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WTPS31 PGTW 251500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 19.3S 146.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 146.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 20.6S 144.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 21.7S 142.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 145.6E. 25JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM GREENVALE, AUSTRALIA HAS SHOWN THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1200Z JUST NORTHWEST OF TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA. TC 07P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER INLAND UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. INTERACTION WITH TERRAIN, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR WILL ENHANCE THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. REMNANTS OF TC 07P WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF AUSTRALIA TOWARDS THE WESTERN COAST BEYOND TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251200Z IS 993 MB.// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-26 04:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1910 UTC 25/01/2024 Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily Identifier: 05U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 19.6S Longitude: 145.2E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (242 deg) Speed of Movement: 13 knots (24 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h) Central Pressure: 994 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: Not Applicable Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 26/0000: 20.3S 144.4E: 035 (070): 030 (055): 997 +12: 26/0600: 21.1S 143.7E: 055 (100): 025 (050): 1000 +18: 26/1200: 21.5S 142.8E: 060 (110): 025 (045): 1000 +24: 26/1800: 21.6S 142.1E: 070 (135): 025 (045): 1000 +36: 27/0600: 21.3S 141.3E: 090 (165): 025 (045): 999 +48: 27/1800: 20.7S 140.8E: 105 (200): 025 (045): 999 +60: 28/0600: 20.3S 140.4E: 135 (255): 025 (045): 999 +72: 28/1800: 20.6S 139.8E: 165 (310): 025 (045): 1000 +96: 29/1800: 21.1S 137.5E: 200 (375): 025 (045): 1000 +120: 30/1800: 20.1S 134.1E: 230 (425): 025 (045): 1002 REMARKS: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily has weakened to a tropical low over land to the west of Townsville. There is fair confidence in the centre position, based on the Townsville (Hervey Range) and Greenvale Doppler radars. Dvorak and objective aids are no longer applicable with the system is over land. There is no evidence of any remaining gales associated with the system, based on surface observations or Doppler radar. A cradling mid-level ridge will continue to steer ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily southwest over northern Queensland today, producing heavy rainfall along its path. Beyond that the movement becomes more uncertain as the steering ridge breaks down, but the system is likely to remain over northern or western Queensland into next week. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == There will be no further bulletins for this system.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 am January 26 tropical low 19.6S 145.2E 35 +6hr 10 am January 26 tropical low 20.3S 144.4E 70 +12hr 4 pm January 26 tropical low 21.1S 143.7E 100 +18hr 10 pm January 26 tropical low 21.5S 142.8E 110 +24hr 4 am January 27 tropical low 21.6S 142.1E 135 +36hr 4 pm January 27 tropical low 21.3S 141.3E 165 +48hr 4 am January 28 tropical low 20.7S 140.8E 200 +60hr 4 pm January 28 tropical low 20.3S 140.4E 255 +72hr 4 am January 29 tropical low 20.6S 139.8E 310 -
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ABPW10 PGTW 312200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/312200ZJAN2024-010600ZFEB2024// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 07P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.5S 139.7E, APPROXIMATELY 57 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE REMNANTS OF 07P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MOIST AIR IN THE AREA, AND LOW SURFACE PRESSURES OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, TO THE NORTH, SHOW WESTERLY WINDS OF 24 KTS GUSTING TO 33 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SYSTEM COULD REACH WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH BEFORE TRACKING BACK SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1)// NNNN
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WTPS21 PGTW 010230 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS 07P)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS OF 17.5S 139.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 010200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 139.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 07P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 48 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE REMNANTS OF 07P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MOIST AIR IN THE AREA, AND LOW SURFACE PRESSURES OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, TO THE NORTH, SHOW WESTERLY WINDS OF 26 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SYSTEM COULD REACH WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH BEFORE TRACKING BACK SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 020230Z.// NNNN
ABPW10 PGTW 010300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/010300Z-010600ZFEB2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010221ZFEB2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 07P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 48 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE REMNANTS OF 07P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MOIST AIR IN THE AREA, AND LOW SURFACE PRESSURES OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, TO THE NORTH, SHOW WESTERLY WINDS OF 26 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SYSTEM COULD REACH WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH BEFORE TRACKING BACK SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 010230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-01 12:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS31 PGTW 012100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 012// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010221ZFEB2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 139.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 139.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 17.8S 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 18.3S 138.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 139.5E. 01FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 41 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA SUPPORTS THE REGENERATION OF TC 07P, THEREFORE, JTWC HAS RESUMED WARNINGS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011800Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.// 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 010230).// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 012100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.3S 139.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 41 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: DESPITE THE SYSTEM'S LOCATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND THE ASSOCIATED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE PERSISTING AND BUILDING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION; SPIRAL BANDING HAS ALSO IMPROVED ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH DECREASING (10 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY DOES NOT REVEAL AN EXACT CENTER LOCATION; HOWEVER, THE OVERALL BANDING STRUCTURE IS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED LARGELY ON ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND AND BURKETOWN AIRPORT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND RANGE FROM 32-34 KNOTS SUSTAINED (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) WITH GUSTS 43-47 KNOTS. WHEN ADJUSTED TO A 1-MINUTE AVERAGE, THESE SUSTAINED WINDS RANGE FROM ABOUT 34-36 KNOTS. PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRED AT 011200Z WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT 40 KNOTS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE). MINIMUM SLP VALUES WERE AROUND 992 MB, WHICH CORRESPONDS TO A 40-KNOT INTENSITY USING THE STANDARD WIND PRESSURE RELATIONSHIP. BASED ON THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, SLP VALUES AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND SHOULD TRACK INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND EXCEPT FOR HAFS-A, WHICH SHOWS A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 48 KNOTS BY TAU 12. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN最后于 2024-02-02 04:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS31 PGTW 020300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 139.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 139.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 17.8S 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 18.5S 138.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 19.5S 138.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 139.1E. 02FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 39 NM SOUTH OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020000Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 020300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.3S 139.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 39 NM SOUTH OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NOW VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND RANGE FROM 31-35 KNOTS SUSTAINED (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) WITH GUSTS 43-46 KNOTS. WHEN ADJUSTED TO A 1-MINUTE AVERAGE, THESE SUSTAINED WINDS RANGE FROM ABOUT 33-37 KNOTS. BASED ON THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, SLP VALUES AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND SHOULD TRACK INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN最后于 2024-02-02 10:10:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS31 PGTW 020900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 138.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 138.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 19.1S 138.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.5S 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 138.5E. 02FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 418 NM WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND UNRAVELING RAIN BANDS AS IT ACCELERATED FURTHER INLAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM MOUNT ISA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON INTERPOLATION FROM SURROUNDING WIND AND MSLP OBSERVATIONS. TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECAY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020600Z IS 993 MB.// NNNN
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