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IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1323 UTC 24/01/2024 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 14.1S Longitude: 91.0E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: southwest (224 deg) Speed of Movement: 1 knots (3 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots (120 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots (165 km/h) Central Pressure: 980 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/6HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 24/1800: 14.3S 90.8E: 030 (055): 075 (140): 973 +12: 25/0000: 14.6S 90.6E: 040 (075): 080 (150): 969 +18: 25/0600: 14.9S 90.1E: 045 (085): 080 (150): 970 +24: 25/1200: 15.3S 89.6E: 055 (100): 080 (150): 970 +36: 26/0000: 16.2S 87.9E: 060 (110): 085 (155): 966 +48: 26/1200: 17.2S 86.1E: 080 (145): 090 (165): 962 +60: 27/0000: 18.1S 84.5E: 100 (180): 085 (155): 964 +72: 27/1200: 18.6S 82.7E: 120 (220): 080 (150): 968 +96: 28/1200: 19.6S 78.5E: 160 (295): 070 (130): 976 +120: 29/1200: 22.4S 74.5E: 245 (450): 070 (130): 975 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has been rapidly intensifying and has reached category 3 intensity. Good position fixes from microwave and SAR imagery. A ragged eye has been maintained with surrounding cold tops reaching minus 64degC. Dvorak DT is 5.0 based on the eye pattern. MET=5.0 was based on a D+ trend and PAT was adjusted down to 4.5. FT and CI are also 4.5. Objective aids for 1200 UTC range between 77 and 82 kn (one-minute means). Intensity is set at 65 knots (10-min mean). The environment is favourable with low vertical wind shear, SSTs around 28 degrees C along the forecast track and high PW surrounding the centre. Recent SST analyses indicate a cool patch of ~24 degree SST along the past track where Anggrek has disrupted the thermocline. An outflow channel to the south ahead of an upper trough southwest of the system has supported upper divergence and ventilation. Intensification is forecast by the majority of numerical models. The position of the upper trough is particularly supportive on Thursday and Friday when intensification to category 4 is forecast. From Friday, vertical wind shear forecasts are variable but an increase in shear is likely over the weekend, leading to a gradual weakening trend. The upper pattern is complex due to other tropical systems to the west. Anggrek is moving slowly south southwest in a gap in the mid-level ridge to its south. A strengthening ridge to the southeast is expected to maintain southwesterly steering flow for the next few days, with forward speed increasing during Thursday. Anggrek is forecast to move outside of the Australian area of responsibility sometime between 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC 25 January. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1930 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 pm January 24 3 14.1S 91.0E 30 +6hr 2 am January 25 3 14.3S 90.8E 55 +12hr 8 am January 25 3 14.6S 90.6E 75 +18hr 2 pm January 25 3 14.9S 90.1E 85 +24hr 8 pm January 25 3 15.3S 89.6E 100 +36hr 8 am January 26 3 16.2S 87.9E 110 +48hr 8 pm January 26 4 17.2S 86.1E 145 +60hr 8 am January 27 3 18.1S 84.5E 180 +72hr 8 pm January 27 3 18.6S 82.7E 220 最后于 2024-01-24 21:25:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1938 UTC 24/01/2024 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 14.2S Longitude: 91.1E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: southwest (224 deg) Speed of Movement: 1 knots (3 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h) Central Pressure: 968 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS STT:D1.5/12HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 25/0000: 14.4S 90.7E: 030 (055): 080 (150): 969 +12: 25/0600: 14.7S 90.2E: 040 (075): 085 (155): 965 +18: 25/1200: 15.1S 89.5E: 045 (085): 085 (155): 966 +24: 25/1800: 15.6S 88.7E: 050 (095): 090 (165): 962 +36: 26/0600: 16.7S 86.7E: 065 (120): 090 (165): 963 +48: 26/1800: 17.8S 84.7E: 085 (160): 090 (165): 962 +60: 27/0600: 18.5S 82.8E: 105 (195): 090 (165): 959 +72: 27/1800: 18.8S 80.6E: 125 (230): 090 (165): 960 +96: 28/1800: 19.8S 75.8E: 160 (295): 095 (175): 955 +120: 29/1800: 23.1S 72.2E: 235 (430): 065 (120): 979 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has been rapidly intensifying while drifting slowly south during the past 12 hours. Good position fixes and structure analyses have been obtained from recent scatterometer, microwave and SAR imagery. A ragged eye has been maintained with a surrounding band of cold cloud showing pinwheel structure. Dvorak DT is 5.0 based on the eye pattern, adding 0.5 for a banding feature. MET=4.5 was based on a D+ trend and PAT was adjusted up to 5.0 due to the symmetry of the cloud pattern. FT and CI are also 5.0. Objective aids for around 1800 UTC range between 73 and 94 kn (one-minute means). Intensity is set at 80 knots (10-min mean). The environment is favourable with low vertical wind shear, SSTs around 28 degrees C along the forecast track and high TPW surrounding the centre, although slightly lower TPW air is starting to push into the circulation from the south and west. Anggrek's slow movement has disrupted the thermocline as indicated by lower SSTs (~24 degrees) along its past track. An outflow channel to the south ahead of the upper trough southwest of the system has supported upper divergence and ventilation, assisting with rapid intensification. Further intensification at below the standard rate is forecast by the majority of numerical models as Anggrek moves steadily southwest with intensity likely to peak during the weekend. The upper pattern is complex due to other tropical systems to the west, but a weakening trend likely from early next week. Anggrek is moving slowly south southwest in a gap in the mid-level ridge to its south. A strengthening ridge to the southeast is expected to maintain southwesterly steering flow for the next few days, with forward speed increasing during Thursday. Anggrek is forecast to move outside of the Australian area of responsibility sometime between 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC on Thursday 25 January. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0130 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 2 am January 25 3 14.2S 91.1E 30 +6hr 8 am January 25 3 14.4S 90.7E 55 +12hr 2 pm January 25 3 14.7S 90.2E 75 +18hr 8 pm January 25 3 15.1S 89.5E 85 +24hr 2 am January 26 4 15.6S 88.7E 95 +36hr 2 pm January 26 4 16.7S 86.7E 120 +48hr 2 am January 27 4 17.8S 84.7E 160 +60hr 2 pm January 27 4 18.5S 82.8E 195 +72hr 2 am January 28 4 18.8S 80.6E 230 -
WTXS32 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 020// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 91.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 91.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.0S 90.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 15.9S 88.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.0S 86.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 18.1S 84.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.4S 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.9S 75.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 24.6S 71.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 90.9E. 24JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1180 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241800Z IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 020// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.4S 91.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1180 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (ANGGREK) HAVING RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, EXPOSING A RAGGED EYE NEAR 241430Z. DESPITE RELATIVELY SLOW TRACK SPEED (1-3 KTS), TC ANGGREK HAS TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY LOW (0-5 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY HAS ALSO CAPTURED THE TC EXPERIENCING TROCHOIDAL MOTION ALONG THE SOUTHWARD TRACK, WITH THE EYE FEATURE WOBBLING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN METSAT EIR IMAGERY AT 241800Z, MEASURING 26NM IN DIAMETER WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 7.8C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS APRF: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 74 KTS AT 241845Z CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 241845Z CIMSS AIDT: 82KTS AT 241845Z CIMSS DPRINT: 80KTS AT 241900Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, FURTHER INTENSIFYING ALONG-TRACK AS TRACK SPEEDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND NEGATE UPWELLING OF COOLER OCEAN WATERS THAT MAY BE CURRENTLY RESTRAINING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY TURN TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE SOUTH UNTIL TAU 96 WHEN THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR, AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST INTERVAL. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF TC 06S. INTENSITY GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, IS IN MODERATE DISAGREEMENT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, A VERY TIGHT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 33NM IS PRESENT AT TAU 72 BETWEEN THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TRACK FORECAST IS IN TRACK SPEEDS, WITH THE JTWC CONSENSUS SHOWING A 263NM ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A RATHER LARGE SPREAD AMONG CONSENSUS MEMBERS, WITH THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY PRESENT AT TAU 84 WITH A 60 KNOT SPREAD BETWEEN GFS AND COAMPS-TC. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
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IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0126 UTC 25/01/2024 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 14.9S Longitude: 90.7E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: southwest (224 deg) Speed of Movement: 6 knots (10 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h) Central Pressure: 970 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/12HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 25/0600: 15.2S 90.2E: 035 (060): 085 (155): 965 +12: 25/1200: 15.7S 89.6E: 040 (080): 085 (155): 966 +18: 25/1800: 16.2S 88.6E: 045 (085): 090 (165): 962 +24: 26/0000: 16.7S 87.7E: 050 (090): 090 (165): 962 +36: 26/1200: 17.8S 85.6E: 060 (110): 090 (165): 963 +48: 27/0000: 18.8S 83.6E: 075 (140): 095 (175): 955 +60: 27/1200: 19.4S 81.3E: 095 (180): 095 (175): 955 +72: 28/0000: 19.9S 78.7E: 115 (210): 095 (175): 955 +96: 29/0000: 22.2S 73.1E: 160 (295): 090 (165): 959 +120: 30/0000: 26.7S 70.8E: 230 (425): 070 (130): 973 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has temporarily stalled in its intensification but further intensification is forecast. Position based on a 2112 UTC SSMIS microwave image a satellite images. Satellite imagery in the last 6 hours has shown an asymetric structure with strengths and weaknesses in the western and eastern sides of the tropical cyclone, resulting in at times a ragged and elongated eye. Dvorak DT is 4.0 based on an OW eye surrounded by DG for an E-number of 4.5, with 0.5 subtracted for an elongated eye. MET is 4.0 based on a D trend and PAT is unadjusted. FT is 4.0 based DT and CI is held higher at 5.0. Objective aids for around 0000 UTC range between 74 and 92 kn (one-minute means). Intensity is held at 80 knots (10-min mean). The general environment is favourable with low vertical wind shear, good outflow to the south, SSTs around 28 degrees C along the forecast track and high TPW surrounding the centre. Further intensification at below the standard rate is forecast by the majority of numerical models as Anggrek moves steadily southwest with intensity likely to peak during the weekend. The upper pattern next week is complex due to other tropical systems to the west, but a weakening trend is expected from early next week. A strengthening mid-level ridge to the south will maintain southwesterly steering flow for the next few days, with forward speed increasing during the next 24 hours. Anggrek is forecast to move outside of the Australian area of responsibility sometime between 0600 UTC and 1200 UTC on Thursday 25 January. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0730 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 am January 25 3 14.9S 90.7E 35 +6hr 2 pm January 25 3 15.2S 90.2E 60 +12hr 8 pm January 25 3 15.7S 89.6E 80 +18hr 2 am January 26 4 16.2S 88.6E 85 +24hr 8 am January 26 4 16.7S 87.7E 90 +36hr 8 pm January 26 4 17.8S 85.6E 110 +48hr 8 am January 27 4 18.8S 83.6E 140 +60hr 8 pm January 27 4 19.4S 81.3E 180 +72hr 8 am January 28 4 19.9S 78.7E 210 最后于 2024-01-25 09:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向西偏南方向移动
时 间：25日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬14.9度、东经90.7度
强度等级：三级强热带气旋
最大风力：14级（42米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：970百帕
参考位置：科科斯群岛西偏南方向约740公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”由9级加强到14级
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西南方向移动，强度逐渐加强。
图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月25日08时00分）
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IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0726 UTC 25/01/2024 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 15.1S Longitude: 90.1E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (251 deg) Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots (140 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots (195 km/h) Central Pressure: 974 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 25/1200: 15.6S 89.4E: 030 (055): 080 (150): 971 +12: 25/1800: 16.1S 88.5E: 040 (070): 085 (155): 967 +18: 26/0000: 16.6S 87.5E: 045 (085): 090 (165): 962 +24: 26/0600: 17.1S 86.5E: 050 (090): 095 (175): 958 +36: 26/1800: 18.3S 84.4E: 055 (105): 095 (175): 955 +48: 27/0600: 19.1S 82.2E: 075 (140): 095 (175): 955 +60: 27/1800: 19.6S 79.7E: 095 (175): 095 (175): 955 +72: 28/0600: 20.3S 76.8E: 115 (215): 095 (175): 955 +96: 29/0600: 23.4S 71.3E: 175 (325): 085 (155): 963 +120: 30/0600: 27.9S 70.6E: 240 (445): 065 (120): 977 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has temporarily stalled in its intensification although recent satellite imagery suggests another intensification is just beginning. Position is good based on a 0301 UTC AMSU-B 89 GHz microwave image and satellite images. Satellite imagery in the last 6 hours has shown inconsistent deep convection around the low level centre with an elongated eye appearing at times and at other times no eye due to a weakness in the convection on the southeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates have been a combination of eye pattern and curved band. In the last 3 hours a curved band of 0.8-1.2 gives a DT of 3.5-4.0. Also the satellite image at 0600 UTC showed the reemergence of an OW eye surrounded by LG for an E-number of 5.0, with 0.5 subtracted for an elongated eye to give a DT of 4.5. MET is 3.0 based on a W- trend and PAT is adjusted to 3.5. FT is based on an average DT of 4.0 and CI is held higher at 4.5. Objective aids have lowered slightly and those available around 0600 UTC range between 66 and 84 kn (one-minute means). Intensity is lowered to 75 knots (10-min mean). The general environment is favourable with low vertical wind shear, good outflow to the south, SSTs around 28 degrees C along the forecast track and high TPW surrounding the centre. The forecast intensity is based on a standard development rate for the next 24 hours reaching a peak of 95 knots, then intensity plateaus as outflow decreases and dry air begins to surround the system. However given the small size of Anggrek a higher peak intensity is possible. The upper pattern next week is complex due to Tropical Storm Candice to the west, but a weakening trend is expected from early next week. A strengthening mid-level ridge to the south will maintain southwesterly steering flow for the next few days, with forward speed increasing during the next 24 hours. Anggrek is forecast to move outside of the Australian area of responsibility within the next 6 hours. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == There will be no further bulletins for this system.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 2 pm January 25 3 15.1S 90.1E 30 +6hr 8 pm January 25 3 15.6S 89.4E 55 +12hr 2 am January 26 3 16.1S 88.5E 70 +18hr 8 am January 26 4 16.6S 87.5E 85 +24hr 2 pm January 26 4 17.1S 86.5E 90 +36hr 2 am January 27 4 18.3S 84.4E 105 +48hr 2 pm January 27 4 19.1S 82.2E 140 +60hr 2 am January 28 4 19.6S 79.7E 175 +72hr 2 pm January 28 4 20.3S 76.8E 215 最后于 2024-01-25 15:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS32 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 15.1S 90.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 90.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.1S 88.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.1S 86.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 18.1S 84.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 18.8S 82.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.1S 77.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 22.9S 72.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 26.0S 71.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 89.6E. 25JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1130 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250600Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.1S 90.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1130 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S TRACKING SOUTHWEST AT 09KTS. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING IN A REGION OF LOW SHEAR (5-10KTS) AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 27-28 C. CLOUD TOPS AT THE UPPER LEVELS ARE AS COLD AS -80C. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS DRIVING THE STORM TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SOUTH THAT APPEARS TO BE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS DETERMINED VIA MSI AND AN EXTRAPOLATED 0310Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING MODEST CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DETERMINED BASED ON AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES AND WAS CONFIRMED BY A 2331Z SAR RCM-3 PASS DEPICTING UP TO 80KT WINDS, PREDOMINANTLY IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS APRF: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS ADT: 84 KTS AT 0645Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, BEFORE TURNING ONTO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. FROM TAU 72 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CURVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE INTENSITY OF TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE STEADILY TO 105KTS THROUGH TAU 72 AS WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW (5-10KTS), AND SST WILL BE FAVORABLE (27-28C), AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS SHEAR PICKS UP SLIGHTLY (10-15KTS) AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR INTRUDES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. BY TAU 120, TC 06S IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE A MORE RAPID DROP IN INTENSITY AS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TO APPROXIMATELY 20KTS AND DECAPITATE THE STORM'S VORTEX AT THE MID-LEVELS. COUPLED WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, THE STORM IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 80KTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WILL TRANSIT SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A CROSS-TRACK DEVIATION OF ONLY 70NM. BEYOND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM OPENS APPROXIMATELY 300NM, SHOWING JTWC CONSENSUS DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STARKLY THE STORM WILL CUT TO THE WEST AS INFLUENCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE CROSS-TRACK DEVIATION WILL OPEN TO 470NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS ECMWF ANTICIPATES THE RIDGE INFLUENCING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WHILE GFS EXPECTS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT TAU 72 AND GRADUALLY DECLINE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER THE INTENSITY OF THAT PEAK VARIES GREATLY DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. THE COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM VERSION) FORECASTS AN UNREASONABLE 135KTS AT ITS MAXIMUM, WHILE JTWC SHIPS GUIDANCE EXPECTS A PEAK OF 95KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-25 18:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向西偏南方向移动
时 间：25日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬15.1度、东经90.1度
强度等级：三级强热带气旋
最大风力：13级（38米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）
中心气压：974百帕
参考位置：科科斯群岛西偏南方向约800公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”由11级加强到13级
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度变化不大。
图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月25日14时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 251427 CCA ***************CORRECTIVE************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/4/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/25 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 89.4 E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/26 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 87.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 72H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/29 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65 120H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 80 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 80 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=4.0 CI=4.5 THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ANGGREK, MONITORED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS BY THE AUSTRALIAN WEATHER SERVICE, ENTERED OUR BASIN TODAY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY AFTER 08 UTC, AND SHOWED AN EYE PATTERN THAT HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE SSMIS F18 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0949Z AND THE 0803Z AMSR2 SHOW A PARTICULARLY ROBUST 89GHZ CENTRAL CORE. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE THE NETWORK, A HOT SPOT SEEMS TO BE BUILDING UP AGAIN, AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN EYE PATTERN MAY ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON THE ADJUSTED MET POINTING TO A PT OF 4 WITH A CI OF 4.5. THIS ANALYSIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES FROM CIMSS (AIDT/ADT), PROVIDING A CI AROUND 4.5+. IN TERMS OF TRACK, AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS CARRIED BY HIGH TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK WILL THUS EVOLVE IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. FROM SUNDAY, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARDS, PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH-WEST. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK IS EXPERIENCING EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD BRING IT TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TOMORROW. ANGGREK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY INTENSE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK, AND MAY EVEN REACH THE STAGE OF VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY, DESPITE A SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, THE EFFECTIVENESS OF WHICH IS COUNTERBALANCED BY THE SYSTEM'S RAPID WESTWARD MOVEMENT. EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANGGREK SHOULD ENTER A MORE OR LESS RAPID PHASE OF WEAKENING, DUE TO LESS AND LESS OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND ABOVE ALL TO PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHEAR, GRADUALLY BECOMING CROSS-CUTTING. FORECASTING INTENSITY IS MADE DIFFICULT BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH COULD FLUCTUATE DUE TO INTERNAL MECHANISMS (NOTABLY THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE). TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
最后于 2024-01-25 22:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 251838 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/4/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/25 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 88.5 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/26 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/26 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 72H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65 120H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 80 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 80 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=5.0 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION HAS IMPROVED. COOLER CONVECTION MORE CLEARLY SURROUNDS THE EMERGING EYE. THIS IS A SIGN OF INTENSIFICATION FOR ANGGREK, CONFIRMED BY THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF DVORAK ANALYSIS. AN EYE ANALYSIS GIVES A 6-HOUR T OF 5.0, I.E. ESTIMATED WINDS OF AROUND 80KT. OVER A SHORTER PERIOD, THE VALUE COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. THE SYSTEM REMAINS SMALL IN SIZE, AND WE SHALL HAVE TO KEEP AN ATTENTIVE LOOK AT THE EVOLUTION OF ITS STRUCTURE TO DETECT ANY REPLACEMENT CYCLES OF THE EYE WALL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS CARRIED BY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK WILL THUS EVOLVE IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. AS THE RIDGE SWELLS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN OUT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARDS, PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHWEST. WITH THE DIRECTING FLOW WELL DEFINED, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY GOOD IN DIRECTOIN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SPEED AT WHICH IT WILL MOVE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD BRING IT TO THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK, DESPITE A SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR STRESS, THE EFFECTIVENESS OF WHICH IS COUNTERBALANCED BY THE SYSTEM'S RAPID WESTWARD MOVEMENT. HOWEVER, FORECASTING INTENSITY IS MADE DIFFICULT BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH COULD FLUCTUATE DUE TO INTERNAL MECHANISMS (EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE). DURING THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES, ANGGREK COULD SHOW A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR, WHICH COULD PENETRATE FURTHER INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE. WITHOUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THESE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO STRUCTURAL CHANGES, EARLY NEXT WEEK ANGGREK SHOULD ENTER A MORE OR LESS RAPID PHASE OF WEAKENING, DUE TO LESS AND LESS ENERGETIC SURFACE WATERS AND, ABOVE ALL, TO A PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR, GRADUALLY BECOMING CROSS-CUTTING. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
