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WTIO30 FMEE 251416 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/3/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/25 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 60.6 E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 17 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 315 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/26 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 415 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 140 24H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SW: 425 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 55 36H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SW: 325 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 0 48H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 65 60H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 85 72H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 34.0 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 85 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=3.0 CI=3.0- OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE. HOWEVER, THE CLOUD CURVATURE BECAME MORE PRONOUNCED. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER WAS MUCH EASIER TO DISCERN IN THE ANIMATIONS OF THE LATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES. THE GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1032Z SHOWS A DISTRESSED INTERNAL STRUCTURE. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO A TEMPORARY NORTHERLY STRESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CANDICE'S INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 40 KT BY INERTIA, AND SUPPORTED BY A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS (MET ADJUSTED) AS WELL AS THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DATA. BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM BEGINS A SOUTH-WESTERLY TURN WITH THE TEMPORARY WITHDRAWAL OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, GIVING RISE TO A NORTH-EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE MAIN FLOWS RETURN TO LOWER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM TAKES ON A SOUTH-EASTERLY DIRECTION ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, WHICH SWELLS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DESPITE CANDICE'S ARRIVAL OVER LESS ENERGETIC WATERS, A SHORT WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING, THANKS TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). CANDICE COULD THEN REACH THE STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY NIGHT, OR EVEN FRIDAY MORNING. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH TO NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE DEFINITIVE LOSS OF WARM TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH OF 25AOS SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY, WEAKENING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION WHICH FILLS IN FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS. IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MAURITIUS: - ROUGH SEAS (3 METERS) UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING, SLOWLY EASING OFF AFTER THAT. REUNION: - MODERATE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND, CONTINUING UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. - ROUGH SEAS 3/3.5 METERS, SLOWLY EASING FROM SATURDAY. RODRIGUES : - ROUGH SEAS 3/4 METRES, DIMINISHING RAPIDLY TODAY, DROPPING BELOW 3 METRES ON FRIDAY.=
最后于 2024-01-25 22:20:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 251500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 23.6S 60.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 320 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 60.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 25.5S 61.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 27.0S 61.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 28.4S 60.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 30.6S 58.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 34.3S 57.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 35.5S 58.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 60.6E. 25JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 272 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251200Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 251500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 23.6S 60.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 272 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CANDICE) TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19KTS. A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS CLEARLY VISIBLE WITH MINIMAL OUTFLOW AND SMALL AMOUNTS OF DEEP LAYER CONVECTION SPROUTING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THERE IS MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 26C. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM IS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST WITH AN ENHANCED GRADIENT INDUCED BY A SHARP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 251030Z GPM 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A RAGGED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ANIMATED METEOSAT-9 MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS WAS BASED ON AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 251200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 26-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S (CANDICE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 24 ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE EAST BEFORE TRACKING ON A SOUTHWESTERN COURSE FROM TAU 48- 72 AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS AND BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND THE VORTEX BECOMES SHALLOW, THE LLCC EMBEDS UNDER A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE 12 HOURS, PEAKING AT 55KTS BEFORE BEGINNING ITS DECLINE AT TAU 24. ELEVATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-25KTS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH, AND RAPIDLY DECREASING SSTS OF 20-25C ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE TC 08S TO WEAKEN QUICKLY. IT WILL BE A RACE TO DETERMINE WHETHER TC 08S WILL DISSIPATE OR TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM, BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER WATER AT TAU 72 AND FULLY DISSIPATE TO 30KTS NO LATER THAN TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, WITH A 100NM SPREAD AT THAT TIME. THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW A WIDER BREADTH IN CROSS-TRACK SPREAD WHEN THE SYSTEM TURNS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY TAU 72, OPENING TO A 240NM SPREAD WITH ECMWF TO THE WEST AND NAVGEM TO THE EAST. THE TRACK DIRECTION BECOMES MORE HAZY AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY BY TAU 96 WITH A GENERALLY EASTERN DIRECTION. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY IS MOSTLY AGREED UPON BY THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS TO PEAK BY TAU 24 BEFORE DECLINING TO DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-26 04:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 251918 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/3/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/25 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 61.4 E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 315 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/26 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 425 SW: 415 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 155 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 55 24H: 2024/01/26 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SW: 380 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 0 36H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SW: 335 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 85 48H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 31.6 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65 60H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 33.7 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 85 72H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 85 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.5- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE BAND CONFIGURATION HAS IMPROVED, WITH A WRAP OF A FULL TURN OR MORE, BUT PROBABLY CAUSED BY THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR CUTTING THE CONTINUITY OF THE BAND. IN SUCH A CONFIGURATION, OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SEEM A LITTLE LOW, AND THE REUNION RSMC OPTS FOR A SLIGHTLY LOWER T OF 3.5, ALTHOUGH THE ASCAT PASS OF 1713UTC LEAVES MAXIMUM VALUES OF 40KT. CANDICE'S MAXIMUM WINDS ARE THEN ESTIMATED AT 45KT AT 18UTC, LEAVING THE SYSTEM STILL IN THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. THE MARKED ACCELERATION OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS SLIGHTLY ALTERED THE TRACK, WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH ARRIVES TO THE SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM BEGINS A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN, WITH THE TEMPORARY WITHDRAWAL OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, WHICH GIVES RISE TO A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE MAIN FLOWS RETURN TO LOWER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM RESUMES A SOUTH-EASTERLY DIRECTION ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, WHICH SWELLS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DESPITE CANDICE'S ARRIVAL OVER LESS ENERGETIC WATERS, THE SHORT WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL MID-DAY FRIDAY, THANKS TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). CANDICE COULD THEN REACH THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY MORNING. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH TO NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE DEFINITIVE LOSS OF WARM TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH OF 25AOS SHOULD ENCOURAGE CANDICE TO EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY, THEN INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT FILLS IN FROM SUNDAY. WITH CANDICE NOW FURTHER AWAY, THE IMPACT ON THE MASCAREIGNES IS REDUCED AND CANDICE NO LONGER POSES A RISK TO INHABITED LAND.=
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WTIO30 FMEE 260055 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/3/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/26 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.1 S / 61.4 E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55 24H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 95 36H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 305 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 100 48H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 32.6 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 165 60H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 34.3 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 315 SE: 350 SW: 325 NW: 185 72H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 34.6 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.5- CANDICE'S BAND CONFIGURATION IS CHANGING. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE STRUCTURED AND IS ONCE AGAIN SHOWING AN ALMOST COMPLETE WRAP. IN THIS CONFIGURATION, AND GIVEN THE CONSERVATIVE TREND OF OTHER OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES, THE CI VALUE OF 3.5- CAN BE MAINTAINED, I.E. WINDS OF 45KT. CANDICE REMAINS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. AFTER THE ACCELERATION NOTED ON THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME, THE SYSTEM'S TRACK CHANGED LITTLE, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENED TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH MOVED IN TO THE SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM BEGINS A SOUTH-WESTERLY TURN, WITH THE TEMPORARY WITHDRAWAL OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, WHICH GIVES RISE TO A NORTH-EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE MAIN FLOWS RETURN TO LOWER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM RESUMES A SOUTH-EASTERLY TURN AT THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, WHICH SWELLS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DESPITE CANDICE'S ARRIVAL OVER LESS ENERGETIC WATERS, THE SHORT WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL MID-DAY FRIDAY, THANKS TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). CANDICE COULD THEN REACH THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY MORNING. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH TO NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE DEFINITIVE LOSS OF WARM TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH OF 25AOS SHOULD ENCOURAGE CANDICE TO EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY, THEN INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT FILLS IN FROM SUNDAY. WITH CANDICE NOW FURTHER AWAY, THE IMPACT ON THE MASCAREIGNES IS REDUCED AND CANDICE NO LONGER POSES A RISK TO INHABITED LAND.=
最后于 2024-01-26 09:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 260300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 25.4S 61.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 61.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 26.6S 61.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 27.9S 60.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 29.7S 58.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 31.9S 57.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 61.1E. 26JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260000Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 260300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 25.4S 61.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 381 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 252356Z GMI 37GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CANDICE) HAVING BEGUN TO ENCOUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LAYERS, AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OFFSET ENTIRELY TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TC. A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), BEST OBSERVED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, CAN BE SEEN WITH EXTENSIVE SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IVO OF THE LLCC HAVE SHARPLY DROPPED TO NEARLY 26C SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STR EAST OF THE LLCC AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 260030Z CIMSS AIDT: 41 KTS AT 260030Z CIMSS DPRINT: 42 KTS AT 260100Z CIMSS DMINT: 41 KTS AT 262353Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 26-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12, AT WHICH TIME THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING STR EAST OF THE LLCC WILL TURN THE TC TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 48. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ASSESSED AS MARGINAL AT 260000Z, ARE FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY TAU 12, CAUSING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE TC UNTIL COMPLETE DISSIPATION OCCURS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 08S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12, TURNING TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND MAINTAINING FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 48. A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 139NM IS PRESENT AT TAU 48 BETWEEN JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBER, CONVEYING MODERATE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 08S HAS REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, COMING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION PRIOR TO TAU 48. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 48 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 48 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-26 10:40:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“坎迪丝”向偏南方向移动
时 间：26日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“坎迪丝”，CANDICE
中心位置：南纬26.1度、东经61.4度
强度等级：热带风暴
最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：990百帕
参考位置：马达加斯加马纳卡拉东偏南方向约1430公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“坎迪丝”由8级加强到9级
预报结论：“坎迪丝”将以每小时25-30公里的速度向偏南方向移动，强度略有增强后逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月26日08时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 260645
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/3/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE)
2.A POSITION 2024/01/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.1 S / 61.5 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 465 SW: 565 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/26 18 UTC: 27.1 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 500 SW: 530 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 270 SW: 315 NW: 85
24H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 415 SW: 510 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 0
36H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 120
48H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 32.5 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 130
60H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
AFTER A PHASE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND 00UTC, THE CONVECTION
AROUND CANDICE HAS WEAKEN OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. A BAND OF DRY AIR
HAS GRADUALLY WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER FROM THE WEST. THE ASCAT
PASS AT 0430Z SHOWS A GENERALLY ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE, WITH A GALE
EXTENDING FAR TO THE SOUTH AND RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE AROUND 45KT, WITH A FEW STORM-FORCE VALUES, BUT FAR FROM THE
CENTER. CANDICE REMAINS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 45KT.
AS CANDICE BEGAN TO TURN SOUTH, IT SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE. NO REAL
CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY ON THE OVERALL TRACK, BUT THIS SLOWDOWN
SLIGHTLY MODIFIES THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST BY MOVING A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST. CANDICE'S MOVEMENT IS ESSENTIALLY DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL FORCE IT TO MOVE
SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TODAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE DIRECTING FLOWS RESUME AT LOWER
LEVELS. THE SYSTEM RESUMES SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
SHORT WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION THANKS TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
(LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE) SEEMS
TO BE COMING TO AN END, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING THE STRONG
TROPICAL STORM STAGE IS RECEDING. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, NORTH TO
NORTH-WEST SEGMENT SHEARING WILL STRENGTHEN, THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR
INTO THE CENTER AND THE DEFINITIVE LOSS OF WARM TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH
OF 25°S SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY, THEN AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT FILLS IN FROM SUNDAY.
NO IMPACT ON LAND.
最后于 2024-01-26 18:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“坎迪丝”向南偏西方向移动
时 间：26日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“坎迪丝”，CANDICE
中心位置：南纬26.1度、东经61.5度
强度等级：热带风暴
最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：985百帕
参考位置：马达加斯加马纳卡拉东偏南方向约1440公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“坎迪丝”由8级加强到9级
预报结论：“坎迪丝”将以每小时10-15公里左右的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年01月26日14时00分）
-
WTIO30 FMEE 261244 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/3/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 2.A POSITION 2024/01/26 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 61.8 E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 465 SW: 565 NW: 250 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 0 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 170 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 490 SW: 530 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SW: 295 NW: 10 24H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 380 SW: 425 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 10 36H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 130 48H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 33.7 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: BASED ON THE ASCAT PASSES AT 0450Z AND 0502Z AND THE SMOS IMAGE AT 0226Z, CANDICE'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARDS SINCE 00UTC. THE BEST-TRACK HAS THEREFORE BEEN MODIFIED TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50KT IN THE SOUTH-WEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AT 00 AND 06Z. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CANDICE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIMITED TO A PERIMETER VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER, NOTABLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE RSMC THEREFORE MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 50KT. IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. CANDICE'S MOVEMENT IS ESSENTIALLY DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL FORCE IT TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE MAIN FLOWS RESUME AT LOWER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM RESUMES A SOUTH-EASTERLY MOVEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, AFTER ITS SHORT PASSAGE TO THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM STAGE TODAY, CANDICE IS EXPERIENCING A STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH TO NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR APPROACHING THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION, THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER WATERS TO THE SOUTH MEANS THAT CANDICE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN EVOLVE INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT FILLS IN FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS. NO IMPACT ON LAND.=
最后于 2024-01-26 21:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 261500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 26.8S 62.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 62.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 28.0S 61.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 29.9S 60.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 32.1S 59.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 261500Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 62.3E. 26JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 547 NM SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261200Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 261500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 26.8S 62.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 547 NM SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (CANDICE) TRANSITING SOUTHEAST AT 10KTS. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TRANSITING ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT HAS BEGUN TO INFLUENCE THE STORM AS TC 08S HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW OVER THE LAST TWELVE HOURS. THE PRIMARY HINDRANCE FOR INTENSIFICATION IS LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 24-25C, DESPITE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS APPARENT IN THE CLEARER SKIES TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION OF 26.8S 62.5E WAS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED IMAGERY AND AN EWSG-2 262215Z PASS DEPICTING AN ASYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A SWATH OF DEEP LAYERS OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS WAS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 261130Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 25-26 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (TAU 36) AS IT CONTINUES DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. SST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, REMAINING BELOW 25C. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR (20-30KTS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WHICH WILL FULLY ENGULF THE SYSTEM IN THE SHORT-TERM, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RAPID WEAKENING OF TC 08S, LEADING TO FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 08S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AGREEMENT IS FURTHER JUSTIFIED WITH A MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK DIFFERENTIAL OF 110NM BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY AND CONSISTENTLY WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION AT 30KTS BY TAU 36. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-27 04:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：