WTPS11 NFFN 072100
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 072246 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F [EX TC NAT] CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.2S 151.4W AT 072100UTC.  
POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GOES VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
REPORTS.  CYCLONE WEAKENING AND MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30
KNOTS.  

CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLIY DECREASED WITH LLCC EXPOSED. SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO WEAKENS WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SYSTEM LIES
IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE.
TD06F CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO HIGH SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 28
DEGREES. LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWS AREAS OF GALES AWAY FROM THE CENTER
OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADANT.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS DT = 2.5 WITH PT AND
MET AGREEING AT 2.5. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS.


THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED ON EX TC
NAT.

WDPS31 PGTW 072100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT)
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.5S 151.5W
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 162 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 10P (NAT) HAVING COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT, LEAVING A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. EXTENSIVE SHALLOW BANDING IS
OBSERVED WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC UP TO 250NM TO THE SOUTHWEST.  SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE (29-30C).
HOWEVER, POOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT ANY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED AN EXPOSED LLCC
OBSERVABLE IN A 171820 GOES-W VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
071620Z SMOS WINDSPEED IMAGE AND THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMOS DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STR TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   PHFO: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 071740Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 41 KTS AT 072010Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: PREVIOUSLY, TC 10P WAS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE AS A TC OVER WATER. THE CURRENT FORECAST CHANGES THIS
PHILOSOPHY TO A SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINNING NEAR TAU 24,
COMPLETING TRANSITION NOT LATER THAN TAU 36. THE FORECAST INTENSITY
HAS ALSO BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHIFT IN
PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 10P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST INTERVAL AS IT EXPERIENCES STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
TO THE SOUTHWEST (TAU 00) AND SOUTH (TAU 24). THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HOLDS TC 10P AT CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24, AND THEN
GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER TO 50KTS BY TAU 36. ANALYSIS OF THE
SYSTEMS STRUCTURE AND ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS IN GLOBAL NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE AND TC PHASE DIAGRAMS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONING TO A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR TAU 24, HAVING FULLY COMPLETED SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 36. THIS IS CHARACTERIZED, IN THIS INSTANCE, AS
HAVING A WEAK TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, PROMINENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION (POLEWARD) AND WARM AIR ADVECTION (EQUATORWARD), AND
GROWING SUBSTANTIALLY ASYMMETRIC AND SHALLOW BY TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL
AGREEMENT THAT TC 10P WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
INTERVAL, SHOWING A TIGHT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 37NM BY TAU
36. INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, SUGGESTS TC 10P
WILL PERSIST AT NEAR 45KTS INTENSITY AND EVENTUALLY (NEAR TAU 24)
EXPERIENCE SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION TO TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
FULLY SUBTROPICAL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 36 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 36 HR: MEDIUM
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED INFORMATION IN SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST CHANGES.//
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全球热带气旋监测公报

WTPS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 008    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z --- NEAR 19.4S 150.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 150.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 19.7S 147.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 149.2W.
08FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM
SOUTH OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND 
SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A WELL-ORGANIZED 
AND EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVING EASTWARD TO THE 
SOUTH OF TAHITI. THE LATEST IMAGERY SHOWS A BURST OF CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION, 
ALONG A LINE OF CONVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS AREA OF 
CONVECTION AND THE ASSOCIATED CIRRUS BLOWOFF ARE DRIFTING OVER THE 
LLCC BUT REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND ARE NOT REFLECTIVE OF ANY CONVECTIVE 
REORGANIZATION. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE 
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE THIS 
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, BEFORE EVENTUALLY DIVING SOUTHWARD 
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS AND DRY MID AND 
UPPER-LEVEL AIR OFFSETTING OTHERWISE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. BASED 
ON A MANUAL PHASE WORKSHEET, THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEGUN TRANSITION 
TO A SUBTROPICAL LOW, HAVING CHARACTERISTICS OF BOTH A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE AND EXTRATROPICAL LOW. RAPID TRANSITION TO A GALE-FORCE 
SUBTROPICAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WHILE THE 
SYSTEM UNDERGOES THIS TRANSITION, IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, AS IT 
TAPS INTO THE STRONG SURFACE FLUXES FROM THE WARM SEA SURFACE, AND 
ALSO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF INCREASED BAROCLINIC FORCING FROM INTERACTIONS 
WITH THE STRONG 200MB JET MAX MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR 
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 17 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P 
(OSAI) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR 12-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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全球热带气旋监测公报

ABPW10 PGTW 082300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/082300Z-090600ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080751ZFEB2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081352ZFEB2024//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081951ZFEB2024//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNINGS. REF C IS A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08FEB24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 19.4S 150.0W, APPROXIMATELY 116 NM SOUTH OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, AND 
HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 080900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 08FEB24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 18.2S 163.4W, APPROXIMATELY 272 NM NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, AND 
HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS32 PGTW 081500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON 
THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) AT 08FEB24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.6S 163.8E, APPROXIMATELY 288 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, 
VANUATU, AND HAD TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPS33 PGTW 082100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 10P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
19.4S 147.5W, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI. 
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, 
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE 
CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WARM 
CORE ASSYMETRIC SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE 
SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), 
TYPICAL OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. A 081921Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS 
REVEALS WINDS OF UP TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
TROPICAL TRANSITION DEFINED BY A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BEING 
ADVECTED OVER THE CIRCULATION, STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT, AND HIGH 
(GREATER THAN 30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 10P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A 
BROAD AND ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 37 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET 
WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO 
LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR TRANSITION 
INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN 2.C.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN

ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZFEB2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 10FEB24 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.1S 168.4E, APPROXIMATELY 36 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, AND 
HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTPS33 PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS 10P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.4S 147.5W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
NNNN