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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1940 UTC 24/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily Identifier: 05U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 17.7S Longitude: 150.4E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: west (260 deg) Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 990 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 180 nm (335 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm (65 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 260 nm (480 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 25/0000: 18.0S 149.5E: 045 (080): 045 (085): 993 +12: 25/0600: 18.5S 148.4E: 050 (095): 050 (095): 988 +18: 25/1200: 19.0S 147.1E: 055 (105): 055 (100): 986 +24: 25/1800: 19.6S 145.9E: 060 (110): 040 (075): 996 +36: 26/0600: 21.2S 144.4E: 090 (170): 030 (055): 1001 +48: 26/1800: 21.5S 143.0E: 115 (210): 025 (045): 1004 +60: 27/0600: 21.2S 142.2E: 130 (245): 025 (045): 1002 +72: 27/1800: 20.8S 141.5E: 155 (285): 025 (045): 1003 +96: 28/1800: 20.4S 140.1E: 210 (390): 025 (045): 1004 +120: 29/1800: 20.1S 137.3E: 250 (465): 025 (045): 1005 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily has developed with very deep convection to the west and now north and closer to the centre. The centre position has not been easily defined but has more recently become better defined on Willis Is radar. Intensity is 40kn based primarily on observations which are also informing gale extent - Lihou Reef, Marion Reef, Flinders Reef, Hardy Reef, Willis Island, Creal Reef and Hamilton Is (winds terrain enhanced)). Dvorak analysis: FT/CI = 3.0 based on a DT 3 hourly average curved band wrap of 0.6; adjusted MET=3.0 with a 24 hour D+ trend and pattern adjustment 0f -0.5. Objective aids: ADT 37kn; AiDT 34kn; DPRINT 49kn; DMINT 36kn, SATCON N/A (all 1-minute wind speeds). The centre passed close to Lihou Reef in the past 12h, with the minimum MSLP of 991.8 hPa. Gales are extending well to the south assisted by the environmental flow. After being broad system with disorganised convection, and indications of dry air curtailing deep convection near the centre, Kirrily appears to be consolidating with very cold cloud tops. The environment is generally conducive for further development being in a low wind shear environment with generally high moisture in the low-mid levels. CIMSS wind analysis show upper level easterlies over the system, though perhaps becoming slightly more diffluent without having strong outflow channels evident. SSTs remain high at about 30 degrees Celsius. Steering is being dominated by a mid-level ridge cradling the system to the south, accelerating the system towards the Queensland coast with estimated landfall in less than 24 hours. Favourable environmental conditions should be maintained through to landfall, and intensification is forecast at the standard rate maintaining the forecast landfall intensity of 55 knots. This is consistent with a consensus of deterministic guidance. Given the robust steering pattern developing and the stability of numerical guidance, there is high confidence in the track forecast with landfall expected between Ingham and Bowen, in the vicinity of Townsville, on Thursday night. From Friday, the system is forecast to weaken as it tracks inland with heavy rain and strong winds likely along its path to the west over the continent. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0130 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 am January 25 1 17.7S 150.4E 55 +6hr 10 am January 25 1 18.0S 149.5E 80 +12hr 4 pm January 25 2 18.5S 148.4E 95 +18hr 10 pm January 25 2 19.0S 147.1E 105 +24hr 4 am January 26 1 19.6S 145.9E 110 +36hr 4 pm January 26 tropical low 21.2S 144.4E 170 +48hr 4 am January 27 tropical low 21.5S 143.0E 210 +60hr 4 pm January 27 tropical low 21.2S 142.2E 245 +72hr 4 am January 28 tropical low 20.8S 141.5E 285 -
WTPS31 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 150.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 150.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 18.7S 147.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 19.8S 145.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 21.0S 143.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 149.5E. 24JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241800Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z. // NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.8S 150.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 247 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (KIRRILY) SHOWING EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEER IMPACTING THE SYSTEM, DISPLACING EXPLOSIVE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE ENSUING CANOPY TO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS BEST OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING IN TIGHTLY TO THE LLCC. VERY HIGH (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) FEEDING THE SYSTEM REQUISITE ENERGY FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS (LESS THAN 50 PCT RH) AHEAD OF TRACK, RESTRAINING THE INTENSIFICATION TREND OBSERVED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON 241748Z SSMIS 37GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES PRESENTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: CORAL SEA SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM FINDERS REEF, WILLIS ISLAND, AND MARION REEF. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS ABRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 241930Z CIMSS DPRINT: 55 KTS AT 241900Z CIMSS DMINT: 52 KTS AT 241818Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN TURN TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION AT TAU 36. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COASTLINE OF AUSTRALIA, 150NM SSE OF CAIRNS, NEAR TAU 18. DISSIPATION OF THE TC IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 OVER LAND. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT THAT TC 07P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST INTERVAL. A BRIEF AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS OBSERVED IN GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 12, AND THEN A GRADUAL DROP IN INTENSITY IS OBSERVED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST (TAU 36). FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-25 04:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0104 UTC 25/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily Identifier: 05U Data At: 0100 UTC Latitude: 18.3S Longitude: 149.0E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (248 deg) Speed of Movement: 10 knots (18 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h) Central Pressure: 990 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 160 nm (295 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm (240 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 130 nm (240 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm (65 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 25/0700: 18.9S 147.8E: 035 (065): 055 (100): 987 +12: 25/1300: 19.5S 146.6E: 045 (090): 050 (095): 988 +18: 25/1900: 20.2S 145.5E: 055 (105): 040 (075): 991 +24: 26/0100: 20.9S 144.6E: 070 (135): 030 (055): 994 +36: 26/1300: 21.8S 143.0E: 100 (190): 025 (045): 995 +48: 27/0100: 21.7S 141.9E: 115 (215): 025 (045): 995 +60: 27/1300: 21.7S 141.2E: 130 (240): 025 (045): 994 +72: 28/0100: 21.5S 140.7E: 145 (275): 025 (045): 994 +96: 29/0100: 21.2S 139.4E: 215 (400): 025 (045): 996 +120: 30/0100: 21.0S 136.3E: 255 (475): 025 (045): 997 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily has very deep convection to the west and now north and closer to the centre. The centre position has become much easier to find on vis imagery as well as Willis Island, Bowen and Hervey Range radars. Observations are also informing gale extent - Lihou Reef, Marion Reef, Flinders Reef, Hardy Reef, Willis Island and Hamilton Is (winds terrain enhanced)). Intensity is 50kn based on observations as well as SMOS pass at 20:26 UTC indicating storm force winds to the north. Dvorak analysis: FT/CI = 3.5 based on PT/MET of 3.5 with a 24 hour D+ trend. DT=3.0 with a 3hourly average curved band wrap of 0.6. Objective aids: ADT 43kn; AiDT 38kn; DPRINT 52kn; SATCON N/A (all 1-minute wind speeds). Gales are extending well to the south assisted by the environmental flow. Kirrily has continued to become more consolidated, though it is still a broad circulation and the RMW remains large. The environment is generally conducive for slow development until land landfall. It is in a low to moderate wind shear environment with generally high moisture in the low-mid levels. CIMSS wind analysis show upper level easterlies over the system, though perhaps becoming slightly more diffluent without having strong outflow channels evident. SSTs remain high at about 30 degrees Celsius. With this favourable environment slow intensification is forecast until landfall, with forecast landfall intensity of 55 knots. This is consistent with a consensus of deterministic guidance. Steering is being dominated by a mid-level ridge cradling the system to the south, accelerating the system towards the Queensland coast with estimated landfall in less than 18 hours. Given the robust steering pattern developing and the stability of numerical guidance, there is high confidence in the track forecast with landfall expected between Ingham and Bowen, in the vicinity of Townsville, later tonight. From Friday, the system is forecast to weaken as it tracks inland with heavy rain likely and strong winds possible along its path to the west over the continent. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0730 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 11 am January 25 2 18.3S 149.0E 35 +6hr 5 pm January 25 2 18.9S 147.8E 65 +12hr 11 pm January 25 2 19.5S 146.6E 90 +18hr 5 am January 26 1 20.2S 145.5E 105 +24hr 11 am January 26 tropical low 20.9S 144.6E 135 +36hr 11 pm January 26 tropical low 21.8S 143.0E 190 +48hr 11 am January 27 tropical low 21.7S 141.9E 215 +60hr 11 pm January 27 tropical low 21.7S 141.2E 240 +72hr 11 am January 28 tropical low 21.5S 140.7E 275 最后于 2024-01-25 09:10:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS31 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 149.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 149.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 19.3S 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 20.6S 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 21.5S 143.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 148.5E. 25JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250000Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.// NNNN
WTPS31 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 149.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 149.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 19.3S 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 20.6S 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 21.5S 143.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 148.5E. 25JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250000Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.2S 149.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 204 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (KIRRILY) HAVING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED MOSTLY TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND SHEER. THE OUTERMOST SHALLOW BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY HAS MOVED OVER LAND, BRINGING REPORTS OF RAINFALL ALONG COASTAL OBSERVATION SITES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 250000Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF REPORTING 53KTS WESTERLIES AT 250100Z, 58NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC, AND THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: CORAL SEA SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM FINDERS REEF, WILLIS ISLAND, AND MARION REEF. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS ABRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 242330Z CIMSS DPRINT: 57 KTS AT 250100Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COASTLINE OF AUSTRALIA, 154NM SSE OF CAIRNS, NEAR TAU 12 WITH AN INTENSITY OF APPROXIMATELY 50KTS. DISSIPATION OF THE TC IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 OVER LAND. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT THAT TC 07P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST INTERVAL. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TC 07P HAS REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KTS AND WILL GRADUALLY DOWNTREND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST (THROUGH TAU 36). FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-25 12:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“基里莉”将登陆澳大利亚昆士兰州东部沿海一带
时 间：25日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“基里莉”，KIRRILY
中心位置：南纬18.2度、东经149.0度
强度等级：二级热带气旋
最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：990百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州汤斯维尔东偏北方向约255公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“基里莉”由8级加强到10级
预报结论：“基里莉”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，登陆前强度变化不大，将于今天夜间登陆澳大利亚昆士兰州汤斯维尔附近沿海地区。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月25日08时00分）
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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0630 UTC 25/01/2024 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Kirrily Identifier: 05U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 18.6S Longitude: 147.7E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (249 deg) Speed of Movement: 13 knots (24 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots (120 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots (165 km/h) Central Pressure: 980 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 95 nm (175 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 145 nm (270 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm (240 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 25/1200: 19.0S 146.7E: 030 (055): 065 (120): 984 +12: 25/1800: 19.6S 145.5E: 045 (080): 045 (085): 994 +18: 26/0000: 20.3S 144.7E: 055 (105): 030 (055): 1000 +24: 26/0600: 21.0S 144.0E: 070 (130): 025 (045): 1001 +36: 26/1800: 21.4S 142.5E: 090 (165): 025 (045): 1002 +48: 27/0600: 21.1S 141.8E: 110 (200): 025 (045): 1000 +60: 27/1800: 20.6S 141.3E: 125 (235): 025 (045): 1001 +72: 28/0600: 20.3S 140.8E: 155 (285): 025 (045): 1001 +96: 29/0600: 21.0S 139.4E: 205 (375): 025 (045): 1001 +120: 30/0600: 20.7S 136.8E: 235 (435): 025 (045): 1002 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Kirrily has continued to develop with convection now extending to the southeast, the upshear side. The centre position is based on vis imagery as well as Bowen and Hervey Range radars. Observations are informing gale extent and also contributed to our intensity. Earlier Flinders Reef observed 62.8 knots (10min mean). This was likely sampling near the peak winds at that time. Since then we have observed convection wrapping to the southeast and likely have intensified. Intensity is set at 65 knots. Dvorak analysis: DT=3.5 with a curved band wrap of 0.8. MET/PT=4.0 with a 24 hour D+ trend. FT is based on MET/PT however constraints mean this is held at 3.5. FT/CI=3.5 This lags behind the observed intensity. Objective aids: ADT 41kn; AiDT 36kn; DPRINT 57kn; SATCON N/A (all 1-minute wind speeds). Gales are extending well to the south assisted by the environmental flow. Kirrily has continued to become more consolidated with convection much closer to the centre now. The environment is generally conducive for maintaining intensity or slow development until landfall. It is in a low to moderate wind shear environment with generally high moisture in the low-mid levels. CIMSS wind analysis show upper level easterlies over the system, though perhaps slightly more diffluent without having strong outflow channels evident. SSTs remain high at about 30 degrees Celsius. We are observing gales over Island communities and just beginning to see gales or near gales along the mainland coast. Land interactions may limit intensification however, there is still a possibility of slight development to about 70 knots before crossing. Steering is being dominated by a mid-level ridge cradling the system to the south, accelerating the system towards the Queensland coast with estimated landfall in 6 to 12 hours. Given the robust steering pattern developing and the stability of numerical guidance, there is high confidence in the track forecast with landfall expected between Ingham and Bowen, in the vicinity of Townsville, later tonight. From Friday, the system is forecast to weaken as it tracks inland with heavy rain likely and strong winds possible along its path to the west over the continent. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1330 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 pm January 25 3 18.6S 147.7E 30 +6hr 10 pm January 25 3 19.0S 146.7E 55 +12hr 4 am January 26 1 19.6S 145.5E 80 +18hr 10 am January 26 tropical low 20.3S 144.7E 105 +24hr 4 pm January 26 tropical low 21.0S 144.0E 130 +36hr 4 am January 27 tropical low 21.4S 142.5E 165 +48hr 4 pm January 27 tropical low 21.1S 141.8E 200 +60hr 4 am January 28 tropical low 20.6S 141.3E 235 +72hr 4 pm January 28 tropical low 20.3S 140.8E 285 最后于 2024-01-25 14:40:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS31 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 148.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 148.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 19.9S 145.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 21.1S 144.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 21.7S 142.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 147.5E. 25JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250600Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z. // NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.7S 148.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 166 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P APPROACHING THE EASTERN COAST OF QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA AT 12KTS. THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRICAL AS DEEP LAYER CONVECTION SPREADS PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. CLOUD TOPS ARE ALSO SHOWN WARMING ON EIR, LIKELY DUE TO MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS) FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SHEARING THE CENTER OF VORTICITY. AS THE STORM APPROACHES LAND, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED USING ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) AS WELL AS ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM ABOM, WHICH SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO GOOD EFFECT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, BASED IN LARGE PART ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF AS THE SYSTEM PASSED TO THE SOUTH JUST AFTER 0000Z, AND THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW. OF NOTE, THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE LOCATED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE DATA AND AN EARLIER 242342Z ASCAT PASS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS ABRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 250530Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: SINCE THE LAST FORECAST, THE 0000Z ANALYSIS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED, WITH THE INTENSITY SET TO 65KTS AT 0000Z. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS LAND AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS NEAR TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA. THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND INGESTION OF DRY AIR FLOWING EASTWARD OFF THE CONTINENT AND INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE RAPIDLY BY TAU 12, DROPPING TO 35KTS. BY TAU 24, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER LAND AT APPROXIMATELY 24KTS. BY TAU 48, THE STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO BE FULLY DISSIPATED OVER LAND. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS, STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ONCE FULLY OVER LAND, THE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AND SPREAD TO AN 80NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 24. BY TAU 48, THE MODELS DRASTICALLY OPEN TO A 700NM SPREAD ACROSS JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS, WITH HWRF TO THE NORTH AND UKMET TO THE SOUTH. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND AND WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TAU 48. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-25 15:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“基里莉”即将登陆澳大利亚昆士兰州东部沿海
时 间：25日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“基里莉”，KIRRILY
中心位置：南纬18.6度、东经147.7度
强度等级：二级热带气旋
最大风力：11级（30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：980百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州汤斯维尔东北方向约115公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“基里莉”由9级加强到11级
预报结论：“基里莉”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，即将登陆澳大利亚昆士兰州汤斯维尔附近一带沿海，登陆后向西南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。受其影响，25日夜间，昆士兰州东部近海将有7~9级、阵风10~11级的大风，汤斯维尔附近一带沿岸海域将有10~11级、阵风12级的大风；25日夜间至26日白天，昆士兰州东北部有大到暴雨，局地大暴雨。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月25日14时00分）
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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1248 UTC 25/01/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily Identifier: 05U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 18.9S Longitude: 146.4E Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km) Movement Towards: west (261 deg) Speed of Movement: 12 knots (23 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h) Central Pressure: 978 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 85 nm (155 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 85 nm (155 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm (30 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm (30 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm (30 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (25 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: Not Applicable Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 110 nm (205 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 25/1800: 19.4S 145.2E: 025 (050): 040 (075): 992 +12: 26/0000: 20.3S 144.6E: 045 (080): 030 (055): 998 +18: 26/0600: 21.2S 143.9E: 055 (100): 025 (045): 1001 +24: 26/1200: 21.5S 142.9E: 065 (120): 025 (045): 1000 +36: 27/0000: 21.4S 141.7E: 090 (170): 025 (045): 999 +48: 27/1200: 20.9S 141.3E: 110 (205): 025 (045): 999 +60: 28/0000: 20.3S 140.7E: 135 (250): 025 (045): 1000 +72: 28/1200: 20.2S 140.3E: 160 (295): 025 (045): 999 +96: 29/1200: 21.1S 138.4E: 205 (380): 025 (045): 1000 +120: 30/1200: 20.5S 135.2E: 230 (425): 025 (045): 1001 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily is crossing the coast just to the northwest of Townsville. Good confidence in the centre position, which is based on the Townsville (Hervey Range) radar. Observations are informing gale extent and also contributed to our intensity. Between 0900-1100UTC winds were observed at Myrmidon Reef 57kn, Cleveland Bay 52kn, Davies Reef 52kn, and Lucinda Point 44 kn (10min mean). Intensity has been decreased to 60 knots. System is near to the coast Dvorak analysis not applicable. Objective aids were recently reporting: ADT 49kn; AiDT 56kn; DPRINT 48kn; SATCON N/A (all 1-minute wind speeds). As the system approached the coast the southeasterly shear has increased to around 20 knots. The upper outflow is good equatorward, but restricted poleward. Kirrily will weaken quickly as it crosses the coast and moves inland with heavy rain likely along its path. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1930 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 pm January 25 2 18.9S 146.4E 20 +6hr 4 am January 26 1 19.4S 145.2E 50 +12hr 10 am January 26 tropical low 20.3S 144.6E 80 +18hr 4 pm January 26 tropical low 21.2S 143.9E 100 +24hr 10 pm January 26 tropical low 21.5S 142.9E 120 +36hr 10 am January 27 tropical low 21.4S 141.7E 170 +48hr 10 pm January 27 tropical low 20.9S 141.3E 205 +60hr 10 am January 28 tropical low 20.3S 140.7E 250 +72hr 10 pm January 28 tropical low 20.2S 140.3E 295 最后于 2024-01-25 20:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS31 PGTW 251500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 19.3S 146.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 146.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 20.6S 144.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 21.7S 142.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 145.6E. 25JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM GREENVALE, AUSTRALIA HAS SHOWN THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1200Z JUST NORTHWEST OF TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA. TC 07P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER INLAND UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. INTERACTION WITH TERRAIN, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR WILL ENHANCE THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. REMNANTS OF TC 07P WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF AUSTRALIA TOWARDS THE WESTERN COAST BEYOND TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251200Z IS 993 MB.// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-26 04:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：