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WTPS31 PGTW 062100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 17.4S 155.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 155.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 18.1S 153.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 18.4S 151.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 18.2S 149.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.2S 146.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 155.4W. 06FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM WEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 062100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.4S 155.9W INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 361 NM WEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLC. A FORTUITOUS 061901Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS A BROAD CENTER WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS. THERE IS NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THEREFORE THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE HEDGED BELOW THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES IN CONSIDERATION OF THE RECENT ASCAT DATA AND THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS NFFN: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 061940Z CIMSS DPRINT: 47 KTS AT 062000Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HIGH VWS (20-25 KTS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 130 NM TO 170 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 48. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SPREAD. GENERALLY, SEVERAL OF THE MODELS INDICATE A REINTENSIFICATION PHASE AFTER TAU 60, WITH HAFS-A SHOWING A PEAK OF 58 KNOTS AT TAU 60. THIS REINTENSIFICATION PHASE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL LOW, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 72. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-07 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS11 NFFN 070000 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 070121 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE NAT CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 154.9W AT 070000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EASTERN QUADRANT AS CYCLONE RAPIDLY WEAKENS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM. DVORAK CONSTRAINTS BROKEN DUE TO GOOD ASCAT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING 35KT WINDS AROUND THE CENTER. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES. CYCLONE STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS DT = 2.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 18.6S 152.7W MOV ESE AT 11 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 18.6S 151.0W MOV E AT 09 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 18.6S 148.9W MOV E AT 10 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 19.0S 145.8W MOV E AT 11 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE TTHE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON NAT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 0708000 UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 12 am February 7 1 18.0S 154.9W 75 +6hr 6 am February 7 1 18.4S 153.6W 100 +12hr 12 pm February 7 tropical low 18.6S 152.7W 130 +18hr 6 pm February 7 tropical low 18.7S 151.9W 155 +24hr 12 am February 8 tropical low 18.6S 151.0W 185 +36hr 12 pm February 8 tropical low 18.6S 148.9W 245 +48hr 12 am February 9 tropical low 19.0S 145.8W 305 +60hr 12 pm February 9 tropical low 20.4S 142.2W 395 +72hr 12 am February 10 tropical low 23.1S 138.8W 480 最后于 2024-02-07 09:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTPS11 NFFN 070600 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 070711 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE NAT CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 153.0W AT 070600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT LOW LEVEL CENTRE EXPOSED WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EASTERN QUADRANT AS CYCLONE RAPIDLY WEAKENS. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES. CYCLONE STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. CI HELD DUE TO INITIAL WEAKENING. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS DT = 2.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 19.1S 151.2W MOV E AT 09 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 19.1S 149.4W MOV E AT 09 KT WITH 25 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 19.4S 147.0W MOV E AT 09 KT WITH 25 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 20.3S 144.0W MOV E AT 11 KT WITH 25 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON NAT.
WTPS11 NFFN 070600 CCA TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 070752 UTC. *****CORRECTION TO DVORAK AND NEXT ISSUE TIME***** TROPICAL CYCLONE NAT CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 153.0W AT 070600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT LOW LEVEL CENTRE EXPOSED WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EASTERN QUADRANT AS CYCLONE RAPIDLY WEAKENS. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES. CYCLONE STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. CI HELD DUE TO INITIAL WEAKENING. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS DT = 2.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 19.1S 151.2W MOV E AT 09 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 19.1S 149.4W MOV E AT 09 KT WITH 25 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 19.4S 147.0W MOV E AT 09 KT WITH 25 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 20.3S 144.0W MOV E AT 11 KT WITH 25 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON NAT WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 071400UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 am February 7 1 18.8S 153.0W 110 +6hr 12 pm February 7 tropical low 19.1S 151.9W 140 +12hr 6 pm February 7 tropical low 19.1S 151.2W 165 +18hr 12 am February 8 tropical low 19.1S 150.4W 195 +24hr 6 am February 8 tropical low 19.1S 149.4W 220 +36hr 6 pm February 8 tropical low 19.4S 147.0W 280 +48hr 6 am February 9 tropical low 20.3S 144.0W 345 +60hr 6 pm February 9 tropical low 22.1S 140.9W 430 +72hr 6 am February 10 tropical low 24.7S 138.4W 520 最后于 2024-02-07 16:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS31 PGTW 070900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 152.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 152.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 19.2S 150.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 19.2S 149.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 19.2S 146.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 152.2W. 07FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 070900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.7S 152.7W INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 191 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEEDER BANDS TRACKING SOUTH OF THE FRENCH POLYNESIAN ISLANDS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) IS PARTLY EXPOSED WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION SHEARED EASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED LLC FEATURE IN THE 070409Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AT THE LOW LEVELS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 070540Z CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 070540Z CIMSS DPRINT: 35 KTS AT 070600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC NAT WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER TO THE NORTH. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT BEST BEFORE VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL DOMINATE AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 36, POSSIBLY SOONER. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN SPREAD TO 107NM BY TAU 36, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EARLIER DISSIPATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-07 16:10:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“纳特”向偏东方向移动
时 间：7日14时（北京时）
海 域：南太平洋
命 名：“纳特”，NAT
中心位置：南纬18.7度、西经152.7度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：8级（18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：995百帕
参考位置：萨摩亚阿皮亚东偏南方向约2100公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“纳特”由9级减弱到8级
预报结论：“纳特”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向偏东方向缓慢移动，强度逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年02月07日14时00分）
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WTPS11 NFFN 071500 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 071500 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE NAT CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0S 150.6W AT 071200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 23 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS. EXPECT ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT. CONVECTION SHOWING IMPROVED ORGANISATION OVER SUPPOSED LLCC WITH PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WESTERN FLANK. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKENS WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE IN AN AREA OF HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES. CYCLONE STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. CI HELD DUE TO INITIAL WEAKENING. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS DT = 2.5 WITH PT AGREEING AND MET = 3.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 19.3S 148.8W MOV E AT 15 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 19.4S 146.8W MOV E AT 11 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 19.7S 144.2W MOV E AT 15 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 20.8S 140.8W MOV ESE AT 18 KT WITH 25 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON NAT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 0720000 UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 12 pm February 7 1 19.0S 150.6W 110 +6hr 6 pm February 7 1 19.2S 149.6W 140 +12hr 12 am February 8 tropical low 19.3S 148.8W 165 +18hr 6 am February 8 tropical low 19.3S 147.9W 195 +24hr 12 pm February 8 tropical low 19.4S 146.8W 220 +36hr 12 am February 9 tropical low 19.7S 144.2W 280 +48hr 12 pm February 9 tropical low 20.8S 140.8W 345 +60hr 12 am February 10 tropical low 23.0S 137.5W 430 +72hr 12 pm February 10 tropical low 25.9S 134.7W 520 最后于 2024-02-08 04:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTPS31 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 151.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 151.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 19.4S 150.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 19.4S 147.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 20.0S 144.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 151.2W. 07FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.5S 151.5W INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 162 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (NAT) HAVING COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, LEAVING A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. EXTENSIVE SHALLOW BANDING IS OBSERVED WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC UP TO 250NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE (29-30C). HOWEVER, POOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED AN EXPOSED LLCC OBSERVABLE IN A 171820 GOES-W VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 071620Z SMOS WINDSPEED IMAGE AND THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMOS DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS PHFO: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 071740Z CIMSS AIDT: 41 KTS AT 072010Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 30+ KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 10P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST INTERVAL AS IT EXPERIENCES STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST (TAU 00) AND SOUTH (TAU 24). THE INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS TC 10P AT CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24, AND THEN GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER TO 50KTS BY TAU 36. ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEMS STRUCTURE AND ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS IN GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND TC PHASE DIAGRAMS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONING TO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR TAU 24, HAVING FULLY COMPLETED SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. THIS IS CHARACTERIZED, IN THIS INSTANCE, AS HAVING A WEAK TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, PROMINENT COLD AIR ADVECTION (POLEWARD) AND WARM AIR ADVECTION (EQUATORWARD), AND GROWING SUBSTANTIALLY ASYMMETRIC AND SHALLOW BY TAU 36. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT THAT TC 10P WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST INTERVAL, SHOWING A TIGHT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 37NM BY TAU 36. INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, SUGGESTS TC 10P WILL PERSIST AT NEAR 45KTS INTENSITY AND EVENTUALLY (NEAR TAU 24) EXPERIENCE SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION TO TAU 36. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 36 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 36 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-08 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS11 NFFN 071800 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 072050 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE NAT CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3S 151.5W AT 071800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING AND MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT. CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLIY DECREASED WITH LLCC EXPOSED. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKENS WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE. NAT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO HIGH SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES. CI HELD DUE TO INITIAL WEAKENING. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS DT = 2.5 WITH PT AGREEING AND MET = 3.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 19.2S 150.1W MOV E AT 7 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 19.3S 147.5W MOV E AT 9 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 20.0S 143.6W MOV E AT 12 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 21.9S 139.6W MOV ESE AT 14 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED ON TC NAT.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 pm February 7 1 19.3S 151.5W 55 +6hr 12 am February 8 tropical low 19.4S 150.9W 30 +12hr 6 am February 8 tropical low 19.2S 150.1W 55 +18hr 12 pm February 8 tropical low 19.1S 149.1W 85 +24hr 6 pm February 8 tropical low 19.3S 147.5W 110 +36hr 6 am February 9 tropical low 20.0S 143.6W 170 +48hr 6 pm February 9 tropical low 21.9S 139.6W 230 +60hr 6 am February 10 tropical low 24.7S 136.7W 320 +72hr 6 pm February 10 tropical low 26.9S 135.3W 405 最后于 2024-02-08 04:55:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：
