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ABIO10 PGTW 232330 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/232330Z-241800ZJAN2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231951ZJAN2024// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/232251ZJAN2024// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 23JAN24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 91.5E, APPROXIMATELY 1185 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 232100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.6S 58.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1S 57.9E, APPROXIMATELY 23 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A PARTIAL 2317157Z METOP-B ASCAT DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE STRONGEST WIND ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION PLACED TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST. A RECENT MAURITIUS OBSERVATION SHOWS A DYNAMIC DROP IN PRESSURE BY 7 MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. WHILE A SHIP OBSERVATION TO SOUTHWEST IS SHOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 28 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PASSING MAURITIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 232300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.// NNNN
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WTIO30 FMEE 240043 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/3/20232024 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 3 2.A POSITION 2024/01/24 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 57.5 E (TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 405 SE: 230 SW: 0 NW: 405 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/24 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 415 SE: 230 SW: 0 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 205 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 240 24H: 2024/01/25 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 415 SE: 270 SW: 0 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0 36H: 2024/01/25 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 345 SE: 270 SW: 415 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 140 48H: 2024/01/26 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SW: 480 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 295 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85 60H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 27.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 490 SW: 510 NW: 350 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 205 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0 72H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 28.2 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 520 SW: 470 NW: 260 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 305 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 31.3 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 370 NW: 0 120H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 33.4 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=1.5+ OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED WITH VERY COLD TOPS, BUT REMAINS MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE CENTRE'S LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE BROAD STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, THE WIND ROTATION TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE RISING TIDE-CORRECTED PRESSURE AT THE PLAISANCE STATION SEEM TO CONFIRM THAT THE CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF MAURITIUS. WITHOUT RELIABLE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30KT. TRACKWISE, SYSTEM 3 KEPT ON SLOWING DOWN AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST TODAY AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST, THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN PROGRESSIVELY NORTH-WESTERLY, FAVORING AN ACCELERATING MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH-EAST. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE INITIAL BROAD STRUCTURE, THE SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN TO THE EAST, AND A LOWERING OF THE STEERING FLOW, SYSTEM 3 SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND MOVE SOUTH-WESTWARDS. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, SYSTEM 3 BENEFITS AT SHORT RANGE FROM EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE ON THE EQUATORIAL COAST, WITH A STRONG MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ON THE TRADE WINDS SIDE REMAINS MARGINAL. THIS SITUATION FAVORS AN INITIAL BROAD STRUCTURE, LIMITING THE SPEED OF DEEPENING. HOWEVER, THANKS TO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE), A MORE COMPACT CORE COULD SUCCESSFULLY DEVELOP AND ALLOW PROGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION. SYSTEM 3 COULD THEN REACH THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS INTENSIFICATION, AS NOT ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING OR EVEN EXTROPICALIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECTED IMPACTS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAURITIUS: - GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT. - HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE UP TO THURSDAY. RAINFALL RANGING FORM 50 TO 100MM IN 24H ESPECIALLY IN THE HILLS. - VERY ROUGH SEA 4 TO 6M FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING. REUNION : - HEAVY RAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PART UP TO FRIDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 100 TO 200MM IN 24HRS, REACHING 300 TO 500MM ON EXPOSED SLOPES. - VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING. RODRIGUES : - VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY.=
最后于 2024-01-24 09:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTIO30 FMEE 240629 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/3/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 2.A POSITION 2024/01/24 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 57.5 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 3 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 390 SE: 270 SW: 0 NW: 335 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/24 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 260 SW: 150 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 110 SW: 55 NW: 120 24H: 2024/01/25 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 390 SE: 230 SW: 100 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 95 36H: 2024/01/25 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 325 SE: 305 SW: 390 NW: 250 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0 48H: 2024/01/26 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 345 SE: 455 SW: 435 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 85 NW: 55 60H: 2024/01/26 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 510 SW: 425 NW: 285 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 0 72H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 480 SW: 400 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 175 NW: 85 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 32.1 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 140 120H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: PT=CI=2.5 OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SUMMITS REMAIN QUITE COLD. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEMS TO BE BETTER DEFINED, WITH THE 0507UTC ASCAT SWATH ALLOWING 30KT WINDS TO BE MEASURED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. IN A BAND CONFIGURATION THAT IS NOT YET WELL DEFINED, A DVORAK ANALYSIS IN 2.5 PT CONFIRMS 30KT VALUES. PRESSURE MEASUREMENTS ON MAURITIUS WITH CORRECTION ALLOW US TO ESTIMATE THE PRESSURE AT THE CENTER AT 995HPA. THE BAPTISM THRESHOLD IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE FIRST STAGES REMAIN TRICKY DUE TO THE STILL BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE CIRCULATION. CURRENTLY LOOPING OR QUASI-STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARDS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH-WESTERLY TROUGH TODAY AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST, THE MAIN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-WESTERLY, FAVORING AN ACCELERATING MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH-EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK HAS IMPROVED, WITH A CONSENSUS AMONG ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN EAST, AND THE EASING OF THE MAIN FLOW, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN SOUTH-WEST. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 IS BENEFITING IN THE SHORT TERM FROM EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE ON THE EQUATORIAL COAST, WITH A POWERFUL MONSOON FLOW. INTENSIFICATION IS BEGINNING AND SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 36-48H THANKS TO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). IT SHOULDN'T BE TOO LONG BEFORE THE 34KT THRESHOLD IS CROSSED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 COULD THEN REACH THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS INTENSIFICATION, SINCE THE MODELS ARE NOT ALL CONVERGING AS TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE MORE INFORMATIVE AS TO THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION CHOSEN. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S SHOULD ENCOURAGE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OR EVEN EXTRATROPICALIZE. EXPECTED IMPACTS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAURITIUS: - GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT. - HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE UP TO THURSDAY. RAINFALL RANGING FORM 50 TO 200MM IN 24H ESPECIALLY IN THE HILLS. - VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING. REUNION : - NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT. - HEAVY RAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PART UP TO FRIDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 100 TO 200MM IN 24HRS, REACHING 300 TO 500MM ON EXPOSED SLOPES. - VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING. RODRIGUES : - VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY.=
最后于 2024-01-24 14:45:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 241240 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/3/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/24 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 57.6 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 405 SE: 230 SW: 0 NW: 325 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/25 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 350 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 205 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 100 24H: 2024/01/25 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 360 SE: 110 SW: 315 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 205 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 65 36H: 2024/01/26 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 415 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 45 48H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 325 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 55 60H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 425 SW: 360 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 75 72H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 95 NW: 55 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 31.8 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: PT=CI=2.5+ AT 08UTC, THE MAURITIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE NAMED THE SYSTEM MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CANDICE. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS RELATIVELY DIMINISHED AND REMAINS MAINLY CONTAINED IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. SUMMITS REMAIN QUITE COLD. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEMS BETTER DEFINED AND THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, AS SHOWN BY THE GPM 37 AND 85 GHZ MICROWAVE PASSES AT 1126Z. THIS OFFSET OF THE CENTER CERTAINLY REFLECTS SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. A DVORAK ANALYSIS IN PT OF 2.5+ CONFIRMS VALUES OF 35KT. IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE FIRST STAGES REMAIN TRICKY DUE TO A WEAK STEERING FLOW. CURRENTLY LOOPING OR QUASI-STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CANDICE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARDS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH-WESTERLY TROUGH TODAY AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH-EAST, THE MAIN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-WEST, FAVORING AN ACCELERATING MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH-EAST. AT 24 HOURS, CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK IS BETTER, WITH A CONSENSUS AMONG ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS. BY FRIDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN EAST, AND THE EASING OF THE MAIN FLOW, CANDICE SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN TURN SOUTH-WEST, ACCELERATING AGAIN. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CANDICE IS BENEFITING IN THE SHORT TERM FROM EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE ON THE EQUATORIAL COAST, WITH A POWERFUL MONSOON FLOW. INTENSIFICATION IS BEGINNING AND SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 36-48H THANKS TO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL, DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). CANDICE COULD THEN REACH THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS INTENSIFICATION, SINCE THE MODELS ARE NOT ALL CONVERGING AS TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE, SO THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE MORE INFORMATIVE AS TO THE CHOICE OF PROGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S SHOULD ENCOURAGE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OR EVEN EXTRATROPICALIZE. EXPECTED IMPACTS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MAURITIUS: - GALE FORCE POSSIBLE DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY. - HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THURSDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE RANGE OF 50MM TO 200MM IN 24HRS, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHLANDS. - VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING. REUNION : - NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY. - HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN HALF, CONTINUING UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 100 TO 200MM IN 24H, REACHING 300 TO 500MM ON EXPOSED RELIEF. - VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING. RODRIGUES : - VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY, WEAKENING THURSDAY EVENING.=
最后于 2024-01-24 21:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 241945 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/3/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/24 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 58.2 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SW: 335 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 205 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 205 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/25 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 350 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 165 24H: 2024/01/25 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 360 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65 36H: 2024/01/26 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 380 SE: 360 SW: 285 NW: 295 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 150 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65 48H: 2024/01/26 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 390 SE: 390 SW: 305 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65 60H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 405 SE: 415 SW: 315 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 185 72H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 415 SE: 445 SW: 335 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 285 SE: 285 SW: 185 NW: 195 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.0- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, INTENSE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE SYSTEM'S NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. CANDICE HAS RESUMED AN EASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT, AS SHOWN BY THE WIND ROTATION AT PLAISANCE STATION (MAURITIUS). THE STORM'S CENTER HAS REMAINED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN THEN SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS, BUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS CONVECTION HAS ALSO TENDED TO WRAP AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CENTER, SHOWING BETTER ORGANIZATION AND A FORMING CURVED BAND, AS WELL AS LIKELY DECREASING EFFECTS OF SHEAR. THIS IMPROVED CONFIGURATION ENABLES TO ESTIMATE A SLIGHT INCREASE OF INTENSITY UP TO 40KT, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS MAINLY ESTIMATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND POSSIBLY ALSO PARTIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS ASYMMETRICAL, WITH WEAKER WINDS IN ITS SOUTH-WEST SEMICIRCLE, AS SHOWN BY A PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS THIS EVENING AT 1736Z. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS BETWEEN 2.5+ AND 3.0. BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST, THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT WILL ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY, WITH THE TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CUT-OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR AND BUILDING HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, CANDICE SHOULD MAKE A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN BEFORE BEING DRIVEN INTO A LOW-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AROUND 35S BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS TO LOWER LEVELS. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 36H THANKS TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). CANDICE COULD THEN REACH THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S SHOULD ENCOURAGE CANDICE TO EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY, WEAKENING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION AND FILLING IN FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS. EXPECTED IMPACTS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MAURITIUS: - GALE FORCE POSSIBLE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING (LOW PROBABILITY). - HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE LOCALLY UNTIL THURSDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE RANGE OF 50MM TO 200MM IN 24HRS, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHLANDS. - VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, WEAKENING FROM FRIDAY EVENING. REUNION : - HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ISLAND, CONTINUING UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 100 TO 300MM IN 24H, REACHING 400 TO 600MM ON EXPOSED HIGH GROUNDS. - VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, WEAKENING FROM FRIDAY EVENING. RODRIGUES : - VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY, WEAKENING THURSDAY EVENING.=
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WTXS21 PGTW 242300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S) REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/232251ZJAN2024// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.4S 57.1E TO 25.8S 61.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 241800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 57.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.1S 57.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 57.9E, APPROXIMATELY 11 NM NORTH OF MAURITIUS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241409Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF A PARTIALLY OBSCURED, ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO HIGH (25-30KT) VWS AND MODERATE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING ALONG A SOUTHEAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 990MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 232300). 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 252300Z. // NNNN
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WTIO30 FMEE 250029 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/3/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/25 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 59.2 E (TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 205 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/25 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 350 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 220 SW: 85 NW: 155 24H: 2024/01/26 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 360 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 100 NW: 165 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65 36H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 380 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 110 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65 48H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 400 SE: 380 SW: 305 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SW: 120 NW: 175 60H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 405 SE: 405 SW: 315 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SW: 140 NW: 185 72H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 31.5 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 425 SE: 435 SW: 335 NW: 315 34 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SW: 150 NW: 195 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 34.5 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.0- OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CANDICE'S CLOUD PATTERN HASN'T REALLY IMPROVED. AFTER A TEMPORARY DROP IN INTENSITY, CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING AGAIN IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CENTER, WHICH COULD BE A SIGN OF RENEWED INTENSIFICATION. NEVERTHELESS, RECENT MICROWAVE DATA (AMSR2 2131Z) SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AREA. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW OBJECTIVE DATA, THE INTENSITY REMAINS ESTIMATED AT 40 KT WITHIN AN ASYMMETRICAL WIND STRUCTURE. THE ESTIMATED POSITION AT 00UTC INDICATES A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND EASTWARDLY SHIFTED TRACK THAN INITIALLY FORECAST. BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT IS ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARDS UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY, WITH THE TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CUT-OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR AND HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS BUILDING TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, CANDICE SHOULD MAKE A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN BEFORE BEING DRIVEN INTO A LOW-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AROUND 35S BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS TO LOWER LEVELS. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24-36H THANKS TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). CANDICE COULD REACH SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S SHOULD LEAD CANDICE TO EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY SATURDAY, WEAKENING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION AND FILLING IN FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS. EXPECTED IMPACTS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MAURITIUS: - GALE FORCE WINDS SEEM QUITE UNLIKELY NOW. - HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE UNTIL FRIDAY. LOCAL RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 50MM TO 200MM IN 24HRS, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGH GROUNDS. - VERY ROUGH SEA 4M, SLOWLY WEAKENING FROM FRIDAY EVENING. REUNION : - HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ISLAND, CONTINUING UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 100 TO 300MM IN 24H, REACHING 400 TO 600MM ON EXPOSED HIGH GROUNDS OVER THE WHOLE EPISODE. - VERY ROUGH SEA 4M, SLOWLY WEAKENING FROM FRIDAY EVENING. RODRIGUES : - VERY ROUGH SEA 4M, SLOWLY WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.=
最后于 2024-01-25 09:15:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 20.8S 58.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 320 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 58.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 22.7S 59.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 24.5S 60.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 25.9S 60.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 27.4S 59.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 31.9S 56.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 35.1S 59.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 58.8E. 25JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 79 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250000Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.8S 58.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 79 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CANDICE) HAVING RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED, WITH DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTION SHIFTING FROM THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 242129Z AMSR2 SATELLITE DERIVED WIND SPEED IMAGE CAPTURED A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION (RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 150NM) WITH AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS WERE OBSERVED NORTH OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SHIP OBSERVATIONS (ID EUMDE20) 150NM NORTH OF THE LLCC REPORTED 35KTS WEST- SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 250000Z. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM POINTE CANON, 280NM EAST OF THE LLCC REPORTED 35KTS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 250000Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED AS HIGHLY FAVORABLE, WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCEPTIONAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT (POINT SOURCE). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NER TO THE NORTH AND STR TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN GRADUALLY TO A SOUTHWARD TRACK FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 36 AS IT EXPERIENCES THE STEERING EFFECTS OF A STR EAST OF THE LLCC. THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THIS INTERVAL, HINDERED ONLY BY THE VERY BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION MENTIONED ABOVE. NEAR TAU 36, A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65KTS IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND MAINTAINS THROUGH TAU 72. A GRADUAL DROP IN INTENSITY AFTER TAU 36 IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOLER SEAS, CROSSING THE 26 C ISOTHERM AROUND 260000Z (TAU 48). COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE TC IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK AND MODERATE AGREEMENT REGARDING INTENSITY. MODELS INDICATE TC 08S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, FOLLOWED BY A TURN SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN OVERALL RISE IN INTENSITY BY TAU 36. HOWEVER, SOME MEMBERS OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS (COAMPS-TC AND GFS) SUGGEST AN INTENSITY DOWNTREND TO TAU 24 BEFORE SHOWING AN OVERALL RISE FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 36 (INTENSIFYING BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36). FINDING PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 36 OF APPROXIMATELY 65 KTS, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TO OCCUR AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 96, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DISSIPATING TC BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT NEARS A PROMINENT STR TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-25 12:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 250740 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/3/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/25 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 59.5 E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 315 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/25 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 415 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85 24H: 2024/01/26 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 425 SW: 415 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 45 36H: 2024/01/26 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 500 SW: 380 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 0 48H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 400 SW: 305 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 75 60H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 31.0 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65 72H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 85 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 35.8 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 405 SE: 425 SW: 335 NW: 220 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=2.5+ CI=3.0- OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD TOPS OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CANDICE HAVE WARMED UP, BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BECOME MORE CURVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS DAWN BROKE, SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THE VISIBLE RANGE MADE IT EASIER TO DISCERN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER. THE LOCATION OF THIS LLCC WAS DETERMINED WITH A GOOD DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE, THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF THE ASCAT-B AT 0446 UTC. THE WIND EXTENSIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND CONFIRM THE ASYMMETRY OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ASCAT-B CLEARLY INDICATES AN INTENSITY OF AROUND 37 KT, AND THEREFORE MAXIMUM AVERAGE WINDS OF 40 KT. THE PRESENT ANALYSIS POINTS TO AN AVERAGE WIND OF 35KT AT 06Z, WHICH WILL BE CORRECTED ON THE BEST-TRACK AT THE NEXT NETWORK. BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM BEGINS A SOUTH-WESTERLY TURN WITH THE TEMPORARY WITHDRAWAL OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, GIVING RISE TO A NORTH-EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE MAIN FLOWS RETURN TO LOWER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM TAKES ON A SOUTH-EASTERLY DIRECTION ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, WHICH SWELLS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DESPITE CANDICE'S ARRIVAL OVER LESS ENERGETIC WATERS, A SHORT WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING, THANKS TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). CANDICE COULD THEN REACH THE STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY NIGHT, OR EVEN FRIDAY MORNING. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH TO NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE DEFINITIVE LOSS OF WARM TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH OF 25AOS SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY, WEAKENING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION WHICH FILLS IN FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS. IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MAURITIUS: - WITHDRAWAL OF NEAR GALE / GALE FORCE WINDS. - WITHDRAWAL OF THE HEAVY RAINS. - ROUGH SEAS (3 METERS) UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING, SLOWLY EASING AFTERWARDS. REUNION: - HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND, CONTINUING UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 150 TO 200 MM IN 24 HOURS. - ROUGH SEAS 3/3.5 METRES, SLOWLY EASING FROM SATURDAY. RODRIGUES : - ROUGH SEAS 3/4 METRES, EASING RAPIDLY TODAY, DROPPING BELOW 3 METRES ON FRIDAY.=
最后于 2024-01-25 15:45:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：