ABIO10 PGTW 220230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/220230Z-221800ZJAN2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211951ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21JAN24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 91.8E, APPROXIMATELY 299 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 212100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.4S 
64.4E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 212057Z AMSR2 DERIVED 
WINDSPEED IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING ALONG A TROUGHING AREA 
OF WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION. MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS (23-27KTS) FILL THE 
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, WITH LIGHTER (10-15KTS) WINDS TO 
THE SOUTH. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTROID OF THE BROAD 
CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90W IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOT) VWS 
OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND, 
THOUGH OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, THE LACK OF A DISTINCT, 
CONSOLIDATED LLCC AT THIS TIME WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL 
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 
27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

WTIO30 FMEE 221352
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/3/20232024
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 3

2.A POSITION 2024/01/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 59.5 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 370

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/23 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 335

24H: 2024/01/23 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 240

36H: 2024/01/24 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 205 SW: 285 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 240

48H: 2024/01/24 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 240 SW: 305 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2024/01/25 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 295 SW: 315 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85

72H: 2024/01/25 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 345 SW: 335 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 435 SW: 370 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 165

120H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 530 SW: 400 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 175

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5

CURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM 03 REMAINS BROAD AND STILL DEVELOPING NORTHEAST
OF THE MASCARENES. THE SURFACE CENTER IS STILL POORLY DEFINED, AS
SHOWN BY THE 0547Z ASCAT PASS, AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS FAR
FROM THE CENTER. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND POSITION HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM SAINT-BRANDON STATION, WHICH IS PROBABLY
LOCATED LESS THAN 50 NM FROM THE CENTER. MAXIMUM WINDS EXCEEDED 30KT
AND LOCALLY 35KT FAR FROM THE CENTER, IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS
SHOWN BY THE ASCAT DATA.

TRACKWISE, SYSTEM 03 IS PROGRESSIVELY TURNING SOUTHWARDS, THEN
SOUTH-WESTWARDS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-EAST . FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THIS
RIDGE AND THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST, THE STEERING
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SWING TO THE NORTH-WEST, LEADING TO FASTER
MOVEMENT SOUTH-EASTWARDS. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS AT SHORT RANGE DUE TO THE
SYSTEM'S BROAD STRUCTURE, WHICH COULD FAVOR A SHIFT OF THE CENTER. BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-WEST AND A LOWER STEERING FLOW, SYSTEM 3 SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND
MOVE SOUTH-WESTWARDS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, SYSTEM 3 BENEFITS FROM AN EXCELLENT EARLY
EQUATORIAL CONVERGENCE WITH A POWERFUL MONSOON FEEDING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ON THE TRADE WINDS' SIDE REMAINS MARGINAL. THIS
SITUATION FAVORS A WIDE STRUCTURE, INITIALLY LIMITING DEEPENING RATE.
HOWEVER, THANKS TO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG
OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE), A MORE COMPACT CORE SHOULD DEVELOP AND ENABLE A MORE
SUSTAINED INTENSIFICATION FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. THIS SCENARIO IS IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST SIMULATIONS FROM AROME AND, TO A LESSER EXTENT,
GFS. SYSTEM 3 COULD THEREFORE REACH THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING OF
THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE SHARP DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL
SOUTH OF 25S SHOULD LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OR EVEN THE
EXTROPICALIZATION OF THE SYSTEM.


EXPECTED IMPACTS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM MID-DAY WEDNESDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, REACHING 50MM TO 100MM
AND LOCALLY 150MM IN 24H ON THE HIGHLANDS.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS 4 TO 6M FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY.

REUNION :
- HEAVY RAINS FROM TUESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN HALF,
REACHING 100MM TO 200MM IN 24H, AND EVEN 300 TO 500MM OVER EXPOSED
HIGHLANDS.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY

RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M TO 6M FROM TUESDAY=

ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/221800Z-
231800ZJAN2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22JAN24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 12.3S 91.5E, APPROXIMATELY 315NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AND HAD 
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 220900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.4S 64.4E HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 59.5E, APPROXIMATELY 243 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. THE CONVECTION WAS PREVIOUSLY SCATTERED 
WITHIN AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS AND HAS 
NOW CONSOLIDATED TO A DISCERNABLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
THAT IS VISIBLE ON ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY.  SATELLITE 
ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS THE CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST 
LEAVING THE LLCC MOSTLY EXPOSED.  ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
LOOPS SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASING AND INSULATING THE CIRCULATION ON 
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92S IS IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GATHER MOMENTUM AND CONTINUE DEEPENING 
AND CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, PASSING TO THE EAST OF 
MAURITIUS NEAR 240600Z.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

WTIO30 FMEE 221830
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/3/20232024
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 3

2.A POSITION 2024/01/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 60.3 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 370

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/23 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 0 SW: 250 NW: 315

24H: 2024/01/23 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 195 SW: 270 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 140

36H: 2024/01/24 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 205 SW: 285 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 140

48H: 2024/01/24 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 240 SW: 305 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2024/01/25 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 295 SW: 315 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

72H: 2024/01/25 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 345 SW: 335 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/26 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 435 SW: 370 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 165

120H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 30.2 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 530 SW: 400 NW: 285

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN SYSTEM 3. THE
CENTER IS STILL POORLY DEFINED (GPM AND F17 MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM
1408Z AND 1438Z DO NOT HELP TO LOCATE THE CENTER PRECISELY) AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW DATA, SYSTEM 3 IS MAINTAINED AT THE 30KT
DISTURBED ZONE STAGE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, APART
FROM A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS. FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARDS, WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THIS RIDGE AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST, THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN PROGRESSIVELY
NORTH-WESTWARDS, FAVOURING A MORE RAPID MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-EAST. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S BROAD
STRUCTURE, WHICH COULD FAVOR A SHIFT OF THE CENTER. AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND A
DROP IN THE LEVEL OF THE MAIN FLOW, SYSTEM 3 SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND
MOVE SOUTH-WESTWARDS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, SYSTEM 3 BENEFITS IN THE SHORT TERM FROM
EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE ON THE EQUATORIAL COAST, WITH POWERFUL FEEDING
OF THE MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ON THE ALIZE SIDE REMAINS
MARGINAL. THIS SITUATION FAVORS A WIDE STRUCTURE AT THE START OF
LIFE, LIMITING THE SPEED OF DEEPENING. HOWEVER, WITH AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW VERTICAL SHEAR
AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE), A MORE COMPACT CORE SHOULD
SUCCEED IN DEVELOPING AND ALLOW FOR MORE MARKED INTENSIFICATION FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.

EXPECTED IMPACTS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY, EXTENDING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4 TO 6M FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY.

REUNION :
- HEAVY RAIN FROM TUESDAY EVENING OVER SOUTHERN HALF, CONTINUING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 100 TO 200MM IN 24HRS,
REACHING 300 TO 500MM ON EXPOSED RELIEF.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY.

RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4 TO 6M FROM WEDNESDAY.=

WTIO30 FMEE 230023
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/3/20232024
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 3

2.A POSITION 2024/01/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 60.8 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 370

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/23 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 315

24H: 2024/01/24 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 195 SW: 270 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 140

36H: 2024/01/24 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 205 SW: 285 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 150

48H: 2024/01/25 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 240 SW: 305 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 150

60H: 2024/01/25 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 295 SW: 405 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

72H: 2024/01/26 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 345 SW: 335 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 435 SW: 370 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 165

120H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND SYSTEM 3 HAS INCREASED
SLIGHTLY, BUT WITHOUT BECOMING MORE STRUCTURED OR COMPACT AROUND A
SPECIFIC CENTER. CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT
RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THE GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
FROM 2144Z CONFIRMS THIS LACK OF ORGANIZATION AROUND THE CENTER.
FURTHERMORE, THE 00Z OBSERVATION FROM SAINT BRANDON INDICATES THAT
THE WINDS HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO THE NORTH-WEST WITH A PRESSURE OF
1001HPA. AS THE STATION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 150KM NORTH-WEST OF THE
CENTER, THE PRESSURE MAY BE REVISED DOWNWARDS A LITTLE AT THE NEXT
ADVOSIRY. IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER AVAILABLE DATA, SYSTEM 3 IS
MAINTAINED AS A ZONE OF DISTRUBED WEATHER WITH 30KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SYSTEM 3
IS MOVING PROGRESSIVELY SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-WEST, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THIS RIDGE AND THE
ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST, THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN
PROGRESSIVELY TO THE NORTH-WEST, FAVORING A MORE RAPID MOVEMENT TO
THE SOUTH-EAST. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S BROAD
STRUCTURE, WHICH COULD FAVOR AN OFFSET OF THE CENTER. AT THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-WEST
AND A DROP IN THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW, SYSTEM 3 SHOULD SLOW
DOWN AND MOVE SOUTH-WESTWARDS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, SYSTEM 3 BENEFITS IN THE SHORT TERM FROM
EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE ON THE EQUATORIAL COAST, WITH POWERFUL FEEDING
OF THE MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ON THE ALIZE SIDE REMAINS
MARGINAL. THIS SITUATION FAVORS A WIDE STRUCTURE AT THE START OF
LIFE, LIMITING THE SPEED OF DEEPENING. HOWEVER, WITH AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW VERTICAL SHEAR
AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE), A MORE COMPACT CORE SHOULD
SUCCEED IN DEVELOPING AND ALLOW FOR MORE MARKED INTENSIFICATION FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. SYSTEM 3 COULD THEN REACH THE STAGE OF A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S SHOULD ENCOURAGE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OR EVEN
EXTROPICALIZE.

EXPECTED IMPACTS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY, EXTENDING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4 TO 6M FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY.

REUNION :
- HEAVY RAIN FROM TUESDAY EVENING OVER SOUTHERN HALF, CONTINUING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 100 TO 200MM IN 24HRS,
REACHING 300 TO 500MM ON EXPOSED RELIEF.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY.

RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4 TO 6M FROM WEDNESDAY.=

WTIO30 FMEE 230631
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/3/20232024
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 3

2.A POSITION 2024/01/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 59.4 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 500

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/23 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 195 SW: 260 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 150

24H: 2024/01/24 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 205 SW: 280 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 155

36H: 2024/01/24 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 215 SW: 295 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 165

48H: 2024/01/25 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 260 SW: 305 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75

60H: 2024/01/25 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 305 SW: 325 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75

72H: 2024/01/26 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 350 SW: 345 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 455 SW: 380 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 195

120H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND SYSTEM 3 HAS INCREASED
SLIGHTLY, BUT WITHOUT BECOMING MORE STRUCTURED OR COMPACT AROUND A
SPECIFIC CENTER. CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM'S WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES, AND ALSO BEGINS TO APPEAR IN THE EAST, BUT
REMAINS RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THE GPM MICROWAVE
IMAGE AT 0039Z ALLOWS US TO DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE CENTER
OFFSHORE NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. THE ASCAT PASS AT 0440Z, WHICH
ARRIVED TOO LATE TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT, MEASURES WINDS AT 30KT IN
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF SYSTEM 3, WHICH IS MAINTAINED AS A ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER. THIS ASCAT PASS WILL BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT DURING
THE 12UTC ADVISORY.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SYSTEM 3
IS MOVING SOUTH-WEST, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM, WITH SLOW MOVEMENT CONTINUING TO
SLOW DOWN UNTIL WEDNESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH THE EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THIS RIDGE AND THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST,
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN PROGRESSIVELY TO THE NORTH-WEST, FAVORING
A MORE RAPID MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH-EAST. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE
ON THIS SCENARIO. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND A DROP IN THE LEVEL OF THE
STEERING FLOW, SYSTEM 3 SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND MOVE SOUTH-WESTWARDS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, SYSTEM 3 BENEFITS IN THE SHORT TERM FROM
EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE, WITH POWERFUL FEEDING
OF THE MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ON THE TRADE SIDE REMAINS
MARGINAL. THIS SITUATION FAVORS A WIDE STRUCTURE AT THE START OF
LIFE, LIMITING DEEPENING RATE. HOWEVER, WITH AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW VERTICAL SHEAR,
GOOD SUPPLY OF MOIST AIR AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE), A
MORE COMPACT CORE SHOULD MANAGE TO DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE
INTENSIFICATION. SYSTEM 3 COULD THEN REACH THE STAGE OF A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S SHOULD LEAD THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OR EVEN
EXTROPICALIZE.

EXPECTED IMPACTS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY, EXTENDING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4 TO 6M FROM WEDNESDAY.

REUNION :
- HEAVY RAIN FROM TUESDAY EVENING OVER SOUTHERN HALF, CONTINUING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 100 TO 200MM IN 24HRS,
REACHING 300 TO 500MM ON EXPOSED RELIEF.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY.

RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4 TO 6M FROM WEDNESDAY.=

WTIO30 FMEE 231234
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/3/20232024
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 3

2.A POSITION 2024/01/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 58.7 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 425

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/24 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 345 SW: 260 NW: 360

24H: 2024/01/24 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 100 NW: 150

36H: 2024/01/25 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 400 SW: 295 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 120 NW: 155

48H: 2024/01/25 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 415 SW: 305 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 155

60H: 2024/01/26 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 445 SW: 325 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 150 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75

72H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 470 SW: 345 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 155 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 29.3 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 530 SW: 380 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 185 NW: 185

120H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION AROUND SYSTEM 3 HAS NOT EVOLVED
SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT SEEMS TO STRENGTHEN AROUND THE CENTER, WITHOUT
HOWEVER BECOMING MORE STRUCTURED OR COMPACT. MODERATE EASTERLY WIND
SHEAR (15-20KT) AND DRY AIR STILL PRESENT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERE MAY EXPLAIN THIS DELAY IN THE INTENSIFICATION. THE CENTER
IS APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND OF MAURITIUS, WHICH IS
BEGINNING TO BE AFFECTED BY CONVECTION. THE ANALYZED MAXIMUM WIND
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30KT, AS SUGGESTED BY THE ASCAT PASSES OF 04H40
AND 0527UTC.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THERE IS A NOTABLE SHORT-TERM CHANGE COMPARED WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SYSTEM 3 IS STILL MOVING SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE
SYSTEM, BUT SHIFTS FURTHER WEST THAN FORECAST, OVER THE MAURITIAN
COAST LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MOVEMENT THEN SLOWS DOWN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.       FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF
THIS RIDGE AND THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST, THE
STEERING FLOW WILL TURN PROGRESSIVELY TO THE NORTH-WEST, FAVORING A
MORE RAPID MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH-EAST. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE ON
THIS SCENARIO. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND A DROP IN THE LEVEL OF THE
STEERING FLOW, SYSTEM 3 SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND MOVE SOUTH-WESTWARDS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, SYSTEM 3 BENEFITS IN THE SHORT TERM FROM
EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE, WITH POWERFUL FEEDING
OF THE MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ON THE TRADE SIDE REMAINS
MARGINAL. THIS SITUATION FAVORS A WIDE STRUCTURE AT THE START OF
LIFE, LIMITING DEEPENING RATE. HOWEVER, WITH AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW VERTICAL SHEAR,
GOOD SUPPLY OF MOIST AIR AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE), A
MORE COMPACT CORE COULD MANAGE TO DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE
INTENSIFICATION. SYSTEM 3 COULD THEN REACH THE STAGE OF A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS INTENSIFICATION, AS NOT ALL
MODELS AGREE ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE. AT THE END OF
THE WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S SHOULD LEAD THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OR EVEN EXTROPICALIZE.

EXPECTED IMPACTS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY, EXTENDING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4 TO 6M FROM WEDNESDAY.

REUNION :
- HEAVY RAIN FROM TUESDAY EVENING OVER SOUTHERN HALF, CONTINUING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 100 TO 200MM IN 24HRS,
REACHING 300 TO 500MM ON EXPOSED RELIEF.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY.

RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4 TO 6M FROM WEDNESDAY.=

WTIO30 FMEE 231854
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/3/20232024
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 3

2.A POSITION 2024/01/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 57.9 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 425

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/24 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 425

24H: 2024/01/24 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 295 SW: 150 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 280

36H: 2024/01/25 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 370 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 120

48H: 2024/01/25 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 335 SW: 445 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

60H: 2024/01/26 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 530 SW: 445 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2024/01/26 18 UTC: 27.8 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 575 SW: 445 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 0

120H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 32.9 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, BUT IS STILL VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT IN THE
CIRCULATION'S EASTERN SECTOR. THE POSITION OF THE CENTER IS STILL
UNCLEAR DUE TO THE WIDE STRUCTURE. THE POSITION AND PRESSURE OF THE
CENTER HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED USING OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PLAISANCE
STATION IN MAURITIUS. MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 30KT SEEM CONSISTENT
WITH THE AFTERNOON HY-2D AND SMOS SWATHS.

TRACKWISE, SYSTEM 3 HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARDS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST TOMORROW
AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST, THE STEERING
FLOW WILL TURN PROGRESSIVELY NORTH-WESTERLY, FAVORING AN ACCELERATING
MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH-EAST. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE INITIAL BROAD STRUCTURE, THE SHORT-TERM
MOVEMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN TO THE EAST, AND A
LOWERING OF THE STEERING FLOW, SYSTEM 3 SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND MOVE
SOUTH-WESTWARDS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, SYSTEM 3 BENEFITS AT SHORT RANGE FROM
EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE ON THE EQUATORIAL COAST, WITH A STRONG MONSOON
FLOW. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ON THE TRADE WINDS SIDE REMAINS MARGINAL.
THIS SITUATION FAVORS AN INITIAL BROAD STRUCTURE, LIMITING THE SPEED
OF DEEPENING. HOWEVER, THANKS TO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE), A MORE COMPACT CORE COULD
SUCCESSFULLY DEVELOP AND ALLOW PROGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION. SYSTEM 3
COULD THEN REACH THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THIS INTENSIFICATION, AS NOT ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE
CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING OR EVEN
EXTROPICALIZATION OF THE SYSTEM.

EXPECTED IMPACTS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE UP TO THURSDAY. RAINFALL RANGING FORM 50 TO
100MM IN 24H ESPECIALLY IN THE HILLS.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4 TO 6M FROM WEDNESDAY.

REUNION :
- HEAVY RAIN FROM TUESDAY EVENING OVER SOUTHERN HALF, CONTINUING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 100 TO 200MM IN 24HRS,
REACHING 300 TO 500MM ON EXPOSED SLOPES.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING.

RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY.=

WTXS21 PGTW 232300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.5S 57.5E TO 24.3S 60.0E

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY

ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT

IMAGERY AT 232300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED

NEAR 20.1S 57.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09

KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 

NEAR 19.6S 58.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1S 57.9E, APPROXIMATELY 23 NM 

EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 

IMAGERY (EIR) AND A PARTIAL 2317157Z METOP-B ASCAT DEPICT A 

CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE STRONGEST 

WIND ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION PLACED TO THE WEST-

NORTHWEST. A RECENT MAURITIUS OBSERVATION SHOWS A DYNAMIC DROP IN 

PRESSURE BY 7 MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, WHILE A SHIP OBSERVATION TO 

SOUTHWEST SHOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 28 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 

INDICATES THAT 92S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 

FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO 

MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA 

SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS 

CURRENTLY PASSING MAURITIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED 

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 

AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 

998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 

CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 

242300Z.//

NNNN