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WTPS31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 17.3S 153.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 153.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 17.6S 152.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 17.9S 151.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 18.5S 149.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 19.5S 147.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.0S 144.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 153.2E. 23JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 442 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231200Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.3S 153.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 442 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SYSTEM, HINDERING CORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD POLEWARD VENTING INTO A JET TO THE SOUTHEAST HELPING SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 231110Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LLC. A 231012Z SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO INDICATES A BROAD WEAK CORE WITH PATCHY GALE-FORCE WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF, RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE RECENT CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS ABRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 231130Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07P IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH AND IS FORECASTED TO TURN WESTWARD TO WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE NEXT DAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE, REPLACED BY UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AT LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND, WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF ONLY 57 NM AT TAU 48. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 24 THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS MEDIUM. DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC FORECASTS, INDICATES A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 50 TO 60 KNOTS. THE 221800Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INTENSITY PROBABILITIES SHOW LOW PROBABILITY (20 TO 30 PERCENT) OF MODERATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-24 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1944 UTC 23/01/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 05U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 17.2S Longitude: 152.9E Location Accuracy: within 35nm (65 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (255 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 991 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm (240 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 250 nm (465 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 24/0000: 17.4S 152.3E: 050 (090): 040 (075): 992 +12: 24/0600: 17.6S 151.6E: 060 (105): 040 (075): 992 +18: 24/1200: 17.6S 150.7E: 065 (120): 045 (085): 990 +24: 24/1800: 17.8S 149.9E: 070 (125): 045 (085): 989 +36: 25/0600: 18.7S 148.0E: 080 (145): 055 (100): 982 +48: 25/1800: 19.8S 145.7E: 095 (180): 040 (075): 994 +60: 26/0600: 21.3S 144.5E: 120 (220): 030 (055): 999 +72: 26/1800: 21.6S 143.4E: 145 (265): 025 (045): 1001 +96: 27/1800: 21.3S 144.1E: 205 (375): 025 (045): 1001 +120: 28/1800: 22.2S 144.0E: 290 (535): 025 (045): 1001 REMARKS: Tropical Low 05U remaining slow to develop but still expected to develop ahead of landfall in the next 36h. Position based on animated EIR imagery and observations (Lihou Reef and Marion Reef). There remains position uncertainty given the centre elongation and being obscured by middle level cloud. Intensity of 40kn based primarily on observations: Marion Reef to the south consistently 35-40kn 999.9hPa at 18UTC, and more recently Lihou Reef to the west 30-35kn and 993.8hPa at 18UTC. The satellite signature remains weaker with deep convection struggling to persist near the centre. Dvorak analysis: DT = 2.0 based on curved band wrap of 0.3 averaged over 3 hours, the outer band has continued to move away from the centre and an inner band has developed since 0500z; MET=2.0 with a S trend over the last 24 hours, PAT left at 2.0. FT=2.0 CI = 2.0. Objective aids: ADT 2.5 35 kn; AiDT 33kn; DMINT 34kn; SATCON 40kn (all 1-minute wind speeds). Gales are only estimated in southern quadrants explaining why the system is yet to be named as a tropical cyclone. Convection is struggling to consolidate around the low level centre. Upper level winds display poleward outflow but restricted outflow to the north. Otherwise, the general environment remains conducive for development. SSTs remain high along the track at about 30 degrees Celsius. Moisture mostly remains high over the system though water vapour shows some dry air on the northwestern periphery, this area of dry air appears to be decreasing over time. CIMSS vertical wind shear shows low shear over the circulation. The forecast intensity by landfall of 60kn (category 2) is dependent upon improved deep convection near the centre to consolidate the circulation. NWP continues to indicate some development albeit at more modest than previously suggested. The system is expected to take a west southwest track towards the coast as a cradling ridge becomes established to the south as the upper trough moves away to the east. There is good consistency between the guidance for a coastal crossing between Cardwell and Airlie Beach Thursday night while the timing of the crossing varies from as early as Thursday midday to about Friday morning. During Friday, the system is forecast to weaken as it tracks inland with heavy rain and strong winds likely along its path. Over the weekend and into next week, the track takes the system further south, with heavy rain and strong winds possible for southern and central Queensland. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0130 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 am January 24 tropical low 17.2S 152.9E 65 +6hr 10 am January 24 tropical low 17.4S 152.3E 90 +12hr 4 pm January 24 tropical low 17.6S 151.6E 105 +18hr 10 pm January 24 1 17.6S 150.7E 120 +24hr 4 am January 25 1 17.8S 149.9E 125 +36hr 4 pm January 25 2 18.7S 148.0E 145 +48hr 4 am January 26 1 19.8S 145.7E 180 +60hr 4 pm January 26 tropical low 21.3S 144.5E 220 +72hr 4 am January 27 tropical low 21.6S 143.4E 265 -
WTPS31 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 153.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 153.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 17.5S 152.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 18.0S 150.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 18.8S 148.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 19.9S 146.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 22.0S 143.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 153.0E. 23JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 431 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.3S 153.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 431 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF A BROAD CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-CHANNEL 231514Z ATMS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. DEVELOPMENT IS BEING INHIBITED BY THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT AND THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 231730Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 32 KTS AT 231800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK WESTWARD OTHER FACTORS: WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CIRCULATION ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07P CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND DOMINATE STEERING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ERODES AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN CONSEQUENTLY IMPROVES. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER PRIOR TO LANDFALL WILL ALSO SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH THE BROAD CIRCULATION HAS ONLY LIMITED TIME TO CONSOLIDATE. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACK INLAND AFTER TAU 36, WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK, ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION ADDS AN ELEMENT OF NEAR-TERM UNCERTAINTY. MESOSCALE DYNAMIC MODELS, INCLUDING HAFS AND COAMPS-TC, AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH EXPECTATIONS FOR AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF THE RELATIVELY BROAD AND DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION. THUS, CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-24 08:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0118 UTC 24/01/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 05U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 17.1S Longitude: 152.7E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: west (270 deg) Speed of Movement: 3 knots (5 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 993 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/W-0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm (405 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 24/0600: 17.7S 152.0E: 040 (070): 040 (075): 993 +12: 24/1200: 17.8S 151.1E: 050 (095): 045 (085): 990 +18: 24/1800: 17.9S 150.1E: 055 (105): 045 (085): 989 +24: 25/0000: 18.3S 149.2E: 060 (115): 050 (095): 984 +36: 25/1200: 19.3S 146.8E: 070 (135): 055 (100): 983 +48: 26/0000: 20.6S 145.2E: 095 (180): 030 (055): 999 +60: 26/1200: 21.4S 144.4E: 115 (215): 030 (055): 998 +72: 27/0000: 21.5S 143.7E: 135 (250): 025 (045): 1000 +96: 28/0000: 21.5S 143.1E: 205 (375): 025 (045): 1000 +120: 29/0000: 22.1S 142.5E: 295 (545): 025 (045): 1000 REMARKS: Tropical Low 05U remaining slow to develop but still expected to develop ahead of landfall in the next 36h. Position based on animated VIS imagery and observations (Lihou Reef and Marion Reef). There remains position uncertainty given the centre elongation and being obscured by middle level cloud. Intensity of 40kn based primarily on observations: Marion Reef to the south consistently 35-40kn 1001hPa at 00UTC; Lihou Reef pressure 994hPa with winds fluctuating 25-35kn. The satellite signature remains weak with deep convection struggling to persist near the centre. Dvorak analysis: DT = 2.0 based on curved band wrap of 0.2 to 0.3; MET=2.0 with a W- trend over the last 24 hours, PAT left at 2.0. FT=2.0 CI = 2.0. Objective aids: ADT 33kn; AiDT 37kn; DPRINT 33kn (all 1-minute wind speeds). Gales are only estimated in southern quadrants explaining why the system is yet to be named as a tropical cyclone. Convection is struggling to consolidate around the low level centre. Upper level winds display poleward outflow but restricted outflow to the north. Otherwise, the general environment remains conducive for development. SSTs remain high along the track at about 30 degrees Celsius. Moisture mostly remains high over the system though water vapour shows some dry air on the northwestern periphery, this area of dry air appears to be decreasing over time. CIMSS vertical wind shear shows low shear over the circulation. The forecast intensity by landfall of 55kn (category 2) is dependent upon improved deep convection near the centre to consolidate the circulation. NWP continues to indicate some development albeit more modest than previously suggested. The system is expected to take a west southwest track towards the coast as a cradling ridge becomes established to the south as the upper trough moves away to the east. There is good consistency between the guidance for a coastal crossing between Cardwell and Bowen Thursday night while the timing of the crossing varies from as early as Thursday midday to about Friday morning. During Friday, the system is forecast to weaken as it tracks inland with heavy rain and strong winds likely along its path. Over the weekend and into next week, the track takes the system further west, with heavy rain possible for western and central Queensland. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0730 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 am January 24 tropical low 17.1S 152.7E 45 +6hr 4 pm January 24 tropical low 17.7S 152.0E 70 +12hr 10 pm January 24 1 17.8S 151.1E 95 +18hr 4 am January 25 1 17.9S 150.1E 105 +24hr 10 am January 25 2 18.3S 149.2E 115 +36hr 10 pm January 25 2 19.3S 146.8E 135 +48hr 10 am January 26 tropical low 20.6S 145.2E 180 +60hr 10 pm January 26 tropical low 21.4S 144.4E 215 +72hr 10 am January 27 tropical low 21.5S 143.7E 250 最后于 2024-01-24 09:25:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS31 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 153.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 153.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 17.6S 151.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 18.2S 149.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 19.2S 147.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 20.5S 145.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 21.7S 143.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 152.6E. 24JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 414 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240000Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.3S 153.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 414 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LIMITED, FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL MESOVORTICES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A PARTIAL 232029Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SENSOR PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON WINDS EXCEEDING 35 KNOTS EVIDENT WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY IN A PARTIAL 232222Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND COVERAGE HAS DECREASED, AN EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE SYSTEM REFLECTS AN EXPANSION OF OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY TO THE WEST, AS WELL AS THE DISSIPATION OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 232222Z FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (STR) TO THE SOUTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 232330Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 240000Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07P WILL ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE STR CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IMPROVING OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE BROAD AND DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS VERY UNLIKELY AS THE BROAD CIRCULATION HAS ONLY LIMITED TIME TO CONSOLIDATE. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND AFTER TAU 36 AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION, THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AND WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE DISPLACED FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER PRIOR TO LANDFALL. CONSENSUS DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL- DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL DEPICT A SLOW UPWARD TREND TOWARD A PEAK INTENSITY IN THE 45 TO 55 KNOT RANGE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. GIVEN THE STRAIGHTFORWARD STEERING PATTERN DEVELOPMENT FACTORS, CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS IS HIGH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-24 10:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0717 UTC 24/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily Identifier: 05U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 17.4S Longitude: 152.4E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (247 deg) Speed of Movement: 3 knots (5 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 990 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm (240 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm (240 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 50 nm (95 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm (445 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 24/1200: 17.7S 151.0E: 045 (080): 045 (085): 992 +12: 24/1800: 17.8S 150.1E: 055 (100): 045 (085): 987 +18: 25/0000: 18.2S 149.1E: 060 (115): 050 (095): 988 +24: 25/0600: 18.8S 147.9E: 070 (125): 055 (100): 984 +36: 25/1800: 19.9S 145.4E: 080 (145): 040 (075): 989 +48: 26/0600: 21.5S 144.1E: 120 (220): 030 (055): 993 +60: 26/1800: 21.7S 142.5E: 130 (240): 025 (045): 993 +72: 27/0600: 21.4S 141.8E: 145 (265): 025 (045): 992 +96: 28/0600: 20.6S 141.2E: 230 (425): 025 (045): 994 +120: 29/0600: 21.0S 138.9E: 300 (560): 025 (045): 997 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily has developed in the Coral Sea, and is expected to continue strengthening ahead of landfall in the next 30h. Position based on animated VIS imagery and observations (Lihou Reef and Marion Reef). Starting to see the circulation on the eastern edge of Willis Island radar. Even though convection has improved, particularly to the northwest, there remains some elongation in the system centre. Intensity of 40kn based primarily on observations: Marion Reef to the south consistently 35-40kn 998hPa at 03UTC; Lihou Reef is very close to the centre and winds and pressure are reflective of that. The satellite signature has significantly improved. Dry air to the north inhibiting development has begun to dissipate. Deep convection is developing closer to the centre and expanding in southern and western quadrants. Dvorak analysis: DT = 2.5 based on curved band wrap of 0.5; MET=3.5 with a D trend over the last 24 hours, PAT adjusted to 3.0. FT=2.5 CI = 2.5 based on clear-cut cloud pattern. Objective aids: ADT 34kn; AiDT 33kn; DPRINT 35kn; DMINT 36kn (all 1-minute wind speeds). Convection is still distant from the centre and consequently RMW is quite large, however starting to see curvature into the centre with more convection developing. Upper level winds display poleward outflow but restricted outflow to the north. Otherwise, the general environment remains conducive for development. SSTs remain high along the track at about 30 degrees Celsius. Moisture mostly remains high over the system and water vapour shows the dry air on the northwestern periphery decreasing. CIMSS vertical wind shear shows low shear over the circulation. The forecast intensity by landfall of 55kn (category 2) is dependent upon improved deep convection near the centre to consolidate the circulation. The system is expected to take a west southwest track towards the coast as a cradling ridge strengthens. There is good consistency between the guidance for a coastal crossing between Cardwell and Bowen Thursday night while the timing of the crossing varies from as early as Thursday midday to about Friday morning. During Friday, the system is forecast to weaken as it tracks inland with heavy rain and strong winds likely along its path. Over the weekend and into next week, the track takes the system further west, with heavy rain possible for western and northern interior Queensland. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1330 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 pm January 24 1 17.4S 152.4E 55 +6hr 10 pm January 24 1 17.7S 151.0E 80 +12hr 4 am January 25 1 17.8S 150.1E 100 +18hr 10 am January 25 2 18.2S 149.1E 115 +24hr 4 pm January 25 2 18.8S 147.9E 125 +36hr 4 am January 26 1 19.9S 145.4E 145 +48hr 4 pm January 26 tropical low 21.5S 144.1E 220 +60hr 4 am January 27 tropical low 21.7S 142.5E 240 +72hr 4 pm January 27 tropical low 21.4S 141.8E 265 最后于 2024-01-24 15:20:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS31 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 152.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 152.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 17.9S 150.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 18.8S 148.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 19.9S 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 21.1S 144.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 151.7E. 24JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 368 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.4S 152.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 368 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST DAY, WITH A POINT SOURCE NOW PRESENT OVER THE CENTER, EXPANDING OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. A 240459Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE SYMMETRIC, BROAD LLCC. THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER LIHOU REEF (94293), WHICH IS CURRENTLY REPORTING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AFTER A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. MINIMUM SLP WAS RECORDED AT 240500Z WITH A VALUE OF 991.8 MB. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI, AMSR2 IMAGE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS ABRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 240530Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA NEAR TAU 30. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE THROUGH TAU 24, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 24. RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 35 NM AT TAU 24 AND 45 NM AT TAU 36 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-24 16:20:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
澳大利亚附近海域热带气旋“基里莉”生成
时 间：24日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“基里莉”， KIRRILY
中心位置：南纬17.4度、东经152.4度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：990百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州麦凯东北方向约530公里的洋面上
变化过程：“基里莉”生成并加强到8级
预报结论：“基里莉”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月24日14时00分）
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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1300 UTC 24/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily Identifier: 05U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 17.6S Longitude: 151.0E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (253 deg) Speed of Movement: 9 knots (16 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 990 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm (240 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 50 nm (95 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 24/1800: 17.8S 150.2E: 045 (080): 045 (085): 989 +12: 25/0000: 18.3S 149.2E: 055 (100): 050 (095): 987 +18: 25/0600: 18.9S 148.2E: 060 (110): 055 (100): 985 +24: 25/1200: 19.5S 146.9E: 065 (120): 055 (100): 985 +36: 26/0000: 20.8S 145.1E: 080 (150): 030 (055): 1001 +48: 26/1200: 22.0S 143.5E: 120 (220): 030 (055): 1001 +60: 27/0000: 22.0S 142.8E: 130 (245): 025 (045): 1002 +72: 27/1200: 21.7S 142.3E: 160 (300): 025 (045): 1003 +96: 28/1200: 21.4S 141.3E: 225 (420): 025 (045): 1002 +120: 29/1200: 21.3S 140.2E: 300 (560): 025 (045): 1003 REMARKS: Bursts of deep convection have continued to wrap around the western side of TC Kirrily, though still somewhat displaced from the estimated low level centre. Nevertheless, the cloud structure has improved markedly from 12 hours ago, suggesting the negative influences of shear and dry air that plagued the system yesterday are waning. The centre position is based on animated EIR imagery and observations (Lihou Reef, Marion Reef, Flinders Reef, and Willis Island) with only fair confidence. The estimated centre has moved into range of the Willis Island radar. Dvorak analysis: DT = 2.5 based on a 3 hourly average curved band wrap of 0.5; MET=3.0 with a 24 hour D trend and no pattern adjustment. FT=2.5 based on DT, with CI = 2.5. Objective aids: ADT 34kn; AiDT 34kn; DPRINT 32kn; DMINT 36kn (all 1-minute wind speeds). Intensity set to 40kn based primarily on observations, with Marion Reef (to the southeast) and Willis Island (to the northwest) recently recording marginal gales. The centre earlier passed close to Lihou Reef, with the minimum MSLP of 991.8 hPa. Kirrily remains a broad system with swathes of gales well away from the centre (estimated RMW 50nmi). CIMSS wind analysis show upper level easterlies over the system, though perhaps becoming slightly more diffluent. No strong outflow channels are evident. Deep layer shear is analysed as easterly around 5 knots. SSTs remain high along the track at about 30 degrees Celsius. Moisture has reformed around the system though some drier air still remains to the west. Steering is expected to be dominated by a mid-level ridge cradling the system to the south, accelerating the system towards the Queensland coast with estimated landfall in around 24 hours. Favourable environmental conditions should be maintained through to landfall, and intensification is forecast at the standard rate maintaining the forecast landfall intensity of 55 knots. This is consistent with a consensus of deterministic guidance. Given the robust steering pattern developing and the stability of numerical guidance, there is high confidence in the track forecast with landfall expected between Ingham and Bowen, in the vicinity of Townsville, on Thursday night. During Friday, the system is forecast to weaken as it tracks inland with heavy rain and strong winds likely along its path. Over the weekend and into next week, the track takes the system further west, with heavy rain possible for the western and northern interior of Queensland. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1930 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 pm January 24 1 17.6S 151.0E 55 +6hr 4 am January 25 1 17.8S 150.2E 80 +12hr 10 am January 25 2 18.3S 149.2E 100 +18hr 4 pm January 25 2 18.9S 148.2E 110 +24hr 10 pm January 25 2 19.5S 146.9E 120 +36hr 10 am January 26 tropical low 20.8S 145.1E 150 +48hr 10 pm January 26 tropical low 22.0S 143.5E 220 +60hr 10 am January 27 tropical low 22.0S 142.8E 245 +72hr 10 pm January 27 tropical low 21.7S 142.3E 300 -
WTPS31 PGTW 241500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 17.5S 150.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 150.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 18.2S 148.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 19.2S 146.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 20.4S 144.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 21.5S 142.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 241500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 150.2E. 24JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241200Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 241500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.5S 150.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 283 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, WITH A POINT SOURCE NOW PRESENT OVER THE CENTER, EXPANDING OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, TUCKED UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CORE DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY AND A 1200Z RADAR FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LIHOU REEF, WHICH BOUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CENTER, INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 26 KNOTS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) WITH A SLP VALUE OF 995.9 MB. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS ABRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 241130Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA NEAR TAU 24. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE THROUGH TAU 24, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 24. RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 45 NM AT TAU 24 AND 80 NM AT TAU 36 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-25 04:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：