+ trend and PAT was adjusted down to 4.5. FT and CI are also 4.5. Objective aids for 1200 UTC range between 77 and 82 kn (one-minute means). Intensity is set at 65 knots (10-min mean). The environment is favourable with low vertical wind shear, SSTs around 28 degrees C along the forecast track and high PW surrounding the centre. Recent SST analyses indicate a cool patch of ~24 degree SST along the past track where Anggrek has disrupted the thermocline. An outflow channel to the south ahead of an upper trough southwest of the system has supported upper divergence and ventilation. Intensification is forecast by the majority of numerical models. The position of the upper trough is particularly supportive on Thursday and Friday when intensification to category 4 is forecast. From Friday, vertical wind shear forecasts are variable but an increase in shear is likely over the weekend, leading to a gradual weakening trend. The upper pattern is complex due to other tropical systems to the west. Anggrek is moving slowly south southwest in a gap in the mid-level ridge to its south. A strengthening ridge to the southeast is expected to maintain southwesterly steering flow for the next few days, with forward speed increasing during Thursday. Anggrek is forecast to move outside of the Australian area of responsibility sometime between 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC 25 January. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1930 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 pm January 24 3 14.1S 91.0E 30 +6hr 2 am January 25 3 14.3S 90.8E 55 +12hr 8 am January 25 3 14.6S 90.6E 75 +18hr 2 pm January 25 3 14.9S 90.1E 85 +24hr 8 pm January 25 3 15.3S 89.6E 100 +36hr 8 am January 26 3 16.2S 87.9E 110 +48hr 8 pm January 26 4 17.2S 86.1E 145 +60hr 8 am January 27 3 18.1S 84.5E 180 +72hr 8 pm January 27 3 18.6S 82.7E 220 最后于 2024-01-24 21:25:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1938 UTC 24/01/2024 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 14.2S Longitude: 91.1E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: southwest (224 deg) Speed of Movement: 1 knots (3 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h) Central Pressure: 968 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS STT:D1.5/12HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 25/0000: 14.4S 90.7E: 030 (055): 080 (150): 969 +12: 25/0600: 14.7S 90.2E: 040 (075): 085 (155): 965 +18: 25/1200: 15.1S 89.5E: 045 (085): 085 (155): 966 +24: 25/1800: 15.6S 88.7E: 050 (095): 090 (165): 962 +36: 26/0600: 16.7S 86.7E: 065 (120): 090 (165): 963 +48: 26/1800: 17.8S 84.7E: 085 (160): 090 (165): 962 +60: 27/0600: 18.5S 82.8E: 105 (195): 090 (165): 959 +72: 27/1800: 18.8S 80.6E: 125 (230): 090 (165): 960 +96: 28/1800: 19.8S 75.8E: 160 (295): 095 (175): 955 +120: 29/1800: 23.1S 72.2E: 235 (430): 065 (120): 979 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has been rapidly intensifying while drifting slowly south during the past 12 hours. Good position fixes and structure analyses have been obtained from recent scatterometer, microwave and SAR imagery. A ragged eye has been maintained with a surrounding band of cold cloud showing pinwheel structure. Dvorak DT is 5.0 based on the eye pattern, adding 0.5 for a banding feature. MET=4.5 was based on a D+ trend and PAT was adjusted up to 5.0 due to the symmetry of the cloud pattern. FT and CI are also 5.0. Objective aids for around 1800 UTC range between 73 and 94 kn (one-minute means). Intensity is set at 80 knots (10-min mean). The environment is favourable with low vertical wind shear, SSTs around 28 degrees C along the forecast track and high TPW surrounding the centre, although slightly lower TPW air is starting to push into the circulation from the south and west. Anggrek's slow movement has disrupted the thermocline as indicated by lower SSTs (~24 degrees) along its past track. An outflow channel to the south ahead of the upper trough southwest of the system has supported upper divergence and ventilation, assisting with rapid intensification. Further intensification at below the standard rate is forecast by the majority of numerical models as Anggrek moves steadily southwest with intensity likely to peak during the weekend. The upper pattern is complex due to other tropical systems to the west, but a weakening trend likely from early next week. Anggrek is moving slowly south southwest in a gap in the mid-level ridge to its south. A strengthening ridge to the southeast is expected to maintain southwesterly steering flow for the next few days, with forward speed increasing during Thursday. Anggrek is forecast to move outside of the Australian area of responsibility sometime between 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC on Thursday 25 January. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0130 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 2 am January 25 3 14.2S 91.1E 30 +6hr 8 am January 25 3 14.4S 90.7E 55 +12hr 2 pm January 25 3 14.7S 90.2E 75 +18hr 8 pm January 25 3 15.1S 89.5E 85 +24hr 2 am January 26 4 15.6S 88.7E 95 +36hr 2 pm January 26 4 16.7S 86.7E 120 +48hr 2 am January 27 4 17.8S 84.7E 160 +60hr 2 pm January 27 4 18.5S 82.8E 195 +72hr 2 am January 28 4 18.8S 80.6E 230 -
WTXS32 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 020// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 91.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 91.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.0S 90.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 15.9S 88.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.0S 86.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 18.1S 84.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.4S 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.9S 75.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 24.6S 71.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 90.9E. 24JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1180 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241800Z IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 020// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.4S 91.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1180 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (ANGGREK) HAVING RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, EXPOSING A RAGGED EYE NEAR 241430Z. DESPITE RELATIVELY SLOW TRACK SPEED (1-3 KTS), TC ANGGREK HAS TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY LOW (0-5 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY HAS ALSO CAPTURED THE TC EXPERIENCING TROCHOIDAL MOTION ALONG THE SOUTHWARD TRACK, WITH THE EYE FEATURE WOBBLING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN METSAT EIR IMAGERY AT 241800Z, MEASURING 26NM IN DIAMETER WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 7.8C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS APRF: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 74 KTS AT 241845Z CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 241845Z CIMSS AIDT: 82KTS AT 241845Z CIMSS DPRINT: 80KTS AT 241900Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, FURTHER INTENSIFYING ALONG-TRACK AS TRACK SPEEDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND NEGATE UPWELLING OF COOLER OCEAN WATERS THAT MAY BE CURRENTLY RESTRAINING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY TURN TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE SOUTH UNTIL TAU 96 WHEN THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR, AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST INTERVAL. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF TC 06S. INTENSITY GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, IS IN MODERATE DISAGREEMENT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, A VERY TIGHT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 33NM IS PRESENT AT TAU 72 BETWEEN THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TRACK FORECAST IS IN TRACK SPEEDS, WITH THE JTWC CONSENSUS SHOWING A 263NM ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A RATHER LARGE SPREAD AMONG CONSENSUS MEMBERS, WITH THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY PRESENT AT TAU 84 WITH A 60 KNOT SPREAD BETWEEN GFS AND COAMPS-TC. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
-
IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0126 UTC 25/01/2024 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 14.9S Longitude: 90.7E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: southwest (224 deg) Speed of Movement: 6 knots (10 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h) Central Pressure: 970 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/12HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 25/0600: 15.2S 90.2E: 035 (060): 085 (155): 965 +12: 25/1200: 15.7S 89.6E: 040 (080): 085 (155): 966 +18: 25/1800: 16.2S 88.6E: 045 (085): 090 (165): 962 +24: 26/0000: 16.7S 87.7E: 050 (090): 090 (165): 962 +36: 26/1200: 17.8S 85.6E: 060 (110): 090 (165): 963 +48: 27/0000: 18.8S 83.6E: 075 (140): 095 (175): 955 +60: 27/1200: 19.4S 81.3E: 095 (180): 095 (175): 955 +72: 28/0000: 19.9S 78.7E: 115 (210): 095 (175): 955 +96: 29/0000: 22.2S 73.1E: 160 (295): 090 (165): 959 +120: 30/0000: 26.7S 70.8E: 230 (425): 070 (130): 973 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has temporarily stalled in its intensification but further intensification is forecast. Position based on a 2112 UTC SSMIS microwave image a satellite images. Satellite imagery in the last 6 hours has shown an asymetric structure with strengths and weaknesses in the western and eastern sides of the tropical cyclone, resulting in at times a ragged and elongated eye. Dvorak DT is 4.0 based on an OW eye surrounded by DG for an E-number of 4.5, with 0.5 subtracted for an elongated eye. MET is 4.0 based on a D trend and PAT is unadjusted. FT is 4.0 based DT and CI is held higher at 5.0. Objective aids for around 0000 UTC range between 74 and 92 kn (one-minute means). Intensity is held at 80 knots (10-min mean). The general environment is favourable with low vertical wind shear, good outflow to the south, SSTs around 28 degrees C along the forecast track and high TPW surrounding the centre. Further intensification at below the standard rate is forecast by the majority of numerical models as Anggrek moves steadily southwest with intensity likely to peak during the weekend. The upper pattern next week is complex due to other tropical systems to the west, but a weakening trend is expected from early next week. A strengthening mid-level ridge to the south will maintain southwesterly steering flow for the next few days, with forward speed increasing during the next 24 hours. Anggrek is forecast to move outside of the Australian area of responsibility sometime between 0600 UTC and 1200 UTC on Thursday 25 January. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0730 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 am January 25 3 14.9S 90.7E 35 +6hr 2 pm January 25 3 15.2S 90.2E 60 +12hr 8 pm January 25 3 15.7S 89.6E 80 +18hr 2 am January 26 4 16.2S 88.6E 85 +24hr 8 am January 26 4 16.7S 87.7E 90 +36hr 8 pm January 26 4 17.8S 85.6E 110 +48hr 8 am January 27 4 18.8S 83.6E 140 +60hr 8 pm January 27 4 19.4S 81.3E 180 +72hr 8 am January 28 4 19.9S 78.7E 210 最后于 2024-01-25 09:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：