C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.2S
175.0W, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NADI. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE, GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE
FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 022343Z GMI 89GHZ
SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION WITH
CURVED LOW-LEVEL FORMATIVE CLOUD BANDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH
(20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND HIGH (29-30 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MAKE A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AT TAU 36. FOR
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST
AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED SUBTROPICAL AREA IN PARA. 2.C.
(1).

ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZFEB2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.8S 174.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 172.2W, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
REMAINS RATHER BROAD, IT IS CONSOLIDATING QUICKLY, PRIMARILY FOCUSED 
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTION HAS 
PERSISTED OVER AND NORTH OF THE PERCEIVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC), ENHANCED BY A LINE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A 040000Z PHASE 
CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEET SHOWED RESULTS OF INVEST 95P BEING MORE 
TROPICAL IN NATURE, WHICH IS VALIDATED BY THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PROVE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT (AIDED BY A 
POINT SOURCE TO THE NORTHEAST), LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). 
GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT GFS WITH ITS USUAL 
FORWARD LEANING CALCULATIONS HAS INITIALIZED THE BEST CONCERNING 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES INVEST 
95P WILL CONTINUE ON A EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR-TERM, THEN 
QUICKLY FLATTEN OUT TO A EASTWARD TRACK, REMAINING SOUTH OF AMERICAN 
SAMOA, THEN BY TAU 24 MAKE AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TURN GENERALLY 
TOWARDS FRENCH POLYNESIA. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER 
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST OF AMERICAN SAMOA 
AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM 
STRUGGLING TO GET PAST 25 KNOTS WITH A PEAK OF 30KTS. THOUGH INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE DOES NOT LIKE THE SYSTEM AS MUCH, IT IS STILL A SLEEPER THAT 
SHOULD NOT BE OVER LOOKED WITH IT BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SPCZ. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS TRANSITIONED TO A 
TROPICAL SYSTEM. REFER TO PARA. 2.B.(1) FOR MORE INFORMATION.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
NNNN

WTPS11 NFFN 050000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 050104 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 168.1W
AT 050000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  TD06F SLOW MOVING.  MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANIZATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED FROM THE PAST 6
HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN THE AREA OF LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3
WRAP YEILDS DT=2.0, PAT AND MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YEILDS
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 15.2S 165.0W MOV ESE AT 13 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 16.2S 162.3W MOV ESE AT 14 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 17.8S 159.6W MOV ESE AT 13 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 19.0S 157.7W MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 0820 UTC.

WTPS21 PGTW 050530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4S 168.3W TO 16.1S 161.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5S 168.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.2S 172.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 168.0W, APPROXIMATELY 177 NM EAST 
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) AND A 050109Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATED 
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION OVER ITS CENTER AND 
FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING 
TOWARDS ITS CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PROVE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM 
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE 
ON THE TRACK OF INVEST 95P CONTINUING TO FLATTEN OUT AND MAKE AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TURN, GENERALLY TOWARDS FRENCH POLYNESIA WITH GRADUAL 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A 
CLEAR AGREEANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS ON THE SYSTEM GETTING UP TO 35 
KNOTS THEN A SPLIT AROUND TAU 60 WITH SOME SHOWING A STEEP DECLINE AND 
OTHERS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
060530Z.//
NNNN

ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050521ZFEB2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.2S 172.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 168.0W, APPROXIMATELY 177 NM EAST 
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) AND A 050109Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATED 
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION OVER ITS CENTER AND 
FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING 
TOWARDS ITS CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PROVE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM 
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE 
ON THE TRACK OF INVEST 95P CONTINUING TO FLATTEN OUT AND MAKE AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TURN, GENERALLY TOWARDS FRENCH POLYNESIA WITH GRADUAL 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A 
CLEAR AGREEANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS ON THE SYSTEM GETTING UP TO 35 
KNOTS THEN A SPLIT AROUND TAU 60 WITH SOME SHOWING A STEEP DECLINE AND 
OTHERS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 050530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

WTPS11 NFFN 050600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 050808 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 167.2W
AT 050600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD06F MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 9
KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED FROM THE PAST 6 HOURS.
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AREA OF LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 WRAP
YEILDS DT=2.0, PT AND MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YEILDS
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST-SOUTHEAST
WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC 15.4S 163.9W MOV ESE AT 17 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 16.8S 160.6W MOV SES AT 17 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 18.4S 157.9W MOV ESE AT 16 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 19.4S 156.0W MOV ESE AT 15 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F
WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 1400UTC.

WTPS11 NFFN 051200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 051358 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 165.6W
AT 051200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES WITH EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  TD06F MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS. 
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30
KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTHEAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC WITH
ORGANIZATION SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING TOWARDS THE SYSTEM CENTER. SYSTEM
LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
0.45 WRAP YEILDS DT = 2.5, PT AGREE WITH MET = 2.0, MEANWHILE, FT
BASED ON PT THUS YEILDS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 15.5S 162.2W MOV ESE AT 18 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 16.9S 159.1W MOV ESE AT 15 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 18.2S 156.7W MOV ESE AT 11 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 18.8S 155.0W MOV E AT 07 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 200000 UTC.

WTPS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z --- NEAR 14.7S 164.9W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 164.9W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 15.6S 161.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 17.4S 158.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 18.9S 156.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 19.4S 154.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 19.3S 150.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 164.1W.
05FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 338 NM
EAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051200Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 16 FEET. 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN

WDPS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 
001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.7S 164.9W
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 338 NM EAST OF PAGO PAGO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (TEN) HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AFTER PASSING CLOSE TO THE
ISLANDS OF AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE REACHED AN
INITIAL PEAK ABOUT 3-4 HOURS AGO, WHEN DEEP CONVECTION WITH
OVERSHOOTING TOPS APPROACHING -91C DEVELOPED NEAR THE ASSESSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
HOWEVER, THE EIR LOOP DEPICTS A MUCH MORE DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE, WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. A 051143 GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A SHEARED SYSTEM, WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZED IN
A COMMA-SHAPED REGION TO THE EAST OF LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES,
WHICH ARE EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE AREA. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
ANALYSIS OF THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY NOTED ABOVE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE T2.5 (35
KNOTS) DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PHFO.
ADDITIONALLY, A 050916Z METOP-C ASCAT ULTRA-HIGH RESOLUTION (UHR)
PASS REVEALED 35-37 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE
SYSTEM, WHICH PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE WIND RADII
ASSESSMENT. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KTS) VWS, WARM
SSTS, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 10P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TURNING ONTO A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK BY TAU 12 AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AS THE
GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE STR STRENGTHENS. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, BEFORE THE
TRACK FLATTENS OUT AS THE STEERING LEVEL LOWERS AND THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
COOK ISLANDS THROUGH TAU 36, THEN APPROACHES TAHITI FROM THE SOUTH
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE NEAR-TERM, THE VERY STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, IS EXPECTED TO OFFSET INCREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY UP TO A MAXIMUM OF 40-45 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY CHANGE AFTER TAU 18, WITH
SHEAR FORECAST TO INCREASE SHARPLY TO ABOVE 30 KNOTS WITH EVEN
HIGHER MID-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES, WHICH WILL QUICKLY DECAPITATE THE
SYSTEM, LEADING TO RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72, BUT LIKELY WILL DISSIPATE BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA AT OR BEFORE TAU 60. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AFTER THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE, IT MAY RESTRENGTHEN AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 96.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU
36, THEN FLATTEN OUT TO A MORE EASTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER.
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD REACHES 155NM AT TAU 72 AND THE JTWC FORECAST
LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE (BOTH NAVGEM
AND GFS) WHICH APPEARS TO BE UNREALISTICALLY HIGH, PEAKING THE
SYSTEM AT NEAR 60 KNOTS AT TAU 48. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGE SHOWS A PEAK BETWEEN 45-50 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36,
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACKS BELOW THE CONSENSUS MEAN WHICH IS BEING PULLED TOO HIGH BY
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE, AND BREAKS FROM THE GUIDANCE IN DISSIPATING THE
SYSTEM BY TAU 72, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS A REINTENSIFICATION BEGINNING AROUND TAU 72, BUT ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THIS IS DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
NNNN

NWPS01 NFFN 051800

Tropical Cyclone Naming Bulletin ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 051904

UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD 06F LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 163.6W AT 051800UTC HAS

BEEN NAMED NAT.

WTPS11 NFFN 051800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 052007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 163.6W AT
051800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
15 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS AT 061800UTC.

CONVECTION PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING ONTO SUPPOSED LLCC
FROM NORTHEAST. ORGANIZATION IMPROVED LAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES. CYCLONE STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST
WITH SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF NEAR-EQUITORIAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YEILDS DT = 3.0, PT AGREE WITH MET
= 3.0, MEANWHILE, FT BASED ON DT THUS YEILDS T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 16.7S 160.1W MOV ESE AT 18 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 18.2S 157.4W MOV ESE AT 17 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 19.1S 155.5W MOV ESE AT 14 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 19.3S 154.0W MOV ESE AT 14 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 060200 UTC.