WTIO30 FMEE 261845
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/3/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 61.2 E
(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 465 SW: 565 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 455 SW: 465 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 140

24H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 455 SW: 470 NW: 240

36H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 32.7 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 455 SW: 480 NW: 250




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
CANDICE HAS ENTERED A PHASE OF SUSTAINED WEAKENING. IN FACT, THE
METEOR HAS JUST BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DUE TO
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, CAUSED BY DETRIMENTAL
HIGH-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE PRESENCE OF UNDERLYING FRESH
WATER. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OBSERVED IN THE SOUTH-EAST QUADRANT
DURING THE PREVIOUS NETWORK IS NOW NON-EXISTENT, AND THEREFORE NO
LONGER ALLOWS FOR CLASSIC DVORAK ANALYSIS. IN THIS CONFIGURATION AND
IN THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE DATA, PRECISE IDENTIFICATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLICATED.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
CANDICE'S MOVEMENT IS ESSENTIALLY DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL FORCE IT TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE MAIN FLOWS RESUME AT LOWER
LEVELS. THE SYSTEM RESUMES A SOUTH-EASTERLY MOVEMENT ALONG THE
SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, CANDICE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
STRENGTHENING NORTH TO NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT, AS WELL AS AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR APPROACHING THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION, THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER WATERS TO THE SOUTH MEANS THAT
CANDICE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BEFORE BECOMING AN
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT FILLS IN FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS.

NO IMPACT ON LAND.=

WTIO30 FMEE 270116 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/3/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 
2.A POSITION 2024/01/27 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.5 S / 60.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND 
SIXTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 815 SW: 705 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 500 SW: 370 NW: 220
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 740 SW: 545 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 350 SW: 305 NW: 140
24H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 31.5 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 715 SW: 565 NW: 295
36H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 33.6 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL 
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CANDICE IS CONTINUING ITS PHASE OF SUSTAINED 
WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH
DETRIMENTAL HIGH-LEVEL SHEAR FOR ITS STRUCTURE, AND THE PRESENCE OF 
UNDERLYING COOL WATERS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS INSIGNIFICANT. THE 2135Z 
AMSR-2 PASS REVEALS A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE, WITH 
ASYMMETRICAL STRONG WINDS IN THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
CANDICE SHOULD STABILIZE AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW MORE HOURS 
BEFORE DEFINITIVELY LOSING ITS TROPICAL ATTRIBUTES.
IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. CANDICE'S 
MOVEMENT IS ESSENTIALLY DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST 
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL FORCE IT TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE 
DAY. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENED, THE STEERING FLOWS 
RESUMED AT LOWER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM RESUMES SOUTHEASTWARD 
MOVEMENT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, CANDICE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE 
STRENGTHENING NORTH TO NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR ALOFT, AS WELL AS 
DRY AIR INTRUSION. IN ADDITION, THE PRESENCE OF COLDER WATERS IS HELPING 
TO WEAKEN CANDICE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS IT BEGINS ITS 
EXTRATROPICALIZATION PHASE. ON SUNDAY, IT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN 
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT FILLS IN. 
NO IMPACT ON LAND. 

WTXS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 005    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z --- NEAR 27.5S 60.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S 60.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 29.5S 59.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 31.8S 59.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 28.0S 60.6E.
27JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
520 NM SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
270000Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE)    
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 27.5S 60.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 520 NM SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DEVOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, EIR IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS, ASSOCIATED WITH DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR,
ADVECTING AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. THIS DRIER AIR
IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN A 262106Z N20 ATMS 88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 270100Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 270100Z
   CIMSS SATCON: 45 KTS AT 262030Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR. AFTER TAU 24,
THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STALL AND TRACK EQUATORWARD
AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A STEADY WEAKENING TREND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN

全球热带气旋监测公报

WTIO30 FMEE 270705
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/3/20232024
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.6 S / 60.6 E
(TWENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 815 SW: 705 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 500 SW: 370 NW: 220

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 530 SW: 380 NW: 0

24H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 32.7 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 33.6 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
CANDICE NO LONGER DISPLAYS DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR ITS CENTER.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE
STRUCTURE IS CLEARLY ELONGATED. THE LATEST MODEL ANALYSES AND LAST
NIGHT'S AMSR2 WIND ESTIMATES STILL SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF 35-40KT
WINDS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AS A RESULT, CANDICE
HAS BEEN ANALYZED AS A 40KT POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 6Z.

CANDICE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY TOMORROW
SUNDAY, BLOCKED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH. IN
AN ENVIRONMENT NOW UNFAVORABLE FROM EVERY POINT OF VIEW, CANDICE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD BLEND INTO A SURFACE TROUGH BY MONDAY.

NO IMPACT ON INHABITED LAND.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=

WTXS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 006    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z --- NEAR 28.6S 60.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.6S 60.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 30.9S 59.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 29.2S 60.2E.
27JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
539 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED,
RAGGED, WEAK, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS STRIPPED OF DEEP
CONVECTION. TC 08S HAS UNRAVELED AND DISSIPATED UNDER STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270600Z IS 998 MB. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 12 FEET.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) 
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN