ABPW10 PGTW 170730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/170730Z-180600ZJAN2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.2S 
152.4E, APPROXIMATELY 459 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE SYSTEM THAT SLIGHTLY OBSCURES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES, AND 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.  THE PRIMARY HINDRANCE FOR INVEST 90P IS 
THE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHEAR FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE 
SOUTHEAST WHICH IS PREVENTING CONVECTION FROM WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM 
AND KEEPING THE VORTEX CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS. THE SLOW 
ORGANIZATION OF CIRCULATION IS ALSO EVIDENT ON RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER ANIMATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90P WILL 
CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS WHILE MOVING INTO AN EVEN MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE 
TROUGH CONTINUES ON AND MID-LEVEL SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH DECREASES.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) .//
NNNN

ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZJAN2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.5S 154.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 157.0E, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 190344Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE 
BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 90P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE 
TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL TRACK SLOWLY 
SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

WTPS21 PGTW 192030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 155.9E TO 15.8S 152.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8S 155.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 
157.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 155.5E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY AND A 191731Z SSMIS 
91GHZ DEPICT A FORMATIVE SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED 
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMET, 
WITH WEAK POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WARM SSTS (30 C), OFFSET BY HIGH 
VWS (20-30 KT). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL 
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
202030Z.
//
NNNN

ABPW10 PGTW 192030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/192030Z-200600ZJAN2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/192021ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.2S 157.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 155.5E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY AND A 191731Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ DEPICT A FORMATIVE SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL 
DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMET, WITH WEAK POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WARM SSTS (30 C), 
OFFSET BY HIGH VWS (20-30 KT). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 90P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER DEVELOP OVER 
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE:
NNNN

WTPS21 PGTW 202030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 9OP) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/192021ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 155.9E TO 15.8S 153.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9S 154.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 
155.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 154.8E, APPROXIMATELY 292 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY AND A 191731Z SSMIS 
91GHZ DEPICT A FORMATIVE SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED 
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, 
WITH WEAK POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WARM SSTS (30 C), OFFSET BY HIGH 
VWS (20-30 KT). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL 
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 
192030).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
212030Z.
//
NNNN

WTPS21 PGTW 210530 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 9OP) CORRECTED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202021ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 155.9E TO 15.8S 153.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9S 154.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 154.8E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 154.2E, APPROXIMATELY 253 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 210331Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT 
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING 
ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, 
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SSTS (29-30 C), OFFSET BY HIGH VWS (20-30 KT). GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER DEVELOP OVER 
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 
202030).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
212030Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MICROWAVE IMAGERY TIME IN PARAGRAPH 2.
//
NNNN

WTPS21 PGTW 202030 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 9OP) CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 155.9E TO 15.8S 153.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9S 154.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 154.8E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 154.2E, APPROXIMATELY 253 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 210331Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT 
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING 
ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, 
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SSTS (29-30 C), OFFSET BY HIGH VWS (20-30 KT). GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER DEVELOP OVER 
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
212030Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MICROWAVE IMAGERY TIME IN PARAGRAPH 2.
//
NNNN

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 10:54 am EST on Sunday 21 January 2024

At 10 am AEST Sunday, a Tropical Low with central pressure 998 hPa was located
over the Coral sea
near latitude 15.0 south longitude 154.4 east, which is about 495 km east
northeast of Willis Island  and 940 km east northeast of Townsville.

The low is slow moving and should gradually intensify over the next 24 hours.

Tropical Low 05U is developing in the Coral Sea and is forecast to track
towards the Queensland coast. A coastal crossing is likely around the middle of
the week, with the most likely zone being  between about Cairns and Mackay. A
severe coastal impact is possible, particularly if the system crosses near or
south of Townsville.  

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 pm AEST today.

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:48 pm EST on Sunday 21 January 2024

At 4 pm AEST Sunday, a Tropical Low with central pressure 996 hPa was located
over the Coral sea
near latitude 15.2 south longitude 153.9 east, which is about 435 km east
northeast of Willis Island  and 880 km east northeast of Townsville.

The low is moving west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour and should gradually
intensify over the next 24 hours.

Tropical Low 05U is developing in the Coral Sea and is forecast to track
towards the Queensland coast. A coastal crossing between about Cairns and
Mackay is likely around the middle of the week. A severe coastal impact is
possible, particularly if the system crosses near or south of Townsville.  

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 pm AEST today.

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 10:46 pm EST on Sunday 21 January 2024

At 10 pm AEST Sunday, a Tropical Low with central pressure 999 hPa was located
over the Coral sea
near latitude 15.4 south longitude 154.1 east, which is about 450 km east
northeast of Willis Island  and 890 km east northeast of Townsville.

The low is slow moving west southwest and should gradually intensify over the
next 24 hours.

Tropical Low 05U is developing in the Coral Sea and is forecast to track
towards the Queensland coast. A coastal crossing between about Cairns and
Mackay is likely around the middle of the week. A severe coastal impact is
possible, particularly if the system crosses near or south of Townsville.   

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 am AEST today.

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1934 UTC 21/01/2024
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.4S
Longitude: 153.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (255 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 280 nm (520 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  22/0000: 15.5S 154.0E:     040 (080):  035  (065):  993
+12:  22/0600: 15.8S 154.2E:     060 (110):  035  (065):  994
+18:  22/1200: 16.0S 154.0E:     070 (130):  040  (075):  991
+24:  22/1800: 16.2S 153.8E:     075 (140):  040  (075):  991
+36:  23/0600: 16.7S 153.4E:     085 (160):  045  (085):  988
+48:  23/1800: 17.2S 152.7E:     105 (190):  060  (110):  977
+60:  24/0600: 17.9S 151.5E:     120 (225):  070  (130):  970
+72:  24/1800: 18.7S 149.9E:     135 (245):  080  (150):  958
+96:  25/1800: 21.1S 146.7E:     180 (335):  035  (065):  989
+120: 26/1800: 23.1S 147.6E:     245 (455):  025  (045): 1000
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 05U is slowly moving in the Coral Sea. 

Moderate confidence in the position. The position was determined from microwave
imagery and the recent speed of movement. Deep convection around 05U has been
intermittently inhibited by the strong vertical shear over the past few hours. 

Dvorak curve band around 0.2 giving a DT 1.5. MET is 2.0 based on a S trend,
PAT was adjusted to 1.5. FT to 1.5 based on DT/PAT, and CI remains at 2.0.
Objective aids are unavailable at this early stage of development. An earlier
ASCAT C pass had a broad area of 25 knots in the northern quadrants. Intensity
is set to 30 knots (10-min mean). 

SST are around 30 deg C along the forecast track. CIMSS wind analysis shows a
strong shear gradient over the system about 20-25 knots.  

05U is forecast to be a large system and will develop slowly. During Monday,
the system is likely to be slow-moving at first, then start to track to the
southwest by late Monday or early Tuesday as a mid-level ridge develops to the
southwest of the system, and the monsoon flow increases to the north of the
system. During Wednesday and Thursday, the mid-level ridge will cradle the
system towards the Queensland coast. Recent model guidance has increased
confidence in the forecast track towards the coast. The system is likely to
intensify into a category 3 severe tropical cyclone during Wednesday and
Thursday, with a slight chance of reaching category 4 intensity. 

There is some uncertainty regarding the crossing time over the Queensland
coast; it is most likely to be Thursday but could range from Wednesday to
Friday. If the system does cross on Friday, then it is most likely to be south
of Mackay. During Friday and Saturday, the mid-level ridge to the east of the
system, combined with an upper trough to the south, will track the system to
the south and then southeast. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/0130 UTC.

WTPS21 PGTW 212030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210521ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. //
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.2S 154.9E TO 18.2S 151.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S 154.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 
154.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 154.1E, APPROXIMATELY 244 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY, A 211647Z SSMIS 89GHZ 
SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND A 211155Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE 
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION WITH CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND 
A TROUGHING AREA EXTENDING FROM THE LLCC WESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30C 
SST), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-
30 KT). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL 
GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 210530).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
222030Z.//
NNNN