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WTPS31 PGTW 060300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 161.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 22 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 161.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 17.1S 158.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 18.1S 155.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 18.7S 153.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 18.9S 151.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 18.6S 147.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 160.5W. 06FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 682 NM WEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 060300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.6S 161.3W INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 682 NM WEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DIMINISHED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLC. A 060013Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES, WITH THE LLC LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CORE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND THE AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KTS AND IS HEDGED JUST BELOW THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES, BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS PHFO: T3.0 - 45 KTS NFFN: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 052020Z CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 052340Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 10P WILL TURN EASTWARD TO EAST- NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TAHITI AS THE NER REORIENTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SST VALUES (30-31 C). AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-35 KTS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 80 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE 051800Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SIMILAR SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AND SUPPORT THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 15 KT SPREAD IN PEAK INTENSITY VALUES, WITH COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM VERSION) INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KTS AT TAU 24. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-06 10:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS11 NFFN 060600 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 060749 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE NAT CATEGORY 1 CENTRE 987HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 158.7W AT 060600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING ONTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SUPPOSED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES. CYCLONE STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDS DT = 3.0, PT AGREE WITH MET = 3.0, MEANWHILE, FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 17.2S 156.0W MOV ESE AT 15 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 18.1S 153.8W MOV ESE AT 13 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 18.7S 152.0W MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 18.8S 150.1W MOV ESE AT 11 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE NAT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 061400 UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 am February 6 1 16.0S 158.7W 110 +6hr 12 pm February 6 1 16.7S 157.2W 140 +12hr 6 pm February 6 1 17.2S 156.0W 165 +18hr 12 am February 7 1 17.8S 154.7W 195 +24hr 6 am February 7 1 18.1S 153.8W 220 +36hr 6 pm February 7 1 18.7S 152.0W 280 +48hr 6 am February 8 1 18.8S 150.1W 345 +60hr 6 pm February 8 1 18.7S 147.9W 430 +72hr 6 am February 9 1 18.9S 145.1W 520 最后于 2024-02-06 15:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS31 PGTW 060900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 15.9S 159.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 159.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 17.4S 156.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 18.3S 153.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 18.5S 152.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 18.6S 150.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 158.7W. 06FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM WEST OF BORA BORA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060600Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 060900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.9S 159.4W INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 435 NM WEST OF BORA BORA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENT ZONE THAT IS FAST APPROACHING THE STRONG WESTERLIES AS EVIDENCED BY TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG THE OUTFLOW CIRRUS TO THE SOUTH. THE COLD DENSE OVERCAST HAS DEEPENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, PUNCTUATED BY OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD TRACING INTO AN OBSCURED CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGGREGATE AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR CONVECTIVE IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG VWS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 060540Z CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 060540Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 20-30 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC NAT WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY, AT BEST, UP TO TAU 12. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AT THE LOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48 POSSIBLY SOONER. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 64NM BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EARLIER DISSIPATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-06 16:40:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“纳特”向东偏南方向移动
时 间：6日14时（北京时）
海 域：南太平洋
命 名：“纳特”，NAT
中心位置：南纬16.0度、西经158.7度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：988百帕
参考位置：萨摩亚阿皮亚偏东方向约1420公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“纳特”由6级加强到9级
预报结论：“纳特”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向东偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年02月06日14时00分）
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WTPS11 NFFN 061200 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 061355 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE NAT CENTRE 989HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 156.5W AT 061200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 24 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT CONVECTION AROUND SUPPOSED LLCC HAS GRADUALLY IMPROVED WITH PERSISTENT PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING ONTO THE SYSTEM. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES. CYCLONE STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.8 WRAP YIELDS DT = 3.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 18.3S 153.8W MOV ESE AT 13 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 18.9S 151.7W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 19.0S 150.1W MOV E AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 18.9S 148.0W MOV E AT 12 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE TTHE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON NAT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 062000 UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 12 pm February 6 2 17.1S 156.5W 95 +6hr 6 pm February 6 2 17.8S 155.0W 120 +12hr 12 am February 7 2 18.3S 153.8W 150 +18hr 6 am February 7 2 18.7S 152.5W 175 +24hr 12 pm February 7 2 18.9S 151.7W 205 +36hr 12 am February 8 2 19.0S 150.1W 265 +48hr 12 pm February 8 2 18.9S 148.0W 325 +60hr 12 am February 9 1 19.1S 145.3W 410 +72hr 12 pm February 9 1 20.2S 142.1W 500 最后于 2024-02-07 04:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS11 NFFN 061800 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 061937 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE NAT CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 154.9W AT 061800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT CONVECTION AROUND SUPPOSED LLCC HAS GRADUALLY IMPROVED WITH PERSISTENT PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING ONTO THE SYSTEM. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES. CYCLONE STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.8 WRAP YIELDS DT = 3.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 18.9S 152.5W MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 19.1S 150.7W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 18.9S 148.9W MOV E AT 10 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 18.9S 146.4W MOV E AT 10 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE TTHE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON NAT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 070200 UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 pm February 6 2 18.0S 154.9W 110 +6hr 12 am February 7 2 18.6S 153.5W 140 +12hr 6 am February 7 2 18.9S 152.5W 165 +18hr 12 pm February 7 2 19.1S 151.5W 195 +24hr 6 pm February 7 2 19.1S 150.7W 220 +36hr 6 am February 8 2 18.9S 148.9W 280 +48hr 6 pm February 8 2 18.9S 146.4W 345 +60hr 6 am February 9 1 19.6S 143.1W 430 +72hr 6 pm February 9 1 21.2S 139.6W 520 -
WTPS31 PGTW 062100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 17.4S 155.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 155.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 18.1S 153.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 18.4S 151.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 18.2S 149.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.2S 146.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 155.4W. 06FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM WEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 062100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.4S 155.9W INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 361 NM WEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLC. A FORTUITOUS 061901Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS A BROAD CENTER WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS. THERE IS NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THEREFORE THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE HEDGED BELOW THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES IN CONSIDERATION OF THE RECENT ASCAT DATA AND THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS NFFN: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 061940Z CIMSS DPRINT: 47 KTS AT 062000Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HIGH VWS (20-25 KTS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 130 NM TO 170 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 48. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SPREAD. GENERALLY, SEVERAL OF THE MODELS INDICATE A REINTENSIFICATION PHASE AFTER TAU 60, WITH HAFS-A SHOWING A PEAK OF 58 KNOTS AT TAU 60. THIS REINTENSIFICATION PHASE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL LOW, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 72. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-07 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS11 NFFN 070000 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 070121 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE NAT CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 154.9W AT 070000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EASTERN QUADRANT AS CYCLONE RAPIDLY WEAKENS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM. DVORAK CONSTRAINTS BROKEN DUE TO GOOD ASCAT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING 35KT WINDS AROUND THE CENTER. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES. CYCLONE STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS DT = 2.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 18.6S 152.7W MOV ESE AT 11 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 18.6S 151.0W MOV E AT 09 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 18.6S 148.9W MOV E AT 10 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 19.0S 145.8W MOV E AT 11 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE TTHE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON NAT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 0708000 UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 12 am February 7 1 18.0S 154.9W 75 +6hr 6 am February 7 1 18.4S 153.6W 100 +12hr 12 pm February 7 tropical low 18.6S 152.7W 130 +18hr 6 pm February 7 tropical low 18.7S 151.9W 155 +24hr 12 am February 8 tropical low 18.6S 151.0W 185 +36hr 12 pm February 8 tropical low 18.6S 148.9W 245 +48hr 12 am February 9 tropical low 19.0S 145.8W 305 +60hr 12 pm February 9 tropical low 20.4S 142.2W 395 +72hr 12 am February 10 tropical low 23.1S 138.8W 480 最后于 2024-02-07 09:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
