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全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向西偏南方向移动
时 间：25日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬14.9度、东经90.7度
强度等级：三级强热带气旋
最大风力：14级（42米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：970百帕
参考位置：科科斯群岛西偏南方向约740公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”由9级加强到14级
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西南方向移动，强度逐渐加强。
图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月25日08时00分）
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IDW27700 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0726 UTC 25/01/2024 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Identifier: 04U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 15.1S Longitude: 90.1E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (251 deg) Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots (140 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots (195 km/h) Central Pressure: 974 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 25/1200: 15.6S 89.4E: 030 (055): 080 (150): 971 +12: 25/1800: 16.1S 88.5E: 040 (070): 085 (155): 967 +18: 26/0000: 16.6S 87.5E: 045 (085): 090 (165): 962 +24: 26/0600: 17.1S 86.5E: 050 (090): 095 (175): 958 +36: 26/1800: 18.3S 84.4E: 055 (105): 095 (175): 955 +48: 27/0600: 19.1S 82.2E: 075 (140): 095 (175): 955 +60: 27/1800: 19.6S 79.7E: 095 (175): 095 (175): 955 +72: 28/0600: 20.3S 76.8E: 115 (215): 095 (175): 955 +96: 29/0600: 23.4S 71.3E: 175 (325): 085 (155): 963 +120: 30/0600: 27.9S 70.6E: 240 (445): 065 (120): 977 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has temporarily stalled in its intensification although recent satellite imagery suggests another intensification is just beginning. Position is good based on a 0301 UTC AMSU-B 89 GHz microwave image and satellite images. Satellite imagery in the last 6 hours has shown inconsistent deep convection around the low level centre with an elongated eye appearing at times and at other times no eye due to a weakness in the convection on the southeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates have been a combination of eye pattern and curved band. In the last 3 hours a curved band of 0.8-1.2 gives a DT of 3.5-4.0. Also the satellite image at 0600 UTC showed the reemergence of an OW eye surrounded by LG for an E-number of 5.0, with 0.5 subtracted for an elongated eye to give a DT of 4.5. MET is 3.0 based on a W- trend and PAT is adjusted to 3.5. FT is based on an average DT of 4.0 and CI is held higher at 4.5. Objective aids have lowered slightly and those available around 0600 UTC range between 66 and 84 kn (one-minute means). Intensity is lowered to 75 knots (10-min mean). The general environment is favourable with low vertical wind shear, good outflow to the south, SSTs around 28 degrees C along the forecast track and high TPW surrounding the centre. The forecast intensity is based on a standard development rate for the next 24 hours reaching a peak of 95 knots, then intensity plateaus as outflow decreases and dry air begins to surround the system. However given the small size of Anggrek a higher peak intensity is possible. The upper pattern next week is complex due to Tropical Storm Candice to the west, but a weakening trend is expected from early next week. A strengthening mid-level ridge to the south will maintain southwesterly steering flow for the next few days, with forward speed increasing during the next 24 hours. Anggrek is forecast to move outside of the Australian area of responsibility within the next 6 hours. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == There will be no further bulletins for this system.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 2 pm January 25 3 15.1S 90.1E 30 +6hr 8 pm January 25 3 15.6S 89.4E 55 +12hr 2 am January 26 3 16.1S 88.5E 70 +18hr 8 am January 26 4 16.6S 87.5E 85 +24hr 2 pm January 26 4 17.1S 86.5E 90 +36hr 2 am January 27 4 18.3S 84.4E 105 +48hr 2 pm January 27 4 19.1S 82.2E 140 +60hr 2 am January 28 4 19.6S 79.7E 175 +72hr 2 pm January 28 4 20.3S 76.8E 215 最后于 2024-01-25 15:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS32 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 15.1S 90.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 90.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.1S 88.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.1S 86.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 18.1S 84.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 18.8S 82.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.1S 77.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 22.9S 72.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 26.0S 71.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 89.6E. 25JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1130 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250600Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.1S 90.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1130 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S TRACKING SOUTHWEST AT 09KTS. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING IN A REGION OF LOW SHEAR (5-10KTS) AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 27-28 C. CLOUD TOPS AT THE UPPER LEVELS ARE AS COLD AS -80C. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS DRIVING THE STORM TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SOUTH THAT APPEARS TO BE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS DETERMINED VIA MSI AND AN EXTRAPOLATED 0310Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING MODEST CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DETERMINED BASED ON AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES AND WAS CONFIRMED BY A 2331Z SAR RCM-3 PASS DEPICTING UP TO 80KT WINDS, PREDOMINANTLY IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS APRF: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS ADT: 84 KTS AT 0645Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, BEFORE TURNING ONTO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. FROM TAU 72 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CURVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE INTENSITY OF TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE STEADILY TO 105KTS THROUGH TAU 72 AS WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW (5-10KTS), AND SST WILL BE FAVORABLE (27-28C), AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS SHEAR PICKS UP SLIGHTLY (10-15KTS) AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR INTRUDES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. BY TAU 120, TC 06S IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE A MORE RAPID DROP IN INTENSITY AS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TO APPROXIMATELY 20KTS AND DECAPITATE THE STORM'S VORTEX AT THE MID-LEVELS. COUPLED WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, THE STORM IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 80KTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WILL TRANSIT SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A CROSS-TRACK DEVIATION OF ONLY 70NM. BEYOND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM OPENS APPROXIMATELY 300NM, SHOWING JTWC CONSENSUS DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STARKLY THE STORM WILL CUT TO THE WEST AS INFLUENCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE CROSS-TRACK DEVIATION WILL OPEN TO 470NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS ECMWF ANTICIPATES THE RIDGE INFLUENCING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WHILE GFS EXPECTS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT TAU 72 AND GRADUALLY DECLINE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER THE INTENSITY OF THAT PEAK VARIES GREATLY DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. THE COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM VERSION) FORECASTS AN UNREASONABLE 135KTS AT ITS MAXIMUM, WHILE JTWC SHIPS GUIDANCE EXPECTS A PEAK OF 95KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-25 18:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向西偏南方向移动
时 间：25日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬15.1度、东经90.1度
强度等级：三级强热带气旋
最大风力：13级（38米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）
中心气压：974百帕
参考位置：科科斯群岛西偏南方向约800公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”由11级加强到13级
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度变化不大。
图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月25日14时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 251427 CCA ***************CORRECTIVE************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/4/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/25 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 89.4 E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/26 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 87.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 72H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/29 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65 120H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 80 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 80 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=4.0 CI=4.5 THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ANGGREK, MONITORED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS BY THE AUSTRALIAN WEATHER SERVICE, ENTERED OUR BASIN TODAY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY AFTER 08 UTC, AND SHOWED AN EYE PATTERN THAT HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE SSMIS F18 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0949Z AND THE 0803Z AMSR2 SHOW A PARTICULARLY ROBUST 89GHZ CENTRAL CORE. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE THE NETWORK, A HOT SPOT SEEMS TO BE BUILDING UP AGAIN, AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN EYE PATTERN MAY ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON THE ADJUSTED MET POINTING TO A PT OF 4 WITH A CI OF 4.5. THIS ANALYSIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES FROM CIMSS (AIDT/ADT), PROVIDING A CI AROUND 4.5+. IN TERMS OF TRACK, AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS CARRIED BY HIGH TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK WILL THUS EVOLVE IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. FROM SUNDAY, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARDS, PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH-WEST. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK IS EXPERIENCING EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD BRING IT TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TOMORROW. ANGGREK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY INTENSE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK, AND MAY EVEN REACH THE STAGE OF VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY, DESPITE A SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, THE EFFECTIVENESS OF WHICH IS COUNTERBALANCED BY THE SYSTEM'S RAPID WESTWARD MOVEMENT. EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANGGREK SHOULD ENTER A MORE OR LESS RAPID PHASE OF WEAKENING, DUE TO LESS AND LESS OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND ABOVE ALL TO PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHEAR, GRADUALLY BECOMING CROSS-CUTTING. FORECASTING INTENSITY IS MADE DIFFICULT BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH COULD FLUCTUATE DUE TO INTERNAL MECHANISMS (NOTABLY THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE). TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
最后于 2024-01-25 22:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 251838 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/4/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/25 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 88.5 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/26 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/26 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 60H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 72H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65 120H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 80 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 80 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=5.0 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION HAS IMPROVED. COOLER CONVECTION MORE CLEARLY SURROUNDS THE EMERGING EYE. THIS IS A SIGN OF INTENSIFICATION FOR ANGGREK, CONFIRMED BY THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF DVORAK ANALYSIS. AN EYE ANALYSIS GIVES A 6-HOUR T OF 5.0, I.E. ESTIMATED WINDS OF AROUND 80KT. OVER A SHORTER PERIOD, THE VALUE COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. THE SYSTEM REMAINS SMALL IN SIZE, AND WE SHALL HAVE TO KEEP AN ATTENTIVE LOOK AT THE EVOLUTION OF ITS STRUCTURE TO DETECT ANY REPLACEMENT CYCLES OF THE EYE WALL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS CARRIED BY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK WILL THUS EVOLVE IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. AS THE RIDGE SWELLS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN OUT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARDS, PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHWEST. WITH THE DIRECTING FLOW WELL DEFINED, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY GOOD IN DIRECTOIN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SPEED AT WHICH IT WILL MOVE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD BRING IT TO THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK, DESPITE A SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR STRESS, THE EFFECTIVENESS OF WHICH IS COUNTERBALANCED BY THE SYSTEM'S RAPID WESTWARD MOVEMENT. HOWEVER, FORECASTING INTENSITY IS MADE DIFFICULT BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH COULD FLUCTUATE DUE TO INTERNAL MECHANISMS (EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE). DURING THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES, ANGGREK COULD SHOW A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR, WHICH COULD PENETRATE FURTHER INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE. WITHOUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THESE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO STRUCTURAL CHANGES, EARLY NEXT WEEK ANGGREK SHOULD ENTER A MORE OR LESS RAPID PHASE OF WEAKENING, DUE TO LESS AND LESS ENERGETIC SURFACE WATERS AND, ABOVE ALL, TO A PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR, GRADUALLY BECOMING CROSS-CUTTING. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
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WTXS32 PGTW 252100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 022// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 022 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 88.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 88.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.1S 86.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 18.2S 84.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 19.0S 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.6S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 21.7S 72.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 25.9S 69.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 28.2S 70.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 87.9E. 25JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1064 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251800Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 252100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 022// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.0S 88.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1064 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (ANGGREK) SHOWING INDICATIONS OF INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING OF THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE ONCE RAGGED EYE HAS TIGHTENED AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC, MEASURING 16NM IN DIAMETER WITH TEMPERATURE OF MINUS 19C. ONCE EVIDENT SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO AND UNDER A VERY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CANOPY OVERHEAD, MEASURING 240 NM IN DIAMETER. A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (0-5KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), MODERATE (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW LEAVES ROOM FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF TC 06S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIPLE GEOSTATIONARY EIR SATELLITE IMAGES OF 251800Z SHOWING A CLEARLY DEFINED EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 251232Z RCM2 SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR IMAGE AND THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER STR TO THE SOUTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 79 KTS AT 251815Z CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 251815Z CIMSS AIDT: 87 KTS AT 251900Z CIMSS DPRINT: 86 KTS AT 251815Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 72. THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG-TRACK IS ANTICIPATED TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 120KTS BY TAU 72. FOLLOWING TAU 72, TC 06S WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC AND TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO TAU 96, ROUNDING THE APEX OF THE STR NEAR TAU 120. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH BEYOND TAU 72, SEA SURFACE TEMPS FALL SHARPLY FROM 29C AT TAU 72 TO 25C BY TAU 120 AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO CURTAIL ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FROM OCCURRING. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL TRACK AGREEMENT FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 72, AND GOOD AGREEMENT THEREAFTER. A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 83NM AT TAU 72 AND 420NM LEAVES MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAU (TAU 72 TO TAU 120). INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, SUGGESTS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR UNTIL NEAR TAU 72, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF NEAR 120KTS. THE SPREAD OBSERVED IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE OF 70KTS IS MAXIMIZED AT THIS INTERVAL, LEAVING MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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WTIO30 FMEE 260027 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/4/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/26 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 87.6 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35 60H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75 120H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 150 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=5.5- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS FLUCTUATED SLIGHTLY, TAKING ON A CLEARER STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE DVORAK EYE ANALYSIS OVER AN AVERAGE 6-HOUR PERIOD SHOWS AN INTENSIFICATION OF ANGGREK WITH ESTIMATED WIND VALUES OF 85KT. THESE VALUES ARE BROADLY CONFIRMED BY SAR SCATTEROMETER MEASUREMENTS FROM 1232UTC. ANGGREK REMAINS AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THRESHOLD. NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS CARRIED BY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK WILL THUS EVOLVE IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. AS THE RIDGE SWELLS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN OUT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARDS, PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHWEST. WITH THE DIRECTING FLOW WELL DEFINED, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY GOOD IN DIRECTOIN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SPEED AT WHICH IT WILL MOVE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD BRING IT TO THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK, DESPITE A SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR STRESS, THE EFFECTIVENESS OF WHICH IS COUNTERBALANCED BY THE SYSTEM'S RAPID WESTWARD MOVEMENT. HOWEVER, FORECASTING INTENSITY IS MADE DIFFICULT BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH COULD FLUCTUATE DUE TO INTERNAL MECHANISMS (EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE). DURING THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES, ANGGREK COULD SHOW A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR, WHICH COULD PENETRATE FURTHER INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE. THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST ATTEMPTS TO REFLECT THESE FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WITHOUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THESE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO STRUCTURAL CHANGES, EARLY NEXT WEEK ANGGREK SHOULD ENTER A MORE OR LESS RAPID PHASE OF WEAKENING, DUE TO LESS AND LESS ENERGETIC SURFACE WATERS AND, ABOVE ALL, TO A PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR, GRADUALLY BECOMING CROSS-CUTTING. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“安格雷克”向西偏南方向移动
时 间：26日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“安格雷克”，ANGGREK
中心位置：南纬16.4度、东经87.6度
强度等级：热带气旋
最大风力：14级（45米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：960百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约3200公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“安格雷克”强度维持不变
预报结论：“安格雷克”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度略有增强。
图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月26日08时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 260713 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/4/20232024 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/26 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 86.4 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/26 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 65 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 60H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 120H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 130 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=5.5- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AND THE CENTER HAS BECOME CLEARLY VISIBLE ON THE IR SATELLITE IMAGE. THE 11:41 PM SAR ALLOWED US TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THE WINDS AND THE MAXIMUM WIND RADIUS, WHICH IS 13NM. THE COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE FROM THE METOP C POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITE AT 03:34 CONFIRMS THIS VALUE. IT ALSO GIVES A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION, WHOSE ORGANIZATION AROUND THE CENTER HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE IR AND HRV SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO SHOW A FINE DIVERGENCE IN ALTITUDE. THE DVORAK EYE ANALYSIS OVER A 6-HOUR PERIOD SHOWS AN INTENSIFICATION, WITH WIND VALUES ESTIMATED AT 90KT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS INTENSITY, CONFIRMING ANGGREK'S TRANSITION TO AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS STEERED BY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE RIDGE SWELLS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN OUT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARDS, PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARD OR EVEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY, WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARDS. WITH THE DIRECTING FLOW WELL DEFINED, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY GOOD IN DIRECTION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SPEED AT WHICH IT WILL MOVE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WHICH HAVE ENABLED IT TO UPGRADE TO AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THIS STAGE UNTIL SATURDAY. IT WILL THEN RETURN TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON SUNDAY DUE TO A SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR STRESS, THE EFFICIENCY OF WHICH IS COUNTERBALANCED BY THE SYSTEM'S RAPID WESTWARD MOVEMENT. EARLY NEXT WEEK ANGGREK SHOULD ENTER A MORE OR LESS RAPID PHASE OF WEAKENING, DUE TO LESS AND LESS ENERGETIC SURFACE WATERS AND, ABOVE ALL, TO A PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR, GRADUALLY BECOMING CROSS-CUTTING. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=
最后于 2024-01-26 15:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：